孟凡乔^1,,,
张珂^1,,
王方¹,
王坤¹,
吴文良¹,
王开永²,
胡正江²,
张海霞²
1.有机农业与生物多样性北京市重点实验室/中国农业大学资源与环境学院 北京 100193
2.桓台县农业农村局 桓台 256400
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2016YFD0201204
国家重点研发计划项目2017YFD0800605

详细信息

作者简介:孟凡乔, 主要研究方向为农业生态系统碳氮循环。E-mail: mengfq@cau.edu.cn

中图分类号:S345

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-06-28
录用日期:2020-12-25
刊出日期:2021-03-01

Can organic agriculture feed China? Implications from the nitrogen supply

MENG Fanqiao^1,,,
ZHANG Ke^1,,
WANG Fang¹,
WANG Kun¹,
WU Wenliang¹,
WANG Kaiyong²,
HU Zhengjiang²,
ZHANG Haixia²
1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Organic Farming/College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2. Huantai Bureau of Rural Affairs and Agriculture, Huantai 256400, China
Funds: the National Key Research and Development Program of China2016YFD0201204
the National Key Research and Development Program of China2017YFD0800605

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Corresponding author:MENG Fanqiao, E-mail: mengfq@cau.edu.cn

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摘要
摘要:近年来，有机农业在全球得到了较快发展，然而对于其在农业中的定位和作用以及发展策略，尚存在较大争议。本研究从氮素供应角度，评估不施用化学合成氮肥对于中国粮食生产和消费的影响，以期为我国现代农业发展特别是氮素管理提供支撑。研究以中国整体农业生态系统为对象，基于共生固氮数量、农产品贸易对氮素供应影响以及粮食生产，分析在不同粮食消费水平情形下，有机农业能够养活的人口数量。研究发现，如果全部耕地按照有机方式管理，中国每年共生固氮量为15.41×10⁶ t。在不施用化学合成氮肥情形下，1979年和2018年粮食总产量分别为381.96×10⁶ t和420.72×10⁶ t。不考虑蔬菜和水果，分别能养活0.81×10⁹~1.24×10⁹人和0.50×10⁹~0.77×10⁹人，即中国耕地全部转化为有机农业方式，在当前耕地面积和科学技术条件下，难以养活全国人口。将进口农产品考虑在内，2018年实际人均粮食（折纯，不包括蔬菜和水果）消费量达689.35 kg·a^-1。减少食物浪费、调整食物结构和增加粮食特别是豆类进口，是解决中国粮食问题的重要举措，进口大豆等农产品对于中国化肥减量起到了重要作用。化学合成氮肥对中国粮食生产做出了巨大贡献，但氮素利用率仍有较大提升空间。有机和生态农业强调整体、协调、循环和再生，是引领中国农业可持续发展的理论基础和技术保障，在全国范围内应通过种养结合等措施促进养分的循环利用，降低资源浪费和环境污染。在政策和法律法规层面，可以通过生态补偿和种养循环等举措，提高氮素利用效率，实现粮食数量和质量安全以及生态安全等农业的多重目标。
关键词:有机农业/
豆科作物/
生物固氮/
种养结合/
生态补偿
Abstract:In recent years, organic agriculture has been rapidly developed in China and throughout the world. However, the position and role of organic agriculture in overall agriculture and the corresponding development strategy of organic agriculture are still debated. From the perspective of nitrogen (N) supply, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of not using synthetic fertilizer N on foodstuff production and consumption and to provide technical support for N management in China. The study selected the whole agroecosystem in China and quantified the symbiotic N fixation, the impact of agricultural product on N supply and grain production, and the population fed under different levels of foodstuff consumption. The annual N fixation capacity of leguminous crops in China was 15.41×10⁶ t·a^-1 if organic agriculture was adopted for all agricultural land. If no chemical N fertilizer was applied, the total agricultural product output in 1979 and 2018 was 381.96×10⁶ and 420.72×10⁶ t, respectively. These agricultural products (excluding vegetables and fruits) could feed a population of 0.81×10⁹-1.24×10⁹ and 0.50×10⁹-0.77×10⁹, respectively. Thus, if all agricultural lands were completely operated with organic agriculture principles and under the current acreage of agricultural land and science and technology levels, it would be difficult to feed the entire population of China. With consideration of the imported agricultural products, the actual per capita grain consumption (converted to standard grain, excluding vegetables and fruits) was 689.35 kg·a^-1 in 2018. Reductions in food waste, adjusting the food consumption structure, and increasing grain imports are key measures for resolving the food security issues in China. The importation of soybeans and other agricultural products has played an important role in reducing fertilizer usage in recent years in China. Chemical N fertilizer has made a great contribution to grain production in China, but there is still room for improvement in N fertilizer efficiency. Organic and ecological agriculture emphasizes the principles of holistic, coordination, circulation, and regeneration, which is the theoretical basis and technical guarantee to promote sustainable agriculture that will play a dominating role in agricultural development. The integration of cropping with livestock production should be disseminated and implemented throughout China to reduce resource waste and environmental pollution. At the policy and legislative levels, ecological compensation, and crop integration with livestock production may increase N utilization efficiency and achieve multiple goals of agricultural development, including food security, food safety, and ecological soundness.
Key words:Organic agriculture/
Leguminous crops/
Biological nitrogen fixation/
Integration of cropping with livestock production/
Ecological compensation

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表12018年中国主要作物种植制度分区^[11]
Table1.China's major cropping regions in 2018^[11]?×10⁶ hm²

区域 Region	省(市、自治区) Province (city, autonomous region	耕地面积 Area of agricultural land		区域 Region	省(市、自治区) Province (city, autonomous region	耕地面积 Area of agricultural land		区域 Region	省(市、自治区) Province (city, autonomous region	耕地面积 Area of agricultural land		区域 Region	省(市、自治区) Province (city, autonomous region	耕地面积 Area of agricultural land
长城以北 North of the Great Wall	内蒙古 Inner Mongolia	9.27		长城以南和秦岭淮河以北地区 South of the Great Wall, north of Qinling Mountain and Huai River	山东 Shandong	7.59		华中地区 Central China	湖北 Hubei	5.24		华南地区 South China	云南 Yunnan	6.21
	黑龙江 Heilongjiang	15.85			河南 Henan	8.11			湖南 Hunan	4.15			广东 Guangdong	2.60
	吉林 Jilin	6.99			江苏 Jiangsu	4.57			浙江 Zhejiang	1.98			广西 Guangxi	4.39
	辽宁 Liaoning	4.97			安徽 Anhui	5.87			福建 Fujian	1.34			海南 Hainan	0.72
	西藏 Tibet	0.44			北京 Beijing	0.21			贵州 Guizhou	4.52
	甘肃 Gansu	5.38			天津 Tianjin	0.44			江西 Jiangxi	3.09
	青海 Qinghai	0.59			河北 Hebei	6.52			四川 Sichuan	6.73
	宁夏 Ningxia	1.29			山西 Shanxi	4.06			上海 Shanghai	0.19
	新疆 Xinjiang	5.24			陕西 Shaanxi	3.98			重庆 Chongqing	2.37
	小计 Subtotal	50.02			小计 Subtotal	41.35			小计 Subtotal	29.61			小计 Subtotal	13.92

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表2中国主要豆科作物不施氮肥情况下的固氮水平
Table2.N fixation of main leguminous crops in China under non-N fertilizer application?kg?hm^-2

作物 Crop	最高 Highest	最低 Lowest	平均 Average	文献 Literature
大豆Soybean	150	92	121	[13]
紫云英Chinese milk vetch	—	—	100	[14]
苜蓿Alfalfa	200	150	175	[15]
三叶草Clover	—	—	165	[16]
花生Peanut	152	100	126	[17]

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表3中国主要作物种植区每年共生固氮量
Table3.Annual N fixation of leguminous crops in major cropping regions of China

地区 Region	耕地面积 Acreage of agricultural land (×106 hm2)	种植制度 Planting system	固氮作物 N-fixing crop	实际固氮量 Actual N fixed (×106 t)	满足该地区粮食生产的固氮量 N fixed for foodstuff production in the area (×106 t)
长城以北 North of the Great Wall	50.02	一年1熟 One crop-season per year	大豆 Soybean	6.05	3.03
长城以南和秦岭淮河以北 South of the Great Wall, north of Qinling Mountain and Huai River	41.35	一年两熟 Twice crop-seasons per year	大豆 Soybean	5.00	5.00
华中地区 Central China	29.61	一年两熟 Two crop-seasons per year	紫云英 Chinese milk vetch	2.96	2.96
华南地区 South China	13.92	一年3熟 Three crop-seasons per year	紫云英 Chinese milk vetch	1.39	0.70
全国总计 National total	134.90			15.41	11.69

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表41979年和2018年实际进入中国农业生态系统的氮素数量
Table4.N input into agricultural ecosystem of China in 1979 and 2018 ?×10⁶ t

项目Item	1979	2018
大豆消费带入的氮 N input from soybean consumed	2.19	30.54
化肥氮 Chemical fertilizer N	8.26	20.65
总计Total	10.45	51.19

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表51979年和2018年中国施用和不施用化学合成氮肥情形下的粮食产量比较
Table5.Foodstuff outputs in China in 1979 and 2018 with and without chemical synthetic N fertilizer?×10⁶ t

粮食类型 Foodstuff type	粮食折算系数1) Foodstuff conversion factor1)	实际粮食产量 Actual output			不施用化肥情形下粮食产量 Estimated output without chemical N fertilizer			不施用化肥情形下折纯粮食产量 Converted output without chemical N fertilizer
		2018	1979		2018	1979		2018	1979
谷类食物Cereals	0.84	610.04	280.27		139.30	313.46		117.43	264.25
薯类Yam	0.20	28.65	28.46		6.54	31.83		1.31	6.37
蔬菜Vegetables	0	703.47	0		160.63	—2)		0.00	0.00
水果Fruit	0	256.88	7.01		58.66	7.84		0.00	0.00
鱼虾类Fish and shrimp	1.02	64.58	4.31		14.75	4.82		15.04	4.92
畜禽肉Meat and Poultry	2.14	86.25	10.62		19.69	11.88		42.15	25.42
蛋Eggs	1.70	31.28	2.73		7.14	3.05		12.14	5.19
奶Milk	0.39	31.77	1.14		7.25	1.28		2.83	0.50
大豆Soybean	1.00	15.97	4.51		3.65	5.04		3.65	5.04
油Oil	0.15	13.59	2.47		3.10	2.76		0.47	0.41
总计Total		1842.48	334.51		420.72	381.96		195.01	312.09
1)粮食折算系数是指将各种农副产品折合为标准粮食的比例[21]。2)1979年全国蔬菜产量非常低, 且无统计数据。1) Foodstuff conversion factor refers to the ratio of converting various agricultural and by-products into standard foodstuff[21]. 2) Vegetable production in 1979 was very low and there was no data available.

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表62018年中国实际粮食生产、进出口和总供给量
Table6.China's foodstuff actual output, import, export and total supply in 2018?×10⁶ t

粮食类型 Foodstuff type	粮食折算系数1) Foodstuff conversion factor1)	实际产量 Actual output	进口量 Imported	出口量 Exported	供给量 Supply	折纯供给量 Converted supply
谷类食物Cereals	0.84	610.04	20.47	2.49	628.02	529.42
薯类Yam	0.20	28.65	0.00	0.00	28.65	5.73
蔬菜Vegetables	0.00	703.47	0.00	9.48	693.99	0.00
水果Fruit	0.00	256.88	5.65	3.14	259.12	0.00
鱼虾类Fish and shrimp	1.02	64.58	0.00	4.25	60.33	61.54
畜禽肉Livestock	2.14	86.25	4.22	0.38	90.09	192.79
蛋Eggs	1.70	31.28	0.00	0.06	31.22	53.07
奶Milk	0.39	31.77	2.74	0.08	34.43	13.43
大豆Soybean	1.00	15.97	88.04	0.13	103.88	103.88
油Oil	0.15	13.59	0.00	0.00	13.59	2.04
总计Total		1842.48	121.12	20.28	1943.32	961.90
1)粮食折算系数是指将各种农副产品折合为标准粮食的比例[21]。1) Foodstuff conversion factor refers to the ratio of converting various agricultural and by-products into standard foodstuff[21].

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表71979年和2018年中国不同农业生产与贸易情景下养活人口数量
Table7.Population fed in China under different agricultural production and trade scenarios in 1979 and 2018

粮食消费水平 Consumption level	平衡膳食模式下人均粮食消费量 Food consumption per capita in balanced diet mode (×103 kg?a-1)	2018年考虑进出口情形下养活人口 Population fed under consideration of import and export in 2018 (×109)	2018年完全不施化肥氮情形下养活人口 Population fed without chemical N fertilizer in 2018 (×109)	1979年完全不施化肥氮情形下养活人口 Population fed chemical N fertilizer in 1979 (×109)
低Low	252.64	3.80	0.77	1.24
中Medium	322.07	2.99	0.61	0.97
高High	386.60	2.49	0.50	0.81

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