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长江经济带农业绿色增长的时空格局及影响因素研究

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丘雯文1, 2,,
钟涨宝2,,,
田文文2
1.华中农业大学经济管理学院 武汉 430070
2.华中农业大学农村社会建设与管理研究中心 武汉 430070
基金项目: 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目2662017PY023
国家自然科学基金青年项目71803145

详细信息
作者简介:丘雯文, 主要研究方向为农村改革与区域发展。E-mail:qy_wenwen@163.com
通讯作者:钟涨宝, 主要研究方向为农村改革与区域发展。E-mail:zzbemail@mail.hzau.edu.cn
中图分类号:F307.2

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收稿日期:2019-09-12
录用日期:2019-12-12
刊出日期:2020-05-01

Spatio-temporal patterns and impact factors of green economic growth of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

QIU Wenwen1, 2,,
ZHONG Zhangbao2,,,
TIAN Wenwen2
1. College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
2. Research Center for Rural Social Construction and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Funds: the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China2662017PY023
the National Natural Science Foundation of China71803145

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Corresponding author:ZHONG Zhangbao, E-mail:zzbemail@mail.hzau.edu.cn


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摘要
摘要:加快发展方式转变,促进农业绿色增长是缓解农业污染、提高农业效率的重要举措。长江经济带是我国重要的农业生产区域和产粮基地,为科学分析长江经济带农业绿色经济增长水平及其影响因素,本文采用能值方法定量研究了2003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值。在此基础上,利用空间计量经济模型分析其时空格局与影响因素。结果表明:1)2003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值总体稳定上升,且增幅小于农业传统生产总值,农业绿色生产总值占农业传统生产总值的比重呈下降趋势。2)长江经济带农业绿色生产总值的区域差异明显,其空间格局仍未改变传统经济增长东部高、西部低的空间分布特征。3)长江经济带农业绿色增长在全局上具有显著的空间集聚特征,但这种集聚效应呈逐步减弱趋势。4)经济发展水平、科技创新能力、基础设施投资、劳动力素质和农业政策五大因素对本地区农业绿色增长产生正向影响;科技创新能力、基础设施投资对周边地区农业绿色增长产生积极作用。总体上看,长江经济带农业绿色生产总值稳定上升,且呈现“东部高、西部低”的空间分布特征;经济发展水平、科技创新能力等5大因素综合驱动该时期农业绿色增长的时空变化。
关键词:农业绿色增长/
能值分析法/
农业绿色生产总值/
空间计量模型/
长江经济带
Abstract:Accelerating the transformation of development mode and promoting the growth of green agriculture are important measures to reduce agricultural pollution and improve agricultural efficiency. The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important agricultural production area and grain production base in China. In order to analyze the level and influential factors of agricultural green growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, agricultural green production was estimated from 2003 to 2017, and its spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors were analyzed by using spatial econometric analysis methods. There were four main results. Firstly, agricultural green production value of the Yangtze River Economic Belt displayed a generally increasing trend, and the rate of increase was lower than the traditional agricultural production value. The proportion of agricultural green production value to the traditional agricultural production value displayed a downward trend. Secondly, a significant regional difference of agricultural green production value was evident in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. However, a similar pattern of traditional production value was evident, which descended from east to west. Thirdly, significant spatial cluster characteristics were observed in agricultural green growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The cluster effect gradually weakened. Fourthly, the level of economic development, scientific and technological innovation, infrastructure investment, labor quality, and agricultural policy positively affected green economic growth of agriculture in the local region. Scientific and infrastructure investment positively influenced green growth of agriculture in neighboring regions. In general, agricultural green production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt displayed a steady upward trend in temporal characteristics and a downward trend from east to west in the spatial pattern. The dynamic evolution of spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural green economic development in Yangtze River Economic Belt were driven by combined effects of the impact factors.
Key words:Agricultural green economic growth/
Emergy analysis/
Agricultural green production value/
Spatial econometric model/
Yangtze River Economic Belt

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图1长江经济带农业生态经济系统能值流动示意图
Figure1.Emergy flow of agricultural eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt


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图22003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值与农业传统生产总值变化趋势
L1:人均农业绿色生产总值; L2:人均农业传统生产总值; L3:农业绿色产值占农业传统产值比重。L1: agriculture green production value per capita; L2: agriculture tradition production value per capita; L3: green agriculture production value / traditional agriculture production value.
Figure2.Trends of agricultural green production value and agricultural traditional production value in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017


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图32003—2017年长江经济带各区域农业绿色生产总值变化趋势
Figure3.Trends of agricultural green production value in various regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017


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图42003年(a)和2017年(b)长江经济带农业绿色生产总值的Moran散点图
Figure4.Moran scatter plots of agricultural green production value in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2003 (a) and 2017 (b)


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表1长江经济带农业生态经济系统能值分析指标
Table1.Emergy indexes of agricultural eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
项目Item 指标Index 核算方法Expression
可更新环境资源
Renewable resource emergy
太阳能、雨水化学能、雨水势能、风能、地球旋转能等能值输入
Emergy input of solar energy, rainwater chemical energy, rainwater potential energy, wind energy and earth rotation energy
蓝盛芳等[16]; Ulgiati等[20]
Lan S F, et al[16]; Ulgiati, et al [20]
不可更新自然资源
Non-renewable resource emergy
表土层净损耗能值
Net emergy loss value of surface soil layer
蓝盛芳等[16]; Ulgiati等[20]
Lan S F, et al[16]; Ulgiat, et al[20]
不可更新工业辅助能
Non-renewable industrial supplementary emergy
煤炭、柴油、汽油、电力、化肥等能值输入
Emergy input of coal, diesel, gasoline, electric power and chemical fertilizers
工业辅助产品消耗量×能值折算系数×能值转换率[21]
Consumption of industrial auxiliaries × energy conversion coefficient × solar emergy conversion rate[21]
可更新有机能
Renewable organic emergy
种子、有机肥、饲料、畜力、人力等能值输入
Emergy input of seed, organic fertilizer, feed, animal power, and manpower
可更新产品消耗量×能值折算系数×能值转换率[21]
Renewable product consumption × energy conversion coefficient × solar emergy conversion rate[21]
可更新资源产品
Agricultural production emergy
种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业产品等能值产出
Emergy output of various crop, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery products
产品生产量×能值折算系数×能值转换率[21]
Agricultural production × energy conversion coefficient × solar emergy conversion rate[21]
废弃物
Environmental emergy loss (waste stream)
废水、废气、固体废弃物等能值输出
Emergy output of waste water, exhaust gas, solid waste
废弃物排放量×能值折算系数×能值转换率, 废弃物排放采用清单分析法进行计算[22]
Agricultural pollution emissions × energy conversion coefficient × solar emergy conversion rate. Waste pollution was calculated by inventory analysis[22]


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表22003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值的全局空间自相关
Table2.Total spatial autocorrelation of agricultural green production value in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017
年份Year Moran’s I SD(I) Z P
2003 0.433 0.181 2.978 0.002
2004 0.435 0.183 2.927 0.001
2005 0.426 0.169 3.040 0.001
2006 0.412 0.171 2.555 0.007
2007 0.330 0.174 2.447 0.007
2008 0.317 0.168 2.443 0.006
2009 0.403 0.175 2.882 0.003
2010 0.426 0.165 3.184 0.001
2011 0.395 0.172 2.932 0.003
2012 0.424 0.171 2.930 0.003
2013 0.474 0.189 3.039 0.002
2014 0.487 0.187 3.137 0.001
2015 0.499 0.191 3.131 0.006
2016 0.443 0.197 2.782 0.011
2017 0.399 0.204 2.428 0.011


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表3长江经济带农业绿色生产总值空间计量模型估计结果
Table3.Spatial econometric results of agricultural green production value in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
变量
Variables
回归系数
Coefficient
Z
Z value
PGDP 0.408*** 3.31
CRE 0.366* 1.77
INV 0.086*** 3.23
PIR 0.255* 1.95
DIS 0.051 0.95
AP 0.163* 1.80
ρ -0.807*** -3.60
R2 0.324
LM-error 37.324***
Wald-lag 23.92**
LR-lag 16.78**
W×PGDP 0.552 0.77
W×CRE 0.791* 1.78
W×INV 0.226* 1.82
W×PIR 0.531 1.62
W×DIS 0.198 0.01
W×AP 0.006 1.50
Sigma2 8.694*** 8.99
LogL 465.670
LM-lag 38.473***
Wald-error 21.13**
LR-error 15.42**
PGDP:经济发展水平; CRE:农业科技创新能力; INV:农村基础设施投资; PIR:劳动力素质; DIS:抗灾能力; AP:农业政策; W:空间滞后项; ρ:滞后项系数; R2:决定系数; LogL:似然比; LM-error:拉格朗日乘子误差; LM-lag:拉格朗日乘子滞后; LR-error:似然比误差; LR-lag:似然比滞后; Wald-error: Wald误差; Wald-lag: Wald滞后。***、**和*分别表示1%、5%和10%水平显著。PGDP: economic development level; CRE: scientific and technological innovation ability; INV: agricultural infrastructure investment; PIR: quality of labor force; DIS: disaster resistance capacity; AP: agricultural policy; W: spatial lag term; ρ: parameter of spatial lag term; R2: coefficient of determination; LogL: log likelihood; LM-error: Lagrange multiplier error; LM-lag: Lagrange multiplier lag; LR-error: likelihood ratio-error; LR-lag: likelihood ratio-lag; Wald-error: Wald error test; Wald-lag: Wald lag test. ***, ** and * respectively represent the significance level test by 1%, 5% and 10%.


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表4长江经济带农业绿色生产总值各影响因素的直接效应、间接效应和总效应检验结果
Table4.Direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of each influencing factor of agricultural green production value in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
变量
Variables
总效应
Total effect
直接效应
Direct effect
间接效应
Indirect effect
效应
Effect
Z
Z value
效应
Effect
Z
Z value
PGDP 1.056*** 0.472*** 3.28 0.584 0.97
CRE 1.008** 0.213* 1.94 0.795** 2.08
INV 0.664** 0.024** 2.25 0.639* 1.84
PIR 0.468* 0.228** 2.11 0.240 1.37
DIS 0.191 0.025 0.77 0.166 0.22
AP 0.188** 0.156** 1.96 0.032 0.35
PGDP:经济发展水平; CRE:农业科技创新能力; INV:农村基础设施投资; PIR:劳动力素质; DIS:抗灾能力; AP:农业政策。***、**和*分别表示1%、5%和10%水平显著。PGDP: economic development level; CRE: scientific and technological innovation ability; INV: agricultural infrastructure investment; PIR: quality of labor force; DIS: disaster resistance capacity; AP: agricultural policy. ***, ** and * respectively represent the significance level test by 1%, 5% and 10%.


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