基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型的黄河流域碳储量时空变化研究

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杨洁^1,,
谢保鹏²,
张德罡^1,,
1.甘肃农业大学草业学院兰州 730070
2.甘肃农业大学管理学院兰州 730070
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2016YFC0501902
甘肃省教育厅高校科研项目2018A-038

详细信息

作者简介:杨洁, 主要从事草地生态系统服务研究。E-mail:405899577@qq.com

通讯作者:张德罡, 主要从事草原资源与生态、草地土壤研究。E-mail:zhangdg@gsau.edu.cn

中图分类号:F124.5;X24

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-09-14
录用日期:2020-12-07
网络出版日期:2021-06-22
刊出日期:2021-06-01

Spatio-temporal evolution of carbon stocks in the Yellow River Basin based on InVEST and CA-Markov models

YANG Jie^1,,
XIE Baopeng²,
ZHANG Degang^1,,
1. College of Pratacultural Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Funds: the National Key R & D Program of China2016YFC0501902
the Scientific Research Projects of Gansu Provincial Department of Education2018A-038

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Corresponding author:ZHANG Degang, E-mail:zhangdg@gsau.edu.cn

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摘要
摘要:区域土地利用/覆被变化是导致生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因，预测未来土地利用/覆盖变化及其对碳储量的影响对区域陆地生态系统的认识具有重要意义。本研究基于黄河流域2005—2018年土地利用/覆被变化规律，运用CA-Markov模型分别预测了生态保护情景（EVC）和自然变化情景（NVC）下的土地利用/覆被空间格局，采用修正后的碳密度，运用InVEST模型评估黄河流域2005—2030年6期碳储量。结果表明：2005—2018年黄河流域林地、水域和建设用地面积持续增加，耕地、草地和未利用土地面积减少，13 a间全流域碳储量减少28.734×10⁶t。与自然变化情景相比，在生态保护情景下2030年草地和耕地相比2018年减少幅度较小，建设用地规模扩大得到了限制，产生了生态效应。2030年，自然变化情景和生态保护情景下的碳储量较2018年分别减少258.863×10⁶t和30.813×10⁶t，生态保护情景下土地利用覆被格局固碳能力高于自然变化情景，该研究可为黄河流域土地利用结构调整和土地利用管理决策提供科学依据。
关键词:土地利用/覆被变化/
碳储量/
CA-Markov模型/
InVEST模型/
生态保护情景/
黄河流域
Abstract:The Yellow River Basin is an important carbon sink and carbon stock area of terrestrial ecosystems in China, and land use/cover change is the primary reason for variation in the carbon stocks. Therefore, accurately predicting future land use/cover changes and their impacts on regional carbon stocks is important for a better understanding of regional terrestrial ecosystems. This study aimed to explore the law of spatio-temporal changes in land use in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2018 and to predict the characteristics of carbon stock changes under two scenarios of ecological protection and natural change in 2030. The CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use/cover spatial pattern in two scenarios:the ecological conservation scenario and the natural change scenario, based on its law in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2018. The InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon stock in six phases of the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2030 based on the revised carbon density. The results highlighted land use change and transition among land use types. From 2005 to 2018, the areas of forest, water, and built-up land in the Yellow River Basin continued to increase, but the areas of cropland, grassland, and unused land decreased. The main transfer characteristics of land use types were from cropland to built-up land and grassland, and from cropland and grassland to forest. During the 13 years, the carbon stock of the whole basin decreased by 28.734×10⁶t. The simulation results of land use changes under two scenarios with the CA-Markov model showed that compared with the natural change scenario, the ecological protection scenario led to reductions in grassland and cropland in 2030, which was less than that in 2018. The expansion of built-up land was restricted under the ecological scenario, and the scale of expansion was substantially reduced, both of which facilitated the generation of ecological effects in the Yellow River Basin. Furthermore, in 2030, the carbon stocks under the natural change scenario and the ecological protection scenario were reduced by 258.863×10⁶t and 30.813×10⁶t, respectively, compared with 2018. This study provides a scientific basis for adjusting the land use structure and land use management decision-making, improving the regional carbon stock capacity, and promoting ecological civilization construction in the Yellow River Basin.
Key words:Land use/over change/
Carbon stock/
CA-Markov model/
InVEST model/
Ecological protection scenario/
Yellow River Basin

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图12030年自然变化情景(a)与生态保护情景(b)下黄河流域土地利用格局图
Figure1.Land use patterns under natural variation scenario (a) and ecological protection scenario (b) in the Yellow River basin in 2030

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图22018—2030年自然变化情景(a)和生态保护情景(b)下土地利用类型转移矩阵(km²)
Figure2.Transfer matrixes of land use types under natural change scenarios (a) and ecological protection scenarios (b) in the Yellow River Basin from 2018 to 2030 (km²)

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图32005年、2010年、2015年、2018年及自然变化情景(NVC)和生态保护情景(EVC)下2030年黄河流域碳储量空间格局分布图(10³ t?hm^?2)
Figure3.Spatial distribution of carbon stock in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018, and in 2030 under natural change scenario (NVC) and ecological protection scenario (EVC) in the Yellow River Basin (10³ t?hm^?2)

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表1不同土地利用类型各部分的碳密度
Table1.Carbon densities of various parts of different land use types ?t?hm^?2

土地利用类型 Land use type	地上碳密度 Above-ground carbon density	地下碳密度 Underground carbon density	土壤碳密度 Soil carbon density	死亡有机物碳密度 Dead organic matter carbon density
耕地Cultivated land	17.0	80.7	108.4	9.82
林地Forest	42.4	115.9	158.8	14.11
草地Grassland	35.3	86.5	99.9	7.28
水域Water	0.3	0	0	0
建设用地Construction land	2.5	27.5	0	0
未利用地Unused land	1.3	0	21.6	0

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表2年降水量和年均温修订的黄河流域不同土地利用类型的碳密度值
Table2.Carbon density values of different land use types in the Yellow River Basin revised by annual precipitation and annualmean temperature ?t?hm^?2

土地利用类型 Land use type	地上碳密度 Above-ground carbon density	地下碳密度 Underground carbon density	土壤碳密度 Soil carbon density	死亡有机物碳密度 Dead organic matter carbon density
耕地Cultivated land	4.94	23.45	31.49	2.84
林地Forest	12.32	33.67	46.14	4.09
草地Grassland	10.26	25.13	29.03	2.19
水域Water	0.09	0	0	0
建设用地Construction land	0.73	7.99	0	0
未利用地Unused land	0.38	0	6.28	0

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表32005—2018年黄河流域各期不同土地利用类型的面积及比例
Table3.Areas and proportions of different land use types in each period from 2005 to 2018 in the Yellow Research Basin

土地利用类型 Land use type	2005		2010		2015		2018		面积变化值 Area change (km²)
土地利用类型 Land use type	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积变化值 Area change (km²)
耕地Cultivated land	218 450	27.05	214 722	26.59	214 084	26.513	212 474	26.31	–5976
林地Forest	103 505	12.82	105 788	13.10	106 089	13.138	106 185	13.15	2680
草地Grassland	380 888	47.17	378 779	46.91	379 067	46.945	378 047	46.82	–2841
水域Water	13 615	1.69	13 941	1.73	14 005	1.734	14 308	1.77	693
建设用地Construction land	18 626	2.31	20 005	2.48	20 670	2.560	24 375	3.02	5749
未利用地Unused land	72 383	8.96	74 231	9.19	73 552	9.109	72 078	8.93	–305

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表42030年自然变化情景(NVC)和生态保护情景(EVC)下不同地类的面积及其与2018年相比的变化
Table4.Areas of different land use types under natural change scenario (NVC) and ecological protection scenario (EVC) in 2030 and their change from 2018 to 2030

土地利用 Land use type	2018		2030				2018—2030年变化 Change from 2018 to 2030
	2018		NVC		EVC		NVC		EVC
	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	比例 Proportion (%)	面积 Area (km²)	变化率 Rate (%)	面积 Area (km²)	变化率 Rate (%)
耕地Cultivated land	212 474	26.31	193 992	24.02	208 306	25.80	–18 482	–8.70	–4168	–1.96
林地Forest	106 185	13.15	111 081	13.76	114 426	14.17	4896	4.61	8241	7.76
草地Grassland	378 047	46.82	349 353	43.27	364 587	45.15	–28 694	–7.59	–13 460	–3.56
水域Water	14 308	1.77	21 429	2.65	18 520	2.29	7121	49.77	4212	29.44
建设用地Construction land	24 375	3.02	53 079	6.57	30 046	3.72	28 704	117.76	5671	23.27
未利用地Unused land	72 078	8.93	78 533	9.73	71 582	8.87	6455	8.96	–496	–0.69

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表52018—2030年自然变化情景(NVC)和生态保护情景(EVC)下土地利用类型转换引起的碳储量变化
Table5.Change of carbon stock caused by land use type conversion under natural change scenario (NVC) and ecological protection scenario (EVC) from 2018 to 2030

土地利用类型转移 Land use type conversion		面积 Area (km²)		碳储量变化 Change in carbon stock (×10⁶ t)		合计 Total (×10⁶ t)
转出Converted from	转为Converted to	NVC	EVC	NVC	EVC	NVC	EVC
耕地Cultivated land	林地Forest	6108	4681	22.32	17.10	–140.85	5.13
	草地Grassland	1499	1109	0.30	0.22
	水域Water	501	464	–3.49	–3.23
	建设用地Construction Land	21 016	531	–128.16	–3.24
	未利用地Unused land	5049	909	–31.83	–5.73
林地Forest	耕地Cultivated land	688	1247	–2.51	–4.56	–148.59	–70.45
	草地Grassland	1043	4168	–3.60	–14.40
	水域Water	6379	3779	–67.71	–40.11
	建设用地Construction land	6312	294	–61.55	–2.87
	未利用地Unused land	460	157	–4.58	–1.56
草地Grassland	耕地Cultivated land	14 479	1877	–2.90	–0.38	16.99	27.14
	林地Forest	13 695	13 424	47.30	46.37
	水域Water	375	405	–2.69	–2.90
	建设用地Construction land	1665	950	–10.49	–5.98
	未利用地Unused land	2190	1532	–14.24	–9.96
水域Water	耕地Cultivated land	53	139	0.37	0.97	1.63	1.89
	林地Forest	73	18	0.77	0.19
	草地Grassland	28	24	0.20	0.17
	建设用地Construction land	152	487	0.13	0.42
	未利用地Unused land	235	205	0.15	0.13
建设用地Construction land	耕地Cultivated land	407	53	2.48	0.32	3.97	0.84
	林地Forest	77	28	0.75	0.27
	草地Grassland	133	59	0.84	0.37
	水域Water	106	122	–0.09	–0.11
	未利用地Unused land	45	98	–0.01	–0.02
未利用地Unused land	耕地Cultivated land	276	291	1.74	1.83	8.3	4.95
	林地Forest	119	29	1.19	0.29
	草地Grassland	847	362	5.51	2.35
	水域Water	268	263	–0.18	–0.17
	建设用地Construction land	205	3123	0.04	0.64
总计Total						–258.86	–30.81

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