陈强1,
邓良基1,
李晓2, 3,
何鹏2, 3,
熊鹰2
1.四川农业大学资源学院 成都 611130
2.四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所 成都 610066
3.四川省农业科学院农业大数据研究中心 成都 610066
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目71603178
四川省软科学计划项目2018ZR0196
四川省财政创新能力提升工程2018QNJJ010
详细信息
作者简介:林正雨, 主要研究方向为农业资源利用与区域农业发展研究。E-mail:1456875524@qq.com
中图分类号:F323.2;P467计量
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2018-11-07
录用日期:2019-02-17
刊出日期:2019-06-01
Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change
LIN Zhengyu1, 2,,,CHEN Qiang1,
DENG Liangji1,
LI Xiao2, 3,
HE Peng2, 3,
XIONG Ying2
1. College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
2. Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
3. Big Data Center of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China71603178
the Soft Science Project of Sichuan Province2018ZR0196
the Financial Innovation Ability Enhancement Project of Sichuan Province2018QNJJ010
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Corresponding author:LIN Zhengyu, E-mail:1456875524@qq.com
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摘要
摘要:柑橘是四川省和我国主要水果产品之一。以气候为主的环境变化，对作物空间布局产生了显著影响。为合理优化柑橘生产空间，本研究基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）构建柑橘适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型，运用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）检测模型精度，刀切法（Jackknife）筛选主导环境变量；采用ArcGIS技术对比1980年、2010年四川柑橘适宜区分布，揭示近30 a气候变化背景下四川省柑橘适宜区的分布与变化情况。结果显示：四川柑橘适宜性的主导环境变量主要体现为以光、热、水为特征的气候环境变量。近30 a四川省气候暖干化的变化趋势改变了区域生态系统的结构和功能，引起了柑橘种植适宜区的时空变化。1980—2010年柑橘种植适宜性空间格局呈现出2个变化特征，一是高适宜区呈整体向北迁移的趋势，主要分布在成都平原区与川东北地区过渡地区；中适宜区界线向东南方迁移。二是适宜性级别呈现出逐级调整，低、中适宜区的等级调整变化明显。2010年高适宜区面积约为4.22万km2，中适宜区4.19万km2，低适宜区4.4万km2，大部分地区为不适宜区。以高适宜区为参照，通过政策措施，政府部门可增加在川南地区、成都平原地区南部的柑橘生产布局。本研究客观地反映了气候变化下，四川省柑橘种植适宜性变化特征，合理确定了柑橘适宜性面积及分布，为柑橘空间优化提供了科学依据。最大熵模型在对物种分布进行准确模拟和预测时具有较强应用价值，对作物气候适宜性区划具有重要指导意义。但对于不同区域和作物应选取合适的环境变量、空间尺度和物种采样位置，减少系统累计误差，提高作物气候适宜区划定精度。
关键词:柑橘/
地理分布/
自然适宜性/
最大熵模型/
四川省
Abstract:Citrus is one of the main fruit products of Sichuan Province, China. Due to favorable market expectations and the low occurrence of citrus diseases in Sichuan basin, there is a trend of blind expansion of citrus cultivation. However, climate change has had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops, and has caused the instability and vulnerability of citrus production in Sichuan. In order to optimize the citrus production space, this study established a model of the relationship between the distribution of areas suitable for growing citrus and environmental variables based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), used the ROC curve to determine the model's accuracy, and used the jackknife method to screen out the dominant environmental variables. The distribution of citrus-suitable areas in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010 were compared using ArcGIS, revealing the changes in citrus-suitable areas over nearly 30 years of climate change. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables determining citrus suitability in Sichuan were climatic variables characterized by light, heat, and water. During these 30 years, the trend of climate warming and drying in Sichuan Province changed the structure and function of the regional ecosystem, and caused temporal and spatial variations in citrus-suitable areas. There were two broad changes in the spatial pattern of citrus-suitable areas from 1980 to 2010. First, the highly suitable areas tended to migrate to the north. The boundary of moderately suitable areas located between Chengdu Plain area and northeastern Sichuan Province moved to the southeast. Second, the suitability grade changed in a stepwise fashion. The change in the grades in marginally and moderately suitable areas was obvious. In 2010, the total highly suitable area was about 42 200 km2, moderately suitable areas covered about 41 900 km2, and the least suitable areas covered 44 000 km2; most of the province was not suitable. Using this data of the highly suitable areas, government departments can create policies to increase the quantity of citrus in the south Sichuan region and the southern Shengdu Plain. This study objectively assessed the changes in suitability for planting citrus in Sichuan Province under climate change, and provided a scientific basis for the optimization of citrus space. Application of the maximum entropy model is valuable for accurate simulation and prediction of crop distribution and can be important in guiding crop climatic suitability zoning. However, appropriate environmental variables, spatial scale, and species sampling locations should be selected for different regions and crops to reduce systematic cumulative error and improve the precision of crop climatic suitability zoning.
Key words:Citrus/
Geographical distribution/
Natural suitability/
Maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model/
Sichuan Province
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图1四川省地理分区图
Figure1.Geographical regions map of Sichuan Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2四川省柑橘分布、土壤样点及气象台站分布
Figure2.Distribution of citrus, soil samples and meteorological stations in Sichuan Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的贡献度(AUC)
Figure3.Contribution rates (AUC) of initial environmental variables affecting distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010
The meaning of the abbreviate in the figure was shown in the table 1.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年日照时数分布与变化
Figure4.Distribution of annual sunshine duration in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年均温度分布
Figure5.Distribution of annual average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省最热月均温分布
Figure6.Distribution of July average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图71980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年降雨量分布
Figure7.Distribution of annual precipitation of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图81980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省无霜期分布
Figure8.Distribution of frost-free period of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图91980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省柑橘适宜区空间分布
Figure9.Spatial distribution of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1影响柑橘适宜分布的初始环境变量
Table1.Initial environmental variables affecting suitable distribution of citrus
| 类别 Category | 初始环境变量 Initial environmental variables | 代码 Code | 变量意义 Variable significance |
| 气候类 Climate | 年日照时数Annual sunshine duration | sun | 影响柑橘的光合作用Affecting the photosynthesis of citrus |
| 年平均气温Annual average temperature | ta | 反映年总的热量情况Reflecting the total annual heat | |
| ≥0 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ | att0 | 作物生长期内适宜的热量资源 Suitable heat resource during crop growing period | |
| ≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ | att10 | 喜温植物生长期内的累积热量 Accumulated heat of a thermophilic plant during its growth | |
| ≥10 ℃持续天数 ≥10 ℃ lasting days | att10d | 喜温植物生长期温度强度的持续时间 Duration of temperature intensity during the growth of a thermophilic plant | |
| 最热月平均气温 July average temperature | julyta | 气温过高(≥38 ℃)将抑制柑橘生长 Excessive temperature (≥38 ℃) will inhibit citrus growth | |
| 无霜期Frost-free period | ffp | 柑橘生长时期的长短Affect the growth time of citrus | |
| 年温差 Annual temperature difference | tad | 一年中月平均温度的变化幅度 Variation of the monthly mean temperature | |
| 最冷月平均气温 January average temperature | janta | 柑橘能否安全越冬 Wintering conditions for citrus | |
| 年降水量 Annual precipitation | pre | 年总的水分条件 Total annual moisture conditions | |
| 秋季降水量 Autumn precipitation | preaut | 7—9月的水分供应情况, 影响柑橘果实的大小 Precipitation from July to September affects the size of citrus fruit | |
| 花期日均温 Average daily temperature of flowering | fpta | 4—5月日均温, 影响柑橘基础产量 Average daily temperature from April to May affects the yield of citrus | |
| 土壤类 Soil | 有机质 Organic matter | om | 影响柑橘树基础产量、果实品质 Affecting the base yield and fruit quality of citrus |
| pH | pH | 偏酸(pH < 4.8)和偏碱(pH > 8.5)不适于柑橘生长 Neither pH < 4.8 nor pH > 8.5 is suitable for citrus growth | |
| 全氮 Total nitrogen | tn | 氮肥与转化糖、还原糖、维生素C呈正相关, 与总酸度呈负相关 Nitrogen fertilizer is positively correlated with invert sugar, reducing sugar and vitamin C, and negatively correlated with total acidity | |
| 全磷 Total phosphorus | tp | 磷肥能降低果实酸度, 提高固酸比 Phosphate fertilizer can reduce fruit acidity and improve solid-acid ratio | |
| 全钾 Total potassium | tk | 钾肥可以提高单果重, 增加果皮厚度, 提高可溶性固形物含量, 减少裂果发生 Potassium fertilizer can increase single fruit weight, peel thickness, soluble solid content and reduce cracking | |
| 黏粒含量Clay content | clay | 影响到土壤的保肥供肥、通气排水能力, 间接影响柑橘生长 Affecting fertilizer supply, ventilation and drainage, and indirectly affecting citrus growth | |
| 粉粒含量Silt content | silt | ||
| 砂粒含量Sand content | sand | ||
| 地形类 Topography | 坡度 Slope | slope | 山坡地的排水通气性良好, 易形成逆温层有利于柑橘生长 Drainage and ventilation of slope land is good, easy to form inversion layer, conducive to citrus growth |
| 坡向 Aspect | aspect | 直接影响光照、降水等因素, 并影响到柑橘产量、外型和品质 Yield and quality of citrus are indirectly affected by the redistribution of light and precipitation | |
| 海拔 Elevation | dem | 通过温度间接影响柑橘生长 Indirectly affecting citrus growth by affecting temperature |
下载: 导出CSV表21980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的相对贡献度
Table2.Relative contribution rates of initial environmental variables to the distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010
| 初始环境变量 Initial environmental variable | 相对贡献度Relative contribution rate (%) | 变化幅度 Amplitude of alteration (%) | ||
| 1980 | 2010 | 均值Mean value | ||
| 海拔Elevation | 76.60 | 67.80 | 72.20 | 11.49 |
| 年日照时数Annual sunshine duration | 9.00 | 5.30 | 7.15 | 41.11 |
| 年平均气温Annual average temperature | 4.10 | 5.20 | 4.65 | 26.83 |
| 年降水量Annual precipitation | 2.80 | 5.80 | 4.30 | 107.14 |
| 坡度Slope | 1.80 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 16.67 |
| ≥0 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 100.00 |
| 最热月平均气温July average temperature | 1.20 | 8.30 | 4.75 | 591.67 |
| 粉粒含量Silt | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 100.00 |
| 无霜期Frost-free period | 0.60 | 2.80 | 1.70 | 366.67 |
| 年温差Annual temperature difference | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 50.00 |
| ≥10 ℃持续天数≥10 ℃ lasting days | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 50.00 |
| 黏粒含量Clay | 0.20 | 1.10 | 0.65 | 450.00 |
| 最冷月平均气温January average temperature | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100.00 |
| pH | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100.00 |
| 坡向Aspect | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 全氮Total nitrogen | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.10 | — |
| 秋季降水量Autumn precipitation | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 | — |
| 全钾Total potassium | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.10 | — |
| 花期日均温Average daily temperature of flowering | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 砂粒含量Sand content | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 | — |
| ≥10 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 全磷Total phosphorus | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.20 | — |
| 有机质Organic matter | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
下载: 导出CSV表31980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区的面积变化
Table3.Area variation of different citrus suitable areas in different regions of Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010
| 104km2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 区域 Region | 市州 City | 不适宜区 Non-suitable area | 低适宜区 Low suitable area | 中适宜区 Middle suitable area | 高适宜区 High suitable area | |||||||||||
| 1980 | 2010 | 变化 Change | 1980 | 2010 | 变化 Change | 1980 | 2010 | 变化 Change | 1980 | 2010 | 变化 Change | |||||
| 成都平原区 Chengdu Plain Region | 成都市 Chengdu | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.24 | -0.04 | 0.51 | 0.43 | -0.08 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.03 | |||
| 德阳市 Deyang | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.14 | -0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.01 | ||||
| 绵阳市 Mianyang | 1.15 | 1.27 | 0.12 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.05 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 眉山市 Meishan | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | -0.06 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.07 | ||||
| 资阳市 Ziyang | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.22 | -0.01 | ||||
| 川东北地区 Northeast Sichuan Region | 南充市 Nanchong | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.35 | -0.08 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.06 | |||
| 遂宁市 Suining | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.05 | -0.07 | ||||
| 达州市 Dazhou | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.42 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.46 | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.02 | ||||
| 广安市 Guang’an | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.09 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.29 | 0.27 | -0.02 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.04 | ||||
| 巴中市 Bazhong | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.09 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 广元市 Guangyuan | 1.26 | 1.17 | -0.09 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 川南地区 South Sichuan Region | 自贡市 Zigong | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | |||
| 内江市 Neijiang | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.40 | -0.03 | ||||
| 泸州市 Luzhou | 0.10 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.44 | 0.43 | -0.01 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.01 | ||||
| 宜宾市 Yibin | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 0.64 | -0.08 | ||||
| 乐山市 Leshan | 0.39 | 0.38 | -0.01 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.00 | ||||
| 川西北地区 Northwest Sichuan Region | 阿坝州 Aba | 8.25 | 8.26 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 甘孜州 Ganzi | 15.05 | 15.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 攀西山地区 Panxi Region | 攀枝花市 Panzhihua | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 雅安市 Ya’an | 1.18 | 1.14 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 | ||||
| 凉山州 Liangshan | 5.98 | 5.96 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 合计 Total | 35.66 | 35.78 | 0.11 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 0.15 | 4.47 | 4.19 | -0.28 | 4.20 | 4.22 | 0.02 | ||||
下载: 导出CSV表41980—2010年四川省柑橘适宜区转移矩阵
Table4.Transfer matrix of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2010
| km2 | ||||||
| 2010 | ||||||
| 不适宜区 Non-suitable area | 低适宜区 Low suitable area | 中适宜区 Middle suitable area | 高适宜区 High suitable area | 总计 Total | ||
| 1980 | 不适宜区Non-suitable area | 354 162.10 | 2 618.73 | 0.37 | — | 356 781.20 |
| 低适宜区Low suitable area | 3 816.55 | 36 274.24 | 2 414.26 | 0.59 | 42 505.63 | |
| 中适宜区Middle suitable area | 1.05 | 5 146.21 | 36 334.38 | 3 281.45 | 44 763.09 | |
| 高适宜区High suitable area | — | 3.14 | 3 131.72 | 38 929.07 | 42 063.93 | |
| 总计Total | 357 979.69 | 44 042.31 | 41 880.73 | 42 211.12 | 486 113.85 | |
下载: 导出CSV表51980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区面积及2015年柑橘生产面积
Table5.Areas of different citrus suitable areas in 1980 and 2010 and production areas in 2015 in different regions of Sichuan Province
| 104km2 | ||||||||||||
| 区域 Region | 不适宜区 Non-suitable area | 低适宜区 Low suitable area | 中适宜区 Middle suitable area | 高适宜区 High suitable area | 2015柑橘面积 Production area in 2015 | |||||||
| 1980 | 2010 | 1980 | 2010 | 1980 | 2010 | 1980 | 2010 | |||||
| 成都平原区 Chengdu Plain Region | 1.51 | 1.74 | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 0.12 | |||
| 川东北地区 Northeast Sichuan Region | 2.40 | 2.33 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.99 | 1.96 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.07 | |||
| 川南地区 South Sichuan Region | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 2.56 | 2.46 | 0.08 | |||
| 川西北地区 Northwest Sichuan Region | 23.31 | 23.31 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 攀西山地区 Panxi Region | 7.90 | 7.85 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | |||
| 合计 Total | 35.66 | 35.78 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 4.47 | 4.19 | 4.20 | 4.22 | 0.28 | |||
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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