李德萍^{1, 2,,},
张凯静²,
张璐²,
董海鹰²,
郭丽娜²,
刘学刚²
1.青岛市气象灾害防御工程技术研究中心 青岛 266003
2.青岛市气象局 青岛 266003
基金项目: 中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201417
青岛市气象局科研项目2015qdqxm10

详细信息

通讯作者:李德萍, 主要从事气候趋势预测、气候变化及农业气象应用等研究。E-mail:ldp108@126.com

中图分类号:S426

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收稿日期:2020-07-10
录用日期:2020-09-04
刊出日期:2020-11-01

Spatial and temporal characteristics and meteorological indexes of late spring coldness in Qingdao

LI Deping^{1, 2,,},
ZHANG Kaijing²,
ZHANG Lu²,
DONG Haiying²,
GUO Lina²,
LIU Xuegang²
1. Qingdao Engineering Technology Research Center for Meteorological Disaster Prevention, Qingdao 266003, China
2. Qingdao Meteorological Bureau, Qingdao 266003, China
Funds: the Climate Change Program of China Meteorological A dministrationCCSF201417
the Research Program of Qingdao Meteorological Administration2015qdqxm10

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Corresponding author:LI Deping, E-mail:ldp108@126.com

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摘要
摘要:本文基于青岛地区7个国家气象站1961—2015年3—5月逐日平均气温、最低气温资料及农作物霜冻、低温冷害或冻害资料，依据GB/T 34816—2017《倒春寒气象指标》，统计研究出倒春寒气象指标及时空特征，为提高作物防御能力提供参考。结果表明，青岛地区倒春寒分轻度和中度两级，分别占67.3%和32.7%，无重度。倒春寒年均发生1.1站次，主要在4月份。自20世纪90年代以来，年际或年代际变化主要呈减少趋势。空间分布从西北部地区到东南沿海逐渐减少，即墨中度出现概率最大。进一步分析得知，倒春寒致灾概率为26.3%。通过灾情发生时气象条件分析得出致灾性倒春寒气象指标：轻度型最低气温降至0~5℃、过程平均气温偏低2~4℃，持续时间3~5 d；中度型最低气温降至0℃以下、过程平均气温偏低4℃以上，持续时间6 d以上。从影响范围、发生时间和致灾性分析，青岛地区中度倒春寒范围大，为区域性发生，出现在3月下旬—4月中旬，可造成农作物冻害；轻度倒春寒影响范围较小，一般2站以下，出现时间略晚，4月中下旬概率较大，易造成霜冻或低温冷害。总之，春季冷空气入侵引发青岛地区倒春寒天气现象，其中26.3%为致灾性倒春寒，造成农业生产经济损失。值得重视的是轻度倒春寒，因其发生频率高于中度，且发生时段与本地主要农作物生长关键期重叠，如小麦拔节—孕穗期、大部分果树开花期，需加以防范。
关键词:倒春寒/
气象指标/
致灾概率/
时空特征/
发生时间/
致灾性
Abstract:Meteorological services play a role in agriculture and improve defense capability. This study used data from seven national meteorological stations in Qingdao, China, including the daily mean and minimum temperatures during the spring (3-5 months) of 1961-2015 and the crop frost or low-temperature damage from disasters, as categorized by the national standard of GB/T 34816-2017 "meteorological indicators of late spring coldness."The meteorological index and temporal and spatial characteristics of the late spring coldness were statistically analyzed. The results showed that there were two grades of mild and moderate cold periods (no severe) in late spring (67.3% and 32.7%, respectively). The average annual occurrence of late spring coldness was 1.1 stations, mainly in April. Since the 1990s, the interannual or intergenerational changes had decreased, and the spatial distribution gradually decreased from the northwest to the southeast coast. Moderate Jimo had the greatest probability of occurrence, and the probability of causing late spring coldness was 26.3%. Based on the meteorological conditions of the disaster, we can derive the meteorological index of disaster-induced late spring coldness. The mild minimum temperature dropped to 0-5℃, the average temperature anomaly was -4 to -2℃, and the duration was 3-5 days. The moderate minimum temperature dropped below 0℃, and the average temperature anomaly was < -4℃ for more than 6 days. From the influence scope, occurrence time, and disaster-causing analysis, the moderate spring coldness impact range was regional and occurred from late March to mid-April, which may cause crop freezing damage. The mild influence range was small, generally < 2 stations, the time was late, and the probability was greater in the middle and late April, which may cause frost or chilling damage. The cold spring weather caused late spring coldness; 26.3% of the coldness resulted in agricultural production-associated economic losses. Interestingly, the frequency of mild late spring coldness was higher than that of moderate late spring coldness, and the occurrence time overlapped with the critical growth period of the main crops (i.e., the wheat jointing stage to booting stage, the flowering stage of most fruit trees). This needs to be prevented. Frost damage, late frost injury, or low-temperature damage in the Qingdao area were all caused by late spring coldness. The interannual variability of the late spring coldness in Qingdao was not obvious, even interdecadal variability had even increased, which was not consistent with the overall distribution in Qingdao. This was related to the regulatory effects of the ocean. There are temperature differences from the south-eastern coast to the north-western inland region of Qingdao, and the marine climate effects also gradually weaken.
Key words:Late spring coldness/
Meteorological index/
Disaster probability/
Spatiotemporal characteristics/
Occurrence date/
Catastrophability

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图1青岛地区地形和气象站点分布图
Figure1.Topography and distribution of meteorological stations in Qingdao area


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图2青岛站(代表沿海地区, A)和平度站(代表内陆地区, B)1991—2015年倒春寒年际变化趋势图
Figure2.Interannual trends of late spring coldness in Qingdao station (representing the coastal area, A) and Pingdu station (representing the inland area, B) from 1991 to 2015


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图3青岛地区1991—2015年倒春寒年代际变率空间分布图
Figure3.Spatial distribution of interdecadal variability of late spring coldness in Qingdao during 1991—2015


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表1青岛地区1991—2015年倒春寒年均总次数及轻度、中度倒春寒次数占比
Table1.Annual averages of total number of late spring coldness, and frequencies and proportions of mild to moderate late spring coldness in Qingdao area from 1991 to 2015

程度 Degree	项目 Item	站点 Station
		青岛 Qingdao	崂山 Laoshan	即墨 Jimo	莱西 Laixi	平度 Pingdu	胶州 Jiaozhou	黄岛 Huangdao	平均 Average
总数 Total		28	23	25	28	30	27	25	26.6
年均 Annual average		1.12	0.92	1.00	1.12	1.20	1.08	1.00	1.06
中度 Moderate	次数 Frequency	7	9	12	9	11	9	4	8.7
	年均 Annual average	0.28	0.36	0.48	0.36	0.44	0.36	0.16	0.35
	占比 Proportion	0.25	0.39	0.48	0.32	0.37	0.33	0.16	0.33
轻度 Mild	次数 Frequency	21	14	13	19	19	18	21	17.9
	年均 Annual average	0.84	0.56	0.52	0.76	0.76	0.72	0.84	0.71
	占比 Proportion	0.75	0.61	0.52	0.68	0.63	0.67	0.84	0.67

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表21991—2015年青岛地区各站点倒春寒高发时段(月-日)
Table2.High incidence period (month-day) of late spring coldness in each district of Qingdao

站点 Station	第1时段 First period	第2时段 Second period	第3时段 Third period
青岛 Qingdao	04-02—04-15
崂山 Laoshan	04-02—04-24
即墨 Jimo	04-02—04-18
莱西 Laixi	03-22—03-30	04-06—04-10	04-22—04-28
平度 Pingdu	04-19—05-03
胶州 Jiaozhou	03-31—04-12	04-18—05-01
黄岛 Huangdao	03-17—05-01

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表3青岛地区1991—2015年冻害过程最低气温、冷空气等级及倒春寒等级表
Table3.Minimum temperature, cold air level intensity and late spring coldness grade of freezing injury processes in Qingdao area during 1991—2015

年份 Year	冻害日期(月-日) Freezing date (month-day)	灾害类型 Type of disaster	影响区域 Area of influence	最低气温 Minimum temperature (℃)	冷空气等级 Cold air level	倒春寒等级 Late spring coldness grade
1993	04-05—04-10	冻害 Freeze injury	全区 Whole region	–5.6	寒潮 Cold wave	中度 Moderate
2002	04-25	霜冻 Frost	胶州、即墨 Jiaozhou, Jimo	2.0	较强冷空气 Strong cold air	轻度 Mild
2004	04-24	霜冻 Frost	胶州、莱西 Jiaozhou, Laixi	2.8	寒潮 Cold wave	轻度 Mild
2006	04-13	霜冻 Frost	平度 Pingdu	3.3	较强冷空气 Strong cold air	轻度 Mild
2009	03-23—03-24	低温冷害 Chilling injury	崂山 Laoshan	0.6	较强冷空气 Strong cold air	轻度 Mild
2009	03-31—04-01	低温冷害 Chilling injury	崂山 Laoshan	1.4	弱冷空气 Weak cold air	轻度 Mild
2013	04-19—04-20	冻害 Freeze injury	平度、胶州、黄岛 Pingdu, Jiaozhou, Huangdao	0.1	较强冷空气 Strong cold air	中度 Moderate

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表4青岛地区1991—2015年7次冻害过程平均气温距平及过程时长
Table4.Mean temperature anomaly and process duration of 7 freezing damage processes in Qingdao area during 1991—2015

年份 Year	影响区域 Area of influence	实际过程日期(月-日) Actual process date (month-day)	过程时长 Process duration (d)	全区平均气温 Average temperature of the whole region (℃)	全区平均气温距平 Average temperature anomaly of the whole region (℃)	受影响区域平均气温 Regional average temperature of the affected area (℃)	受影响区域平均气温距平 Average temperature anomaly of the affected area (℃)
1993	全市 Whole region	04-04—04-14	11	7.0	—4.1	/	/
2002	胶州、即墨 Jiaozhou, Jimo	04-24—04-26	3	11.0	—2.9	11.1	—3.5
2004	胶州、莱西 Jiaozhou, Laixi	04-24—04-27	4	12.0	—2.1	12.1	—2.1
2006	平度 Pingdu	04-12—04-14	3	8.9	—2.7	8.7	—2.9
2009	崂山 Laoshan	03-23—03-25	3	3.7	—3.0	4.3	—2.7
2009	崂山 Laoshan	03-30—04-01	3	5.0	—3.9	5.7	—3.6
2013	平度、胶州、黄岛 Pingdu, Jiaozhou, Huangdao	04-17—04-22	6	8.0	—5.3	7.9	—5.5

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表5青岛地区致灾性倒春寒气象指标
Table5.Meteorological indexes of disaster causing late spring coldness in Qingdao

等级 Grade	最低气温 Minimum temperature (Td) (℃)	平均气温距平 Mean temperature anomaly (ΔT) (℃)	持续时间 Duration (L) (d)
轻度型 Mild	0 < Td≤5	—4 < ΔT≤—2	3≤L≤5
中度型 Moderate	Td≤0	ΔT≤—4	5 < L

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