刘佳^{1, 2,},
卿清涛^{1, 2,,},
陈超^{2, 4,,},
张玉芳³,
邹雨伽³
1.四川省气候中心 成都 610072
2.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
3.四川省农业气象中心 成都 610072
4.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
基金项目: 四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目2018JY0643
四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目2018JY0341
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目2018-key-05-01
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目2018-key-05-12
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目BROP201817

详细信息

作者简介:刘佳, 主要从事气候变化影响评价。E-mail:liujia851229@163.com

通讯作者:卿清涛, 主要从事应用气象、气候风险区划的研究, E-mail:qingqt79531@foxmail.com
陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究, E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com

中图分类号:S166

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出版历程

收稿日期:2019-01-07
录用日期:2019-05-28
刊出日期:2019-09-01

Risk assessment of hot damages for single-cropping rice based on accumulation index of heat stress in Sichuan

LIU Jia^{1, 2,},
QING Qingtao^{1, 2,,},
CHEN Chao^{2, 4,,},
ZHANG Yufang³,
ZOU Yujia³
1. Sichuan Provincial Climate Centre, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
3. Sichuan Provincial Agricultural Meteorological Centre, Chengdu 610072, China
4. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China
Funds: the Scientific and Technological Commission of Sichuan Science and Technology Agency2018JY0643
the Scientific and Technological Commission of Sichuan Science and Technology Agency2018JY0341
the Science and Technology Development Project of Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin2018-key-05-01
the Science and Technology Development Project of Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin2018-key-05-12
the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological AdministrationBROP201817

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Corresponding author:QING Qingtao, E-mail:qingqt79531@foxmail.com;CHEN Chao, E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com

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摘要
摘要:高温热害是四川主要农业气象灾害之一，研究高温热害对水稻的风险区划，对保障水稻产量及农业可持续发展有重要意义。本文利用四川单季稻种植区1986-2015年气象观测资料、农业气象观测资料、社会统计资料以及基础地理信息资料，以单季稻生育敏感期（抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期）为研究时段，选取热害累积指数、地形、产量变异度、农村经济等因子，分别构建了危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个风险因子，利用灰色关联度方法构建了四川单季稻高温热害"四因子"风险评价模型并对种植区进行风险区划。结果显示，高风险区主要分布在盆东平行岭谷区、盆中浅丘区、盆周边缘山地区的西部，以及盆南丘陵区的南部，该类型区域地势平缓，高温热害频繁。中等风险区主要集中在盆西平丘区和川西南中山山地区，该类型区域灌溉条件优越，社会经济水平发达，应对高温热害风险水平较高。低风险区主要集中在川西南中山宽谷区以及盆周边缘山地区，该类型区域地形较复杂，水稻种植较少，受高温热害影响偏小。四川盆地单季稻高温热害风险存在显著地区差异，应根据各自区域的风险特征选用适合的品种和方式提高防灾减灾能力。
Abstract:Under global climate change, agricultural meteorological disasters have been increasing. Heat stress has been one of the most important agro-meteorological disasters in Sichuan Province, and the affected area and frequency and intensity of heat stress have significantly changed. Therefore, research on the effect of heat stress on rice is critical for sustainable agricultural development and safe production in Sichuan Province. Heat damage risk of single-cropping rice in Sichuan was studied using meteorological, agricultural meteorological, statistical, and geographic data during 1986-2015. Four factors, which were hazard, sensitivity, exposure, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, were created with the cumulative high temperature-induced damage index, topography, yield variation, and rural economy as the basic indexes to evaluate heat damage risk during the sensitive stages of heading, flowering, and filling. A "Four Factors" multi-risk assessment index system of heat injury for single-cropping rice in Sichuan Province was established by using the Grey Correlation method, and used in the risk regionalization of single-cropping rice of the study area. The results of the multi-risk assessment model were valuable for making decisions to relieve disaster risk. The assessment results showed that the parallel ridge-valley region of the eastern basin, the shallow hilly area of the central basin, the west part of mountain area around the basin, and the southern hilly area of the southern basin were divided into high-risk areas with gentle topography and frequent heat damage. Plain and hill areas of the western basin and mountain area of southwest Sichuan were roughly divided into medium risk areas with good irrigation conditions, higher socioeconomic developmental levels, and good coping abilities. The wide valley area of Southwest Sichuan and mountain area around the basin were roughly divided into low risk areas where the regional topography is complex, and less rice is planted. In summary, there were clear differences in heat damage risks on single-cropping rice in different regions in Sichuan. Reasonable varieties and cultivation modes should be chosen to raise prevention and reduction ability based on different regional risk characteristics.

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图1四川水稻种植区划分(7个子区)及84个农业气象站的分布(GY:广元; WY:万源; CX:苍溪; DY:德阳; NC:南充; SN:遂宁; GA:广安; YA:雅安; JY:简阳; LES:乐山; NJ:内江; HY:汉源; GL:甘洛; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; XY:叙永; YY:盐源; XC:西昌; HL:会理; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure1.Distribution of the 7 rice-growing subareas and 84 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province (GY: Guangyuan; WY: Wanyuan; CX: Cangxi; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; SN: Suining; GA: Guang'an; YA: Ya'an; JY: Jianyang; LES: Leshan; NJ: Neijiang; HY: Hanyuan; GL: Ganluo; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; XY: Xuyong; YY: Yanyuan; XC: Xichang; HL: Huili; PZH: Panzhihua)


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图21986—2015年四川单季稻抽穗扬花期(a)、灌浆结实期(b)和全生育期(c)高温热害危险性空间分布(GY:广元; BZ:巴中; MY:绵阳; DY:德阳; NC:南充; DZ:达州; CD:成都; SN:遂宁; MS:眉山; YA:雅安; ZY:资阳; NJ:内江; LES:乐山; ZG:自贡; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; LS:凉山; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure2.Spatial distribution of hazard of hot damage during heading-flowering stage (a), filling-harvest stage (b) and whole growing period (c) of single-cropping rice in Sichuan during 1986—2015 (GY: Guangyuan; BZ: Bazhong; MY: Mianyang; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; DZ: Dazhou; CD: Chengdu; SN: Suining; MS: Meishan; YA: Ya'an; ZY: Ziyang; NJ: Neijiang; LES: Leshan; ZG: Zigong; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; LS: Liangshan; PZH: Panzhihua)


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图31986—2015年四川单季稻高温热害脆弱性评价指标(a, b, c, d)以及脆弱性(e)的空间分布(GY:广元; BZ:巴中; MY:绵阳; DY:德阳; NC:南充; DZ:达州; CD:成都; SN:遂宁; MS:眉山; YA:雅安; ZY:资阳; NJ:内江; LES:乐山; ZG:自贡; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; LS:凉山; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure3.Spatial distribution of evaluation indexes of sensitivity (a, b, c, d) and sensitivity (e) to hot damage of single-cropping rice in Sichuan during 1986—2015 (GY: Guangyuan; BZ: Bazhong; MY: Mianyang; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; DZ: Dazhou; CD: Chengdu; SN: Suining; MS: Meishan; YA: Ya'an; ZY: Ziyang; NJ: Neijiang; LES: Leshan; ZG: Zigong; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; LS: Liangshan; PZH: Panzhihua)


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图41986—2015年四川单季稻高温热害暴露性空间分布(GY:广元; BZ:巴中; MY:绵阳; DY:德阳; NC:南充; DZ:达州; CD:成都; SN:遂宁; MS:眉山; YA:雅安; ZY:资阳; NJ:内江; LES:乐山; ZG:自贡; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; LS:凉山; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure4.Spatial distribution of exposure to hot damage of single-cropping rice in Sichuan during 1986—2015 (GY: Guangyuan; BZ: Bazhong; MY: Mianyang; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; DZ: Dazhou; CD: Chengdu; SN: Suining; MS: Meishan; YA: Ya'an; ZY: Ziyang; NJ: Neijiang; LES: Leshan; ZG: Zigong; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; LS: Liangshan; PZH: Panzhihua)


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图51986—2015年四川单季稻高温热害防灾减灾能力评价指标(a, b, c, d)和防灾减灾能力(e)的空间分布(GY:广元; BZ:巴中; MY:绵阳; DY:德阳; NC:南充; DZ:达州; CD:成都; SN:遂宁; MS:眉山; YA:雅安; ZY:资阳; NJ:内江; LES:乐山; ZG:自贡; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; LS:凉山; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure5.Spatial distribution of evaluation indexes of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity (a, b, c, d) and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity (e) of hot damage of single cropping rice in Sichuan during 1986—2015 (GY: Guangyuan; BZ: Bazhong; MY: Mianyang; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; DZ: Dazhou; CD: Chengdu; SN: Suining; MS: Meishan; YA: Ya'an; ZY: Ziyang; NJ: Neijiang; LES: Leshan; ZG: Zigong; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; LS: Liangshan; PZH: Panzhihua)


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图6四川单季稻高温热害风险空间分布(GY:广元; BZ:巴中; MY:绵阳; DY:德阳; NC:南充; DZ:达州; CD:成都; SN:遂宁; MS:眉山; YA:雅安; ZY:资阳; NJ:内江; LES:乐山; ZG:自贡; YB:宜宾; LZ:泸州; LS:凉山; PZH:攀枝花)
Figure6.Spatial distribution of risk of hot damage for single-cropping rice in Sichuan Province (GY: Guangyuan; BZ: Bazhong; MY: Mianyang; DY: Deyang; NC: Nanchong; DZ: Dazhou; CD: Chengdu; SN: Suining; MS: Meishan; YA: Ya'an; ZY: Ziyang; NJ: Neijiang; LES: Leshan; ZG: Zigong; YB: Yibin; LZ: Luzhou; LS: Liangshan; PZH: Panzhihua)


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表11986—2015年四川盆地各水稻种植区单季稻抽穗扬花期和灌浆期统计
Table1.Date of heading-flowering stage and filling-harvest stage of rice in each rice-growing subarea in Sichuan during 1986 to 2015

子区代码 Subarea code	区域名称 Subarea name	抽穗扬花期(月-日) Heading-flowing stage (month-day)	灌浆结实期(月-日) Filling-harvest stage (month-day)
Ⅰ	盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin	07-01—07-10	07-11—08-10
Ⅱ	盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin	07-21—07-31	08-01—09-11
Ⅲ	盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin	08-01—08-10	08-11—09-11
Ⅳ	盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin	08-11—08-20	08-21—09-30
Ⅴ	盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin	08-01—08-10	08-11—08-31
Ⅵ	川西南中山山地区Mountain area of southwestern Sichuan	08-01—08-10	08-11—09-10
Ⅶ	川西南中山宽谷区Wide valley area of southwestern Sichuan	08-01—08-10	08-11—09-10

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表2基于高温热害累积指数(HIS)的水稻抽穗开花期和灌浆结实期高温热害等级
Table2.Grading of hot damage at heading-flowering and filing-harvest stages according to the cumulative high temperature-induced damage index (HIS) for rice

热害等级 Grade of hot damage	抽穗开花期热害等级阈值 Threshold of hot damage at heading-flowering stage	灌浆结实期等级阈值 Threshold of hot damage at filling-harvest stage
轻度Mild	0≤HISf < 2.0	0≤HISg < 2.0
中度Moderate	2.0≤HISf < 4.0	2.0≤HISg < 6.0
重度Severe	4.0≤HISf	6.0≤HISg

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表3用于水稻高温热害脆弱性评价的地形高程及高程标准差的组合赋值
Table3.Portfolio assignment of the terrain elevation and elevation standard deviation used for evaluation of hot damage vulnerability of rice

高程 Elevation	地形高程标准差 Elevation standard deviation
	1级 Level 1 (≤1 m)	2级 Level 2 (1~10 m)	3级 Level 3 (≥10 m)
1级Level 1(≤300 m)	0.9	0.8	0.7
2级Level 2(300~500 m)	0.8	0.7	0.6
3级Level 3 (500~1 000 m)	0.7	0.6	0.5
4级Level 4(≥1 000 m)	0.6	0.5	0.4

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表4用于水稻高温热害脆弱性评价的地形坡度及坡向的组合赋值
Table4.Portfolio assignment of the gradient and slope direction used for evaluation of hot damage vulnerability of rice

坡向 Slope direction	坡度Gradient
	1级(5°~10°) Level 1	2级(10°~15°) Level 2	3级(15°~20°) Level 3	4级(≥20°) Level 4
1级Level 1 (315°~45°)	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1
2级Level 2 (225°~315°)	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.5
3级Level 3 (45°~135°)	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.2
4级Level 4 (135°~225°)	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6

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