DorrisChebeth^{1, 2,},
柏兆海^1,,,
马林^1,,
1.中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室/河北省土壤生态学重点实验室(筹)/中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心 石家庄 050022
2.中国科学院大学 北京 100049
基金项目: the National Natural Science Foundation of China31572210
the National Natural Science Foundation of China31872403
the National Natural Science Foundation of China71961137011
the Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources of Chinese of Academy of SciencesZD201802
the Key Research Program of Chinese Academy of SciencesKFJ-STS-ZDTP-053
Hebei Dairy Cattle Innovation Team of Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System of ChinaHBCT2018120206
the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences2019101
the Outstanding Young Scientists Project of Natural Science Foundation of HebeiC2019503054

详细信息

通讯作者:柏兆海, 主要从事农畜牧业可持续发展研究, E-mail:baizh1986@126.com
马林, 主要从事养分资源管理和农业生态学研究, E-mail:malin1979@sjziam.ac.cn

中图分类号:F33;F304

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收稿日期:2020-01-09
录用日期:2020-02-12
刊出日期:2020-06-01

Changes in agricultural resource input and productivity in Kenya and China

Dorris Chebeth^{1, 2,},
BAI Zhaohai^1,,,
MA Lin^1,,
1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology/Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050022, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China31572210
the National Natural Science Foundation of China31872403
the National Natural Science Foundation of China71961137011
the Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources of Chinese of Academy of SciencesZD201802
the Key Research Program of Chinese Academy of SciencesKFJ-STS-ZDTP-053
Hebei Dairy Cattle Innovation Team of Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System of ChinaHBCT2018120206
the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences2019101
the Outstanding Young Scientists Project of Natural Science Foundation of HebeiC2019503054

More Information

Author Bio:Dorris Chebeth, E-mail:chebethdorris@gmail.com

Corresponding author:BAI Zhaohai, E-mail:baizh1986@126.com;MA Lin, E-mail:malin1979@sjziam.ac.cn

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摘要
摘要:当前，肯尼亚和中国在生产足够粮食以保障粮食安全方面都面临着严峻的挑战。尤其是对于肯尼亚而言，因为其2100年预测的人口将达到2018年的1.4倍，且其粮食生产在过去并没有大幅度的改善。而中国近些年粮食生产能力显著提高。本文系统分析了肯尼亚和中国农业资源投入、种植业和畜牧业单产水平的历史变化，以及农业资源投入与产量之间的关系，为肯尼亚粮食危机和消灭贫困提供更多的理论支撑。研究结果表明，在20世纪60年代，肯尼亚耕地、草地和降水等自然资源人均占有量比中国高2~3倍，且人均食物能量和蛋白质供应显著高于中国。当前，肯尼亚人均资源拥有量仍高出中国约30%，但是其人均食品供应和粮食自给率却远低于中国平均水平。这是由于与肯尼亚相比，中国在种植业和畜牧业长期持续的投入，大幅度地增加了种植业和畜牧业能量或蛋白质单产水平。1961-2017年，中国和肯尼亚作物蛋白的平均单产分别增加282%和44%。中国的数据表明，种植业和畜牧业单产水平与肥料、精饲料、机械和农药的投入具有显著正相关性；农牧业生产结构对单产水平的变化影响也很大，如种植业中蔬菜和水果播种面积占比，畜牧业中单胃动物饲养占比等。总的来说，农业资源投入和农业结构对生产力的提高都有很大的影响，这可能是肯尼亚提高农业生产力的潜在选择。
关键词:肯尼亚/
中国/
能量生产力/
蛋白生产力/
农业资源/
农业结构/
粮食安全
Abstract:Both Kenya and China are facing great challenges in feeding their populations; this is particularly problematic in Kenya, where the population will be projected to increase by 1.4 times from 2018 to 2100. Food production has been greatly improved in China, but it still lags behind in Kenya. In this study, we systematically compared the changes in agricultural resources and crop/livestock productivity, as well as their relationships with the resource input levels and agricultural production structure, to try to provide insights into reducing food insecurity and poverty in Kenya. Our results revealed that Kenya had 2-3 times more natural resources, such as cropland, grassland, and annual precipitation, per capita than did China in the 1960s, which was similar to the daily food energy and protein supply. Currently, Kenya still has higher natural resources per capita, but has lower food security and quality when compared to China. This is due to the continued rapid increase in crop and livestock productivity regarding energy and protein production in China. From 1961 to 2017, crop protein productivity increased by 44% in Kenya, while in China it increased by 282%. Our results showed that crop and livestock productivity positively correlated with the input of fertilizers, concentrate feeds, machinery, and pesticides, as seen in China. Meanwhile, the structure of crop and livestock production also showed a large impact on the changes in productivity, such as the harvest area of vegetables/fruits to the total harvest area and the ratio of monogastric animals for livestock production. Overall, both agrochemicals and structure have strong impacts on the increase in productivity, and these could be potential options in Kenya to improve productivity due to the low input of resources into crop and livestock production.
Key words:Kenya/
China/
Energy productivity/
Protein productivity/
Agricultural resources/
Agricultural structure/
Food security

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Figure1.Changes in natural resources from 1961 to 2017 in Kenya and China. (a) cropland area per capita, (b) grassland area per capita, (c) inland water per capita, and (d) precipitation per capita


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Figure2.Food consumption trends in terms of protein, energy, and food self-sufficiency rates in Kenya and China. (a and c) food energy supply, (b and d) protein supply, and (e and f) food self-sufficiency rate of plant and animal products. The self-sufficiency rate (SSR) refers to the extent to which a country can satisfy its own food production according to the FAO (1999).


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Figure3.Changes in (a and b) crop and (c and d) livestock productivity regarding energy and protein in Kenya and China


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Figure4.Relationships of the energy production with agrochemical inputs of (a) nitrogen (N), (b) phosphorus (P₂O₅), and (c) potash (K₂O) fertilizers, as well as the (d) total pesticide and (e) total machinery (total agricultural tractors and combine harvesters in use)


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Figure5.Relationships of protein production with agrochemical inputs of (a) nitrogen (N), (b) phosphorus (P₂O₅), and (c) potash (K₂O) fertilizers, as well as the (d) total pesticide and (e) total machinery (total agricultural tractors and combine harvesters in use)


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Figure6.Relationships of (a and b) energy production and (c and d) protein production with (a and c) cereal feeds from cereal crops, and (b and d) protein feeds from oil crops


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Figure7.Relationships of energy (a and b) and protein (c and d) productivity with the proportion of (a and c) cultivated area of vegetables and fruits and (b and d) ratio of monogastric animals


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