张雪花1,,,
滑永胜1
1.天津工业大学环境经济研究所 天津 300387
2.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 北京 100081
基金项目: 国家社会科学基金项目18BJY079
天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划TD13-5038
详细信息
作者简介:韩成吉, 主要研究方向为农业资源与环境经济。E-mail:chengji_han@sina.com
通讯作者:张雪花, 主要研究方向为资源环境经济与农业生态系统。E-mail:xuehua671231@163.com
中图分类号:F301.21;N941.3;X196计量
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出版历程
收稿日期:2018-07-13
录用日期:2018-10-22
刊出日期:2019-03-01
Development of strategies for joint allocation of cultivated land and ecological land in Tianjin based on system dynamics
HAN Chengji1, 2,,ZHANG Xuehua1,,,
HUA Yongsheng1
1. Department of Environmental Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China
2. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: This study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China18BJY079
the Training Plan for Innovation Teams in Tianjin Colleges and UniversitiesTD13-5038
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Corresponding author:ZHANG Xuehua, E-mail:xuehua671231@163.com
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摘要
摘要:以复杂系统模拟为手段，以生态与经济双赢为目标，进行耕地与生态用地的联合调配策略的设计、仿真与优选，旨在通过两种土地的合理调配，在保障粮食安全前提下，以生态修复促超负荷耕地休养。在人口、经济、耕地和生态用地各子系统及其要素分析的基础上，以耕地污染严重、后备用地紧缺、地处《全国主体功能区规划》中的优化开发区域——天津市为例，建立耕地与生态用地联合调配的系统动力学模型(Tianjin System Dynamic，TSD)并进行有效性检验。结果显示，模型具有较好的稳定性，而且仿真值与实际值误差 < 5%，因此模型有效。在确定模型有效之后，应用TSD模型模拟不同策略下的天津市2016—2025年耕地与生态用地联合调配结果。本文设置了两种与系统惯性发展相比较的调配策略——耕地资源省域内调配策略和耕地资源跨省域调配策略，并对上述3种情景分别进行仿真。结果显示：1)按当前的惯性趋势发展，2025年受损耕地可以得到修复，耕地数量能够满足耕地红线要求，生态安全也能够得到保障，但是耕地产出压力会突破警戒阈值，因此存在潜在的粮食危机；2)耕地与生态用地省内调配情景下，虽然可以降低耕地的产出压力，但生态安全有所减损，而且耕地产出压力仍高于警戒阈值；3)允许耕地跨省域调配情景下，耕地产出压力可以降低到警戒值之下，而且生态安全能够得到更好的保障。比较3种仿真结果可知，允许耕地跨省域占补情景下的耕地与生态用地联合调配效果最好，可以使耕地与生态用地联合调配更灵活，更好地保障生态安全和粮食安全。以上说明本文所构建的TSD模型进行耕地与生态用地联合调配研究是有效的，一方面可以为耕地与生态用地联合调配策略的优选提供支撑，另一方面为后备耕地紧缺的优化开发地区确定跨省域占补数量提供科学依据。
关键词:耕地/
生态用地/
土地修复/
系统动力学/
调配策略/
天津市
Abstract:Tianjin was prioritized as a functional development region in China, but its cultivated land is seriously polluted and exhausted. This study adopted complex systems modeling to develop a land allocation strategy that allows food production to be secured and land recuperated in Tianjin, where is an optimum development area in the National Main Functional Areas Planning with seriously polluted cultivated land and scarcely reserved land resources. Upon analyzing the subsystems of population, economy, and cultivated land and ecological land, a restoration model, named Tianjin System Dynamics (TSD), was developed to optimize joint allocation of cultivated land and ecological land. Validity test showed that the model had a good stability and the prediction error was < 5%. The model was then used to simulate land allocation between cultivated land and ecological land from 2016 to 2025 for Tianjin under the following strategies:inertial, in-provincial allocation, and inter-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources. The analysis showed that, with the current practice, damaged cultivated land could still be repaired, but only by 2025. Cultivated land could then still be maintained above the red line minimum, and the land ecology could still be preserved. However, food production might not be secured, as the productivity of cultivated land would be pressed to drop to the threshold. The in-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources would alleviate the pressure on cultivated land while still maintaining production above the threshold, but the ecological security of the land would be impaired, the output pressure of cultivated land still be higher than the warning threshold. In contrast, the scenario of the inter-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources could minimize land pressure to below the warning value, and improve land ecological security as a result of its flexibility. The TSD model developed optimized allocation between cultivated land and ecological land for Tianjin, and could be used for land restoration planning for other regions that are lacking in land reserve.
Key words:Cultivated land/
Ecological land/
Land restoration/
System dynamics/
Allocation strategy/
Tianjin City
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图1耕地与生态用地联合调配系统的各子系统相互关系图
Figure1.Relationship among subsystems of the joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2天津市耕地与生态用地联合调配系统(TSD)的系统因果关系图
+表示正效应, -表示负效应。
Figure2.System causality diagram of joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land of Tianjin (TSD)
+shows positive effect, -shows negative effect.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图3天津市耕地与生态用地联合调配系统(TSD)流图
在系统结构中对于决策变量(被解释变量)粮食单产, 认为其受到农机投入、劳动力投入、化肥施用量和农药使用量4个解释变量的影响, 在没有完备的经验系数的情况下, 拟运用C-D生产函数回归系统参数, 但是回归结果不理想, 存在严重多重共线性, 经逐步回归后, 只有农机投入显著性较好, 在这种情况下, 简化模型结构, 仅以农业固定资产投入表征农业投入。
Figure3.Flow diagram of joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land of Tianjin (TSD)
In the system structure, the grain output of decision variables (explanatory variables) is affected by four explanatory variables of agricultural machinery input, labor input, fertilizer application and pesticide use. With the absence of a complete empirical coefficient, the C-D production function is used to regress the system parameters. But the regression results are not ideal with a serious multiple collinearity. After stepwise regression, only the agricultural machinery investment is better. In this case, the model structure is simplified and the agricultural investment is represented by the investment of agricultural fixed assets.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图42006——2025年不同时间步长下天津市耕地面积的仿真结果
Figure4.Simulation results of cultivated land area in Tianjin under different time steps from 2006 to 2025
The time steps of TIME STEP=0.25, TIME STEP=0.5 and TIME STEP=1 are 3, 6 and 12 months, respectively.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图52016——2025年不同情景下天津市耕地面积、生态用地面积、耕地压力指数与生态绿当量的仿真结果
情景1:系统惯性; 情景2:耕地资源省内调配; 情景3:耕地资源跨省调配。
Figure5.Simulation results of cultivated land area, ecological land area, cultivated land pressure index and ecological green equivalent in Tianjin from 2016 to 2025 under different scenarios
Scenario 1: current trend development; Scenario 2: in-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources; Scenario 3: inter-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1耕地与生态用地联合调控系统模型仿真情景设置
Table1.Scenarios design of simulation of joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land of Tianjin
| 情景名称 Scenario name | 情景特点 Scenario characteristics | 模型调整 Model adjustment |
| 情景1 Scenario 1 | 现状趋势发展型 Current trend development | 模型原始数据, 各变量不变 Model raw data, the variables are unchanged. |
| 情景2 Scenario 2 | 耕地资源省内调配 In-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources | 提高退生转耕速率, 加大整理复垦开发补充耕地力度, 以扩大人均耕地面积 Increasing the rate of returning cultivated land, the intensity of rehabilitation and reclamation, and the area of cultivated land per capita |
| 情景3 Scenario 3 | 耕地资源跨省调配 Inter-provincial allocation of cultivated land resources | 加入跨省域补充耕地外生变量, 在保证生态安全的基础上, 提高复垦速率, 一部分耕地由生态修复补充, 另一部分则跨省调配 Adding cross-provincial supplementary cultivated land exogenous variables. On the basis of ensuring ecological security, improving the reclamation rate. Part of the cultivated land is supplemented by ecological restoration, and the other part is inter-provincial allocation. |
下载: 导出CSV表2天津市耕地与生态用地联合调配系统(TSD)主要变量的历史性检验
Table2.Historical test of main variables of the joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land of Tianjin (TSD)
| 年份 Year | 耕地面积?Cultivated area | 生态用地面积?Ecological land area | 总人口?Total population | ||||||||
| 实际值 Actual value (104 hm2) | 模拟值 Simulation value (104 hm2) | 误差 Error (%) | 实际值 Actual value (104 hm2) | 模拟值 Simulation value (104 hm2) | 误差 Error (%) | 实际值 Actual value (104 people) | 模拟值 Simulation value (104 people) | 误差 Error (%) | |||
| 2006 | 41.45 | 41.45 | 0 | —— | —— | —— | 1 075.00 | 1 075.00 | 0 | ||
| 2007 | 40.60 | 41.46 | 2.12 | —— | —— | —— | 1 115.00 | 1 116.25 | 0.11 | ||
| 2008 | 40.44 | 41.41 | 2.39 | —— | —— | —— | 1 176.00 | 1 159.08 | -1.44 | ||
| 2009 | 40.26 | 41.28 | 2.54 | 33.40 | 33.91 | 1.54 | 1 228.16 | 1 203.55 | -2.00 | ||
| 2010 | 39.88 | 41.08 | 3.02 | 33.63 | 34.23 | 1.78 | 1 299.29 | 1 249.73 | -3.81 | ||
| 2011 | 39.65 | 40.89 | 3.12 | 33.84 | 34.55 | 2.10 | 1 354.58 | 1 297.68 | -4.20 | ||
| 2012 | 39.54 | 40.69 | 2.91 | 34.08 | 34.87 | 2.33 | 1 413.15 | 1 347.47 | -4.65 | ||
| 2013 | 39.25 | 40.49 | 3.17 | 34.53 | 35.20 | 1.94 | 1 472.21 | 1 399.17 | -4.96 | ||
| 2014 | 38.88 | 40.30 | 3.65 | 34.92 | 35.53 | 1.75 | 1 516.81 | 1 452.85 | -4.22 | ||
| 2015 | 38.96 | 40.10 | 2.93 | 35.21 | 35.87 | 1.86 | 1 546.95 | 1 508.60 | -2.48 | ||
| 2016 | 39.08 | 39.91 | 2.12 | 35.54 | 36.20 | 1.87 | 1 562.12 | 1 566.48 | 0.28 | ||
| ??缺失2009年以前的生态用地数据。There is a lack of ecological land data before 2009. | |||||||||||
下载: 导出CSV表32016——2025年天津市耕地与生态用地联合调配系统(TSD)的主要变量的仿真结果
Table3.Simulation results of main variables of the joint allocation system of cultivated land and ecological land in Tianjin (TSD) from 2016 to 2025
| 年份 Year | 总人口 Total population (104 people) | 耕地面积 Cultivated area (104 hm2) | 生态退耕规模 Ecological returning scale (104 hm2) | 生态用地 Ecological land (104 hm2) | 生态绿当量 Ecological green equivalent | 退耕还生土地 Returning farmland to ecological land (104 hm2) | 粮食单产 Grain yield (t·hm-2) | 农业总产值 Agriculture GDP (108￥) | 人均耕地面积 Cultivated area per cap. (hm2) | 耕地压力指数 Cultivated land pressure index |
| 2016 | 1 566.48 | 39.91 | 2.56 | 36.20 | 1.40 | 2.54 | 5.18 | 213.94 | 0.03 | 3.28 |
| 2017 | 1 626.59 | 39.71 | 2.66 | 36.55 | 1.42 | 2.64 | 5.19 | 216.81 | 0.02 | 3.56 |
| 2018 | 1 689.00 | 39.52 | 2.76 | 36.89 | 1.43 | 2.74 | 5.21 | 219.10 | 0.02 | 3.84 |
| 2019 | 1 753.80 | 39.32 | 2.86 | 37.24 | 1.44 | 2.85 | 5.24 | 220.99 | 0.02 | 4.14 |
| 2020 | 1 821.09 | 39.13 | 2.97 | 37.59 | 1.45 | 2.96 | 5.25 | 222.52 | 0.02 | 4.48 |
| 2021 | 1 890.97 | 38.93 | 3.09 | 37.95 | 1.46 | 3.07 | 5.27 | 223.74 | 0.02 | 4.85 |
| 2022 | 1 963.52 | 38.74 | 3.21 | 38.31 | 1.47 | 3.19 | 5.29 | 224.68 | 0.02 | 5.25 |
| 2023 | 2 038.86 | 38.54 | 3.33 | 38.68 | 1.49 | 3.31 | 5.30 | 225.38 | 0.02 | 5.69 |
| 2024 | 2 117.09 | 38.35 | 3.46 | 39.05 | 1.50 | 3.44 | 5.31 | 225.87 | 0.02 | 6.17 |
| 2025 | 2 198.32 | 38.15 | 3.59 | 39.42 | 1.51 | 3.57 | 5.32 | 226.16 | 0.02 | 6.69 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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