余珮珩1, 2,
陈奕云1, 3, 4,,,
江颂5,
白少云6,
顾世祥6
1.武汉大学资源与环境科学学院 武汉 430079
2.香港理工大学建筑及房地产学系 香港 999077
3.土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室 南京 210008
4.武汉大学教育部地理信息系统重点实验室 武汉 430079
5.北京大学城市与环境学院 北京 100871
6.云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院 昆明 650021
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41771440)和国家高分辨率对地观测系统重大科技专项(89-Y40-G19-9001-18/20-03)资助
详细信息
作者简介:陈泽怡, 主要研究方向为地理信息科学与生态系统服务。E-mail: chen_zy@whu.edu.cn
通讯作者:陈奕云, 主要研究方向为地理信息科学与可持续发展。E-mail: chenyy@whu.edu.cn
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出版历程
收稿日期:2021-03-16
录用日期:2021-06-04
网络出版日期:2021-08-13
刊出日期:2021-10-01
Spatio-temporal changes of water resources ecosystem services in the Hanjiang River Basin based on the shared socioeconomic pathway
CHEN Zeyi1,,YU Peiheng1, 2,
CHEN Yiyun1, 3, 4,,,
JIANG Song5,
BAI Shaoyun6,
GU Shixiang6
1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
2. Department of Building and Real Estate, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Nanjing 210008, China
4. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System of Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
5. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
6. Yunnan Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Kunming 650021, China
Funds:The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41771440) and the Major Scientific and Technological Project of National High Resolution Earth Observation System of China (89-Y40-G19-9001-18/20-03)
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Corresponding author:E-mail: chenyy@whu.edu.cn
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摘要
摘要:面向流域治理与区域可持续发展, 提出一种耦合共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型的流域生态系统服务综合评估框架, 以汉江流域为例, 开展不同社会发展情景下的未来土地利用模拟, 利用InVEST模型评估土地利用变化的水生态系统服务效应, 揭示流域水源涵养与水质净化服务对社会发展决策的响应及时空演变规律。研究结果表明: 1)2035年各SSPs情景下汉江流域的产水深度较2015年均大幅提高, 产水深度增加的地区多集中于汉江流域东南、中部及西部部分建设用地增加的区域; 2)由于人类活动频繁, 城市快速扩张, SSPs情景下产水深度增加的地区多集中于汉江流域东南、中部及西部部分建设用地增加的区域; 3) 2035年各SSPs情景下的流域氮磷元素负荷量较2015年均有所减少, 部分氮磷元素负荷量增加的地区主要集中于流域东南及西部; 4)汉江流域的社会经济活动以及农业活动是造成水环境污染的主要原因。研究结果可服务于汉江流域国土空间规划编制及可持续的水资源资产管理工作, 支撑汉江生态经济带建设, 推动长江流域水生态环境改善。
关键词:共享社会经济路径/
生态系统服务功能/
土地利用类型; InVEST模型/
水源涵养/
水质净化/
汉江流域
Abstract:A comprehensive assessment framework for watershed ecosystem services and trade-offs was proposed for watershed governance and regional sustainable development in this paper. The framework integrated both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and future land use simulation (FLUS) models. The socioeconomic data of China’s provincial SSPs considering domestic development and regional differences were introduced to the FLUS model, meeting the needs of regional level land-use simulation scenarios and fully considering the interaction between human socio-economic activities and the natural environment. Taking the Hanjiang River Basin as an example, the FLUS models under different SSPs scenarios were built to evaluate the ecological and environmental effects on land-use change. We further investigated the response of water conservation and water quality purification services to social development decision-making and spatiotemporal evolution by using InVEST model. Results showed that: 1) the water production depth in 2035 under all the SSP scenarios was significantly higher than that in 2015. The increment under the SSP1 and SSP2 scenarios was relatively small, and the increment under the SSP3 scenario was relatively higher with the most intense change. The areas with increased water production depth were mainly concentrated in the southeast, central, and western regions of the Hanjiang River Basin. 2) From 2015 to 2035, due to frequent human activities and rapid urban expansion, in areas where the water production depth increased, urbanized land also increased significantly. According to the land-use simulation and water production depth change results, urbanized land had a strong water production capacity due to low vegetation coverage, weak evapotranspiration, and low permeability of hardened ground. 3) The nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the SSPs scenarios in 2035 were lower than those in 2015. The reduction under the SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios was relatively large, and the SSP3 scenario was the same as that in 2015, but the change was the most intense. The areas with increased nitrogen and phosphorus loads were mainly concentrated in the southeast and western regions. 4) According to the results of land-use simulation and nitrogen and phosphorus load change, the urbanized land had more pollutants due to the frequent human socio-economic activities, while the cropland was due to the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in the process of agricultural production, making part of the nitrogen and phosphorus elements not absorbed by crops. The two types of land-use caused serious pollution in the water environment of the basin. The future development planning of the Hanjiang River Basin can be based on the SSP1 scenario, referring to the economic and technological development model under the SSP5 scenario, combined with the basin functional district, optimizing the land-use structure, and ensuring the water ecological environment security of the basin while paying attention to economic development. The results of this study can be used to prepare territorial spatial planning and sustainable water resource asset management in the Hanjiang River Basin, support the construction of the Hanjiang River eco-economic belt, and promote the improvement of the water ecological environment in the Yangtze River Basin.
Key words:Shared socioeconomic pathways/
Ecosystem service function/
Land use type; InVEST model/
Water conservation/
Water improvement/
Hanjiang Basin
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图1汉江流域区位图
Figure1.Location map of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2耦合共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)与未来土地利用模拟模型(Future Land Use Simulation, FLUS)的流域生态系统服务综合评估框架
SD: 系统动学； CA: 元胞自动机；ANN: 神经网络算法。
Figure2.Comprehensive assessment framework of watershed ecosystem services integrated both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SPPs) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model
SD: System Dynamics; CA: Cellular Automata; ANN: Artificial Neural Network.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图3基于系统动力学模型的汉江流域土地利用流程图
Figure3.Land use flow chart of the Hanjiang River Basin based on System Dynamics model
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图4汉江流域2015年土地利用现状与2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下土地利用的模拟结果
Figure4.Land use status in 2015 and land use simulation results under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图52015年和2035年共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域年最大、最小与平均产水深度
Figure5.Annual maximum, minimum and average water production depths in 2015 and simulated results under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basins
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图62015年汉江流域产水深度与2035年共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域产水深度变化
Figure6.Water production depth in 2015 and the change of water production depths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图72015年和2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域不同用地类型平均产水深度
Figure7.Average water production depths of different land use types in 2015 and under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图82015年和2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域年最大、最小与平均单位面积总氮和总磷元素负荷量
Figure8.Annual maximum, minimum and average nitrogens and phosphorus loads in 2015 and under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图102015年汉江流域磷元素负荷量与2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域磷元素负荷变化量
Figure10.Phosphorus load in 2015 and the change of phosphorus load under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图92015年汉江流域氮元素负荷量与2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域氮元素负荷变化量
Figure9.Nitrogen load in 2015 and the change of nitrogen load under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图112015年和2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域不同用地类型平均氮磷元素负荷量
Figure11.Average nitrogen and phosphorus loads of different land use types in 2015 and under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1不同土地利用类型的氮磷元素输出相关参数
Table1.Output parameters of nitrogen and phosphorus of differnt land use types
| 用地类型 Land use type | 总氮元素负荷 Load total nitrogen (t?km?2) | 总磷元素负荷 Load total phosphorus (t?km?2) | 去除效率 Retention efficiency (%) |
| 耕地 Cropland | 3.27 | 0.364 | 25 |
| 林地 Woodland | 0.348 | 0.035 | 70 |
| 草地 Grassland | 1.1 | 0.068 | 48 |
| 水域 Water area | 1.5 | 0.036 | 5 |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 1.1 | 0.025 | 5 |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0.856 | 0.002 | 5 |
下载: 导出CSV表22035年共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下的汉江流域各类土地利用类型面积预测结果
Table2.Area prediction results of various land use types based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in 2035 of the Hanjiang River Basin
| 用地类型 Land use type | SSP1 | SSP2 | SSP3 | SSP4 | SSP5 |
| 耕地 Cropland | 6797.1 | 6847.4 | 7047.1 | 6890.4 | 6754.6 |
| 林地 Woodland | 7152.9 | 7135.4 | 7028.1 | 7127.4 | 7131.8 |
| 草地 Grassland | 3377.4 | 3372.4 | 3385.9 | 3377.4 | 3378.5 |
| 水域 Water area | 650.6 | 643.5 | 620.5 | 632.5 | 643.0 |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 979.5 | 957.9 | 875.7 | 930.0 | 1049.7 |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 12.3 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.2 |
下载: 导出CSV表32015—2035年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下汉江流域土地利用面积转移矩阵
Table3.Land use transfer matrix of the Hanjiang River Basin based from 2015 to 2035 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios
| 2035 | 用地类型 Land use type | 2015 | ||||||
| 耕地 Cropland | 林地 Woodland | 草地 Grassland | 水域 Water area | 建设用地 Urbanized land | 未利用地 Barren land | 总计 Total | ||
| SSP1 | 耕地 Cropland | 6797.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6797.1 |
| 林地 Woodland | 81.2 | 6983.5 | 80.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 7152.9 | |
| 草地 Grassland | 48.3 | 117.4 | 3208.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0 | 3377.4 | |
| 水域 Water area | 36.3 | 9 | 1.4 | 597.9 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 650.6 | |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 123.9 | 129 | 40.6 | 64.1 | 620.5 | 1.4 | 979.5 | |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | |
| 总计 Total | 7087.4 | 7239.2 | 3331.3 | 669.3 | 629.4 | 13.2 | 18 969.8 | |
| SSP2 | 耕地 Cropland | 6847.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6847.4 |
| 林地 Woodland | 84.4 | 6961 | 82.7 | 5.3 | 2 | 0 | 7135.4 | |
| 草地 Grassland | 49.1 | 116.9 | 3203.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0 | 3372.4 | |
| 水域 Water area | 20.2 | 9 | 1.3 | 608.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 643.5 | |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 86.3 | 152.3 | 44.2 | 53.9 | 621.2 | 0 | 957.9 | |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.2 | 13.2 | |
| 总计 Total | 7087.4 | 7239.2 | 3331.3 | 669.3 | 629.4 | 13.2 | 18 969.8 | |
| SSP3 | 耕地 Cropland | 7047.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7047.1 |
| 林地 Woodland | 15.1 | 5802.8 | 1159.1 | 31.2 | 20 | 0.1 | 7028.3 | |
| 草地 Grassland | 23.3 | 1224.4 | 2121.9 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 0 | 3385.9 | |
| 水域 Water area | 1.4 | 24.9 | 4.8 | 575.8 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 620.5 | |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 0.5 | 187 | 45.5 | 55.7 | 586.9 | 0.1 | 875.7 | |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | |
| 总计 Total | 7087.4 | 7239.2 | 3331.3 | 669.3 | 629.4 | 13.2 | 18 969.8 | |
| SSP4 | 耕地 Cropland | 6890.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6890.4 |
| 林地 Woodland | 69 | 6970.8 | 79.1 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 7127.4 | |
| 草地 Grassland | 49 | 116.5 | 3208.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0 | 3377.4 | |
| 水域 Water area | 8.6 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 608.7 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 632.5 | |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 70 | 142.2 | 41.8 | 51.9 | 622.3 | 1.8 | 930 | |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 10.9 | 12.1 | |
| 总计 Total | 7087.4 | 7239.2 | 3331.3 | 669.3 | 629.4 | 13.2 | 18 969.8 | |
| SSP5 | 耕地 Cropland | 6754.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6754.6 |
| 林地 Woodland | 84.2 | 6960.6 | 79.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0 | 7131.8 | |
| 草地 Grassland | 50.6 | 118 | 3206.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3378.5 | |
| 水域 Water area | 35.5 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 592.2 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 643 | |
| 建设用地 Urbanized land | 161.9 | 151.3 | 44.5 | 69.6 | 620.9 | 1.5 | 1049.7 | |
| 未利用地 Barren land | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 11.3 | 12.2 | |
| 总计 Total | 7087.4 | 7239.2 | 3331.3 | 669.3 | 629.4 | 13.2 | 18 969.8 | |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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