邓国卫^{1, 2,},
卿清涛^1,,,
徐金霞¹,
孙俊³
1.四川省气候中心 成都 610072
2.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
3.中国气象局干部培训学院四川分院 成都 610072
基金项目: 四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目2018JY0643
四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目2018JY0341
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目2018-key-05-01

详细信息

作者简介:邓国卫, 主要从事气象灾害风险与气候资源评估研究。E-mail:z20041170019@163.com

通讯作者:卿清涛, 主要从事应用气象、气候风险区划的研究。E-mail:qingqt79531@foxmail.com

中图分类号:S166;P49

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出版历程

收稿日期:2019-08-02
录用日期:2019-12-27
刊出日期:2020-05-01

Integrated meteorological disaster risk regionalization of rice in Sichuan Province

DENG Guowei^{1, 2,},
QING Qingtao^1,,,
XU Jinxia¹,
SUN Jun³
1. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
3. Sichuan Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Chengdu 610072, China
Funds: the Basic Research Project of Science and Technology Program of Sichuan2018JY0643
the Basic Research Project of Science and Technology Program of Sichuan2018JY0341
the Fund of the Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province2018-key-05-01

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Corresponding author:QING Qingtao, E-mail:qingqt79531@foxmail.com

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摘要
摘要:本文利用1981—2012年四川省82县的水稻单产资料，采用HP滤波法，进行水稻气象产量分离，分歉收年和成灾年两个年型，研究四川省水稻单产平均减产率、减产率变异系数和不同等级减产率风险概率的空间分布特征，并基于成灾年风险区划指标，开展四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划。结果表明：HP滤波法可用于四川省水稻气象产量分离，四川省水稻气象产量具有显著的准4 a、7 a周期振荡特征。平均减产率从西南向东北方向呈现“高-低-高”分布特征，80%以上县歉收年平均减产率介于2%~7%，成灾年平均减产率介于6%~15%。各县歉收年减产率变异系数介于0.6~2.2，成灾年减产率变异系数介于0~1.2；减产率变异系数相对高值区位于西南山地西部、盆地南部和盆地北部山地。各级减产率风险概率大值区主要集中于广元和巴中地区，还包括盐亭、古蔺、盐源、越西等县。四川省水稻综合气象灾害高风险区主要分布于盆地北部、盆地南部和西南山地西部等山区，中等风险区主要分布于盆地丘陵区及盆周低山区，低风险区主要分布于盆地平原、浅丘区和凉山州中东部。风险区划结果与四川省气象灾害分布和水稻农业气象灾害分布的研究成果相吻合，可为四川省水稻防灾减灾提供科学依据和重要参考。
关键词:综合气象灾害/
风险区划/
四川/
水稻/
产量分离/
减产率
Abstract:The trend and meteorological yields were decomposed using the High-Pass (HP) filtering method based on the data of rice yield per unit area from 1981 to 2012 in 82 counties of Sichuan Province, China. The spatial distribution characteristics of average yield loss rate, variation coefficient of yield loss rate, and risk probability of different yield loss rate in different grades were analyzed in the lean years and disaster years with the relative meteorological yield, which was calculated with the trend and meteorological yields. Integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning was carried out on the basis of the risk zoning indexes of the disaster years. The HP filter method could be applied to the separation of the meteorological yield in Sichuan Province. The meteorological yield of rice in Sichuan Province had significant quasi-4 a and 7 a periodic oscillation characteristics. The average yield loss rate showed a high-low-high distribution from southwest to northeast in the study area. More than 80% of counties displayed an average yield loss rate of 2%-7% in the lean years and 6%-15% in the disaster years. For all counties, the variation coefficient of yield loss rate was 0.6-2.2 in the lean years and 0-1.2 in the disaster years. The areas with relatively high variation coefficient of yield loss rate were located in the west of southwestern mountainous region, the southern parts of the basin and the mountainous region in the northern part of the basin. The large-value probability areas of different yield loss rates were mainly concentrated in Guangyuan City and Bazhong City, as well as in Yanting, Gulin, Yanyuan, Yuexi. The high-risk areas of rice integrated meteorological disaster were mainly distributed in the mountainous regions of the southern, northern and southwestern parts of the basin. The medium-risk areas were mainly located in the hilly region of the basin and the surrounding low mountainous region. The low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the plain and shallow hilly regions of the basin and the east-central Liangshan Prefecture. The results of risk zoning were consistent with the distribution data of the meteorological disasters and the rice agro-meteorological disasters in Sichuan Province. The data provide a scientific basis and important reference for rice disaster prevention and mitigation in Sichuan Province.
Key words:Integrated meteorological disaster/
Risk regionalization/
Sichuan/
Rice/
Yield separation/
Yield loss rate

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图1研究区域分布(a)及四川省各地高程(b)
Figure1.Overview of the study area (a) and elevation of all region of Sichuan Provinces (b)


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图2四川省1981—2012年水稻气象产量小波变换方差(a)和小波变换(b) (图b中粗实线为影响锥曲线, 线上部为受边界影响区域)
Figure2.Variance (a) and wavelet transform (b) of the meteorological yield of rice in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012 (in the figure b, the thick and solid line is the affected cone curve, the part over the line is affected by the boundary)


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图3四川省1981—2012年歉收年(a)和成灾年(b)的水稻平均减产率分布
Figure3.Distribution of average yield reduction rates of rice in lean years (a) and disaster years (b) in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012


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图4四川省1981—2012年歉收年(a)和成灾年(b)水稻减产率变异系数
Figure4.Variation coefficients of yield reduction rates of rice in lean years (a) and disaster years (b) in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012


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图5四川省水稻不同减产风险概率的空间分布
Figure5.Distribution of probabilities of different yield reduction rates of rice in Sichuan Province


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图6四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划
Figure6.Risk zoning of integrated meteorological disaster of rice in Sichuan Province


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表1四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险分区减产特征
Table1.Characteristics of rice yield reduction of different zones of integrated meteorological disaster risk in Sichuan Province

风险区 Risk zone	平均减产率 Average yield reduction rate (%)			风险概率 Risk probability (%)		分布县数 Number of counties	分布地区 Distribution region
	歉收年 Lean years	成灾年 Disaster years		减产率≥5% Yield reduction rate≥5%	减产率≥10% Yield reduction rate≥10%
低风险区Low-risk area	4.4	10.1		14.2	2.8	75	成都、眉山、雅安北部、南充西部、乐山东北部、凉山州中东部等地区大部分县 Most counties in Chengdu, Meishan, North Ya’an, West Nanchong, Northeast Leshan, East-Central Liangshan, etc
中等风险区 Medium-risk area	5.5	13.0		20.7	6.1	52	德阳、绵阳、遂宁、达州、广安、泸州、乐山南部等区域大部分县 Most counties in Deyang, Mianyang, Suining, Dazhou, Guang’an, Luzhou, South Leshan, etc
高风险区 High-risk area	8.5	19.3		35.4	19.0	24	巴中各县、广元中东部各县、宜宾南部各县以及江油、盐亭、万源、荥经、古蔺、越西、美姑、盐源、盐边 Counties in Bazhong, East-Central Guangyuan and South Yibin, as well as counties with Jiangyou, Yanting, Wanyuan, Yingjing, Gulin, Yuexi, Meigu, Yanyuan, Yanbian

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