黄法融1, 2, 4, 5,,,
李兰海1, 2, 3, 4, 5
1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室 乌鲁木齐 830011
2.中国科学院伊犁河流域生态系统研究站 新源 835800
3.中国科学院大学 北京 100049
4.中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心 乌鲁木齐 830011
5.新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室 乌鲁木齐 830011
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA2004030202
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学青年基金2017D01B52
详细信息
作者简介:于水, 研究方向为水文与水资源。E-mail: yushui17@mails.ucas.edu.cn
通讯作者:黄法融, 研究方向为生态水文。E-mail: huangfr@ms.xjb.ac.cn
中图分类号:S273.1计量
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2020-06-08
录用日期:2020-09-22
刊出日期:2021-02-01
Analysis of agricultural water resource vulnerability and its variable characteristics in Central Asia
YU Shui1, 2, 3, 5,,HUANG Farong1, 2, 4, 5,,,
LI Lanhai1, 2, 3, 4, 5
1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2. Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinyuan 835800, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
5. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
Funds: the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of SciencesXDA2004030202
the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China2017D01B52
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Corresponding author:HUANG Farong, E-mail: huangfr@ms.xjb.ac.cn
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摘要
摘要:农业用水是链接自然环境和社会经济发展的重要环节，研究农业水资源脆弱性的时空变化对揭示水资源的可持续开发利用、保障水资源安全、应对洪旱灾害具有重要意义。为研究中亚地区农业水资源脆弱性变化特征，本文以中亚五国为研究区，基于气象、土地覆盖、地形和社会经济数据，依据脆弱性概念框架，从暴露度、敏感度和适应度3个方面选取18个指标，建立了农业水资源脆弱性评价指标体系，采用等权重法和主成分分析法确定指标权重，对1992－2017年中亚农业水资源脆弱性进行了评价及特征分析。结果表明：1）中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间分布表现为“南高北低”的特征，5国中土库曼斯坦农业水资源脆弱性最强，其次为乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦，而哈萨克斯坦农业水资源脆弱性最弱；研究时段内农业水资源脆弱性空间分布格局变化较小。2）中亚农业水资源脆弱性随时间变化表现为“前期升高，中期降低，后期稳定”的态势，整个研究期内研究区农业水资源脆弱性变化类型以相对稳定为主。不同地区农业水资源脆弱性随时间的变化存在差异，吉尔吉斯斯坦西部和土库曼斯坦的农业水资源脆弱性升高，乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦以及咸海地区水资源脆弱性降低，其他地区相对稳定。3）不同地区农业水资源脆弱性对各指标的敏感性不同，北部农业水资源脆弱性动态变化对农田灌溉定额和灌溉指数以负敏感为主，对其他指标以正敏感为主，而南部对各指标的敏感性正负均有；相关性分析表明，森林覆盖率、农业用水比例、农田灌溉定额、水分胁迫指数、灌溉指数和农业水分生产率是导致中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间差异的重要因素。4）为降低农业水资源脆弱性，中亚地区需发展集约型农业，调整作物种植结构，推广耐旱品种农作物，进行节水灌溉。研究结果可为中亚农业水资源规划管理、农业生产布局调整以及农业可持续发展提供参考依据。
关键词:农业/
水资源/
脆弱性评价/
中亚
Abstract:Agricultural water utilization is a key link between natural environment and socio-economic system. It is important to investigate the vulnerability of agricultural water resources to secure water resource sustainability and mitigate flood and drought risks. To investigate the variable characteristics of agricultural water resource vulnerability in Central Asia, an index system was established with 18 indicators from three components—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation—according to the scheme of vulnerability assessment. Based on the data on socio-economic factors, topography, land cover, and soil from 1992 to 2017, agricultural water resource vulnerability in Central Asia was calculated via the Equal-Weights and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. The results showed that the vulnerability of agricultural water resources in Central Asia was high in the south and low in the north. Among the five countries in Central Asia, the highest agricultural water resource vulnerability occurred in Turkmenistan, followed by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan; the lowest agricultural water resource vulnerability occurred in Kazakhstan. These spatial patterns varied little over the past 26 years. Agricultural water resource vulnerability in Central Asia showed an increasing-decreasing-stabilizing pattern during the study period. Regional changes in the agricultural water resource vulnerability were dominated by a steady state during the entire study period. The variations in agricultural water resource vulnerability differed spatially over time, increasing in the west of Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, declining in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and the Aral Sea region of Kazakhstan, and with little variation in the rest of the study area. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the agricultural water resource vulnerability varied in different areas of Central Asia. Temporal variations in the agricultural water resource vulnerability in the north were negatively related to the farmland irrigation quota and irrigation index but positively related to other indices. The sensitivities of indices were more complex in the south. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the forest coverage rate, proportion of agricultural water, farmland irrigation quota, water stress index, irrigation index, and agricultural water productivity ratio more strongly affected the spatial differences in agricultural water resource vulnerability than the other factors. Therefore, intensive agriculture practices, cropping structure adjustments, application of drought-tolerant crop varieties, and water-saving irrigation technology and measures should be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural water resources in Central Asia. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in agricultural water resource vulnerability in Central Asia, explored the impact factors of these variations, and proposed recommendations to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural water resources. This work can inform agricultural water resources planning and management, adjustments of the agricultural production structure, and help to secure sustainable agricultural development in Central Asia.
Key words:Agriculture/
Water resources/
Vulnerability assessment/
Central Asia
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图1中亚五国地理位置及高程
Figure1.Location and DEM of the five Central Asian countries
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21992-2017年中亚农业水资源脆弱性评价指标空间分布[a: 人均水资源量(m3·cap.-1); b: 作物生育期降水量(mm); c: 作物生育期平均气温(℃); d: 作物生育期潜在蒸散量(mm); e: 地形起伏度; f: 产水系数; g: 农村安全饮用水指数(%); h: 土壤有效含水量(mm·m-1); i: 森林覆盖率(%); j: 农业用水比例(%); k: 农田灌溉定额(×104 m3·km-2); l: 水分胁迫指数(%); m: 灌溉指数(%); n: 土地覆盖类型(1裸地, 2城镇, 3草地, 4耕地, 5林地, 6水体); o: 农业增加值用水量(m3·$-1); p: 农业水分生产率(kg·m-3); q: 人均农业生产总值指数($·cap.-1); r: 施政效率; A: 暴露度; B: 敏感度; C: 适应度]
Figure2.Spatial distribution of agricultural water resources vulnerability indices in Central Asia from 1992 to 2017 (a: per capita water resources, m3·cap.-1; b: precipitation in crop growth period, mm; c: average temperature in crop growth period, ℃; d: potential evapotranspiration in crop growth period, mm; e: degree of relief; f: water producing coefficient; g: rural safe drinking water index, %; h: soil available water content, mm·m-1; i: forest coverage rate, %; j: proportion of agricultural water consumption, %; k: farmland irrigation quota, ×104m3·km-2; l: water stress index, %; m: irrigation index, %; n: land cover types (1 bare land, 2 urban lands, 3 grassland, 4 cropland, 5 forest land, 6 water bodies); o: water for agricultural added values (m3·$-1); p: agricultural water productivity ratio (kg·m-3); q: per capita agricultural production index ($·cap.-1); r: administrative efficiency; A: exposure; B: sensitivity; C: adaptation)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31992-2017年不同时段中亚农业水资源脆弱性时空分布
Figure3.Spatio-temporal distribution of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia in different periods from 1992 to 2017
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图41992-2017年不同时期中亚农业水资源脆弱性变化类型分布
Figure4.Distributions of agricultural water resources vulnerability change types in Central Asia in different periods from 1992 to 2017
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图5中亚农业水资源脆弱性对暴露度二级指标敏感系数的空间分布[a: 人均水资源量(m3·cap.-1); b: 作物生育期降水量(mm); c: 作物生育期平均气温(℃); d: 作物生育期潜在蒸散量(%); e: 产水系数]
Figure5.Spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficients of agricultural water resources vulnerability to exposure indices in Central Asia (a: per capita water resources; b: precipitation in crop growth period; c: average temperature in crop growth period; d: potential evapotranspiration in crop growth period; e: water producing coefficient)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图6中亚农业水资源脆弱性对敏感度二级指标敏感系数空间分布[a: 农村安全饮用水指数(%); b: 森林覆盖率(%); c: 农业用水比例(%); d: 农田灌溉定额(x104m3·km-2); e: 水分胁迫指数(%)]
Figure6.Spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficients of agricultural water resources vulnerability to sensitivity indices in Central Asia (a: rural safe drinking water index; b: forest coverage rate; c: proportion of agricultural water consumption; d: farmland irrigation quota; e: water stress index)
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图7中亚农业水资源脆弱性对适应度二级指标敏感系数空间分布[a: 灌溉指数; b: 土地覆盖类型; c: 农业增加值用水量(m3· Y-1); d: 农业水分生产率(kg·m-3); e: 人均农业生产总值指数(Y·cap.-1); f: 施政效率]
Figure7.Spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficients of agricultural water resources vulnerability to adaptation indices in Central Asia (a: irrigation index; b: land cover type; c: water for agricultural added value; d: agricultural water productivity ratio; e: per capita agricultural production index; f: administrative efficiency)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1中亚农业水资源脆弱性评价指标体系
Table1.Indices for evaluation of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia
| 一级指标 First grade | 二级指标 Second grade | 三级指标 Third grade | 指标指向 Grade effect |
| 暴露度 Exposure | 人均水资源量 Per capita water resources | 可再生水资源量/人口数量 Renewable water resources/population | 负 Negative |
| 作物生育期降水量 Precipitation in crop growth period | 4-10月降水量 Precipitation from April to October | 负 Negative | |
| 作物生育期平均气温 Average temperature in crop growth period | 4-10月平均气温 Average temperature from April to October | 正 Positive | |
| 作物生育期潜在蒸散量 Potential evapotranspiration in crop growth period | 4-10月潜在蒸散量 Potential evapotranspiration from April to October | 正 Positive | |
| 地形起伏度 Degree of relief | 高程最大值-高程最小值 DEM maximum-DEM minimum | 正 Positive | |
| 产水系数 Water producing coefficient | 可再生水资源量/4-10月降水量 Renewable water resources/precipitation from April to October | 负 Negative | |
| 敏感度 Sensitivity | 农村安全饮用水指数 Rural safe drinking water index | 农村饮用水达标人口/总人口 Rural safe drinking water population/total population | 负 Negative |
| 土壤有效含水量 Soil available water content | 土壤数据 Soil data | 负 Negative | |
| 森林覆盖率 Forest coverage rate | 森林面积/国土面积 Forest area/national land area | 负 Negative | |
| 农业用水比例 Proportion of agricultural water | 农业用水量/总用水量 Agricultural water withdrawal/total water withdrawal | 正 Positive | |
| 农田灌溉定额 Farmland irrigation quota | 农业用水量/耕地面积 Agricultural water withdrawal/arable land area | 正 Positive | |
| 水分胁迫指数 Water stress index | 淡水总流出量/(可再生水资源量-环境流量) Total freshwater withdrawal/(renewable water resources-environmental flow requirements) | 正 Positive | |
| 适应度 Adaptation | 灌溉指数 Irrigation index | 灌溉面积/耕地面积 Irrigation area/arable land area | 正 Positive |
| 土地覆盖类型 Land cover type | 土地覆盖类型数据 Land cover features data | 负 Negative | |
| 农业增加值用水量 Water for agricultural added value | 农业用水量/农业增加值 Agricultural water withdrawal/agricultural added values | 负 Negative | |
| 农业水分生产率 Agricultural water productivity ratio | 谷物产量/农业用水量 Grain yield/agricultural water withdrawal | 正 Positive | |
| 人均农业生产总值指数 Per capita agricultural production index | 农业生产总值/人口数量 Gross agricultural production/population | 正 Positive | |
| 施政效率 Administrative efficiency | (法律法规+监管质量+政府效能)/3 (Rule of law+regulatory quality+government effectiveness)/3 | 正 Positive |
下载: 导出CSV表21992-2017年中亚农业水资源脆弱性一级指标权重系数
Table2.Weight coefficients of first grade indices for evaluation of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia from 1992 to 2017
| 指标 Index | 1992-1996 | 1997-2001 | 2002-2006 | 2007-2011 | 2012-2017 | 1992-2017 |
| 暴露度 Exposure | 0.244 | 0.271 | 0.249 | 0.242 | 0.249 | 0.243 |
| 敏感度 Sensitivity | 0.456 | 0.500 | 0.423 | 0.432 | 0.451 | 0.440 |
| 适应度 Adaptation | 0.300 | 0.229 | 0.328 | 0.326 | 0.300 | 0.317 |
下载: 导出CSV表31992-2017年不同时段中亚农业水资源脆弱性的面积与比例
Table3.Areas and proportions of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia in different periods from 1992 to 2017
| 脆弱性等级 Vulnerability level | 1992-1996 | 1997-2001 | 2002-2006 | 2007-2011 | 2012-2017 | 1992-2017 | |||||||||||
| 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | ||||||
| 微度 Slight | 182.75 | 44.75 | 160.83 | 39.38 | 199.24 | 48.79 | 191.29 | 46.84 | 200.96 | 49.21 | 190.85 | 46.73 | |||||
| 轻度 Light | 93.64 | 22.93 | 108.95 | 26.68 | 79.85 | 19.55 | 86.55 | 21.19 | 76.88 | 18.82 | 86.98 | 21.30 | |||||
| 中度 Moderate | 20.58 | 5.04 | 27.47 | 6.73 | 18.60 | 4.56 | 31.92 | 7.82 | 40.99 | 10.04 | 20.61 | 4.94 | |||||
| 重度 Heavy | 68.44 | 16.76 | 61.11 | 14.97 | 63.52 | 15.55 | 56.60 | 13.86 | 55.67 | 13.63 | 70.85 | 17.35 | |||||
| 极度 Extreme | 42.97 | 10. 52 | 50.01 | 12.25 | 47.16 | 11.55 | 42.03 | 10.29 | 33.88 | 8.30 | 39.53 | 9.68 | |||||
下载: 导出CSV表41992-2017年不同时期中亚农业水资源脆弱性变化类型的面积与比例
Table4.Areas and proportions of different change types of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia in different periods from 1992 to 2017
| 变化类型 Change type | 1992-2001 | 1997-2006 | 2002-2011 | 2007-2017 | 1992-2017 | |||||||||
| 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | 面积 Area(×104 km2) | 比例 Ratio(%) | |||||
| 显著降低 Significant decrease | 0.49 | 0.12 | 15.95 | 3.91 | 4.37 | 1.07 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 61.33 | 15.02 | ||||
| 缓慢降低 Slow decrease | 22.66 | 5.55 | 122.27 | 29.94 | 44.45 | 10.09 | 57.48 | 14.08 | 1.05 | 0.26 | ||||
| 相对稳定 Relative stable | 192.05 | 47.03 | 205.46 | 50.31 | 283.79 | 69.49 | 347.52 | 85.10 | 279.71 | 68.49 | ||||
| 缓慢升高 Slow increase | 186.38 | 45.64 | 63.63 | 15.58 | 54.28 | 13.29 | 2.61 | 0.64 | 18.98 | 4.65 | ||||
| 显著升高 Significant increase | 6.78 | 1.66 | 1.06 | 0.26 | 21.48 | 5.26 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 47.31 | 11.59 | ||||
下载: 导出CSV表51992-2017年不同时段中亚农业水资源脆弱性与各指标的相关系数
Table5.Correlation coefficients between agricultural water resources vulnerability and different indices in Central Asia in different periods from 1992 to 2017
| 一级指标 First grade index | 二级指标 Second grade index | 1992-1996 | 1997-2001 | 2002-2006 | 2007-2011 | 2012-2017 | 1992-2017 |
| 暴露度 Exposure | 人均水资源量 Per capita water resources | -0.74 | -0.80 | -0.83 | -0.78 | -0.77 | -0.78 |
| 作物生育期降水量 Precipitation in crop growth period | -0.46 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.49 | -0.46 | |
| 作物生育期平均气温 Average temperature in crop growth period | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.41 | |
| 作物生育期潜在蒸散量 Potential evapotranspiration in crop growth period | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.48 | |
| 地形起伏度 Degree of relief | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.23 | |
| 产水系数 Water producing coefficient | -0.56 | -0.55 | -0.64 | -0.64 | -0.54 | -0.60 | |
| 敏感度 Sensitivity | 农村安全饮用水指数 Rural safe drinking water index | -0.75 | -0.78 | -0.78 | -0.83 | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| 土壤有效含水量 Soil available water content | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.15 | |
| 森林覆盖率 Forest coverage rate | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.93 | |
| 农业用水比例 Proportion of agricultural water consumption | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.94 | |
| 农田灌溉定额 Farmland irrigation quota | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.97 | |
| 水分胁迫指数 Water stress index | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.91 | |
| 适应度 Adaptation | 灌溉指数 Irrigation index | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| 土地覆盖类型 Land cover type | -0.20 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.23 | |
| 农业增加值用水量 Water for agricultural added value | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 0.63 | |
| 农业水分生产率 Agricultural water productivity ratio | -0.96 | -0.95 | -0.95 | -0.96 | -0.95 | -0.96 | |
| 人均农业生产总值指数 Per capita agricultural production index | -0.83 | -0.34 | -0.90 | -0.74 | -0.15 | -0.64 | |
| 施政效率 Administrative efficiency | -0.81 | -0.83 | -0.93 | -0.94 | -0.96 | -0.94 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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