中国城镇化对农业生态效率的影响——基于中国13个粮食主产区2009—2018年面板数据

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尚杰,
吉雪强,
陈玺名
东北林业大学经济管理学院哈尔滨 150040
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目71573036

详细信息

作者简介:尚杰, 主要从事农业经济、环境科学与资源利用研究。E-mail:13576274061@163.com

中图分类号:F323.22

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-02-27
录用日期:2020-05-26
刊出日期:2020-08-01

Study on the impact of China's urbanization on agricultural ecological effi-ciency:Based on panel data of 13 major grain-producing regions in China from 2009 to 2018

SHANG Jie,
JI Xueqiang,
CHEN Ximing
School of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China71573036

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摘要
摘要:城镇化对农业生态效率会产生重要影响。为更全面和准确分析城镇化对农业生态效率的影响，本文基于中国13个粮食主产区2009-2018年面板数据，利用3阶段非期望产出SBM-DEA模型、熵值法、Tobit回归等多种模型和方法，在理论分析基础上从多个角度就城镇化对农业生态效率的影响进行研究。结果表明：1）外生环境影响和随机干扰对农业生态效率测度会产生显著影响，并进一步作用于城镇化对农业生态效率的影响。2）中国13个粮食主产区2009-2018年间农业生态效率呈现持续增长趋势，剔除外生环境影响和随机干扰后，年度效率均值由2009年的0.53提升至2018年的0.80；但不同地区间存在较大差距，2018年河北等地区农业生态效率达到前沿面，但是内蒙古农业生态效率只有0.45。3）城镇化发展整体上能够促进农业生态效率的提高，城镇化综合指数在1%的水平上显著正向影响农业生态效率，影响系数为0.60。4）城镇化各指标对农业生态效率的影响存在差异，从各指标情况来看，人口城镇化率负向影响农业生态效率，但不显著；城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇经济密度正向影响农业生态效率；二三产业产值占GDP比重、建成区面积比重、人均建成区面积等指标负向影响农业生态效率。为进一步发挥城镇化对农业生态效率的促进作用，本文根据研究结果从人口、经济、土地城镇化3个方面提出了政策建议。
关键词:城镇化/
农业生态效率/
粮食主产区/
DEA/
Tobit
Abstract:Urbanization is an important factor to impact agricultural ecological efficiency. However, most of the existing studies have discussed the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency from a single perspective. Further, these studies are often affected by the impact of exogenous environment or other random factors during the measurement of agricultural ecological efficiency. To analyze the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency more comprehensively and accurately, the present study used the three-stage SBM-DEA model, which provides simultaneously evaluation of both the undesirable and desirable outputs, entropy value method, and Tobit model, based on panel data obtained from 13 major grain-producing regions in China from 2009 to 2018. Various models and methods were used to study the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency from multiple perspectives based on theoretical analysis. Our results showed that: 1) the impact of exogenous environment and random interference significantly impacted the agricultural ecological efficiency. After excluding these impacts, the agricultural ecological efficiency of the 13 major grain-producing regions in China changed significantly. Additionally, unlike the existing studies, the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency too changed, after the effects of exogenous environment and random interference were removed. 2) The agricultural ecological efficiency of China's 13 major grain-producing regions showed a continuous growth trend from 2009 to 2018. The average annual efficiency, after excluding the impact of exogenous environment and random interference, increased from 0.53 in 2009 to 0.80 in 2018. However, there was a big gap in the agricultural ecological efficiency among different regions. For example, in 2018, the agricultural ecological efficiency of Hebei and other regions reached the frontier (1.00), but that of Inner Mongolia was only 0.45. 3) Urbanization as a whole improved the agricultural ecological efficiency. The comprehensive index of urbanization significantly affected agricultural ecological efficiency (at a level of 1%, impact coefficient: 0.60). 4) Various indicators of urbanization differently impacted the agricultural ecological efficiency. The population urbanization rate showed an insignificant negative impact on the agricultural ecological efficiency. The per capita disposable income of urban residents and urban economic density significantly positively affected the agricultural ecological efficiency. The output value of the secondary and tertiary industries, proportion of built-up area and per capita built-up area had significantly negative effect on the agricultural ecological efficiency. To further elucidate the role of urbanization in promoting agricultural eco-efficiency, this article proposed suggestions to modify the relevant policies, based on the research results from three aspects of population, economy, and land urbanization.
Key words:Urbanization/
Agro-ecological efficiency/
Main grain production areas/
DEA/
Tobit

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表1城镇化综合指数评价指标体系
Table1.Evaluation indicator system of comprehensive index of urbanization

目标层 Target level	系统层指标 System-level indicator	评价指标 Evaluating indicator	计算方法 Computational method
城镇化 Urbanization	人口城镇化 Population urbanization	人口城镇化率 Population urbanization rate	统计年鉴查询 Statistical Yearbook queries
	人口城镇化 Population urbanization	城镇居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of urban residents	统计年鉴查询 Statistical Yearbook queries
	经济城镇化 Economicurbanization	城镇经济密度 Urban economic density	第二三产业产值/土地面积 Output value of secondary and tertiary industries/land area
	经济城镇化 Economicurbanization	第二三产业占GDP的比重 Proportion of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP	第二三产业产值/GDP Output value of secondary and tertiary industries/GDP
	土地城镇化 Land urbanization	建成区面积比重 Proportion of built-up area	建成区面积/土地面积 Built-up area/total area
	土地城镇化 Land urbanization	人均建成区面积 Per capita built-up area	辖区建成区面积/辖区总人口 Built-up area/total population

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表2农业生态效率投入-产出指标体系
Table2.Agricultural eco-efficiency input-output index system

指标类型 Index type	分类指标 Sub index	变量及说明 Variables and descriptions
投入指标 Input index	劳动力Labour force	农业从业人员Number of employees in farm (×10⁴person)
	土地Land	农作物总播种面积Planting area of crops (khm²)
	化肥Chemical fertilizer	化肥施用量Fertilizers consumption (×10⁴t)
	农药Pesticide	农药使用量Pesticides usage (t)
	农膜Agricultural film	农膜使用量Agricultural film consumption (t)
	农业机械动力 Agricultural machinery power	农业机械总动力 Total power of agricultural machinery (×10⁴kW)
	灌溉Irrigation	有效灌溉面积Effective irrigation area (khm²)
期望产出指标 Output index	农业总产值 Total output value of farm	农业总产值Total output value of farm (×10⁸￥)
非期望产出指标 Undesirable output index	碳排放 Carbon emission	化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、播耕碳排放总和 Total carbon emissions from fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural diesel, irrigation and sowing (×10⁴t)
非期望产出指标 Undesirable output index	污染排放 Pollution emissions	化肥污染量、农药污染量、农膜残留量总和 Total quantity of chemical fertilizer and pesticide pollutions, and total residues of agricultural film (×10⁴t)

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表32009—2018年第1、3阶段中国主要粮食产区农业生态效率
Table3.Agricultural ecological efficiencies in the main grain-producing regions of China in the first and third stagesfrom 2009 to 2018

省份Province	2009		2010		2011		2012		2013		2014		2015		2016		2017		2018
	阶段Stage
	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3	1	3
河北Hebei	0.46	0.63	0.49	0.66	0.50	0.71	0.51	0.72	0.53	0.74	0.56	0.75	0.59	0.75	0.61	0.81	0.76	0.89	1.00	1.00
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.40	0.35	0.42	0.36	0.44	0.39	0.44	0.40	0.47	0.42	0.46	0.41	0.48	0.42	0.49	0.42	0.50	0.43	0.55	0.45
辽宁Liaoning	0.59	0.43	0.60	0.43	0.65	0.47	0.68	0.49	0.77	0.51	0.75	0.52	1.00	0.55	0.81	0.54	0.95	0.55	1.00	0.56
吉林Jilin	0.46	0.38	0.48	0.40	0.50	0.42	0.51	0.43	0.55	0.45	0.57	0.47	0.58	0.48	0.59	0.48	0.85	0.51	1.00	0.52
黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.46	0.50	0.48	0.51	0.52	0.55	0.52	0.56	0.54	0.60	0.54	0.63	0.59	0.66	0.65	0.72	0.68	0.78	1.00	1.00
江苏Jiangsu	0.62	0.65	0.68	0.67	0.70	0.68	0.71	0.65	0.75	0.65	0.79	0.67	0.85	0.76	0.88	0.81	0.81	0.93	1.00	1.00
安徽Anhui	0.35	0.43	0.36	0.44	0.36	0.44	0.36	0.43	0.36	0.44	0.38	0.46	0.40	0.48	0.42	0.50	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.55
江西Jiangxi	0.37	0.34	0.37	0.34	0.38	0.35	0.39	0.36	0.46	0.40	0.48	0.41	0.50	0.42	0.53	0.45	0.59	0.47	0.66	0.50
山东Shandong	0.52	0.72	0.54	0.73	0.57	0.75	0.60	0.76	0.65	0.79	0.71	0.84	0.78	0.87	0.88	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
河南Henan	0.44	0.68	0.46	0.72	0.47	0.73	0.48	0.74	0.49	0.76	0.51	0.80	0.54	0.85	0.58	0.94	0.67	1.00	1.00	1.00
湖北Hubei	0.51	0.54	0.52	0.55	0.54	0.58	0.57	0.61	0.60	0.64	0.62	0.67	0.67	0.71	0.78	0.83	0.87	0.92	1.00	1.00
湖南Hunan	0.52	0.62	0.55	0.65	0.58	0.68	0.57	0.70	0.57	0.71	0.61	0.73	0.66	0.75	0.70	0.77	0.78	0.81	0.85	0.86
四川Sichuan	0.57	0.68	0.60	0.71	0.62	0.74	0.65	0.77	0.67	0.79	0.70	0.81	0.72	0.82	0.84	0.94	0.90	1.00	1.00	1.00
均值Mean	0.48	0.53	0.50	0.55	0.53	0.58	0.54	0.59	0.57	0.61	0.59	0.63	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.71	0.76	0.76	0.89	0.80

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表4第2阶段环境变量对农业生态效率冗余变量影响分析结果
Table4.Analysis of effects of environmental variables on redundant variables of agricultural ecological efficiency in the phase 2

冗余来源 Redundant source	变量 Variable	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error	冗余来源 Redundant source	变量 Variable	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error
劳动投入 Labour input	β0	-1.65E+01	-2.23E+01	农膜投入 Agricultural film input	β3	-1.64E-03^***	4.80E-04
	β1	1.92E-02	1.18E-02		σ²	1.89E+09^***	1.00E+00
	β2	-8.22E-06^**	-3.70E-06		γ	9.11E-01^***	1.18E-02
	β3	-9.45E-07	-1.72E-06	农业机械动力投入 Power input for agricultural machinery	β0	-1.12E+03^*	6.23E+02
	σ²	2.20E+04^***	2.37E+00		β1	9.20E-01^***	2.95E-01
	$\gamma $	9.16E-01^***	1.11E-02		β2	-1.52E-04^*	9.08E-05
土地投入 Land input	β0	1.78E+03^***	5.23E+02		β3	-1.30E-04^***	4.21E-05
	β1	-2.40E-01	2.53E-01		σ²	6.10E+06^***	1.09E+00
	β2	-1.60E-04^*	8.47E-05		$\gamma $	8.56E-01^***	1.89E-02
	β3	-1.78E-07	4.33E-05	灌溉投入 Irrigation input	β0	1.49E+03^***	6.83E+00
	σ²	6.15E+06^***	1.00E+00		β1	-2.77E-01	4.79E-01
	γ	8.95E-01^***	1.37E-02		β2	-1.78E-04	2.11E-04
化肥投入 Fertilizer input	β0	3.52E+01	2.23E+01		β3	2.56E-04^***	9.26E-05
	β1	3.93E-02^***	1.35E-02		σ²	1.03E+07^***	1.00E+00
	β2	-1.42E-05^***	3.75E-06		γ	7.51E-02	1.21E-01
	β3	-9.43E-06^***	2.07E-06	碳排放 Carbon emission	β0	1.55E+02^***	3.87E+01
	σ²	1.59E+04^***	1.03E+00		β1	4.93E-02^*	2.49E-02
	γ	9.16E-01^***	1.09E-02		β2	-2.68E-05^***	7.96E-06
农药投入 Pesticide input	β0	2.90E+04^***	2.55E+00		β3	-1.30E-05^***	3.34E-06
	β1	7.75E+00^**	3.45E+00		σ²	3.01E+04^***	1.00E+00
	β2	-4.91E-03^***	1.05E-03		γ	8.63E-01^***	1.79E-02
	β3	-2.67E-03^***	5.89E-04	面源污染排放 Non-point source pollution emission	β0	2.52E+01^*	1.49E+01
	σ²	1.41E+09^***	1.00E+00		β1	2.61E-02^***	8.95E-03
	γ	9.10E-01^***	1.18E-02		β2	-9.51E-06^***	2.51E-06
农膜投入 Agricultural film input	β0	-8.59E+03^***	1.01E+00		β3	-6.33E-06^***	1.37E-06
	β1	-1.95E+00	2.83E+00		σ²	6.81E+03^***	1.04E+00
	β2	2.95E-03^***	1.03E-03		γ	9.14E-01^***	1.16E-02
、和*表示在10%、5%和1%水平显著; β0为模型截距项, β1是第一产业产值参数估计值, β2是财政支农支出参数估计值, β3是研究经费支出参数估计值, σ²是模型中由随机噪声和无效效应符合作用造成的偏差, γ是无效影响因素对个体效率差异的解释程度。, and * represent significant difference at levels of 10%, 5%, 1%, respectively. β0 is the model intercept term; β1 is the first industry output value parameter estimate; β2 is the financial expenditure parameter estimate; β3 is the research expenditure parameter estimate. σ² is the deviation caused by the coincidence of random noise and invalid effect in the model, and γ is the explanation degree of invalid influence factors to individual efficiency difference.

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表52009—2018年中国粮食主产区城镇化综合指数
Table5.Comprehensive indexes of urbanization of main grain-producing regions of China in 2009–2018

省份Province	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
河北Hebei	0.34	0.38	0.43	0.46	0.49	0.52	0.51	0.50	0.50	0.52
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.26	0.28	0.32	0.34	0.36	0.37	0.39	0.41	0.42	0.43
辽宁Liaoning	0.31	0.36	0.40	0.43	0.46	0.49	0.51	0.52	0.50	0.52
吉林Jilin	0.15	0.17	0.19	0.19	0.22	0.24	0.25	0.28	0.31	0.33
黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.15	0.17	0.19	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.22	0.23	0.23	0.24
江苏Jiangsu	0.46	0.54	0.61	0.66	0.69	0.74	0.77	0.81	0.87	0.90
安徽Anhui	0.23	0.28	0.33	0.38	0.41	0.44	0.48	0.51	0.56	0.58
江西Jiangxi	0.17	0.22	0.28	0.31	0.35	0.39	0.40	0.41	0.45	0.48
山东Shandong	0.34	0.39	0.43	0.48	0.53	0.56	0.59	0.62	0.67	0.70
河南Henan	0.27	0.30	0.36	0.40	0.44	0.47	0.49	0.52	0.58	0.63
湖北Hubei	0.12	0.16	0.19	0.23	0.26	0.30	0.32	0.35	0.38	0.42
湖南Hunan	0.18	0.21	0.26	0.29	0.33	0.37	0.39	0.43	0.49	0.49
四川Sichuan	0.14	0.19	0.23	0.27	0.30	0.34	0.31	0.36	0.40	0.43
均值Mean	0.24	0.28	0.33	0.36	0.39	0.42	0.43	0.46	0.49	0.51

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表6城镇化对农业生态效率影响的估计结果
Table6.Effect of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency

解释变量 Explanatory variable	第1次估计First estimate				第2次估计Second estimate
	Tobit		Ols		Tobit		Ols
	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error	估计系数 Estimated coefficient	标准误差 Standard error
城镇化综合指数 Comprehensive index of urbanization	0.60^***	0.10	0.54^***	0.09	—	—	—	—
人口城镇化率 Population urbanization rate					-0.05	0.08	-0.05	0.08
城镇居民人均可支配收入 Per capital disposable income of urban residents					0.51^***	0.10	0.48^***	0.10
城镇经济密度 Urban economic density					0.72^***	0.19	0.65^***	0.18
第二三产业占GDP的比重 Proportion of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP					-0.33^***	0.09	-0.32^***	0.09
建成区面积比重Proportion of built-up area					-0.26^**	0.13	-0.23^**	0.12
人均建成区面积 Per capital built-up area					-0.28^***	0.07	-0.28^***	0.07
cons	0.42^***	0.04	0.43^***	0.03	0.67^***	0.04	0.67^***	0.04
sigma	0.18	0.01			0.13	0.01
Log likelihood	20.74				60.74
LR chi2	30.23(Prod > chi2=0.00)		Prod > F=0.00		110.22(Prod > chi2=0.00)		Prod > F=0.00
、、*表示在10%、5%、1%水平显著。, , * represent significant effects at levels of 10%, 5%, 1%, respectively.

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