廖娜^1,,
王月健^{1, 2,,},
徐海量³,
樊自立³,
张正勇^{1, 2},
姚俊强⁴,
张青青⁵,
黄燕¹
1.石河子大学理学院 石河子 832000
2.绿洲城镇与山盆系统生态兵团重点实验室 石河子 832000
3.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 乌鲁木齐 830011
4.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 乌鲁木齐 830002
5.新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院 乌鲁木齐 830052
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41661040
石河子大学高层次人才科研启动项目RCZK2018C41

详细信息

作者简介:廖娜, 主要研究方向为土地利用与土地资源评价。E-mail:liaon96@163.com

通讯作者:王月健, 主要研究方向为干旱区生态环境演变、土地整治与乡村规划。E-mail:wangyuejian0808@163.com

中图分类号:F321.1

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被引次数:0

出版历程

收稿日期:2020-08-05
录用日期:2021-03-03
网络出版日期:2021-06-22
刊出日期:2021-06-01

Differences in and driving forces of cultivated land expansion in the Manas River Basin oasis, Xinjiang

LIAO Na^1,,
WANG Yuejian^{1, 2,,},
XU Hailiang³,
FAN Zili³,
ZHANG Zhengyong^{1, 2},
YAO Junqiang⁴,
ZHANG Qingqing⁵,
HUANG Yan¹
1. School of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
2. Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology, Shihezi 832000, China
3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
4. Urumqi Desert Meteorological Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
5. College of Grass Industry and Environmental Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China41661040
the High-level Talent Research Startup Project of Shihezi UniversityRCZK2018C41

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Corresponding author:WANG Yuejian, E-mail:wangyuejian0808@163.com

摘要
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摘要
摘要:新疆现代绿洲是两种不同经营模式（兵团农场耕作和地方家庭承包）下团镇绿洲耕地长期扩张的真实写照。本文以玛纳斯河流域石河子垦区144团与玛纳斯县兰州湾镇为例，首先基于1958—2018年的6期影像数据，采用土地利用动态变化度，分析了团镇耕地的扩张过程；进而采用多元逐步回归等方法，分析了兵团与地方绿洲扩张的驱动力；最后从全流域绿洲扩张的角度出发，结合绿洲扩张模型，测算了绿洲耕地的适宜规模。结果表明：144团与兰州湾镇的耕地面积均大幅增加，扩张的耕地主是由草地、林地转化而来；兵团耕地扩张的核心驱动因子为节水灌溉面积、水资源径流量、农牧业平均收入；地方则为人均GDP、农牧业平均收入、农业生产总值。流域的耕地面积远超适宜规模，生态安全隐患已经凸显。建议流域的各级政府遵循“山水林田湖草生命共同体”的理念和建设要求，统筹推进流域的综合开发；加快构建现代土地资源管理制度体系，科学划定生态红线，严格限定绿洲的扩张规模，促进兵团与地方的土地利用结构优化；坚持最严格水资源管理制度，“以水定地”，实现水资源高效利用，防控沙漠化对绿洲的威胁；推行土壤退化治理与土地整治相结合，提高土地利用效率和潜力，从而实现绿洲耕地的数量、质量、生态三位一体保护。
关键词:玛纳斯河流域/
绿洲扩张/
兵团农场/
建制镇/
驱动力
Abstract:The Xinjiang modern oasis is an example of a long-term expansion of the oasis arable land in regiments of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and local townships under different operating modes (corps farm and local household contracting). This paper used image data from six periods (1958 to 2018) to assess the change degrees of land use of the 144 Regiment of Shihezi Reclamation Area and Lanzhouwan Town of Manas County in the Manas River Basin. This study examined the process of oases expansion in regiments and local town, and analyzed the driving forces of expansion using multiple stepwise regression. Finally, to assess oasis expansion in the whole basin, the oasis expansion model was used to calculate the appropriate scale of oasis cultivated land. The oasis change process in the 144 Regiment and Lanzhouwan Town had obviously increased the arable land area, and the increased arable land was mainly transformed from grassland and forest land. The driving factors of the regiment arable land expansion were water-saving irrigation area, water resources runoff, and average income of farming and herding industries. The local driving factors were income per capita, average income of farming and herding industries, and gross agricultural product. Moreover, the arable land in the basin had greatly exceeded the appropriate size, and the potential ecological security had been highlighted. All levels of government in the basin should follow the concept and construction requirements of "mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands life community" to promote the comprehensive development of the basin, accelerate the construction of a modern land resource management system, scientifically delineate the ecological red line, strictly limit the scale of oasis expansion, and promote optimal land use by the corps and localities. Adherence to the strictest water resources management system, "water to determine the land" could aid efficient water resource use, prevent and control oasis desertification, promote soil degradation management and land remediation, and improve the efficiency of land use to protect the quantity, quality, and ecology of the oasis arable land.
Key words:Manas River basin/
Oasis expansion/
Corps farms/
Organizational towns/
Driving force

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图1石河子垦区144团和玛纳斯县兰州湾镇1958—2018年土地类型变化
Figure1.Land types changes in Regiment 144 of Shihezi Reclamation Area and Lanzhouwan Town of Manas County from 1958 to 2018


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图21958—2018年玛纳斯河流域兵团与地方耕地趋势图
Figure2.Trend map of the Manas River Basin crops and local cultivated land from 1958 to 2018


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表11958—2018年兵团团场(144团)和地方乡镇(兰州湾镇)土地利用变化特征
Table1.Characteristics of land use change in corps farm (Regiment 144) and local township (Lanzhouwan Town) from 1958 to 2018

	参数Parameter	144团Regiment 144	兰州湾镇Lanzhouwan Town
1958—1976	K (%)	1816.51	329.86
	S (%)	100.92	41.23
	Ps	0.90	0.83
1976—1987	K (%)	57.80	14.73
	S (%)	5.25	1.34
	Ps	0.92	0.29
1987—1998	K (%)	176.94	1254.15
	S (%)	16.09	114.01
	Ps	0.63	0.97
1998—2006	K (%)	34.72	0.498
	S (%)	4.34	0.0625
	Ps	0.29	1.00
2006—2018	K (%)	36.05	1.39
	S (%)	4.01	0.15
	Ps	0.25	0.08
K:变化动态度; S:变化幅度; Ps:变化状态与趋势。K: relative change; S: net change; Ps: status and trend.

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表2兵团团场(144团)和地方乡镇(兰州湾镇)绿洲扩张变化驱动因素的典型相关系数
Table2.Canonical correlation coefficients of driving factors for the oasis expansion in corps farm (Regiment 144) and local township (Lanzhouwan Town)

指标Index		单位 Unit	典型相关系数Canonical correlation coefficient
			144团 Regiment 144	兰州湾镇 Lanzhouwan Town
人口因素 Demographic factors	总人口Population (X1)	?104 persons	0.816	0.854
	农村人口Rural population (X2)	?104 persons	0.871	0.893
经济因素 Economic factors	人均GDP GDP per capita (X3)	￥	0.815	0.965
	农业生产总值Gross agricultural production (X4)	?108 ￥	0.868	0.890
	农村居民平均收入Average income of rural residents (X5)	￥	0.878	0.953
	第一产业产值比重 Proportion of output value of the primary industry (X6)	%	0.843	0.862
自然因素 Natural factors	水资源径流量Water runoff (X7)	m3	0.771	0.818
	人均承包地面积Per capita contracted land area (X8)	hm2	0.876	0.854
	人均开荒面积Per capita clearing area (X9)	hm2	0.835	0.816
科技水平 Technology level	节水灌溉面积Water-saving irrigation area (X10)	hm2	0.959	0.958
	科学技术人员Scientific and technical persons (X11)	Persons	0.912	0.908
	机械总动力Total mechanical power (X12)	kW	0.885	0.873

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表3兵团与地方农地制度演变表
Table3.Evolution of corps and local farmland systems

年份Year	兵团Corp	地方Local
1958—1976	包、定、奖经济责任制 Economic responsibility system for packages, sets and awards	人民公社所有制 People’s commune ownership
1976—1987	实行包产到组或到队的责任制, 大农场套小农场的经营管理体制(1984年 )Implement the responsibility system of contracting production to the group or team, and the management system of small farms from large farms (1984)	家庭联产承包责任制, 承包期15年以上, 二权分离 The household contract responsibility system with joint output, the contract period is more than 15 years, and the two rights are separated.
1987—1998	承包经营责任制和目标管理责任制(1990年) Contract management responsibility system and target management responsibility system (1990)	统分结合的双层经营体制, 承包期30年不变 A two-tier management system combining unified and decentralized operations were established, the contract period unchanged for 30 years.
1998—2006	“两费自理”以农业生产经营制度改革完善为核心“ Two expenses self-care” takes the reform and improvement of agricultural production and management system as the core.	以家庭承包经营为基础、统分结合的双层经营体制, 土地流转 Two-tier management system based on household contract management, unified and decentralized, land transfer
2006—2018	以完善团场基本经营制度为重点的改革思路和目标框架兵团团场承包制度基本确立 The reform thinking and goal framework focusing on improving the basic management system of the regiment field has basically established a contracting system for the regiment field.	以家庭承包经营为基础、统分结合的双层经营体制, 三权分置(2014年) Two-tier management system based on household contract management and a combination of centralization and decentralization, separation of powers (2014)

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表4兵团与地方水利设施建成时间表
Table4.Construction schedule of water conservancy facilities in corp farm (Shihezi) and local county (Manas County)

时间 Time	归属 Attribution	水库名称 Reservoir name	库容 Storage capacity (×104m3)	灌溉方式 Irrigation method
1956—1976	玛纳斯县 Manas County	新户坪水库Xinhuping Reservoir 跃进水库Yuejin Reservoir 塔西河水库Taxihe Reservoir	11 630	渠库结合灌溉 Canal and reservoir combined irrigation
	石河子 Shihezi	大泉沟水库Daquangou Reservoir 安集海一库Anjihaiyiku 蘑菇湖水库Muoguhu Reservoir 南五宫水库Nanwugong Reservoir 卡子湾水库Kaziwan Reservoir 献礼水库Xianli Reservoir 卡子湾拦洪坝Kaziwan Flood Dam 牛圈子水库Niujuanzi Reservoir 大石碑水库Dashibei Reservoir 洪沟水库Honggou Reservoir 莫索湾水库Mosuowan Reservoir	22 510
1976—1987	玛纳斯县Manas County	白土坑水库Baitukeng Reservoir	1000	渠、库、井结合灌溉阶段 Canal, reservoir and well combined irrigation stage
	石河子Shihezi	四大滩水库Sidatan Reservoir	10
1987—1998	玛纳斯县 Manas County	夹河子水库Jiahezi Reservoir 石门子水库Shimenzi Reservoir 旱卡子水库Hankazi Reservoir	7958
	石河子Shihezi	安集海二库Anjihaierku	2957
1998—2018	玛纳斯县 Manas County	肯斯瓦特水库Kensiwate Reservoir 皇公地水库Huanggongdi Reservoir 润祥田水库Runxiangtian Reservoir 梧桐沟水库Wutonggou Reservoir	20 650	喷灌转为膜下滴灌 Sprinkler irrigation converted to drip irrigation under film

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