庞艳梅^1,,
陈超^{1, 2,,},
徐富贤³,
郭晓艺³
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
2.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
3.四川省农业科学院水稻高粱研究所 德阳 618000
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划重点专项2017YFD0300400
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目SCQXKJQN2020029
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目BROP202016

详细信息

作者简介:庞艳梅, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响评估研究。E-mail:pangyanm@126.com

通讯作者:陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究。E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com

中图分类号:S162.3

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-03-02
录用日期:2020-06-12
刊出日期:2020-11-01

Impact of climate change on potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin

PANG Yanmei^1,,
CHEN Chao^{1, 2,,},
XU Fuxian³,
GUO Xiaoyi³
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China
3. Institute of Rice and Sorghum, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Deyang 618000, China
Funds: the Key Special Project of National Key Research and Development Program of China2017YFD0300400
the Science and Technology Development Foundation of Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceKey Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
the Science and Technology Development Foundation of Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceSCQXKJQN2020029
the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological AdministrationBROP202016

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Corresponding author:CHEN Chao, E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com

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摘要
摘要:基于四川盆地1961—2018年63个气象台站的逐日气象资料和1981—2018年46个农业气象观测站的主要粮食作物（水稻、玉米和冬小麦）生育期资料，利用逐级订正的方法计算作物气候生产潜力，分析太阳辐射、气温、降水及气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响，研究旨在为提高区域农业生产力并保障农业可持续发展提供科学依据。结果显示：1961—2018年四川盆地作物多年平均气候生产潜力的分布为水稻由西向东递增，玉米在盆地北部和西南偏高、其他地区偏低，冬小麦南北高、中部低。辐射量减小对3种作物气候生产潜力的影响为负效应；平均气温升高对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应；降水量变化是作物气候生产潜力变化出现空间差异的主要原因，降水量增加对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应，而降水量减少为负效应。气候变化对水稻气候生产潜力的影响在盆地西南部和北部的部分地区为正效应，其余地区为负效应；气候变化对玉米气候生产潜力的影响在盆地南部和东部的部分地区为正效应，其余地区为负效应；气候变化对冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响在盆地东北部的部分地区为负效应，其余大部地区为正效应。总体来看，气候变化对四川盆地冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响最大，为9.9 kg·hm^-2·a^-1，而对玉米和水稻的影响分别为-1.4 kg·hm^-2·a^-1和0.5 kg·hm^-2·a^-1。为了适应气候变化，四川盆地应选育光合效率高和抗旱性强的作物品种，并加强农田管理，以提高农业生产水平并保障粮食安全。
关键词:气候变化/
主要粮食作物/
气候生产潜力/
四川盆地
Abstract:Potential crop productivity is important for evaluating agricultural climate resources. This study calculated the climatic potential productivity (CPP) of three grain crops (rice, maize, and winter wheat) using meteorological data. Daily measurements from 1961 to 2018 from 63 meteorological stations (Sichuan Basin, China) and crop phenology data from 1981 to 2018 from 46 agricultural meteorological stations were used to analyze productivity. Climatic factors, such as radiation, air temperature, and precipitation, and the effects of climate change were evaluated to provide regionally specific guidance for increasing agricultural productivity and sustainability. The results showed that the rice CPP in the Sichuan Basin increased from west to east between 1961 and 2018, the maize CPP was higher in the north and southwest, and the CPP of winter wheat was higher in the north and south. Reduced radiation negatively affected the CPPs of three crops, and higher temperatures positively affected the crop CPPs. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor, affecting the spatial change of the CPP. Increased precipitation positively affected the crop CPPs, and decreased precipitation negatively affected the CPPs. The impact of climate change on the rice, maize, and winter wheat CPP was variable (positive in some basin areas, but negative in others); the overall effects of climate change on the CPPs were 0.5 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for rice, -1.4 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for maize, and 9.9 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for winter wheat. Improving the selection of photosynthetically-efficient and drought-resistant crop varieties and crop field management are needed for climate change adaptation and to ensure food security.
Key words:Climate change/
Main grain crops/
Climatic potential productivity/
Sichuan Basin

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图1研究区域气象台站的分布
Figure1.Distribution of meteorological stations in the study region


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图21961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物光温生产潜力的空间分布
Figure2.Spatial distribution of light-temperature potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin during 1961-2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图3196—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的空间分布
Figure3.Spatial distribution of climatic potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin during 1961-2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图41961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期辐射量的变化趋势
Figure4.Change of radiation during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图51961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期辐射量变化趋势的空间分布
Figure5.Spatial distribution of change in radiation during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图61961—2018年辐射资源变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响
Figure6.Effects of radiation resource changes on the climatic potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图71961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期平均气温的变化趋势
Figure7.Change of average temperature during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图81961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期平均气温变化趋势的空间分布
Figure8.Spatial distribution of change in average temperature during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图91961—2018年热量资源变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响
Figure9.Effects of thermal resource changes on the climatic potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图101961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期降水量的变化趋势
Figure10.Change of precipitation during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图111961—2018年四川盆地主要粮食作物生育期降水量变化趋势的空间分布
Figure11.Spatial distribution of change in precipitation during the growth periods of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图121961—2018年降水资源变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响
Figure12.Effects of change in the precipitation resources on the climatic potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图131961—2018年气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响
Figure13.Effects of climate change on the climatic potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2018


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表1作物光合生产潜力模型各参数取值
Table1.Value of each parameter for photosynthetic potential productivity of crops

参数 Parameter	水稻 Rice	玉米 Maize	小麦 Winter wheat
μ	0.9	1.0	1.0
ε	0.49	0.49	0.49
φ	0.224	0.224	0.224
α	0.08	0.08	0.10
β	0.06	0.06	0.07
ρ	0.10	0.10	0.10
γ	0.01	0.01	0.03
ω	0.33	0.30	0.33
η	0.15	0.15	0.15
ξ	0.08	0.08	0.08
s	0.45	0.40	0.40
q	17.2	17.8	17.5
F(L)	0.55	0.58	0.55

下载: 导出CSV

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