李建琴2,,
1.福建省农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所 福州 350003
2.浙江大学经济学院 杭州 310027
基金项目: 福建省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项2020R1101
详细信息
作者简介:杨军, 主要研究方向为生态农业产业经济。E-mail:756165940@qq.com
通讯作者:李建琴, 主要研究方向为农业产业经济。E-mail:zjhzljq@126.com
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收稿日期:2019-12-11
录用日期:2020-03-25
刊出日期:2020-08-01
Research on the relationship between agricultural economic growth, agricul-tural structure, and agricultural non-point source pollution in Fujian Province
YANG Jun1,,LI Jianqin2,,
1. Institute of Agricultural Economy and Sci-technological Information, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, China
2. School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Funds: the Public Welfare Foundation of Fujian Province2020R1101
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Corresponding author:LI Jianqin, E-mail: zjhzljq@126.com
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摘要
摘要:农业面源污染已经成为影响社会经济可持续发展的突出问题，而农业结构被认为在其中发挥了重要的调节作用。本研究在根据曲劳（Truog）的养分平衡法理论测算了农业面源污染的主要来源——过剩氮总量的基础上，运用基于VECM模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，考察了福建省1998—2017年农业经济增长、农业面源污染、农业结构之间的关系。研究结果表明：1）农业经济增长、农业面源污染、农业结构之间存在长期均衡关系。2）格兰杰检验结果表明：农业面源污染与农业经济增长互为格兰杰原因；农业结构分别是面源污染和农业经济增长的格兰杰原因，农业经济增长是农业结构的格兰杰原因。3）方差分解结果显示：农业经济增长与农业结构对农业面源污染的冲击影响很小，对农业面源污染的预测方差贡献分别仅有4.31%和4.02%。但农业面源污染对农业经济增长的冲击影响较大，向前推进10年，其预测方差中来自农业面源污染的方差贡献达47.02%。为此，福建省应在继续保持对农业面源污染严格治理力度的基础上，重视绿色化农业技术和模式的开发应用，加强农业基础设施建设，制订更加明确精准的绿色农业导向性政策，加强绿色消费观念的引导和培养。
关键词:面源污染/
经济增长/
农业结构/
VECM模型/
脉冲响应分析
Abstract:Agricultural structure is considered to play an important role in regulating the dual pressures of economic growth and non-point source pollution from agricultural development. The total amount of surplus nitrogen, which is the main source of agricultural non-point source pollution, was calculated according to Truog's nutrient balance theory. The impulse response function and variance decomposition methods, based on the vector error correction model (VECM), were used to investigate and explain the relationship among agricultural economic growth, agricultural non-point source pollution, and agricultural structure in Fujian Province from 1998 to 2017. The research results showed that: 1) there was a relationship of long-term equilibrium among agricultural economic growth, agricultural non-point source pollution, and agricultural structure. 2) The Granger causality test showed that: agricultural non-point source pollution and economic growth were Granger causes for each other; agricultural structure was the Granger cause of non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth; and agricultural economic growth was the Granger cause of agricultural structure. 3) The results of variance decomposition showed that there was little impact of agricultural economic growth and agricultural structure on agricultural non-point source pollution. The variance contribution of the impact of agricultural economic growth and agricultural structure on agricultural economic growth was 4.31% and 4.02%, respectively. The agricultural non-point source pollution had a great effect on agricultural economic growth. In the next 10 years, the variance contribution from agricultural non-point source pollution would reach 47.02%. 4) In the light of these findings, potential policy suggestions include: continuing to rectify agricultural non-point source pollution; encouraging the development and application of green agricultural technology and methods; increasing the role of the construction of agricultural infrastructure and farmer organization, introducing more detailed and guided financial policies to support agriculture; and strengthening the awareness on green consumption.
Key words:Non-point source pollution/
Economic growth/
Agricultural structure/
VECM model/
Impulse response analysis
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图1农业实际增加值(1npa)、人均过剩氮($1n{\theta _{cap}}$)和畜牧业产值比(lnRs)之间的正交化响应脉冲图
Figure1.Orthogonalization response pulse diagram between agricultural real added value (1npa), excess nitrogen per capita$(1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}})$ and animal husbandry structure (lnRs)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表11998—2017年福建省VAR模型指标基本情况
Table1.Basic information of VAR model indicators of Fujian Province from 1998 to 2017
| 年份 Year | 人均过剩氮量 Excess nitrogen per capita (×104 t) | 畜牧业产值比 Animal husbandry structure (%) | 农业实际增加值 Agricultural real added value (×108￥) |
| 1998 | 8.083 | 18.20 | 610.100 |
| 1999 | 8.492 | 17.60 | 627.183 |
| 2000 | 8.532 | 17.60 | 642.235 |
| 2001 | 14.422 | 17.90 | 660.218 |
| 2002 | 14.865 | 18.10 | 679.364 |
| 2003 | 15.399 | 18.30 | 696.348 |
| 2004 | 15.210 | 19.90 | 740.218 |
| 2005 | 15.534 | 17.70 | 778.709 |
| 2006 | 15.815 | 21.80 | 817.645 |
| 2007 | 15.091 | 17.90 | 847.898 |
| 2008 | 14.878 | 19.30 | 894.532 |
| 2009 | 14.839 | 16.30 | 932.103 |
| 2010 | 14.779 | 14.60 | 972.183 |
| 2011 | 14.665 | 15.50 | 1 013.987 |
| 2012 | 15.161 | 14.10 | 1 059.616 |
| 2013 | 15.252 | 13.80 | 1 102.001 |
| 2014 | 15.380 | 13.10 | 1 148.285 |
| 2015 | 15.960 | 13.60 | 1 194.216 |
| 2016 | 16.421 | 14.50 | 1 236.014 |
| 2017 | 19.049 | 16.90 | 1 286.690 |
下载: 导出CSV表2农业实际增加值(1npa)、人均过剩氮($1n{\theta _{cap}}$)和畜牧业产值比(1nRs)的单位根检验结果
Table2.Unit root tests of agricultural real added value (1npa), excess nitrogen per capita ($1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$) and animal husbandry structure (lnRs)
| 检验方法 Test method | 变量 Variable | 检验值 Test value | 1%临界值 1% critical value | 5%临界值 5% critical value | 数据性质 Data property |
| DF单位根检验 Unit root test of DF | $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{p_{\rm{a}}}$ | -3.864*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series |
| $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | -4.023*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series | |
| $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{R_{\rm{s}}}$ | -6.226*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series | |
| PP单位根检验 Unit root test of PP | $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{p_{\rm{a}}}$ | -3.809*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series |
| $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | -4.030*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series | |
| $\Delta 1{\rm{n}}{R_{\rm{s}}}$ | -5.970*** | -3.750 | -3.000 | 平稳时间序列Stationary time series | |
| Δ表示变量的一阶差分; ***表示在P < 0.001水平显著。Δ means the first difference of the variable. *** denotes significance at P < 0.001 level. | |||||
下载: 导出CSV表3农业实际增加值(1npa)、人均过剩氮($1n{\theta _{cap}}$)和畜牧业产值比(1nRs)关系的协整关系检验
Table3.Cointegration test on the relationship between agricultural real added value (1npa), excess nitrogen per capita $(1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}})$ and animal husbandry structure (lnRs)
| 协整关系数 Number of cointegration relationship | 特征值 Characteristic value | 迹统计量 Trace statistics | 5%临界值 5% critical value | 最大值 Maximum value | 5%临界值 5% critical value |
| 无No | 42.917 5 | 34.55 | 28.186 9 | 23.78 | |
| ≥1 | 0.791 1 | 14.730 7* | 18.17 | 12.776 7 | 16.87 |
| ≥2 | 0.508 3 | 1.954 0 | 3.74 | 1.954 0 | 3.74 |
| *表示在P < 5%水平显著。* denote significance at P < 5% level. | |||||
下载: 导出CSV表4农业实际增加值(1npa)、人均过剩氮($1n{\theta _{cap}}$)和畜牧业产值比(1nRs)关系的VAR模型滞后期数选择
Table4.Selection of VAR lag periods on the relationship between agricultural real added value (1npa), excess nitrogen per capita ($1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$) and animal husbandry structure (lnRs)
| 滞后期(年) Lag period (a) | 赤池信息准则 AIC | 汉南-昆信息准则HQIC | 施瓦茨信息准则SBIC |
| 0 | -11.807 9 | -11.809 4 | -11.666 3 |
| 1 | -11.652 0 | -11.658 1 | -11.085 6 |
| 2 | -11.688 8 | -11.699 4 | -10.697 5 |
| 3 | -13.780 0* | -13.795 1* | -12.363 9* |
| *表示在P < 5%水平显著。* denotes significance at P < 5% level. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表5农业实际增加值(1npa)、人均过剩氮($1n{\theta _{cap}}$)和畜牧业产值比(lnRs)的关系的Granger因果性检验结果
Table5.Granger causality test results on the relationship between agricultural real added value (1npa), excess nitrogen per capita ($1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$) and animal husbandry structure (lnRs)
| 原假设 Original hypothesis | 滞后阶数 Lagging order (a) | F | P |
| 1npa是$1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$的格兰杰原因 1npa is the Granger cause of $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | 3 | 26.297 | 0.000 |
| lnRs是$1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$的格兰杰原因 lnRs is the Granger cause of $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | 3 | 13.227 | 0.004 |
| $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$是1npa的格兰杰原因 $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$is the Granger cause of 1npa | 3 | 100.760 | 0.000 |
| lnRs是1npa的格兰杰原因 lnRs is the Granger cause of 1npa | 3 | 11.424 | 0.010 |
| 1npa是lnRs的格兰杰原因 1npa is the Granger cause of lnRs | 3 | 2.944 | 0.055 |
| $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$不是lnRs的格兰杰原因 $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$isn’t the Granger cause of lnRs | 3 | 7.591 | 0.400 |
下载: 导出CSV表6农业实际增加值(1npa)和人均过剩氮$(1n{\theta _{cap}})$为响应变量的方差分解结果
Table6.Variance decomposition on the response of agricultural real added value (1npa) and excess nitrogen per capita ($1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$)
| 时期Period (a) | $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$作为响应变量$1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$as response variable | 1npa作为响应变量1npa as response variable | |||
| $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | 1npa | lnRs | $1{\rm{n}}{\theta _{{\rm{cap}}}}$ | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 849 | |
| 2 | 0.949 316 | 0.023 176 | 0.027 508 | 0.005 864 | |
| 3 | 0.931 383 | 0.038 523 | 0.030 094 | 0.088 530 | |
| 4 | 0.922 067 | 0.041 405 | 0.036 528 | 0.182 309 | |
| 5 | 0.919 970 | 0.042 387 | 0.037 642 | 0.277 181 | |
| 6 | 0.918 933 | 0.042 375 | 0.038 691 | 0.346 184 | |
| 7 | 0.918 505 | 0.042 496 | 0.038 999 | 0.395 473 | |
| 8 | 0.917 768 | 0.042 823 | 0.039 409 | 0.429 128 | |
| 9 | 0.917 227 | 0.043 014 | 0.039 759 | 0.452 885 | |
| 10 | 0.916 635 | 0.043 149 | 0.040 217 | 0.470 189 | |
| lnRs:畜牧业产值比。lnRs: animal husbandry structure. | |||||
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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