孙维3,
唐为安1, 2,
何冬燕1, 2,
邓汗青1, 2
1.安徽省气候中心/安徽省气象局 合肥 230031
2.安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室/安徽省气象局 合肥 230031
3.安徽省公共气象服务中心/安徽省气象局 合肥 230031
基金项目: 中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201809
安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划和国家重点研发计划项目2017YFD0301301
详细信息
作者简介:卢燕宇, 研究方向为气候变化和气象灾害风险。E-mail:ahqxlyy@163.com
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出版历程
收稿日期:2019-06-23
录用日期:2019-08-15
刊出日期:2020-01-01
Climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat under the background of climate change in Anhui Province
LU Yanyu1, 2,,,SUN Wei3,
TANG Wei'an1, 2,
HE Dongyan1, 2,
DENG Hanqing1, 2
1. Anhui Climate Center/Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei 230031, China
2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing/Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei 230031, China
3. Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center/Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei 230031, China
Funds: the Climate Change Special Fund of the China Meteorological AdministrationCCSF201809
Anhui Meteorological Bureau Innovation Team Project and the National Key Research and Development Project of China2017YFD0301301
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Corresponding author:LU Yanyu, E-mail: ahqxlyy@163.com
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摘要
摘要:从气候的资源和灾害双重属性出发，构建了冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险评价指标，以安徽省为例分析了二者对气候变化的响应特征，综合气候对高产和稳产的影响进行研究区冬小麦种植气候适宜性区划。结果表明：采用逐级订正法结合作物生长动态参数估算安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力多年平均为12 391 kg·hm-2，以沿淮和江淮之间最高；1961-2015年淮北和沿淮东部地区为显著上升趋势，而淮河以南地区则以下降为主。通过考虑在冬小麦生长发育过程中气候条件偏离最适区间而导致的胁迫影响，建立了高温、低温、雨涝、干旱4种气候胁迫的评估指标，并基于气候胁迫的超越概率形成了冬小麦气候风险评价方法。气候变暖使研究区冬小麦高温胁迫显著上升，低温胁迫显著下降，水分胁迫无显著的变化趋势。安徽省冬小麦的气候风险呈现中间低，两头高的分布特征，以沿淮和江淮之间风险最低，淮北北部和江南南部风险较高；淮北地区主要以干旱和低温贡献为主，而淮河以南地区则以雨涝风险为主。融合气候生产潜力和气候胁迫风险形成冬小麦的气候适宜性区划，其空间格局呈南北低、中间高的特征，种植分布格局与气候适宜性的空间匹配程度较高，但有一定的优化调整空间。
关键词:全球气候变化/
冬小麦/
气候生产潜力/
气候胁迫指数/
气候风险/
气候适宜性/
安徽省
Abstract:Climate change has significantly influenced agricultural production in Anhui Province, a main food-producing region in China. For the comprehensive assessment of the beneficial and detrimental effects of climate change on winter wheat, this study established evaluation indices system and method of climatic potential productivity and stress risk. The responses of climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat to climate change of Anhui Province were then analyzed. Lastly, comprehensive climate-suitability zoning was proposed by considering the effects of climate on winter wheat yield and yield stability. Applying a stepwise evaluation method and dynamic growth parameters produced an estimated average climatic potential productivity of winter wheat of 12 391 kg·hm-2 in Anhui Province. During 1961-2015, climatic potential productivity significantly increased in the region north of the Huaihe River, but deceased in the region south of the Huaihe River. Heat, cold, waterlogging, and drought stresses were analyzed by considering the effects of climatic conditions deviating from the optimal range during winter wheat growth. Based on the surpassing probability of climate stress, this study further assessed the climatic risks to winter wheat. Heat stress on winter wheat increased significantly, but a decreasing trend was found in variation in cold stress. The stress of waterlogging and drought exhibited no significant change trend. The northern and southern regions of Anhui Province were dominated by high climatic risk to winter wheat, but relatively low risk was found in the central region. The high climatic risk in the region north of the Huaihe River was primarily attributed to drought and cold stress, while the southern region was dominated by the waterlogging risk. The climatic suitability of winter wheat assessed with climatic potential productivity and stress risk was lower in southern and northern regions, but higher in the central regions of Anhui Province. The spatial distribution of winter wheat planting was generally consistent with climate suitability, while the planting layout could be further optimized to adapt to the climate.
Key words:Global climate change/
Winter wheat/
Climatic potential productivity/
Climate stress index/
Climate risk/
Climate suitability/
Anhui Province
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图1安徽省地形概况、气象站点分布(a)以及冬小麦种植面积比例的空间分布(b)
Figure1.Topographic feature, meteorological stations (a) and spatial distribution of winter wheat area ratio (b) in Anhui Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)空间分布
Figure2.Spatial distribution of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)的变化趋势
Figure3.Trends of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41961—2015年安徽省冬小麦光合生产潜力(a)、光温生产潜力(b)和气候生产潜力(c)趋势系数的空间分布
Figure4.Spatial distribution of trend coefficients of photosynthetic potential productivity (a), light-temperature potential productivity (b), and climatic potential productivity (c) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数的空间分布
Figure5.Spatial distribution of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c), and drought (d) of winter wheat in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数的变化趋势
Figure6.Trends of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c), and drought (d) in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图71961—2015年安徽省冬小麦高温(a)、低温(b)、雨涝(c)、干旱(d)胁迫指数变化的空间分布
Figure7.Spatial distribution of trend coefficients of stress indexes of heat (a), cold (b), waterlogging (c) and drought (d) in Anhui Province during the period of 1961-2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图8安徽省冬小麦气候风险指数的空间分布(a)以及不同气候胁迫条件的贡献(b)
Figure8.Spatial distribution of climate risk index (a) and contribution of different climate stress (b) for winter wheat in Anhui Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图9安徽省冬小麦气候适宜性区划
Figure9.Climate suitability zoning of winter wheat in Anhui Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1冬小麦光合生产潜力作物参数意义及取值
Table1.Values and meanings of photosynthetic potential productivity parameters of winter wheat
| 参数Parameter | 物理意义Physical meaning | 取值Value |
| Ω | 作物光照强度利用效率Crop utilization efficiency of light intensity (%) | 85 |
| ε | 光合有效辐射比率Fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (%) | 49 |
| φ | 光量子转化效率Light quantum efficiency (%) | 22 |
| α | 植物群体反射率Plant population reflectance (%) | 10 |
| β | 植物群体透射率Plant population transmittance (%) | 7 |
| ρ | 作物非光合器官截获辐射比率Fraction of radiation intercepted by crop non-photosynthetic organ (%) | 10 |
| γ | 超过光饱和点的光的比率Ratio of light exceeding the light saturation point (%) | 5 |
| ω | 呼吸消耗占光合产物比重Fraction of photosynthetic products consumed by respiration (%) | 33 |
| f(L) | 作物叶面积动态变化订正值Revised factor for dynamic change of crop leaf area | 0.5 |
| E | 作物经济系数Crop economic coefficient | 0.45 |
| q | 单位干物质的含热量Heat content per unit dry matter (MJ?kg-1) | 17.58 |
| η | 成熟作物的含水率Moisture content of mature crops (%) | 14 |
| ξ | 作物灰分率Crop ash content (%) | 8 |
下载: 导出CSV表2冬小麦不同生长期三基点温度
Table2.Three critical points of temperature at different growth stages of winter wheat
| 生育期Growth stage | T0 (℃) | T1 (℃) | T2 (℃) |
| 苗期Seedling stage | 15 | 5 | 30 |
| 营养生长期Vegetative growth stage | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 营养生殖并进期Synchronization stage of vegetative and reproductive growth | 10 | 5 | 25 |
| 开花灌浆期Flowering and filling stage | 18 | 10 | 30 |
| 成熟期Maturation stage | 20 | 10 | 32 |
| T0、T1、T2分别是产量形成的最适温度和生长发育的下限温度、上限温度。T0, T1, T2 are the optimal temperature for yield formation, the lower temperature and upper temperature of growth. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表3冬小麦各生育期作物系数(Kc)、水分亏缺产量敏感系数(Ky)及水分过剩产量敏感系数(Km)
Table3.Crop coefficient (Kc), yield sensitivity coefficients of water deficit (Ky) and water excess (Km) of winter wheat at different growth stages
| 生育期Growth stage | Kc | Ky | Km |
| 苗期Seedling stage | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.14 |
| 营养生长期Vegetative growth stage | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.14 |
| 营养生殖并进期Synchronization stage of vegetative and reproductive growth | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.21 |
| 开花灌浆期Flowering and filling stage | 0.75 | 0.5 | 0.21 |
| 成熟期Maturation stage | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.21 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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