韩淑敏2,,,
杨永辉2, 3,
周新尧2,
周宏飞4
1.中国科学院大学中丹学院 北京 100049
2.中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心/中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室 石家庄 050022
3.中国科学院大学 北京 100049
4.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 乌鲁木齐 830011
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA2004030203
国家自然科学基金项目31871518
详细信息
作者简介:辛萍, 主要研究方向为区域耕地-粮食-水资源耦合机制。E-mail: xinping@sjziam.ac.cn
通讯作者:韩淑敏, 主要研究方向为生态水文。E-mail: hansm@sjziam.ac.cn
中图分类号:P343.8计量
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2020-06-25
录用日期:2020-09-12
刊出日期:2021-02-01
Changes in water requirements for production and virtual water trade of cotton in Central Asia
XIN Ping1, 2, 3,,HAN Shumin2,,,
YANG Yonghui2, 3,
ZHOU Xinyao2,
ZHOU Hongfei4
1. Sino-Danish College of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
2. Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050022, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Funds: the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of SciencesXDA2004030203
the National Natural Science Foundation of China31871518
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Corresponding author:HAN Shumin, E-mail: hansm@sjziam.ac.cn
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摘要
摘要:棉花是中亚重要的出口农产品之一，在水资源日趋严峻形势下，评价棉花生产需水和虚拟水贸易对区域水资源管理具有重要意义。本研究基于中亚175个站点长期气象数据，利用ArcGIS空间插值和作物系数法，结合棉花空间分布情况，首先估算了中亚五国的棉花需水量和单产需水量；基于单产需水量和国际粮农组织（FAO）的棉花产量和贸易数据，分析了1992年以来棉花的生产需水量、虚拟水贸易变化趋势及影响因素；最后评价了虚拟水贸易对中亚水资源的影响。研究结果表明：1）中亚棉花需水量为761.0~1033.9 mm，单产需水量为2834.4~5732.1 m3·t-1，其中产棉大国乌兹别克斯坦为4263.8 m3·t-1。2）1992-2017年，中亚地区棉花收获面积减少和产量偏低，导致总产量下降，生产需水量从初期的不足300亿m3下降到目前的不足200亿m3；棉花消费量增加导致出口量降低，净出口虚拟水量从初期的200亿m3左右下降到目前50亿m3；年均棉花生产需水量、净出口虚拟水量和净出口占生产需水量的比值分别为237.2亿m3、147.4亿m3和62.1%。3）1992-2017年，乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦通过棉花出口分别输出其可更新水资源总量的18.4%和12.7%，加剧了咸海流域水资源短缺。因此减少农田输水损失，提高棉花水分利用效率，是提升中亚棉花总产、减少棉花生产耗水、提升棉花出口贸易、减少虚拟水外输的有效措施。
关键词:棉花/
需水量/
单产需水量/
虚拟水贸易/
中亚五国
Abstract:Cotton is an important agricultural export item in Central Asia. Given the increasing shortage of water resources, it is necessary to evaluate the water requirements for cotton production and the virtual water trade of cotton for sustainable water resource management. In this study, the water requirements and specific water demands of cotton in the five countries of Central Asia were estimated from the long-term meteorological data from 175 stations using the ArcGIS spatial interpolation and crop coefficient method along with the distribution of cotton cultivation. Parameters for the specific water demands and the production and trade data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as well as the amounts, change trends, and water requirements for production and virtual water trade of cotton in 1992-2017 were analyzed. Finally, the impact of virtual water trade on the water resources in Central Asia was evaluated. The results showed that: 1) the cotton water requirement was 761.0-1033.9 mm, the specific water demand was 2834.4-5732.1 m3·t-1, and the value of Uzbekistan cotton was 4263.8 m3·t-1, which was dominant in the calculations of water requirement for cotton production and the amount of exported virtual water of cotton. The parameters for the specific water demand were reliable for the spatial-weighted calculation processes. 2) From 1992 to 2017, the water requirement for cotton production and the net exported virtual water amount of cotton trended downward due to decreases in the total production and export amounts of cotton. The decrease in total cotton production resulted from a decline in harvested area, and low yields in some Central Asian areas directly led to decreased water demand for production (from > 30 billion m3 to > 20 billion m3). An increase in cotton consumption was the main reason for declining virtual water exports in Central Asia; the net exported virtual water volume dropped from 20 billion m3 to 5 billion m3. From 1992 to 2017, the annual water requirement for production, net exported virtual water, and the ratio of net exported amount to production amount of cotton were 23.72 billion m3, 14.74 billion m3, and 62.1%, respectively. At present, approximately one-third of the water requirement for cotton production is exported via virtual water trade despite falling cotton exports. 3) In Central Asia, 6.5% of the renewable water resources (not including water loss in farmlands and conveyance loss in irrigation events) was exported in the form of cotton exports in 1992-2017. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, 18.4% and 12.7% of the renewable water resources were exported, respectively, which negatively impacted the regional water resources and induced water shortages.
Key words:Cotton/
Water requirement/
Specific water demand/
Virtual water trade/
Five countries in Central Asia
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图1中亚五国地理位置、地表水分布、高程(左)及气象站、雨养/灌溉棉花分布(右)
Figure1.Geographical position, surface water distributions and elevation (left), and distributions of weather stations, planted cotton including rain-fed and irrigated (right) in Central Asia
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图21992-2017年中亚棉花产量、贸易量及消费量
Figure2.Production, imports, exports, and consumption of cotton in 1992-2017 in Central Asia
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图3中亚五国棉花(皮棉)产量、进口量、消费量和出口量(产量+进口量=消费量+出口量)
Figure3.Production, imports, consumption, and exports of cotton in Central Asia (production + imports = consumption + exports)
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图41992-2017年中亚棉花生产需水量及净出口虚拟水量
Figure4.Water requirement for cotton production and net exported virtual water of cotton in 1992-2017 in Central Asia
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图51992-2017年中亚五国棉花虚拟水贸易量
Figure5.Imported, exported, and net exported virtual water of cotton in 1992-2017 in the five countries of Central Asia
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图61992-2018年中亚棉花单产、收获面积及生产需水量
Figure6.Cotton yield, harvested area, and water requirement for production in 1992-2018 in Central Asia
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Table1.Cotton water requirement and specific water demand in Central Asia
| 指标 Index | 哈萨克斯坦 Kazakhstan | 吉尔吉斯斯 坦Kyrgyzstan | 塔吉克斯坦 Tajikistan | 土库曼斯坦 Turkmenistan | 乌兹别克斯坦 Uzbekistan | |
| ET0 (mm) | 1070.3 | 919.0 | 1129.4 | 1211.9 | 1340.6 | |
| 作物系数 Crop coefficient (kc)[23-24] | 4月 April | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| 5月 May | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.47 | |
| 6月 June | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.96 | |
| 7月 July | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.19 | |
| 8月 August | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.19 | |
| 9月 September | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.99 | |
| 10月 October | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.72 | |
| 需水量 Water requirement (ETC) (mm) | 928.1 | 761.0 | 906.8 | 932.6 | 1033.9 | |
| 单产 Yield (kg·hm-2) | 2157.8 | 2684.8 | 1756.5 | 1627.0 | 2424.9 | |
| 单产需水量 Specific water demand (m3·t-1) | 4300.9 | 2834.4 | 5162.4 | 5732.1 | 4263.8 | |
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