基于气候背景的作物种植条件综合评价概念模型及其应用——以内蒙古巴彦淖尔河套灌区为例

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王秀荣^1,,,
王琼^2,,,
卢燕宇³,
杨松⁴,
于涵¹,
王立声¹,
赵嵘¹
1.中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京 100081
2.河北省沧州市气象局沧州 061001
3.安徽省气象局合肥 230000
4.内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市农业气象试验站巴彦淖尔 015000
基金项目: 中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201809

详细信息

通讯作者:王秀荣, 主要从事生态气候资源评价及气象灾害风险评估研究, E-mail:wangxr@cma.gov.cn
王琼, 主要从事天气预报服务及气候资源开发利用研究, E-mail:534251708@qq.com

中图分类号:S19;S162.3

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-06-12
录用日期:2020-09-10
刊出日期:2020-11-01

Conceptual model based on climate for comprehensive evaluation of crop planting conditions:A case study in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia

WANG Xiurong^1,,,
WANG Qiong^2,,,
LU Yanyu³,
YANG Song⁴,
YU Han¹,
WANG Lisheng¹,
ZHAO Rong¹
1. Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Cangzhou 061001, China
3. Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei 230000, China
4. Experimental Station of Agricultural Meteorology in Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Bayannur 015000, China
Funds: the Special Fund for Climate Change from China Meteorological A dministrationCCSF201809

More Information

Corresponding author:WANG Xiurong, E-mail:wangxr@cma.gov.cn;WANG Qiong, E-mail:534251708@qq.com

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摘要
摘要:为更好地适应气候变化大背景下作物种植条件变化，对各地区的作物种植条件进行综合评估已迫在眉睫。本研究应用层次分析法，基于天气学、气候学和农业气象学等原理，结合地方生态和经济发展需求，选取气候资源、灾害防御、种植配套条件3大类准则层，并选定包括光照资源、热量资源、水资源、空气质量、气象灾害、病虫害以及土壤条件、地理环境、基础设施、管理制度等相关14类小项指标，设计作物种植条件综合评价体系框架；然后通过统计分析设定14类小项指标评分细则，最终构建作物种植条件综合评价概念模型。并利用所构建的概念模型对内蒙古巴彦淖尔河套灌区主要作物种植条件进行综合评价应用试验。评估结果显示：巴彦淖尔河套灌区光照资源充足、热量资源较稳定、气候适宜度高、灌溉条件优异，春小麦、玉米和向日葵等主要作物关键生长期综合日照保证率、综合积温保证率、综合气温适宜保证率均高达85%以上，水分保证率100%，气温日较差较大，空气质量优良，灌区土壤肥沃；高温、大风、冰雹、暴雨等主要气象灾害及病虫害发生频率低，预报与防御能力较强；自然、地理、人文、政策等各类资源配置优势突出，综合分析评价得出该地区作物种植条件为Ⅰ级优良。综合分析可见，本概念模型选取的指标之间既相互联系又相互独立、具有层次性和结构性，是能定量反映区域气候系统和相关配套条件所构成的有机整体；指标获取便捷、可操作性好，评估结果可靠性良好，可推广于不同地区或不同作物的种植条件综合评价，为实现农业的生态化、可持续性发展保驾护航。
Abstract:In response to climate change and to the progress of social economy, science, and technology, alterations to crop planting conditions in various places are warrant further scientific, technological, and ecological development. In order to adapt and enhance crop planting conditions, as well as to promote the development of market economy, it is an urgent need to conduct a comprehensive assessment of local crop planting conditions. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology was applied, combined with the principles of meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology, to design a framework for assessing the crop planting conditions. Taking into account the needs of local ecological and economic development, the framework was constructed by selecting three major criteria, namely climate resources, disaster prevention, and supporting conditions for cultivation, as well as 14 related sub-indicators, including light resources, heat resources, water resources, air quality, meteorological disasters, plant diseases and insect pests, soil conditions, geographical environment, infrastructure, and management system. Through statistical analysis, the scoring rules for the 14 sub-indicators were set up and the conceptual model for comprehensive evaluation of crop planting conditions was created. To validate the novel assessment model, a comprehensive evaluation experiment was carried out on the main crop planting conditions at the Bayannaoer Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia. The assessment results indicated that Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District had sufficient light resources, stable heat resources, high climate suitability, and excellent irrigation conditions. The guarantee rate of light, cumulative temperature, and temperature suitability for key growing periods for major crops, such as spring wheat, maize, and sunflower, were more than 85%, whereas water guarantee rate was 100%. The temperature diurnal range was larger. The air quality was excellent and the irrigated areas had fertile soil. The frequency of major meteorological disasters such as high temperature, strong wind, hail, and heavy rain and plant diseases and insect pests were low, and the ability of prediction and defense for these disasters were strong. Natural, geographical, and cultural policies and various resources had prominent advantages in allocation. The comprehensive evaluation of crop cultivation conditions in the region was excellent, level Ⅰ. These results demonstrated that the selected indicators used by the conceptual model were interrelated and independent, hierarchical and structural, and could quantitatively reflect the complex setting formed by the regional climate system and relevant supporting conditions. Indexes were easy to obtain and operate, and the evaluation results were reliable. Therefore, the proposed conceptual model may be applied to the comprehensive evaluation of planting conditions in different regions or different crops, so as to guarantee the ecological and sustainable development of agriculture.

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表1作物种植条件综合评价指标体系
Table1.Comprehensive evaluation indexes system of crop planting conditions

准则层 Rule layer	指标类别 Indicator category	指标层 Indicator layer
气候资源 Climatic resource (IR)	光照资源 Light resources	日照保证率 Sunshine guarantee rate (IRsg)
	热量资源 Heat resources	积温保证率 Accumulated temperature guarantee rate (IRta)
		气温适宜度 Air temperature suitability (IRts)
		气温日较差 Daily temperature range (IRtd)
	水分资源 Water resources	水分保证率 Water guarantee rate (IRwg)
	大气环境 Atmospheric environment	空气质量优良率 Air quality good rate (IRaq)
灾害防御 Disaster defense (ID)	气象灾害 Meteorological disasters	发生频次 Occurrence frequency (IDmf)
	气象灾害 Meteorological disasters	防御能力 Defense capability (IDmd)
	病虫害 Plant diseases and insect pests	发生频次或潜势 Occurrence frequency or potential (IDpf)
	病虫害 Plant diseases and insect pests	防御能力 Defense capability (IDpd)
配套条件 Supporting conditions (IC)	土壤条件 Soil conditions	土质环境 Soil environment (ICst)
	地理条件 Geographical conditions	地形地貌 Terrain topography (ICtf)
	基础设施 Infrastructure	农业配套系统 Agricultural supporting systems (ICis)
	管理制度 Management systems	种植管理水平 Planting management level (ICpm)

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表2气候资源类评价指标等级划分和评分规则
Table2.Classification and scoring rules of climate resource evaluation indexes

指标类型 Index type	等级 Class	分值 Score
日照、积温、气温适宜度和水分的保证率(IR) Guarantee rates of sunshine, accumulated temperature, suitable temperature, and water (IR)	IR≥90%	100分100 points
	80%≤IR < 90%	90~100分(80%为90分, 每增加1%加1分) 90-100 points (80% is 90 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	60%≤IR < 80%	80~90分(60%为80分, 每增加2%加1分) 80-90 points (60% is 80 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	40%≤IR < 60%	70~80分(40%为70分, 每增加2%加1分) 70-80 points (40% is 70 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	20%≤IR < 40%	60~70分(20%为60分, 每增加2%加1分) 60-70 points (20% is 60 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	IR < 20%	60分以下Below 60 points
气温日较差(气温日较差百分位, IRtd) Daily temperature range (percentile of diurnal temperature range, IRtd)	IRtd≥90%	100分100 points
	80%≤IRtd < 90%	90~100分(80%为90分, 每增加1%加1分) 90-100 points (80% is 90 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	70%≤IRtd < 80%	80~90分(70%为80分, 每增加1%加1分) 80-90 points (70% is 80 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	60%≤IRtd < 70%	70~80分(60%为70分, 每增加1%加1分) 70-80 points (60% is 70 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	50%≤IRtd < 60%	60~70分(50%为60分, 每增加1%加1分) 60-70 points (50% is 60 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
空气质量优良率 Good air quality rate (IRaq)	IRaq≥90%	100分100 points
	80%≤IRaq < 90%	90~100分(80%为90分, 每增加1%加1分) 90-100 points (80% is 90 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	70%≤IRaq < 80%	80~90分(70%为80分, 每增加1%加1分) 80-90 points (70% is 80 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	60%≤IRaq < 70%	70~80分(60%为70分, 每增加1%加1分) 70-80 points (60% is 70 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	50%≤IRaq < 60%	60~70分(50%为60分, 每增加1%加1分) 60-70 points (50% is 60 points, plus 1 point for every 1% increase)
	IRaq < 50%	60分以下Below 60 points

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表3气象灾害类评价指标等级划分和评分规则
Table3.Classification and scoring rules of meteorological disaster evaluation indexes

主要气象灾害频次等级 Class of frequency of major meteorological disasters	分值 Score	气象灾害防御能力等级 Class of meteorological disaster prevention capability	分值 Score
偏低 Low	80~100分 80-100 points	制定气象灾害防御相关规划, 并经过地方政府审议通过, 有效贯彻执行; 气象灾害防御措施执行到位, 设施完备。 Formulate relevant plans for meteorological disaster prevention and approved by the local government and effective implementation; execute preventive measures against meteorological disasters properly and complete facilities	80~100分 80-100 points
中等 Medium	60~80分 60-80 points	制定有气象灾害防御相关规划, 气象灾害防御措施执行和设施情况一般。 Formulate relevant plans for meteorological disaster prevention, general for implementation of meteorological disaster prevention measures and facilities	60~80分 60-80 points
中等偏高 Medium on the high side	60分以下 Below 60 points	未制定气象灾害防御相关规划, 未能有效组织气象灾害防御措施。 No relevant plans for meteorological disaster prevention; no effectively organize preventive measures against meteorological disasters	60以下 Below 60 points

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表4病虫害类评价指标等级划分和评分规则
Table4.Classification and scoring rules of plant diseases and insect pests revaluation indexes

病虫害发生的气象潜势等级 Class of meteorological potential for plhant diseases and insect pestspests and diseases occurrence	分值 Score	病虫害防御能力等级 Class of plhant diseases and insect pests insect and disease resistance capability	分值 Score
偏低 Low	80~100分 80-100 points	偏低 Low	80~100分 80-100 points
中等 Medium	60~80分 60-80 points	中等 Medium	60~80分60-80 points
偏高 High	60分以下 Below 60 points	偏高 High	60分以下 Below 60 points

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表5配套条件类评价指标等级划分和评分规则
Table5.Classification and scoring rules of complementary condition revaluation indexes

配套条件 Complementary condition	分类 Classification	分值 Score
土壤环境 Soil environment	壤土比例≥80%, 土壤环境洁净为Ⅰ类 Loam ratio≥80%, soil environment at class Ⅰ	90~100分(80%为90分, 每增加2%, 加1分) 90-100 points (80% is 90 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	60%≤壤土比例 < 80%, 土壤环境洁净为Ⅰ类 60%≤loam ratio < 80%, soil environment at class Ⅰ	80~90分(60%为80分, 每增加2%, 加1分) 80-90 points (60% is 80 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	40%≤壤土比例 < 60%, 土壤环境洁净为Ⅰ类 40%≤loam ratio < 60%, soil environment at class Ⅰ	70~80分(40%为70分, 每增加2%, 加1分) 70-80 points (40% is 70 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	20%≤壤土比例 < 40%, 土壤环境洁净为Ⅰ类 20%≤loam ratio < 40%, soil environment at class Ⅰ	60~70分(20%为60分, 每增加2%, 加1分) 60-70 points (20% is 60 points, plus 1 point for every 2% increase)
	壤土比例 < 20%, 土壤环境洁净为Ⅰ类 Loam ratio < 20%, soil environment at clean class Ⅰ	60分以下 Below 60 points
	土壤环境为Ⅱ类, 在上述分值减去20 Minus 20 points from the above score for class Ⅱ soil environment
	土壤环境为Ⅲ类及以下等级, 在上述分值减去40 Minus 40 points from the above score for class Ⅲ or below soil environment
地形地貌 Landform	平原为主 Plain	80~100分 80-100 points
	丘陵为主 Hills	60~80分 60-80 points
	山地为主 Mountain	60以下 Below 60 points
农业配套系统 Agricultural supporting system	完善Perfect	80~100分 80-100 points
	较完善 Relatively perfect	60~80分 60-80 points
	不完善 Imperfect	60以下 Below 60 points
种植制度和管理水平 Cropping system and management level	完备而且高 Complete and high	80~100分 80-100 points
	较完备也较高 Relatively complete and high	60~80分 60-80 points
	欠缺也不高 Incomplete and low	60以下 Below 60 points

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表6作物种植条件评分等级划分
Table6.Grading of crop planting conditions

级别 Level	综合评分 Comprehensive score	作物种植条件描述 Describe of crop planting conditions
Ⅰ	[90, 100]	很好 Very good
Ⅱ	[80, 90)	好 Good
Ⅲ	[70, 80)	较好 Relatively good
Ⅳ	[60, 70)	一般 General
Ⅴ	(60, 0]	差 Poor

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表7巴彦淖尔河套灌区主要作物不同生育期光温条件阈值
Table7.Light and temperature thresholds of main crops in different growth periods in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District

作物 Crop	生育期 Growth period	时间 Time	日照时数 Sunshine hours (h)	积温¹⁾ Accumulated temperature¹⁾ (℃)	平均气温 Average temperature (℃)
春小麦 Spring wheat	播种—出苗 Sow-sprout	3月初—4月中旬 From early March to mid-April	180	120~130	5.0~8.0
	分蘖—拔节 Tiller-elongating	5月上旬—5月下旬 From early May to late May	150	260~320	16.0~19.0
	抽穗—开花 Heading-flowering	6月上旬—6月中旬 From early June to mid-June	70	160~200	20.0~25.0
	灌浆—成熟 FillingGrouting -ripening	6月下旬—7月中旬 From late June to mid-July	250	610~670	20.0~25.0
	全生育期 Whole growth period	3月初—7月中旬 From early March to mid-July	1 080	1 900~2 000	15.5~18.0
玉米 Corn	播种—出苗 Sow-sprout	4月下旬—5月中旬 From late April to mid-May	165	260~310	14.0~18.0
	出苗—拔节 Sow-elongating	5月中旬—6月下旬 From mid-May to late June	400	880~970	20.0~24.0
	拔节—吐丝 Elongating-spinning	6月下旬—7月下旬 From late June to late July	280	730~790	23.0~25.0
	吐丝—成熟 Spinning-ripening	7月下旬—9月中旬 From late July to mid-September	460	1 080~1 220	20.0~23.0
	全生育期 Whole growth period	4月下旬—9月中旬 From late April to mid-September	1 320	2 900~3 200	20.0~22.0
向日葵 Sunflower	播种—出苗 Sow-sprout	5月下旬—6月上旬 From late May to early June	70	185~225	18.0~22.5
	出苗—二对真叶 Sprout-two pairs of true leaves	6月上旬—6月中旬 From early June to mid-June	85	180~220	20.0~24.5
	二对真叶—现蕾 Two pairs of true leaves-budding	6月中旬—7月上旬 From mid-June to early July	220	600~680	21.5~24.5
	现蕾—开花 Budding-flowering	7月上旬—7月下旬 From early July to late July	150	400~460	22.5~25.5
	开花—成熟 Flowering-ripening	7月下旬—9月下旬 From late July to late September	480	1 000~1 250	18.5~22.5
	全生育期 Whole growth period	5月下旬—9月下旬 From late May to late September	1 000	2 400~2 650	20.0~23.0
??1)春小麦、玉米和向日葵的积温分别为≥0 ℃、≥10 ℃和≥5 ℃的积温。1) The accumulated temperature of spring wheat, corn and sunflower are accumulation of temperature above 0 ℃, 10 ℃ and 5 ℃, respectively.

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表8巴彦淖尔河套灌区主要作物播种面积比例及其全生育期主要气候资源类指标占比值
Table8.Ratios of planting area and climate resource indexes during whole growth periods of main crops in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District?%

作物 Crop	播种面积比例 Planting area ratio	日照保证率 Sunshine guarantee rate	积温保证率 Accumulated temperature guarantee rate	气温适宜保证率 Suitable temperature guarantee rate	水分保证率 Water guarantee rate	气温日较差百分位 Percentile of diurnal temperature range	空气质量优良率 Days with good air quality
春小麦 Spring wheat	12	96.0	93.3	84.7	100	87.2	83.8
玉米 Corn	33	93.3	84.0	80.0	100	88.1	92.1
向日葵 Sunflower	38	98.6	98.6	91.3	100	88.2	94.0
总计/平均 Total/average	83	96.0	92.0	85.3	100	88.0	91.8

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表9巴彦淖尔河套灌区主要气象灾害特征
Table9.Main meteorological disaster characteristics in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District

气象灾害 Meteorological disaster	高温 High temperature	雷暴 Thunderstorm	冰雹 Hail	大风 Strong wind	暴雨 Heavy rains	霜日 Frost
年平均日数 Annual average number of days (d)	7.9	18.4	0.6	11.3	0.4	62.8
发生频率 Occurrence frequency (%)	2.2	5.0	0.2	3.1	0.1	17.2
1981—2010年变化趋势 Change trend from 1981 to 2010	增加 Increase	减少 Decrease	减少 Decrease	减少 Decrease	略增加 Slightly increase	缓慢增加 Slowly increase

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表10巴彦淖尔河套灌区不同土层深度不同类型土壤质地占比
Table10.Proportions of different types of soil texture in different soil depths in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District?%

类型 Class	占比 Proportion
类型 Class	0~30 cm	30~100 cm
黏壤土 Clay loam	53.95	56.39
壤土 Loam	8.27	5.83
砂质壤土 Sandy loam	25.69	0
壤质砂土 Loamy sand	0.02	25.71
其他 Others	12.07	12.07

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表11巴彦淖尔河套灌区各评价指标评价赋分、权重及作物种植条件综合评价结果
Table11.Indexes weights, and assignment values of each level and comprehensive evaluation results of crop planting conditions in Bayannur Hetao Irrigation District

准则层(权重) Rule layer (weight)	指标类别(权重) Indicator category (weight)	指标层(权重) Indicator layer (weight)	指标赋分值(权重) Indicator assignment value (weight)
气候资源 (0.65) Climatic resources (0.65)	光照资源(0.18) Lighting resources (0.18)	日照保证率 Sunshine guarantee rate	95(0.12)
	热量资源 (0.40) Thermal resources (0.40)	积温保证率(0.44) Accumulated temperature guarantee rate(0.44)（0.44）	90(0.12)
		气温适宜度(0.27) Air temperature suitability (0.27)（0.27）	90(0.07)
		气温日较差(0.29) Daily temperature range (0.29)	95(0.07)
	水分资源(0.38) Water resources (0.38)	水分保证率 Water guarantee rate	99(0.25)
	空气质量(0.04) Air quality (0.04)	空气质量优良占比 Ratio of good air quality	95(0.02)
灾害防御(0.14) Disaster prevention (0.14)	气象灾害(0.74) Meteorological disasters (0.74)	发生频次(0.63) Occurrence frequency (0.63)	95(0.06)
	气象灾害(0.74) Meteorological disasters (0.74)	防御能力(0.37) Defense capability (0.37)	95(0.04)
	病虫害(0.26) Plant diseases and insect pests (0.26)	发生频次或潜势(0.52) Occurrence frequency or potential (0.52)	95(0.02)
	病虫害(0.26) Plant diseases and insect pests (0.26)	防御能力(0.48) Defense capability (0.48)	95(0.02)
配套条件(0.21) Supporting conditions (0.21)	土壤条件(0.23) Soil conditions (0.23)	土质环境 Soil environment	90(0.05)
	地理条件(0.12) Geographical conditions (0.12)	地形地貌 Topography	95(0.03)
	基础设施(0.42) Infrastructure (0.42)	农业配套系统 Agricultural supporting system	96(0.09)
	管理制度(0.23) Management system (0.23)	种植管理水平 Planting management level	95(0.04)
综合评分 Comprehensive score			95

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参考文献(33)

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