彭继权,
吴海涛^,,
宋嘉豪,
李孟丁
中南财经政法大学工商管理学院 武汉 430073
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目71273281
国家自然科学基金项目71573277
湖北省人文社科重点研究基地项目2018K008
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目DYWH1811
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目SHZLYB1804

详细信息

作者简介:彭继权, 主要研究方向为农业经济。E-mail:jiquan_wuhan@163.com

通讯作者:吴海涛, 主要研究方向为农业经济。E-mail: wuhan_haitao@aliyun.com

中图分类号:F323.3

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出版历程

收稿日期:2018-07-04
录用日期:2018-11-02
刊出日期:2019-03-01

Impact of agricultural mechanization level on farmers' cropping index in Hubei Province

PENG Jiquan,
WU Haitao^,,
SONG Jiahao,
LI Mengding
School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China71273281
the National Natural Science Foundation of China71573277
the Project of Hubei Provincial Humanities and Social Sciences Key Research Base2018K008
Sichuan Provincial Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social SciencesDYWH1811
Sichuan Provincial Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social SciencesSHZLYB1804

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Corresponding author:WU Haitao, E-mail: wuhan_haitao@aliyun.com

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摘要
摘要:耕地复种指数的提升对我国粮食安全战略实施和三农问题解决意义重大。为了考察农业机械化水平对湖北农户耕地复种指数的影响，以1 682份湖北农户调查数据为基础，通过运用IVTobit和IVProbit回归模型，探讨农业机械化水平对农户耕地复种指数的影响及其在不同类型农作物耕地间的差异性。研究结果表明：1）农业机械化水平每提升1%，耕地复种指数提高1.393%，粮食作物耕地复种指数提高0.988%，经济作物耕地复种指数提高2.160%。2）从不同类型农作物耕地复种意愿来看，农业机械化水平每提升1%，农户对粮食作物耕地复种意愿的概率提高3.100%，对经济作物耕地复种意愿的概率提高5.361%。从其他控制变量来看，户主教育、户主年龄、家庭非农收入占比、家庭转出土地、气温变化对农户耕地复种指数存在显著的负向影响；家庭规模、农作物品种数量、地区类型对农户耕地复种指数存在显著的正向影响。总之，农户农业机械化水平的提升对耕地复种有积极作用，特别对经济作物耕地复种指数的提升作用尤为明显。
关键词:农业机械化水平/
农户行为/
耕地/
复种指数/
IVTobit/
IVProbit
Abstract:Increased multi-cropping index in cultivated lands is critical for food security strategies and issues concerning in agriculture, countryside and peasant communities in China. Presently, many studies exist on multiple cropping index. However, most of these studies are based on national statistics, with fewer studies on peasant household conditions. Multiple cropping of cultivated lands is the production activities of individual rural households. Therefore, the use of macro-statistical data had failed to adequately capture inherent heterogeneities in peasant conditions in different regions. Furthermore, it has limited research analysis to only the factors that affect multiple cropping index at macro scale. This has made it difficult to accurately analyze the driving factors at micro scale. Here, we used survey data from 1 682 peasant households in Hubei Province to investigate the impact of the level of agricultural mechanization on multiple cropping index at microscopic scale. To further avoid the possibility of endogeneity and sample selection bias in the model, we used IVTobit and IVProbit regression models to explore the impact of the level of agricultural mechanization on multiple-cropping index and the differences in various types of crops. The results showed that:1) ordinary least square (OLS)-estimation result without consideration for sample selection bias and endogeneity and processed result were quite different. This indicated that the original OLS regression model significantly underestimated the effect of the level of agricultural mechanization on peasant household conditions. Regression coefficients pointed out that the level of agricultural mechanization had significant positive impact on multiple cropping index. For every 1% increase in the level of agricultural mechanization, multiple cropping index increased by 1.393%. This confirmed the hypothesis that agricultural mechanization effectively reduced the time of agricultural production, ensured seasonality of multiple crops, maximized utilization of land and increased the degree of cultivation. In addition, education and age of household head, proportion of non-agricultural income, transferred land and temperature change had dramatic negative effect on multiple cropping index of cultivated lands. Family size, number of crop varieties and type of area had significant positive effect on peasant household conditions. 2) Based on the analysis of the action mechanism of multiple cropping index of cultivated lands, there was significant difference in the impact of the level of agricultural mechanization on multiple cropping index and willingness of different types of crops. The level of agricultural mechanization affected cropping index of cash crops more than grain crops. Compared with peasants who grew food crops, those who grew cash crops were more willing to plant more with increasing level of agricultural mechanization. This was mainly because economic effects of cash crops were higher and peasants were more likely to multiply cash crops them than grain crops. The latter not only had strong seasonality, but also was not plantable in off-season periods, while the former had short growth cycle with operable production process. In summary, we argued that improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization by peasants played an active role in multiple cropping index in cultivated lands, especially for increasing cropping index of cash crops. In order to further improve the degree of cultivating land and to ensure domestic food security in peasant communities, government should vigorously promote the use of agricultural mechanization, strengthen policy support for peasants who cultivate grains in plains and reform grain storage systems.
Key words:Agricultural mechanization/
Peasant behavior/
Cultivated land/
Multiple cropping index/
IVTobit/
IVProbit

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表1研究区农业机械化水平对样本农户耕地复种指数影响的变量说明和统计
Table1.Description and statistics of variables of agricultural mechanization level effects on cultivated land multiple cropping index of agricultural households

分类?Category	变量?Variable	变量定义?Variable definition	平均?Mean	SD
因变量 Dependent variables	复种指数Multiple crop index (%)	收获面积/耕地面积 Harvested area / arable area	1.23	0.64
	复种意愿 Multiple crop will	有意愿, 复种指数不小于1=1;无意愿, 复种指数小于1=0 Willing, multiple crop index is not less than 1 = 1; No willing, multiple crop index is less than 1 = 0	0.43	0.50
关键解释变量 Key explanatory variables	农业机械化水平 Agricultural mechanization level (%)	(机耕率x0.4+机播率x0.3+机收率x0.3)/3 (Mechanical tillage rate x 0.4 + mechanical sowing rate x 0.3 + mechanical harvest rate x 0.3) / 3	0.38	0.30
	农业机械数量 Number of agricultural machinery	家庭农业机械数量总和 Total number of family agricultural machinery	1.01	1.32
	农业机械投资 Agricultural machinery investment	农业机械投资取对数 Logarithm of agricultural machinery investment	4.14	3.71
	灌溉面积占比 Irrigation area ratio (%)	灌溉面积/耕地面积 Irrigated area / cultivated area	0.20	0.35
个体特征 Individual factors	户主教育水平 Education of household head	户主教育水平实际值 Actual education level of the household head	6.72	3.65
	户主年龄 Age of household head	户主年龄实际值 Actual value of the household head age	55.99	11.03
家庭特征 Household factors	家庭规模Household size	家庭总人数Total number of families	4.14	1.78
	家庭非农收入占比 Ratio of non-agricultural income	家庭非农收入/家庭总收入 Non-agricultural income of the family / total household income	0.52	0.45
	家庭土地流转面积 Land transfer area of household (hm2)	家庭土地流转面积实际值 Actual value of land transfer area of household	1.47	0.20
	农作物种植种类 Crop planting species	农作物种植种类的数量 Number of crop planting species	2.08	1.45
自然特征 Natural factors	气温变化 Temperature changes	有升高=1;没有升高=0 Rise = 1; no rise = 0	0.78	0.41
	地区类型Regional type	平原=1;非平原=0 Plain = 1; non-plain = 0	0.33	0.47

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表2以农业机械化水平为因变量的样本农户耕复种指数回归模型多重共线性检验结果
Table2.Multicollinearity test results of regression model of cultivated land multiple cropping index with agricultural mechanization level as the dependent variable

因变量 Dependent variable	解释变量 Independent variable	共线性统计量 Statistics of multicollinearity
		容差?Tolerance		VIF
复种指数 Multiple crop index	农业机械化水平?Agricultural mechanization level		0.94	1.06
	户主教育水平?Education of household head		0.93	1.08
	户主年龄?Age of household head		0.81	1.23
	家庭规模?Family size		0.81	1.23
	家庭非农收入占比?Ratio of household non-agricultural income		0.97	1.02
	家庭土地流转面积?Family land transfer area		0.95	1.06
	农作物种植种类?Crop planting species		0.96	1.04
	气温变化?Temperature changes		0.92	1.09
	地区类型?Regional type		0.90	1.11

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表3农业机械化水平对样本农户耕地复种指数影响的普通最小二乘法估计结果
Table3.Ordinary least square estimation results of effects of agricultural mechanization level on cultivated land multiple cropping index of agricultural households

变量 Variable	方程?1 Equation 1	方程?2 Equation 2	方程?3 Equation 3	方程?4 Equation 4
农业机械化水平 Agricultural mechanization level	0.114 0*
	(0.060 7)
农业机械数量 Number of agricultural machinery		0.044 5***
		(0.016 2)
农业机械投资 Agricultural machinery investment			0.045 3***
			(0.005 6)
灌溉面积占比 Irrigation area ratio				0.194 0***
				(0.048 4)
户主教育水平 Education of household head	0.005 6	0.006 4	-0.008 9*	0.006 5
	(0.005 3)	(0.005 4)	(0.005 1)	(0.005 4)
户主年龄 Age of household head	-0.009 4***	-0.008 6***	-0.008 3***	-0.009 5***
	(0.001 9)	(0.002 0)	(0.001 8)	(0.001 9)
家庭规模 Household size	0.038 0***	0.036 5***	0.029 3***	0.034 8***
	(0.010 5)	(0.010 6)	(0.010 4)	(0.010 6)
家庭非农收入占比 Ratio of household non-agricultural income	-0.134 0***	-0.115 0***	-0.107 0**	-0.136 0***
	(0.043 8)	(0.044 1)	(0.043 5)	(0.043 3)
家庭土地流转面积 Land transfer area of household	-0.017 8***	-0.019 0***	-0.017 3***	-0.018 9***
	(0.006 8)	(0.006 8)	(0.006 6)	(0.006 7)
农作物种植种类 Crop planting species	0.162 0***	0.157 0***	0.137 0***	0.170 0***
	(0.015 4)	(0.015 6)	(0.014 0)	(0.015 8)
气温变化 Temperature changes	-0.097 3**	-0.103 0**	-0.070 8	-0.087 7*
	(0.048 0)	(0.048 2)	(0.045 7)	(0.047 9)
地区类型 Regional type	0.505 0***	0.525 0***	0.472 0***	0.532 0***
	(0.042 7)	(0.042 8)	(0.040 8)	(0.043 0)
常数 Constant	1.220 0***	1.189 0***	1.093 0***	1.220 0***
	(0.148 0)	(0.147 0)	(0.137 0)	(0.145 0)
R2	0.350 0	0.352 0	0.404 0	0.356 0
***、**、*分别表示自变量在1%、5%、10%的置信水平上显著。括号内数据为标准误。*, **, *** mean that explanatory variables have significant influences on levels of 10%, 5%, and 1%. Data in parenthesis is the standard error.

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表4农业机械化水平对样本农户耕地复种指数影响的IVTobit估计结果
Table4.Results of IVTobit estimation of effects of agricultural mechanization level on cultivated land multiple cropping index of agricultural households

变量 Variable	方程?1 Equation 1	方程?2 Equation 2	方程?3 Equation 3	方程?4 Equation 4	方程?5 Equation 5	方程?6 Equation 6
农业机械化水平 Agricultural mechanization level	0.175 0**		1.231 0***	1.267 0***		1.393 0***
	(0.075 3)		(0.157 0)	(0.157 0)		(0.174 0)
户主教育水平 Education of household head	-0.006 4	0.002 6	-0.013 1**	-0.012 8**	0.003 3	-0.014 6**
	(0.005 7)	(0.002 8)	(0.006 3)	(0.006 4)	(0.002 8)	(0.006 8)
户主年龄 Age of household head	-0.009 7***	0.001 2	-0.005 2**	-0.004 5*	-0.001 3	-0.005 1*
	(0.002 1)	(0.001 3)	(0.002 4)	(0.002 4)	(0.001 3)	(0.002 6)
家庭规模 Household size	0.041 8***	0.002 1	0.032 7***	0.032 8***	-0.001 4	0.035 9***
	(0.011 1)	(0.005 9)	(0.012 6)	(0.012 7)	(0.005 9)	(0.013 4)
家庭非农收入占比 Ratio of household non-agricultural income	-0.137 0***	0.042 0	-0.154 0**	-0.143 0**	0.047 6	-0.159 0**
	(0.046 1)	(0.030 8)	(0.061 8)	(0.062 4)	(0.031 8)	(0.066 5)
家庭土地流转面积 Land transfer area of household	-0.019 9***	0.007 1	-0.034 3***	-0.035 0***	0.007 9	-0.037 7***
	(0.007 2)	(0.005 0)	(0.009 7)	(0.009 8)	(0.004 9)	(0.010 3)
农作物种植种类 Crop planting species	0.183 0***	0.006 6	0.168 0***	0.171 0***	-0.006 5	0.189 0***
	(0.017 6)	(0.008 7)	(0.016 5)	(0.016 7)	(0.008 7)	(0.018 3)
气温变化 Temperature changes	-0.099 7*	0.021 9	-0.104 0*	-0.095 7*	0.019 3	-0.109 0*
	(0.051 3)	(0.030 9)	(0.056 2)	(0.056 6)	(0.030 4)	(0.060 6)
地区类型 Regional type	0.511 0***	0.000 4	0.389 0***	0.373 0***	-0.005 2	0.384 0***
	(0.044 5)	(0.026 3)	(0.057 0)	(0.056 9)	(0.027 1)	(0.060 7)
农业机械化村级平均水平 Agricultural Mechanization Average Village Level		0.981 2***			1.007 0***
		(0.071 4)			(0.068 5)
家庭收入取对数 Iogarithm of household income		0.031 8***			0.018 6***
		(0.012 4)			(0.007 2)
常数 Constant	1.130 0***	0.199 7	0.621 0***	0.557 0***	-0.090 1	0.478 0**
	(0.160 0)	(0.172 7)	(0.186 0)	(0.184 0)	(0.132 0)	(0.202 0)
***、**、*分别表示自变量在1%、5%、10%的置信水平上显著。括号内数据为标准误。*, **, *** mean that explanatory variables have significant influences on levels of 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. Data in parenthesis is the standard error.

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表5农业机械化水平对样本农户耕地复种指数的作用机制检验
Table5.Effect mechanism of agricultural mechanization level on cultivated land multiple cropping index of farmland agricultural households

变量 Variable	方程?1 Equation1	方程?2 Equation 2	方程?3 Equation 3	方程?4 Equation 4	方程?5 Equation 5	方程?6 Equation 6
农业机械化水平 Agricultural mechanization level		0.988 0***		2.160 0***	3.100 0***	5.361 0***
		(0.224 0)		(0.553 0)	(0.742 0)	(1.494 0)
户主教育水平 Education of household head	0.003 9	-0.014 6**	0.003 9	-0.012 0	-0.047 2*	-0.012 5
	(0.003 0)	(0.007 1)	(0.005 0)	(0.016 6)	(0.025 2)	(0.035 2)
户主年龄 Age of household head	-0.000 8	-0.004 8*	0.000 0	-0.005 7	-0.009 8	-0.004 5
	(0.001 7)	(0.002 8)	(0.001 6)	(0.006 3)	(0.008 6)	(0.013 4)
家庭规模 Household size	-0.004 7	0.029 5**	-0.003 1	0.045 8	0.078 9	-0.011 8
	(0.006 6)	(0.013 4)	(0.013 8)	(0.039 1)	(0.048 7)	(0.078 4)
家庭非农收入占比 Ratio of household non-agricultural income	0.047 4	-0.145 0**	0.058 3	-0.249 0	-0.535 0***	-0.142 0
	(0.036 3)	(0.063 0)	(0.061 9)	(0.196 0)	(0.200 0)	(0.362 0)
家庭土地流转面积 Land transfer area of household	0.012 0**	-0.030 6***	0.002 3	-0.040 4**	-0.090 0***	-0.025 5
	(0.005 4)	(0.011 1)	(0.007 0)	(0.020 5)	(0.031 1)	(0.043 4)
农作物种植种类 Crop planting species	-0.040 6***	0.151 0***	0.045 2***	0.230 0***	0.715 0***	0.264 0**
	(0.014 8)	(0.026 4)	(0.007 6)	(0.041 4)	(0.088 9)	(0.114 0)
气温变化 Temperature changes	-0.009 8	-0.094 4	0.059 8*	-0.186 0	-0.114 0	-0.300 0
	(0.037 5)	(0.064 2)	(0.034 7)	(0.124 0)	(0.215 0)	(0.294 0)
地区类型 Regional type	-0.008 8	0.424 0***	-0.037 0	0.162 0	1.069 0***	0.293 0
	(0.034 8)	(0.062 8)	(0.048 5)	(0.152 0)	(0.183 0)	(0.364 0)
农业机械化村级平均水平 Agricultural mechanization average village level	0.846 0***		0.813 0***
	(0.082 4)		(0.131 0)
家庭收入取对数 Logarithm of household income	0.024 2***		0.005 3
	(0.008 5)		(0.011 6)
常数 Constant	0.054 6	0.767 0***	-0.276 0	0.191 0	-2.574 0***	-1.713 0
	(0.168 0)	(0.243 0)	(0.180 0)	(0.465 0)	(0.821 0)	(1.097 0)
***、**、*分别表示自变量在1%、5%、10%的置信水平上显著。*, **, *** mean that explanatory variables have significant influences on levels of 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. Data in parenthesis is the standard error.

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