庞艳梅1,,,
刘佳3
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
2.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
3.四川省气候中心 成都 610072
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划“粮食丰产增效科技创新”重点专项2017YFD0300400
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目2018-key-05-01
中国气象局西南区域重大科研业务项目2014-08
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目BROP201817
详细信息
作者简介:陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究。E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com
通讯作者:庞艳梅, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响评估研究。E-mail：pangyanm@126.com
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出版历程
收稿日期:2018-08-07
录用日期:2018-10-21
刊出日期:2019-04-01
Assessment of risk and yield loss of rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress
CHEN Chao1, 2,,PANG Yanmei1,,,
LIU Jia3
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hilly Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China
3. Sichuan Provincial Climate Centre, Chengdu 610072, China
Funds: the Key Special Project of National Key Research and Development Program of China "Food Production Enhancement and Efficiency Innovation"2017YFD0300400
the Science and Technology Development Project of Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin2018-key-05-01
the Southwest Regional Major Scientific and Operational Projects of China Meteorological Administration2014-08
the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological AdministrationBROP201817
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Corresponding author:PANG Yanmei, E-mail: pangyanm@126.com
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摘要
摘要:高温热害是四川省最主要的农业气象灾害之一，研究高温热害对水稻的影响对于四川省农业可持续发展、保障水稻的安全生产具有重要意义。本文以1981—2015年四川省84个气象台站的逐日气象资料、农业气象观测站水稻生育期资料和县级水稻产量资料为基础，利用水稻高温热害指数，构建四川省水稻关键生育期和全生育期综合高温热害风险模型；分离水稻气象产量，建立高温热害影响下水稻气象产量与高温热害指数间的统计模型，开展1981—2015年四川省水稻高温热害风险和灾损评估。研究结果表明：四川省水稻抽穗扬花期，高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北大部和盆地南部的个别地区，其中达州、广安和泸州的部分地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地西部、南部和川西南的大部地区。灌浆结实期，水稻高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北和盆地南部的大部分地区，其中泸州大部、南充和宜宾的个别地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地北部、西部和川西南的大部地区。水稻全生育阶段高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北和盆地南部的大部分地区，其中泸州、南充和达州的部分地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地北部、西部和川西南的大部地区。构建的水稻高温热害灾损评估模型简单实用，验证结果表明高温热害年水稻统计产量与模拟产量间的相对误差绝对值都小于1.5%，建立的模型能反映四川省高温热害对水稻产量的影响，同时能够较好地评估高温热害下四川省水稻的产量损失。进一步的灾损评估结果表明，高温热害危害下代表站点水稻的减产率为5.6%~10.2%。
关键词:水稻/
高温热害/
风险/
灾损/
四川省
Abstract:Under global climate change, agricultural meteorological disasters have been increasing. Heat stress has been one of the most important agrometeorological disasters in Sichuan Province, the affected area, frequency and intensity of heat stress have significantly changed. Therefore, research on the impact of heat stress on rice is critical for sustainable agricultural development and safe production in Sichuan Province. In this study, the following data were used to evaluate the risk of cultivation and yield loss of rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress:1) daily climate variables (average temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity) from 84 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province for the period 1981-2015; 2) developmental stages (from heading to flowering, and from grain-filling to harvest) of rice in 84 agro-meteorological observation stations in Sichuan Province for the period 1981-2015; 3) rice yields for the 84 stations in Sichuan Province during the period 1981-2015. The hazard index of heat stress at different rice developmental stages were calculated based on the Chinese National Standard, GB/T 21985-2008 Temperature Index of High Temperature Harm for Main Crops. The meteorological yield of rice was separated from actual yield. And then the risk evaluation model for rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress was constructed by using rice hazard index for the critical development stages and the whole growth period, and rice yield loss due to heat stress was evaluated. The results showed the average hazard index of heat stress in the period 1981-2015 was highest (6.0) for grain-filling to harvest growth stage, medium (5.0) for the whole growth period and lowest (4.0) for heading to flowering growth stage in Sichuan Province. For the heading-flowering stage, most of the northeast basin and parts of the southern basin were under high or sub-high-risk of heat stress. Dazhou, Guang'an and Luzhou were under high-risk. The western basin, southern basin and southwest Sichuan were under low-risk. For the filling to harvest stage, most of the northeast basin and the southern basin were under high or sub-high-risk of heat stress. Luzhou, part of Nanchong and Yibin were high-risk areas. Most of the western basin, northern basin and southwest Sichuan were low-risk areas. For the whole growth period, most of the northeast basin and southern basin were under high or sub-high-risk. Luzhou, Nanchong and Dazhou were high-risk areas. Most of the western basin, northern basin and southwest Sichuan were low-risk areas. The statistical model for rice yield loss due to heat stress was simple and practicable. Using Yanjiang, Yingshan, Longchang, Yanting and Dazhu as the case study, the differences in historical statistical yields and simulated yields of rice for the years of heat stress were analyzed. The relative error between the statistical yield and the simulated yield of rice affected by heat stress was less than 1.5%. The verification results showed that the model was synthetically reflective of the impact of heat stress on rice yield and that it highly accurately evaluated rice yield loss. The assessment showed that the range of yield loss of rice in typical areas of Sichuan due to heat stress was 5.6%-10.2%.
Key words:Rice/
Heat stress/
Risk/
Yield loss/
Sichuan Province
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图1四川省水稻种植区划及气象台站的分布
Figure1.Regionalization of the rice-growing areas and meteorological stations in Sichuan Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2四川省水稻抽穗扬花期(a)、灌浆结实期(b)和全生育期(c)高温热害风险分布
Figure2.Risk of heat stress of rice during heading-flowering stage (a), filling-harvest stage (b) and whole growth period (c) in Sichuan Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1四川省水稻种植区不同区域抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期的划分
Table1.Division of heading-flowing and filling-harvest stages in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province
| 区域名称 Region name | 抽穗—扬花期(月-日) Heading-flowering (month-day) | 灌浆—结实期(月-日) Filling-harvest (month-day) |
| 盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin | 08-01—08-10 | 08-11—09-11 |
| 盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin | 07-21—07-31 | 08-01—09-11 |
| 盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin | 07-01—07-10 | 07-11—08-10 |
| 盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin | 08-01—08-10 | 08-11—08-31 |
| 盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin | 08-11—08-20 | 08-21—09-30 |
| 川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan | 08-01—08-10 | 08-11—09-10 |
下载: 导出CSV表2四川省水稻不同生育阶段高温热害指数
Table2.Heat stress index of rice at different developmental stages in Sichuan Province
| 高温热害等级 Level of heat stress | 抽穗开花期 Heading-flowering stage | 灌浆结实期 Filling-harvest stage | 全生育期 Whole growth period | 高温热害强度 Intensity of heat damage |
| 轻度Mild | 0≤IHSf < 2.0 | 0≤GHSf < 2.0 | 0≤CHSf < 2.0 | 1 |
| 中度Moderate | 2.0≤IHSf < 4.0 | 2.0≤GHSf < 6.0 | 2.0≤CHSf < 5.0 | 2 |
| 重度Severe | 4.0≤IHSf | 6.0≤GHSf | 5.0≤CHSf | 3 |
| IHSf、GHSf和CHSf分别为抽穗开花期、灌浆结实期、全生育期综合高温热害指数。IHSf, GHSf and CHSf are heat stress indexes of rice at heading-flowering stage, filling-harvest stage and whole growth season. | ||||
下载: 导出CSV表3四川省水稻不同生育阶段高温热害不同风险等级的风险指数
Table3.Risk indexes of different risk levels of heat stress of rice at different developmental stages in Sichuan Province
| 生育阶段 Developmental stage | 风险等级Risk level | |||
| 低风险区Low risk | 中风险区Medium risk | 较高风险区Sub-high risk | 高风险区High risk | |
| 抽穗扬花期Heading-flowering stage | ≤0.12 | 0.12~0.25 | 0.25~0.50 | ≥0.50 |
| 灌浆结实期Filling-harvest stage | ≤0.25 | 0.25~0.50 | 0.50~0.80 | ≥0.80 |
| 全生育期Whole growth period | ≤0.18 | 0.18~0.36 | 0.36~0.54 | ≥0.54 |
下载: 导出CSV表4四川省水稻种植区不同区域水稻趋势产量的统计模型
Table4.Statistical models of rice trend yield in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province
| 区域名称 Region name | 统计模型 Statistical model |
| 盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin | Yi=0.219t3-12.26t2+222.61t+6 179.2 (R2=0.279, P < 0.01) |
| 盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin | Yi=0.201t3-12.39t2+217.73t+6 298.9 (R2=0.322, P < 0.01) |
| 盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin | Yi=0.064t3-5.93t3+228.25t+4 523.2 (R2=0.925, P < 0.01) |
| 盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin | Yi=0.112t3-10.45t2+278.13t+5 178.1 (R2=0.636, P < 0.01) |
| 盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin | Yi=0.459t3-25.01t2+459.16t+4 602.7 (R2=0.833, P < 0.01) |
| 川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan | Yi=0.036t3-4.41t2+161.61t+5 446.1 (R2=0.827, P < 0.01) |
| Yi为趋势产量(kg·hm-2); t为年序(1981年, t=1); P是显著性检验的概率。Yi is the trend yield of rice (kg·hm-2). t is the order of the year (for 1981, t=1). P is probability. | |
下载: 导出CSV表5四川省水稻种植区不同区域水稻气象产量与高温热害指数关系的统计模型
Table5.Statistical models for relationship between rice meteorological yield and heat stress index in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province
| 区域名称 Region name | 统计模型 Statistical model |
| 盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin | Ys=29.705+21.659PHSf-187.316QHSf (P=0.048) |
| 盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin | Ys=57.657+5.531PHSf-339.921QHSf (P=0.023) |
| 盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin | Ys=-1.825-198.307PHSf+96.953QHSf (P=0.034) |
| 盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin | Ys=120.456-402.165PHSf-105.568QHSf (P=0.027) |
| 盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin | Ys=43.242-200.706PHSf+140.014QHSf (P=0.046) |
| 川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan | Ys=-28.175+131.314PHSf+29.165QHSf (P=0.039) |
| Ys为气象产量(kg·hm-2); PHSf为标准化后的抽穗扬花期高温热害指数; QHSf为标准化后的灌浆结实期高温热害指数; P是显著性检验的概率。Ys is the meteorological yield of rice (kg·hm-2). PHSf is the standardized heat stress index at heading-flowering stage. QHSf is the standardized heat stress index at filling-harvest stage. P is probability. | |
下载: 导出CSV表6四川省典型站点高温热害年水稻统计产量与模拟产量的比较
Table6.Comparison of statistical and simulated annual yield of rice in years with heat stress in typical station of Sichuan Province
| 站点 Station | 高温热害年 Year of heat stress | 统计产量 Statistical yield (kg·hm-2) | 模拟产量 Simulated yield (kg·hm-2) | 相对误差绝对值 Absolute relative error (%) |
| 雁江Yanjiang | 1994 | 6 783 | 6 846 | 0.9 |
| 营山Yingshan | 2001 | 7 449 | 7 463 | 0.2 |
| 隆昌Longchang | 2006 | 7 356 | 7 421 | 0.9 |
| 盐亭Yanting | 2006 | 6 510 | 6 605 | 1.3 |
| 大竹Dazhu | 2007 | 6 874 | 6 980 | 1.5 |
下载: 导出CSV表7四川省典型站点高温热害年水稻的灾损评估
Table7.Assessment on yield loss of rice caused by heat stress in typical stations of Sichuan Province
| 站点 Station | 高温热害年 Year of heat stress | 气象产量 Meteorological yield (kg·hm-2) | 趋势产量 Trend yield (kg·hm-2) | 统计产量 Statistical yield (kg·hm-2) | 正常投入的产量 Normal yield (kg·hm-2) | 减产率 Yield loss (%) |
| 雁江Yanjiang | 1994 | -394 | 7 240 | 6 783 | 7 553 | 10.2 |
| 营山Yingshan | 2001 | -320 | 7 783 | 7 449 | 7 890 | 5.6 |
| 隆昌Longchang | 2006 | -364 | 7 785 | 7 356 | 7 865 | 6.5 |
| 盐亭Yanting | 2006 | -373 | 6 978 | 6 510 | 7 008 | 7.1 |
| 大竹Dazhu | 2007 | -128 | 7 108 | 6 874 | 7 405 | 7.2 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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