谭方颖,
何亮,
吕厚荃,
宋迎波,
程路,
侯英雨^,
国家气象中心 北京 100081
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507802
国家重点研发计划项目2017YFC1502402
公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY201306038
公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY201506001
国家自然科学基金项目41705095

详细信息

作者简介:谭方颖, 主要从事农业气象相关研究。E-mail:tanfangying0803@163.com

通讯作者:侯英雨, 主要从事农业气象相关研究。E-mail:yyhou@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号:S166

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出版历程

收稿日期:2019-09-17
录用日期:2019-11-07
刊出日期:2020-02-01

Application of agricultural drought index based on Run Theory for the assessment of yield loss in spring maize owing to drought in Liaoning Province

TAN Fangying,
HE Liang,
LYU Houquan,
SONG Yingbo,
CHENG Lu,
HOU Yingyu^,
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: the National Key Research and Development Project of China2018YFC1507802
the National Key Research and Development Project of China2017YFC1502402
the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorology in the Public Welfare Profession of ChinaGYHY201306038
the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorology in the Public Welfare Profession of ChinaGYHY201506001
the National Natural Science Foundation of China41705095

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Corresponding author:HOU Yingyu, E-mail:yyhou@cma.gov.cn

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摘要
摘要:为准确识别农业干旱事件，评估干旱对农作物产量的影响，本文以辽宁省为例，基于52个气象站1961—2015年逐日气象数据，计算了春玉米全生育期水分亏缺距平指数，利用游程理论构建了一种新的春玉米全生育期干旱指数，再结合历年产量损失率构建了区、县级尺度的干旱产量损失评估模型，并对不同干旱风险下春玉米产量损失进行了评估，以明确辽宁省春玉米干旱重点防范区域。研究结果表明，辽宁省春玉米干旱指数呈由西向东递减的经向分布特征，辽西地区更易发生严重的干旱事件，且春玉米产量稳定性也最差。春玉米主产区内，80%以上的区、县春玉米产量损失率与干旱指数呈显著线性正相关，辽中部分区县和辽东大部两者相关性不显著。相同干旱指数下，辽西产量损失率最大，并以朝阳地区为最；辽南和辽北次之；辽东湾和中部部分平原地区总体较小；非水分限制区辽东的凤城市和东港市，降水偏少反而更有利于春玉米产量提高。辽宁省春玉米干旱重点防范区域主要分布在辽西的朝阳地区，以及千山山脉以西和以北的辽北、辽南地区，提高和稳定春玉米产量需增加耐旱品种种植、发展节水灌溉、提高水分利用效率；降水充沛或灌溉条件较好、产量稳定性较高的辽东大部和辽中部分区县，可通过提高种植和管理水平、加强其他气象灾害防御等增加春玉米产量。
关键词:农业干旱指数/
产量损失评估/
游程理论/
春玉米/
辽宁省
Abstract:Drought is one of the main factors restricting agricultural development and food security in China. Identifying agricultural drought accurately and assessing the impact of drought on crop yield in detail is the core of drought research. The results of this research can provide a theoretical basis for drought disaster prevention and mitigation. The water deficit anomaly index of spring maize across the entire growth period was calculated based on daily weather data from 52 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2015, and a new drought index for spring maize over the entire growth period was constructed by using Run Theory. Drought yield loss assessment models at the county or city scales were further constructed based on the drought index and yield loss rate from 1981 to 2015. Finally, key prevention areas for spring maize drought in Liaoning Province were identified. The drought index for spring maize in Liaoning Province exhibited a decreasing distribution from west to east. The likelihood of severe drought events was higher and the interannual variability of spring maize yield was largest in western Liaoning. The rate of yield loss of spring maize had a significant positive linear correlation with the drought index in more than 80% of the counties in the spring maize main producing area, except for most parts of eastern Liaoning and some counties in central Liaoning. Moreover, significant spatial differences were observed in the yield loss of spring maize. With the same drought index, the region with the largest yield loss rate of Liaoning Province was Chaoyang, followed by the southern and northern parts of Liaoning; the Liaodong Bay and the central plain had the lowest yield loss rate. However, in Fengcheng City and Donggang City, where spring maize growth was not restricted by precipitation, the yield of corn was higher in the years with less precipitation. The results of the present study indicated that the government should pay more attention to drought-sensitive zones such as the Chaoyang District, and northern and southern Liaoning west, and north of the Qianshan Mountains. To increase and stabilize spring maize yield in the above areas, it is necessary to increase drought-tolerant varieties, develop water-saving irrigation, and improve water use efficiency. Most counties in eastern Liaoning and some counties in central Liaoning with abundant rainfall or good irrigation conditions can increase spring maize production by improving planting and management methods. Additional attention should be paid to the prevention of damage caused by floods and cold, especially in Fengcheng and Donggang.
Key words:Agricultural drought index/
Yield loss assessment/
Run Theory/
Spring maize/
Liaoning Province

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图1研究区域及分区示意图
Figure1.Sketch map of the study area and regionalization


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图2游程理论示意图
CWDI_a:作物水分亏缺距平指数; CWDI₀:水分亏缺距平触发干旱的阈值; t_s:干旱事件开始时间; t_a:干旱事件结束时间; S:干旱事件强度; D:干旱事件历时。
Figure2.Schematic diagram of the Run Theory
CWDI_a: crop water deficit abnormal index; CWDI₀: drought threshold value of crop water deficit abnormal index; t_s: the beginning time of a drought event; t_a: the ending time of a drought event; S: drought intensity of a drought event; D: drought duration of a drought event.


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图31961—2015年辽宁省春玉米干旱指数平均值(a)和最大值(b)的空间分析
Figure3.Spatial distribution of average (a) and maximum (b) values of spring maize drought index in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2015


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图42000—2015年辽宁省春玉米单产变异系数空间分布
Figure4.Spatial distribution of coefficient of variation of spring maize yield in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2015


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图5辽宁省春玉米产量损失模型(y=ax+b)参数a的空间分布
参数a的意义见表 1。
Figure5.Spatial distribution of the parameter a of spring maize yield loss model (y=ax+b) of Liaoning Province
Meaning the parameter a was shown in the table 1.


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图6辽宁省春玉米10年(a)、50年(b)一遇干旱减产率
Figure6.Reduction rates of spring maize yield caused by drought once in 10 years (a), 50 years (b) in Liaoning Province


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表1辽宁省春玉米主产区、县干旱产量损失评估模型
Table1.Evaluation models for drought yield loss of spring maize in main producing districts/counties in Liaoning Province

区域 Region	市(区)、县 District/County	产量损失评估模型(y=ax+b) Yield loss evaluation model		显著性(P值) Significance (P value)
		a	b
辽西 Western Liaoning	朝阳县Chaoyang County	-3.553	30.578	0.001
	喀喇沁左翼蒙古族自治县 Karachi Left Mongolian Autonomous County	-3.440	34.463	0.001
	北票市Beipiao City	-3.484	31.206	0.001
	凌源市Lingyuan City	-3.402	32.867	0.001
	义县Yi County	-2.591	28.553	0.001
	建昌县Jianchang County	-4.136	27.905	0.001
	建平县Jianping County	-2.369	20.031	0.002
	绥中县Suizhong County	-2.410	20.124	0.002
	彰武县Zhangwu County	-2.128	17.943	0.001
	北镇市Beizhen City	-1.475	15.528	0.020
	凌海市Linghai City	-1.390	14.768	0.001
	黑山县Heishan County	-1.339	20.290	0.002
	连山区Lianshan District	-2.580	22.473	0.020
	阜新蒙古族自治县Fuxin Mongolian Autonomous County	-2.372	20.999	0.001
	兴城市Xingcheng City	-2.767	29.213	0.050
辽北 Northern Liaoning	西丰县Xifeng County	-2.122	25.891	0.050
	铁岭县Tieling County	-2.051	26.377	0.020
	康平县Kangping County	-2.070	23.395	0.001
	开原市Kaiyuan City	-2.344	16.601	0.001
	清河区Qinghe District	-2.460	30.724	0.001
	昌图县Changtu County	-2.849	20.952	0.001
	调兵山市Diaobingshan City	-2.086	20.246	0.001
	法库县Faku County	-2.436	16.631	0.001
辽南 Southern Liaoning	大石桥市Dashiqiao City	-2.888	25.431	0.010
	普兰店市Pulandian City	-2.605	17.580	0.001
	盖州市Gaizhou City	-2.031	18.202	0.001
	瓦房店市Wafangdian City	-2.521	21.223	0.001
	庄河市Zhuanghe City	-2.021	16.385	0.010
辽中 Middle Liaoning	海城市Haicheng City	-1.946	21.962	0.005
	沈北新区 Shenbei New District	-0.879	10.482	0.005
	灯塔市Dengta City	-1.060	15.824	0.001
	大洼县Dawa County	-0.912	11.517	0.020
	辽阳县Liaoyang County	-1.189	18.366	0.020
	东陵区Dongling District	-1.131	14.066	0.050
	苏家屯区Sujiatun District	-1.780	19.526	0.020
	于洪区Yuhong District	-0.887	11.644	0.005
	台安县Tai’an County	/	/	/
	辽中县Liaozhong County	-1.964	17.712	0.020
	盘山县Panshan County	/	/	/
	新民市Xinmin City	-1.587	14.445	0.010
辽东 Eastern Liaodong	抚顺县Fushun County	-2.147	8.481	0.001
	新宾满族自治县Xinbin Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	桓仁满族自治县Huanren Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	清原满族自治县Qingyuan Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	本溪满族自治县Benxi Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	南芬区Nanfen District	/	/	/
	溪湖区Xihu District	/	/	/
	宽甸满族自治县Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	岫岩满族自治县Xiuyan Manchu Autonomous County	/	/	/
	凤城市Fengcheng City	2.090	4.539	0.050
	东港市Donggang City	1.845	-4.291	0.020
	y为产量损失率, x为干旱指数; “/”表示模型未通过相关显著性检验。“y” is the yield loss rate, “x” is the drought index. “/” means no significant correlation.

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