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基于危险性评估的福建省茶叶寒冻害保险费率厘定

本站小编 Free考研考试/2022-01-01
陶红超1,,
陈家金2, 3,,,
陈志彪1,
黄川容2,
孙朝锋2,
吴立2
1.福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室/福建师范大学地理科学学院 福州 350007
2.福建省气象服务中心 福州 350001
3.福建省灾害天气重点实验室 福州 350001
基金项目: 福建省科技计划项目2018Y0002
福建省科技计划项目2019Y01010202

详细信息
作者简介:陶红超, 主要从事自然地理研究。E-mail:463687964@qq.com
通讯作者:陈家金, 主要从事农业气象灾害风险研究。E-mail:cjj8284@163.com
中图分类号:F840.66

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-03-15
录用日期:2020-07-02
刊出日期:2020-11-01

Determination of premium rates for tea cold-frost damage in Fujian Province based on risk assessment

TAO Hongchao1,,
CHEN Jiajin2, 3,,,
CHEN Zhibiao1,
HUANG Chuanrong2,
SUN Chaofeng2,
WU Li2
1. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University/College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. Fujian Meteorological Service Center, Fuzhou 350001, China
3. Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350001, China
Funds: Science and Technology Project of Fujian Province2018Y0002
Science and Technology Project of Fujian Province2019Y01010202

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Corresponding author:CHEN Jiajin, E-mail:cjj8284@163.com


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摘要
摘要:为了提高福建省复杂地形下不同风险区的茶叶寒冻害保险费率设计的合理性，首先利用福建省历年气象数据、茶叶产量和灾情资料，计算茶叶不同寒冻害等级的减产率和出现概率，以此确定不同县域的茶叶寒冻害保险纯费率及基准费率，再结合寒冻害危险性区划，确定不同风险区域不同触发条件下的区域保险费率。结果表明：福建省茶叶在极端低温4℃以下的保险触发条件下，西北部区域海拔200 m以下、200~600 m、600~900 m和900 m以上地域保险费率分别为1.4%、4.5%、7.2%和10.2%；东北部区域海拔200 m以下、200~600 m、600~900 m和900 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.9%、2.6%、4.8%和6.4%；西南部区域海拔300 m以下、300~700 m、700~1 100 m和1 100 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.5%、2.3%、4.0%和5.5%；东南部区域海拔300 m以下、300~700 m、700~1 100 m和1 100 m以上的地域保险费率分别为0.5%、1.9%、3.9%和5.4%。总体上看，区域保险费率随着地理位置北移和海拔高度的增加而增加，研究成果可为福建省茶叶寒冻害指数保险产品的设计提供费率精算的技术支持。
关键词:茶叶保险/
寒冻害/
危险性区划/
差异费率
Abstract:The aim of this study was to improve the rationale of the premium damage insurance rate design for cold-frost damage in tea plants from different risk areas in Fujian Province. In doing so, we first calculated the tea yield decrement rate, both grade and probability of cold-frost damage occurrence by using historical data, so as to determine the pure rate and benchmark rate of cold-frost damage insurance for tea within each county of Fujian Province. Then, we determined the regional premium damage insurance rates for the conditions of each risk area and different triggers, combined with the cold-frost damage risk zoning area. The results showed that under the trigger condition for tea plants damage in Fujian Province, i.e., extremely low temperatures below 4℃, the regional premium damage insurance rates were 1.4%, 4.5%, 7.2%, and 10.2%, respectively, in the northwest area for < 200 m, 200-600 m, 600-900 m, and >900 m altitudes. At the same time, the regional premium damage insurance rates were 0.9%, 2.6%, 4.8%, and 6.4%, respectively, in the northeast area for < 200 m, 200-600 m, 600-900 m, and >900 m altitudes. The regional premium damage insurance rates were 0.5%, 2.3%, 4.0%, and 5.5%, respectively, in the southwest area for < 300 m, 300-700 m, 700-1 100 m, and >1 100 m altitudes. Moreover, the regional premium rates were 0.5%, 1.9%, 3.9%, and 5.4%, respectively, in the southeast area for < 300 m, 300-700 m, 700-1 100 m, and >1 100 m altitudes. In general, the regional premium damage insurance rate increased with latitude and altitude. These results can provide technical support for the actuarial calculation of the premium damage insurance rate in relation to the design of insurance products for the cold-frost damage index of tea plants in Fujian Province.
Key words:Tea insurance/
Cold-frost damage/
Risk division/
Differential rate

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图1福建省茶叶寒冻害危险性区划
Figure1.Division of risk of tea cold-frost damage in Fujian Province


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表1茶叶不同等级寒冻害的平均减产率及出现概率
Table1.Average yield reduction rates and occurrence probabilities of different grades of tea cold-frost damage
区域
Region		站点
Station		平均减产率 Average yield reduction rate (%)寒冻害出现概率 Probability of cold-frost damage (%)
极端最低温度 Extrememinimum temperature (℃)
(3, 4](2, 3](1, 2](0, 1](-1, 0](-2, -1](-∞, -2](3, 4](2, 3](1, 2](0, 1](-1, 0](-2, -1](-∞, -2]
西北部
Northwest
建瓯 Jian’ou 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ??1.2 ??1.4 ??1.5 16.7 22.9 ??8.3 12.5 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??6.3
建阳 Jianyang 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 ??2.3 ??2.7 ??2.9 18.8 12.5 10.4 10.4 14.6 ??4.2 ??6.3
延平 Yanping 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.3 ??9.2 10.2 10.7 ??6.3 ??6.3 10.4 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??4.2 ??0.0
邵武 Shaowu 0.6 1.7 2.9 4.0 ??5.2 ??6.3 ??6.9 14.6 10.4 10.4 10.4 14.6 10.4 10.4
顺昌 Shunchang 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 ??3.0 ??3.5 ??3.8 27.1 10.4 ??4.2 10.4 ??8.3 ??2.1 ??4.2
沙县 Shaxian 1.7 2.4 3.2 3.9 ??4.7 ??5.4 ??5.8 22.9 ??2.1 14.6 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??4.2
永安 Yong’an 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 ??6.1 ??6.5 ??6.7 16.7 ??4.2 ??8.3 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??4.2
三明辖区 Sanming District 3.8 5.9 7.9 9.9 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.7 ??4.2 ??8.3 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??0.0
浦城 Pucheng 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 ??2.4 ??2.8 ??2.9 ??6.3 16.7 14.6 20.8 20.8 ??2.1 10.4
松溪 Songxi 1.0 2.4 3.7 5.1 ??6.5 ??7.9 ??8.6 ??6.3 16.7 20.8 14.6 14.6 ??2.1 ??8.3
武夷山 Wuyishan 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.5 ??5.0 ??5.5 ??5.8 ??8.3 12.5 25.0 16.7 ??8.3 ??4.2 ??8.3
政和 Zhenghe 3.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 ??8.9 10.3 11.0 ??7.0 23.3 20.9 11.6 ??7.0 ??4.7 ??2.3
建宁 Jianning 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 ??4.6 ??5.6 ??6.1 10.4 14.6 ??6.3 16.7 18.8 ??2.1 27.1
明溪 Mingxi 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.4 ??8.8 10.2 10.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 12.5 16.7 ??4.2 12.5
宁化 Ninghua 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 ??5.4 ??6.1 ??6.4 12.5 10.4 14.6 18.8 10.4 14.6 10.4
清流 Qingliu 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 ??2.3 ??2.7 ??2.9 12.5 12.5 22.9 ??6.3 12.5 ??2.1 12.5
泰宁 Taining 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 ??8.0 ??9.0 ??9.5 16.7 14.6 16.7 12.5 ??6.3 14.6 12.5
将乐 Jiangle 2.4 4.5 6.7 8.9 11.0 13.2 14.3 20.8 10.4 10.4 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??6.3
光泽 Guangze 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.8 ??5.7 ??6.6 ??7.1 ??8.3 14.6 10.4 12.5 14.6 10.4 20.8
均值 Average 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 ??5.9 ??6.8 ??7.3 13.9 12.3 13.3 10.9 10.0 ??4.9 ??8.8
东北部
Northeast
连江 Lianjiang 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.1 ??8.0 ??8.9 ??9.4 20.8 ??4.2 ??8.3 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0
罗源 Luoyuan 3.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 ??7.6 ??8.5 ??9.0 20.8 ??6.3 ??6.3 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0
闽侯 Minhou 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 ??3.0 ??3.4 ??3.6 12.5 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
闽清 Minqing 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.5 ??8.6 ??9.6 10.1 22.9 ??4.2 10.4 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??2.1
永泰 Yongtai 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.6 ??5.3 ??6.1 ??6.5 16.7 18.8 ??4.2 10.4 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??2.1
福安 Fu’an 4.2 5.4 6.7 8.0 ??9.3 10.6 11.2 ??8.3 14.6 10.4 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??2.1
福鼎 Fuding 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 ??3.1 ??3.6 ??3.8 22.9 25.0 10.4 ??6.3 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??2.1
蕉城 Jiaocheng 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 ??7.6 ??8.6 ??9.1 10.4 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
霞浦 Xiapu 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.9 ??3.4 ??4.0 ??4.2 22.9 12.5 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
古田 Gutian 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 ??5.8 ??6.7 ??7.1 16.7 18.8 14.6 ??8.3 ??2.1 ??6.3 ??2.1
大田 Datian 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 ??6.6 ??7.3 ??7.7 18.8 16.7 ??8.3 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??4.2
尤溪 Youxi 3.3 5.1 6.8 8.6 10.3 12.1 13.0 12.5 16.7 ??4.2 12.5 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??6.3
德化 Dehua 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.0 ??6.2 ??7.4 ??7.9 12.5 18.8 14.6 ??8.3 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??2.1
屏南 Pingnan 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 ??1.5 ??1.8 ??1.9 ??2.1 ??2.1 14.6 14.6 22.9 18.8 25.0
寿宁 Shouning 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.9 ??2.5 ??3.1 ??3.4 ??0.0 ??0.0 14.6 14.6 25.0 20.8 25.0
柘荣 Zherong 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.7 ??3.3 ??3.9 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??4.2 16.7 25.0 22.9 14.6 16.7
周宁 Zhouning 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 ??1.6 ??1.7 ??1.8 ??0.0 ??2.1 10.4 25.0 18.8 22.9 20.8
均值 Average 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.7 ??5.5 ??6.3 ??6.7 13.0 10.3 ??9.3 ??9.2 ??7.1 ??5.6 ??6.5
西南部
Southwest
华安 Hua’an 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.8 ??6.5 ??7.2 ??7.6 ??8.3 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0
南靖 Nanjing 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 ??5.3 ??5.9 ??6.1 ??6.3 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
连城 Liancheng 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.7 ??8.3 ??8.9 ??9.2 18.8 20.8 12.5 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??2.1
新罗 Xinluo 4.2 5.0 5.8 6.5 ??7.3 ??8.1 ??8.5 18.8 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??0.0
上杭 Shanghang 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 ??1.4 ??1.6 ??1.7 10.4 ??6.3 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0
武平 Wuping 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 ??2.1 ??2.4 ??2.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??4.2
永定 Yongding 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 ??3.2 ??3.6 ??3.8 10.4 10.4 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??0.0
漳平 Zhangping 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 ??3.8 ??4.2 ??4.5 10.4 ??6.3 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??2.1
长汀 Changting 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.3 ??6.2 ??7.1 ??7.5 10.4 14.6 16.7 12.5 12.5 ??2.1 ??8.3
均值 Average 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 ??4.9 ??5.4 ??5.7 12.0 ??9.0 ??7.4 ??3.9 ??4.6 ??1.9 ??1.9
东南部
Southeast		 福清 Fuqing 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 ??1.9 ??2.1 ??2.2 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
长乐 Changle 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 ??5.2 ??5.9 ??6.2 14.6 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0
莆田 Putian 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 ??5.7 ??6.2 ??6.5 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
仙游 Xianyou 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 ??4.4 ??4.5 ??4.6 ??4.2 ??8.3 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
安溪 Anxi 4.1 4.8 5.5 6.1 ??6.8 ??7.5 ??7.9 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
南安 Nan’an 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 ??3.0 ??3.3 ??3.4 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
永春 Yongchun 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.5 ??2.9 ??3.3 ??3.5 ??6.3 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
惠安 Hui’an 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.6 ??7.3 ??8.0 ??8.4 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
泉州辖区
Quanzhou District		 5.8 6.6 7.4 8.2 ??9.1 ??9.9 10.3 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
厦门 Xiamen 3.8 4.7 5.5 6.4 ??7.2 ??8.1 ??8.5 ??0.0 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
平和 Pinghe 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 ??4.1 ??4.6 ??4.8 ??8.3 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
长泰 Changtai 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.4 ??6.0 ??6.7 ??7.0 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
诏安 Zhao’an 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.2 ??5.8 ??6.5 ??6.8 ??6.3 ??2.1 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
龙海 Longhai 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 ??3.7 ??3.9 ??4.0 ??0.0 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
云霄 Yunxiao 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 ??9.5 10.3 10.7 ??6.3 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
漳浦 Zhangpu 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.4 ??4.9 ??5.3 ??5.6 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??2.1 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
漳州辖区
Zhangzhou District		 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.1 ??6.9 ??7.6 ??8.0 ??2.1 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
福州辖区
Fuzhou District		 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 ??1.6 ??1.6 ??1.6 10.4 ??4.2 ??4.2 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0 ??0.0
均值 Average 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 ??5.3 ??5.9 ??6.1 ??4.6 ??3.2 ??1.9 ??0.9 ??0.1 ??0.0 ??0.0


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表2福建省各区域茶叶寒冻害保险平均纯费率及基准保险费率
Table2.Average premium rate and benchmark premium rate for tea cold-frost damage insurance in Fujian Province
区域
Region		 纯费率
Pure rate (%)		 基准保险费率
Benchmark insurance rate (%)
西北部 Northwest 3.13 4.47
东北部 Northeast 2.08 2.98
西南部 Southwest 1.61 2.29
东南部 Southeast 0.34 0.49
福建省 Fujian Province 1.83 2.62


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表3福建省茶叶寒冻害风险等级指标及权重
Table3.Index and weight of risk grade of tea cold-frost damage in Fujian Province
表征指标
Indicator		 风险等级 Risk level
轻度 Mild 中度 Moderate 重度 Severe 严重 Most serious
极端最低气温
Extreme minimum temperature (Td, ℃)		 2 < Td≤4 0 < Td≤2 -2 < Td≤0 Td≤-2
指标权重 Index weight 0.108 9 0.173 4 0.269 2 0.448 5


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表4福建省茶叶寒冻害不同风险区危险性指数均值及区域风险订正系数
Table4.Mean value of risk index and correction coefficient of regional risk in different risk areas of tea cold-frost damage of Fujian Province
项目
Project		 区域
Region		 海拔高度 Altitude (m) 区域
Region		 海拔高度 Altitude (m)
< 200 200~600 600~900 > 900 < 300 300~700700~1 100 > 1 100
指数均值
Average of index		 西北部
Northwest		 0.15 0.49 0.80 1.13 西南部
Southwest		 0.11 0.46 0.80 1.10
订正系数
Correction coefficient		 0.31 1.00 1.62 2.29 0.24 1.00 1.74 2.41
指数均值
Average of index		 东北部
Northeast		 0.15 0.45 0.81 1.08 东南部
Southeast		 0.10 0.38 0.78 1.08
订正系数
Correction coefficient		 中低海拔县
Middle and low altitude county		 0.33 1.00 1.81 2.42 1.00 3.93 8.01 11.05
高海拔县
High altitude county		 0.18 0.55 1.00 1.34 — — — —


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表5福建省茶叶寒冻害不同区域不同触发条件下的区域保险费率
Table5.Regional premium rates of tea cold-frost damage under different trigger conditions in different regions of Fujian Province ?%
触发条件
Trigger condition (Td) (℃)		 区域
Region		 海拔高度 Altitude (m) 区域
Region		 海拔高度 Altitude (m)
< 200 200~600 600~900 > 900 < 300 300~700700~1 100 > 1 100
Td≤4 西北部
Northwest		 1.37 4.47 7.24 10.24 西南部
Southwest		 0.54 2.29 3.98 5.52
Td≤3 1.25 4.05 6.57 9.30 0.42 1.78 3.09 4.28
Td≤2 1.09 3.55 5.76 8.15 0.32 1.33 2.32 3.21
Td≤1 0.86 2.78 4.51 6.37 0.22 0.92 1.60 2.22
Td≤0 0.64 2.08 3.37 4.76 0.16 0.67 1.16 1.60
Td≤-1 0.41 1.33 2.16 3.05 0.08 0.32 0.55 0.76
Td≤-2 0.25 0.83 1.34 1.90 0.04 0.16 0.28 0.39
Td≤4 东北部
Northeast		 0.87 2.64 4.78 6.39 东南部
Southeast		 0.49 1.93 3.93 5.43
Td≤3 0.70 2.12 3.84 5.13 0.30 1.19 2.42 3.35
Td≤2 0.54 1.63 2.95 3.95 0.15 0.58 1.18 1.62
Td≤1 0.39 1.19 2.16 2.88 0.05 0.20 0.41 0.57
Td≤0 0.25 0.76 1.38 1.84 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.09
Td≤-1 0.16 0.48 0.87 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Td≤-2 0.10 0.29 0.52 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


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