基于减量化目标的农户施药行为研究——来自7省种粮农户的微观数据

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熊鹰^1,,
李晓^1,,,
钟钰²
1.四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所成都 610066
2.中国农业科学院农村经济与发展研究所北京 100081
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2020YFD1100605
四川省社会科学重点研究基地四川县域经济发展研究中心项目xy2020008
四川省农业科学院学科建设推进工程2021XKJS071
中国农业科学院联合攻关重大科研任务CAAS-ZDRW202012
四川省农业科学院青年领军人才研究基金2019LJRC023

详细信息

作者简介:熊鹰, 主要研究方向为农业经济与生态经济。E-mail: xiongying0112@163.com

通讯作者:李晓, 主要研究方向为农业技术经济。E-mail: 54540677@qq.com

中图分类号:F323.3

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-12-28
录用日期:2021-02-28
刊出日期:2021-07-01

Farmers' behavior toward pesticide input based on the reduction target: Micro-data of grain farmers from seven provinces

XIONG Ying^1,,
LI Xiao^1,,,
ZHONG Yu²
1. Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
2. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: the National Key R & D Program of China2020YFD1100605
the Project of Research Center of Sichuan County Economy Development, the Research Base of Social Science of Sichuan Provincexy2020008
the Project of Discipline Construction and Promotion of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences2021XKJS071
the Major Scientific Research Tasks Jointly Tackled by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesCAAS-ZDRW202012
the Research Fund for Leading Young Talents of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences2019LJRC023

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Corresponding author:LI Xiao, E-mail: 54540677@qq.com

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摘要
摘要:农药投入过量是我国农业生产中的普遍问题，推进农药减量投入是促进农业绿色、可持续发展的重要举措。农户是农药施用的微观决策主体，对农户施药行为进行深入的理论和实证研究，有利于引导农户减少农药投入。本研究通过分析农户施药行为的内在机理，对影响农户施药行为的内外部因素做出细化，弥补现有研究在生产经营、外部环境等影响因素分析上存在遗漏部分重要因素或表征变量不够准确的不足。基于7省746户种粮农户的调查数据，采用广义有序Logit模型，对影响农户施药行为的个体和家庭因素、生产经营因素、外部环境因素进行实证分析，弥补了传统OLS模型或二项Logit模型估计方法的不足，揭示了各因素对农户施药行为的影响方向和影响程度。结果表明：1）从影响方向看，受教育程度、种粮面积、地块集中度、地权稳定性、农药投入成本、农业技术培训、农业生产保险等变量对农户施药强度具有显著的负向影响，年龄、种粮收入占比、种粮动机等变量对农户施药强度具有显著的正向影响，表明农户年龄越小、受教育程度越高、种粮面积越大、地块集中度越高、地权稳定性越好、种粮收入占比较低、以自给为目的、农药投入成本越低、参与农业技术培训和农业生产保险，施药强度越低。2）从影响程度看，农业技术培训、农业生产保险、种粮收入占比、受教育程度、地块集中度、地权稳定性、种粮动机等变量对农户施药强度的影响较大，而种粮面积、农户年龄、农药投入成本的影响相对较小。为激励农户减量投入农药，政府应采取有效措施激发农户安全生产的内生动力，也为农户减少农药投入创造有利的外部环境。
关键词:施药行为/
内在机理/
种粮农户/
广义有序Logit模型
Abstract:Excessive pesticide input is a common problem of agricultural production in China. The reduction of pesticide input is important for promoting green and sustainable agricultural development. Farmers are the main micro-decision-making bodies for pesticide inputs; therefore, theoretical and empirical research was conducted on farmers' behavior regarding pesticide input. This study examined the important factors finely through analyzing internal mechanism of farmers' pesticide input behavior, such as production, operation, and the external environment, which were not considered in the prior researches. Based on the household survey data of 746 grain farmers from seven provinces of China, the generalized ordered Logit model was used to empirically analyze the effects of individual and family factors, production factors, and external environmental factors on farmers' behavior toward pesticide input. This study compensated for the shortcomings of the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) model or the binomial Logit model estimation method and highlighted the impact direction and degree of each factor on farmers' pesticide input behavior. The results showed that 1) from the perspective of impact direction, education level, sown area of grain, land concentration, land tenure, pesticide input cost, agricultural technology training, and agricultural production insurance had significant negative effects on pesticide input intensity. Farmers' age, grain income proportion, and production motivation had significant positive effects on the pesticide input intensity. These results suggest that younger age, a higher education level, greater sown area of grain, higher land concentration, better land tenure, lower grain income proportion, production for self-sufficiency, lower pesticide input cost, participation in agricultural technology training, and agricultural production insurance were associated with a lower likelihood of pesticide input. 2) From the perspective of impact degree, agricultural technical training, agricultural production insurance, grain income proportion, education level, land concentration, land tenure, and production motivation had greater effects on pesticide input intensity, whereas the effects of sown area of grain, farmer's age, and pesticide input cost were weaker. To encourage farmers to reduce pesticide input, the government should introduce measures to stimulate the endogenous power of farmers' safe production and create supportive external conditions.
Key words:Pesticide input behavior/
Internal mechanism/
Grain farmers/
Genseralized ordered Logit model

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表1样本农户基本统计特征
Table1.Basic statistical characteristics of sample farmers

类型 Type	选项 Option	样本量(户) Sample size (households)	百分比 Percentage (%)	类型 Type	选项 Option	样本量(户) Sample size (households)	百分比 Percentage (%)
年龄 Age	< 35	38	5.09	受教育程度 Education	文盲Illiterate	26	3.49
年龄 Age	35~45	108	14.48		小学Primary school	205	27.48
	45~55	234	31.37		初中Middle school	328	43.97
	55~65	233	31.23		高中或中专High school or secondary school	164	21.98
	≥65	133	17.83		大专及以上College or above	23	3.08
务农劳动力 Agricultural labor	0	24	3.22	种粮面积 Sown area of grain	< 0.67 hm²	237	31.77
	1~2	596	79.89		0.67~3.33 hm²	254	34.05
	3~4	118	15.82		3.33~6.67 hm²	110	14.75
	5~6	8	1.07		6.67~13.33 hm²	64	8.58
种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	< 10%	147	19.71		≥13.33 hm²	81	10.86
	10%~30%	133	17.83	种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	自给Self-supply	97	13.00
	30%~50%	127	17.02		自给和增收 Self-supply and income increase	317	42.49
	≥50	339	45.44		自给和增收 Self-supply and income increase	317	42.49
					增收Income increase	332	44.50

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表2农户施药行为调查的变量解释及特征值
Table2.Variables explanation and characteristic values of farmers' behavior survey of pesticide input

变量Variable		变量解释Explanation of variable	平均值Mean	标准差Standard deviation
被解释变量 Dependent variable	农户施药强度 Pesticide input intensity	1=低; 2=中等; 3=较高; 4=高 1=low; 2=middle; 3=relatively high; 4=high	2.66	0.84
解释变量 Independent variable	个体与家庭因素Personal and family factors
	性别Gender	1=男性; 0=女性 1=male; 0=female	0.86	0.35
	年龄Age	周岁Year of life	53.66	10.96
	受教育程度 Education	0=文盲; 1=小学; 2=初中; 3=高中或中专; 4=大专及以上 1=illiterate; 2=primary school; 3=middle school; 4=high school or secondary school; 5=college or above	1.94	0.87
	务农劳动力人数 Number of agricultural labors	人Person	1.99	0.90
	生产经营因素 Production and operation factors
	种粮面积 Sown area of grain	hm²	4.92	9.66
	地权稳定性 Land tenure	0=差; 1=一般; 2=较好; 3=好 0=poor; 1=general; 2=good; 3=very good	1.78	1.26
	地块集中度 Land concentration	0=分散; 1=比较集中; 2=集中 0=scattered; 1=comparatively concentrated; 2=concentrated	0.59	0.78
	种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	%	47.85	34.98
	种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	0=自给; 1=自给和增收; 2=增收 0=self-supply; 1=self-supply and income increase; 2=income increase	1.29	0.70
	外部环境因素 External environmental factors
	粮食销售价格 Sale price of grain	￥?kg^?1	2.82	9.21
	农药投入成本 Pesticide input cost	￥?hm^?2	751.00	542.11
	种粮补贴 Grain subsidy	×10⁴￥	1.23	2.80
	农业技术培训Agricultural technology training	0=未参与; 1=参与 0=not participate; 1=participate	0.25	0.43
	农业生产保险Agricultural production insurance	0=未参与; 1=参与 0=not participate; 1=participate	0.46	0.50

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表3农户施药强度影响因素回归结果
Table3.Regression results of impact factors of pesticide input intensity of farmers

解释变量Independent variable		y=1	y=2	y=3
性别 Gender	系数Coefficient	0.62(0.93)	0.57(1.33)	0.03(0.08)
性别 Gender	OR值OR value	1.86(1.25)	1.76(0.75)	1.03(0.46)
年龄 Age	系数Coefficient	0.05^*(1.70)	0.05^***(3.05)	0.05^***(2.14)
年龄 Age	OR值OR value	1.05(0.03)	1.05(0.02)	1.06(0.02)
受教育程度 Education	系数Coefficient	-1.53^***(-3.82)	-0.93^***(-4.23)	-1.88^***(-6.60)
受教育程度 Education	OR值OR value	0.22(0.09)	0.40(0.09)	0.15(0.04)
务农劳动力人数 Number of agricultural labors	系数Coefficient	-0.01(-0.02)	0.13(0.78)	0.19(1.18)
务农劳动力人数 Number of agricultural labors	OR值OR value	1.01(0.24)	1.14(0.19)	1.21(0.20)
种粮面积 Sown area of grain	系数Coefficient	-0.11 ^**(-2.00)	-0.05^**(-2.00)	-0.12 ^***(-3.52)
种粮面积 Sown area of grain	OR值OR value	0.90(0.05)	0.94(0.03)	0.89(0.03)
地块集中度 Land concentration	系数Coefficient	-0.87^***(-2.78)	-0.61^***(-3.19)	-1.00^***(-3.40)
地块集中度 Land concentration	OR值OR value	0.42(0.13)	0.54(0.10)	0.37(0.11)
地权稳定性 Land tenure	系数Coefficient	-0.39^**(-2.60)	-0.99^***(-6.65)	-1.53^**(-2.11)
地权稳定性 Land tenure	OR值OR value	0.68(0.10)	0.37(0.06)	0.22(0.16)
种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	系数Coefficient	2.06^***(3.77)	4.10^***(5.62)	5.38^***(2.70)
种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	OR值OR value	7.84(4.28)	4.75(3.53)	6.99(3.68)
种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	系数Coefficient	1.28^*(2.44)	0.86^***(2.89)	0.46^**(1.67)
种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	OR值OR value	3.59(1.88)	2.37(0.71)	1.58(0.44)
粮食销售价格 Sale price of grain	系数Coefficient	1.09(0.71)	0.04(0.51)	0.00(0.00)
粮食销售价格 Sale price of grain	OR值OR value	3.00(4.64)	1.04(0.08)	1.00(0.34)
农药投入成本 Pesticide input cost	系数Coefficient	-0.01^**(-2.43)	-0.01^**(-2.16)	-0.02^**(-2.21)
农药投入成本 Pesticide input cost	OR值OR value	0.99(0.01)	0.99(0.00)	0.98(0.01)
种粮补贴 Grain subsidy	系数Coefficient	-0.06(-0.75)	-0.00(-0.05)	0.29(1.66)
种粮补贴 Grain subsidy	OR值OR value	0.94(0.07)	1.00(0.09)	1.34(0.24)
农业技术培训 Agricultural technology training	系数Coefficient	-1.52^***(-2.78)	-2.62^**(-2.33)	-2.67^***(-6.36)
农业技术培训 Agricultural technology training	OR值OR value	0.22(0.12)	0.07(0.08)	0.07(0.03)
农业生产保险 Agricultural production insurance	系数Coefficient	-2.35^***(-5.39)	-2.11^***(-6.51)	-3.32^***(-2.90)
农业生产保险 Agricultural production insurance	OR值OR value	0.09(0.04)	0.12(0.04)	0.04(0.04)
Log likelihood	-383.52
prob > χ²	0.00
Wald χ²(45)	1059.53
pseudo χ²	0.58
^*、^、^分别表示在P < 1%、P < 5%和P < 10%水平显著; 系数右括号内数字为Z统计值, OR值右括号内数字为Robust的标准误。, , * mean significant at P < 1%, P < 5% and P < 10% levels, respectively; The number in the right bracket of the coefficient is Z statistic value. The number in the right bracket of the OR value is Robust’s standard error.

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表4自变量取均值对农户施药强度概率的边际贡献(MEMs)
Table4.Marginal effects at mean of farmer's pesticide input intensity probability (MEMs)

解释变量Independent variable	pr (y=1)	pr (y=2)	pr (y=3)	pr (y=4)
性别Gender	?0.00(0.00)	-11.02 (0.08)	10.99(0.08)	0.03(0.00)
年龄Age	?0.00(0.00)	-0.96^***(0.00)	0.92^***(0.00)	0.05^*(0.00)
受教育程度Education	0.01(0.00)	18.03^***(0.04)	-16.29^***(0.04)	-1.75^**(0.01)
务农劳动力人数Number of agricultural labors	?0.00(0.00)	-2.57(0.03)	2.39(0.03)	0.18(0.00)
种粮面积Sown area of grain	0.00(0.00)	1.01^**(0.01)	-0.96^*(0.01)	-0.10^*(0.00)
地块集中度Land concentration	0.00(0.00)	11.81^***(0.04)	-11.01^**(0.04)	-0.81^**(0.00)
地权稳定性Land tenure	0.01(0.00)	19.16^***(0.03)	-18.80^***(0.03)	-0.36^*(0.00)
种粮收入占比Grain income proportion	?0.03(0.00)	-9.63^***(0.13)	17.75^***(0.13)	1.92^**(0.01)
种粮动机Motivation of growing grain	?0.01(0.00)	-16.80^***(0.06)	16.37^***(0.06)	0.43(0.00)
粮食销售价格Sale price of grain	?0.00(0.00)	-0.78(0.05)	0.79(0.02)	0.00(0.00)
农药投入成本Pesticide input cost	0.00(0.00)	0.20(0.00)	-0.18^**(0.00)	-0.01^*(0.00)
种粮补贴Grain subsidy	0.00(0.00)	0.08(0.02)	-0.36(0.02)	0.27(0.00)
农业技术培训Agricultural technology training	0.00(0.00)	11.89^***(0.08)	-19.45^***(0.08)	-2.44^**(0.01)
农业生产保险Agricultural production insurance	0.01(0.00)	10.94^***(0.07)	-18.77^***(0.07)	-2.19^**(0.01)
^**、^、^分别表示在P < 1%、P < 5%和P < 10%水平显著, 括号内数字为标准误。^, ^, ^* mean significant at P < 1%, P < 5% and P < 10% levels, respectively. The number in the bracket is standard error.

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表5自变量对农户施药强度概率的平均边际贡献(AMEs)
Table5.Average marginal effects of farmer's pesticide input intensity probability (AEMs)

解释变量 Independent variable	pr (y=1)	pr (y=2)	Pr (y=3)	pr (y=4)
性别Gender	–1.66(0.02)	-2.12(0.03)	3.56(0.04)	0.22(0.03)
年龄Age	-0.13^*(0.00)	-0.20(0.00)	0.32^**(0.00)	0.01(0.00)
受教育程度Education	4.09^***(0.01)	2.09(0.02)	-6.03^***(0.02)	-12.22^***(0.02)
务农劳动力人数Number of agricultural labors	-0.01(0.01)	-0.87(0.01)	-0.36(0.01)	1.24(0.01)
种粮面积Sown area of grain	0.31^***(0.00)	0.05^**(0.00)	0.32(0.00)	-0.68^**(0.00)
地块集中度Land concentration	2.68(0.01)	1.37(0.01)	1.57(0.02)	-5.62^***(0.02)
地权稳定性Land tenure	4.10(0.02)	2.47(0.02)	-4.03^***(0.01)	-2.54^***(0.01)
种粮收入占比Grain income proportion	-18.74^***(0.05)	-8.59(0.06)	13.95^**(0.05)	13.37^***(0.03)
种粮动机Motivation of growing grain	-3.42^**(0.01)	-2.34(0.02)	2.78(0.03)	2.98^*(0.02)
粮食销售价格Sale price of grain	-2.94(0.04)	2.67(0.04)	0.27(0.02)	0.00(0.02)
农药投入成本Pesticide input cost	0.04(0.00)	0.02(0.00)	0.02(0.00)	-0.09^**(0.00)
种粮补贴Grain subsidy	0.16(0.00)	-0.13(0.01)	-1.93^*(0.01)	1.91^*(0.01)
农业技术培训Agricultural technology training	4.07^***(0.01)	13.73^***(0.03)	-0.78(0.07)	-17.02^**(0.07)
农业生产保险Agricultural production insurance	8.90^***(0.03)	5.15(0.03)	1.24(0.03)	-15.29^***(0.03)
^*、^、^分别表示在P < 1%、P < 5%和P < 10%水平显著; 括号内数字为标准误。^, ^, ^* mean significant at P < 1%, P < 5% and P < 10% levels, respectively. The number in the bracket is standard error.

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表6农户施药强度影响因素稳健性检验回归结果
Table6.Robust test results of model regression of impact factors of pesticide input intensity of farmers

解释变量 Independent variable		y=1	y=2	y=3
性别Gender	系数Coefficient	0.57(0.84)	0.94(1.87)	0.25(0.46)
性别Gender	OR值OR value	1.76(1.19)	1.95(0.87)	1.21(0.43)
年龄Age	系数Coefficient	0.06^*(2.00)	0.04^*(1.53)	0.07^***(3.68)
年龄Age	OR值OR value	1.06(0.03)	1.07(0.03)	1.06(0.02)
受教育程度 Education	系数Coefficient	-1.80^***(-4.10)	-0.95^***(-3.73)	-2.34^***(-5.92)
受教育程度 Education	OR值OR value	0.17(0.07)	0.37(0.08)	0.16(0.05)
务农劳动力人数 Number of agricultural labor	系数Coefficient	-0.06(-0.25)	0.09(0.45)	0.18(0.91)
务农劳动力人数 Number of agricultural labor	OR值OR value	0.94(0.23)	1.09(0.19)	1.22(0.20)
种粮面积 Sown area of grain	系数Coefficient	-0.12^***(-3.25)	-0.06^**(-2.02)	-0.32 ^***(-2.69)
种粮面积 Sown area of grain	OR值OR value	0.87(0.03)	0.94(0.03)	0.88(0.05)
地块集中度 Land concentration	系数Coefficient	-0.60^***(-2.78)	-0.59^*(-1.68)	-0.99^***(-3.14)
地块集中度 Land concentration	OR值OR value	0.57(0.11)	0.45(0.14)	0.34(0.11)
地权稳定性 Land tenure	系数Coefficient	-0.53^**(-0.73)	-0.91^***(-5.49)	-1.59^**(-2.09)
地权稳定性 Land tenure	OR值OR value	0.69(0.10)	0.38(0.06)	0.19(0.14)
种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	系数Coefficient	5.33^***(2.58)	4.44^***(4.33)	5.86^***(6.22)
种粮收入占比 Grain income proportion	OR值OR value	6.73(4.32)	4.76(3.53)	7.70(4.23)
种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	系数Coefficient	1.20^**(2.22)	1.03^***(3.08)	1.01^***(3.03)
种粮动机 Motivation of growing grain	OR值OR value	3.09(1.63)	2.30(0.69)	1.58(0.44)
粮食销售价格 Sale price of grain	系数Coefficient	3.58(1.78)	0.05(0.14)	2.79(1.86)
粮食销售价格 Sale price of grain	OR值OR value	3.86(3.58)	1.06(0.19)	1.03(0.12)
农药投入成本 Pesticide input cost	系数Coefficient	-0.01^**(-2.12)	-0.01^**(-2.18)	-0.01^*(-1.66)
农药投入成本 Pesticide input cost	OR值OR value	0.98(0.01)	0.99(0.00)	0.99(0.01)
种粮补贴 Grain subsidy	系数Coefficient	-0.10(-1.14)	-0.60(-2.35)	0.71(1.63)
种粮补贴 Grain subsidy	OR值OR value	0.90(0.08)	0.95(0.09)	1.32(0.24)
农业技术培训 Agricultural technology training	系数Coefficient	-2.06^***(-3.18)	-2.49^**(-2.20)	-2.76^***(-5.83)
农业技术培训 Agricultural technology training	OR值OR value	0.15(0.09)	0.06(0.07)	0.07(0.03)
农业生产保险 Agricultural production insurance	系数Coefficient	-2.95^***(-4.75)	-2.05^***(-5.62)	-3.78^***(-3.10)
农业生产保险 Agricultural production insurance	OR值OR value	0.10(0.07)	0.14(0.04)	0.02(0.03)
Log likelihood	-294.22
prob > χ²	0.00
Wald χ²(45)	941.70
pseudo χ²	0.62
^*、^、^分别表示在P < 1%、P < 5%和P < 10%水平显著; 系数右括号内数字为Z统计值, OR值右括号内数字为Robust的标准误。^, ^, ^* mean significant at P < 1%, P < 5% and P < 10% levels, respectively. The number in the right bracket of the coefficient is Z statistic value. The number in the right bracket of the OR value is Robust’s standard error.

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参考文献(42)

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