赵金鹏^{1, 2,},
王闫利²,
陆兴利²,
沈沾红²,
王明田^{3, 4},
李庆⁵,
王茹琳^{1, 2, 4,,}
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
2.四川省农村经济综合信息中心 成都 610072
3.四川省气象台 成都 610072
4.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
5.四川农业大学农学院 成都 611130
基金项目: 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-04
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Youth-31
国家现代农业产业体系四川水果创新团队猕猴桃病虫害综合防治岗位项目2013-2018

详细信息

作者简介:赵金鹏, 主要从事应用气象与气象服务工作。E-mail:421508153@qq.com

通讯作者:王茹琳, 主要从事气候变化与病虫害关系研究工作。E-mail:wrl_1986_1@163.com

中图分类号:P49

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-04-01
录用日期:2020-07-08
刊出日期:2020-10-01

Climatic suitable area analysis and response to climate change of Actinidia arguta in China

ZHAO Jinpeng^{1, 2,},
WANG Yanli²,
LU Xingli²,
SHEN Zhanhong²,
WANG Mingtian^{3, 4},
LI Qing⁵,
WANG Rulin^{1, 2, 4,,}
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorological, China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Rural Economic Information Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
3. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
4. Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610066, China
5. College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Funds: the Fund of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceKey Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-04
the Fund of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceKey Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Youth-31
the National Modern Agricultural Industrial System "Innovation Team of Fruit in Sichuan Province of Integrated Control of Diseases and Pests of Kiwifruit"2013-2018

More Information

Corresponding author:WANG Rulin, E-mail:wrl_1986_1@163.com

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摘要
摘要:对软枣猕猴桃在中国的适生区进行分析，旨在为软枣猕猴桃资源调查、保护、开发利用和引种栽培提供参考依据。采用生态位建模软件MaxEnt（maximum entropy model），结合ArcGIS（geographic information system）软件，研究影响软枣猕猴桃分布的关键环境因子及取值范围，预测当前气候状态及未来不同气候变化背景下软枣猕猴桃在中国的适生区。研究结果表明：影响软枣猕猴桃分布的关键环境因子有6个，其重要程度依次为：7月降水量> 4月均温>温度季节性变化标准差> 3月均温>最暖季降水量>海拔。当前情景下，软枣猕猴桃在中国的高适生区总面积为9.287×10⁵ km²，主要集中于东北东南部、华北东南部、华东北部和东南部、华中西部及西南东部；中适生区总面积为1.786×10⁶ km²，主要分布在东北中部和南部、华北南部、华东北部和南部、华东北部、西南西部及华南北部。在只考虑气候因子和海拔高度的情况下，RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，预测2070s软枣猕猴桃在中国的高适生区面积分别增加3.758×10⁵ km²、1.725×10⁵ km²和6.300×10³ km²，而中适生区面积在RCP2.6减少1.902×10⁵ km²，在RCP4.5、RCP8.5分别增加2.617×10⁵ km²和9.760×10⁴ km²。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下，高适生区和总适生区的质心到2070s将向东北移动；RCP8.5情景下，高适生区质心向东北移动，总适生区中心将向东南移动。研究分别对当前及未来3种不同情景下软枣猕猴桃在中国的适生区进行了10次预测，预测结果的AUC（Area Under Curve）平均值均高于0.98，表明此模型预测结果具有较高的可靠性。
关键词:软枣猕猴桃/
适生区/
气候变化响应/
MaxEnt模型/
环境因子/
中国
Abstract:Actinidia arguta is suitable for growing in a cool and humid environment. Compared with other species, A. arguta has higher nutritional and medicinal value and is also resistant to diseases, pests, drought, and cold. Determining a climactically suitable area for A. arguta may provide a reference for its investigation, protection, development, utilization, and cultivation in China. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) and ArcGIS (geographic information system) were used to study the key environmental factors and value range affecting the distribution of A. arguta. Predictions for suitable areas were performed under current and future climate scenarios. Environmental factors were tested for significance (via Jackknife), correlations were determined (via Pearson correlation coefficient), and six key environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. arguta were found (listed in order of significance): precipitation in July > mean temperature in April > temperature seasonality > mean temperature in March > precipitation during the warmest quarter > altitude. Presently, the total highly-suitable area is 9.287×10⁵ km² and is concentrated in the east of Southwest China, the west of Central China, the southeast of North China, the north and southeast of East China, and the southeast of Northeast China. The total moderately suitable area, distributed around the highly suitable area, is 1.786×10⁶ km². Representative concentration pathways (RCP) (i.e., future climate scenarios) predicted that the highly suitable areas will increase (RCP2.6=3.758×10⁵ km², RCP4.5=1.725×10⁵ km², and RCP8.5=6.300×10³ km²), the moderately suitable areas will decrease in the RCP2.6 by 1.902×10⁵ km², while it will increase in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.7 (RCP4.5=2.617×10⁵ km², and RCP8.5=9.760×10⁴ km²). In the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the geometric center of the highly suitable areas and the total suitable areas will move to the northeast by the 2070s. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the geometric center of the highly suitable areas will move to the northeast, but the geometric center of the total suitable area will move to the southeast by the 2070s. The MaxEnt model was used to predict suitable cultivation areas for A. arguta in the present day and future climate scenarios. All of the 'area under the curve' (AUC) averages were higher than 0.98, indicating high reliability of the predicted model results.
Key words:Actinidia arguta/
Suitable area/
Response to climate change/
MaxEnt model/
Environmental factors/
China

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图1影响软枣猕猴桃地理分布的关键因子与物种存在概率关系图
Figure1.Relationship diagram of the probability of species' existence and key factors affecting the geographical distribution of Actinidia argute


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图23种气候变化情景下软枣猕猴桃MaxEnt模型的ROC曲线
Figure2.ROC curves of MaxEnt model of Actinidia argute under three climate change scenarios


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图3当前情景下软枣猕猴桃在中国潜在适生区分布图
Figure3.Potentially suitable distribution areas of Actinidia arguta in China under the current scenarios


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图4未来情景下软枣猕猴桃在中国潜在适生区分布图
A: 2050s RCP2.6; B: 2070s RCP2.6; C: 2050s RCP4.5; D: 2070s RCP4.5; E: 2050s RCP8.5; F: 2070s RCP8.5.
Figure4.Potentially suitable distribution of Actinidia arguta in China under the future scenarios


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片


图5未来情景下软枣猕猴桃适生区质心迁移轨迹(A:高适生区; B:总适生区)
Figure5.Shift distance of the distribution center of Actinidia arguta under the future scenarios (A: highly suitable area; B: total suitable area)


下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表1影响软枣猕猴桃地理分布的关键环境因子的皮尔逊相关系数
Table1.Pearson's correlation coefficients of dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Actinidia argute

环境因子 Environmental factor	7月降水量 Precipitation in July (Prec7)	4月均温 Average temperature in April (Tmean4)	温度季节性变化标准差 Temperature seasonality (Bio4)	3月均温 Average temperature in March (Tmean3)	最暖季降水 Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18)
4月均温 Average temperature in April (Tmean4)	-0.119**
温度季节性变化标准差 Temperature seasonality (seasonal temperature standard deviation×100) (Bio4)	-0.209**	0.084**
3月均温 Average temperature in March (Tmean3)	-0.054**	0.427**	-0.243**
最暖季降水 Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18)	0.071**	-0.038**	0.053**	-0.069**
海拔 Altitude (Alt)	0.155**	-0.128**	-0.458**	0.064**	0.014**

下载: 导出CSV
表2影响软枣猕猴桃潜在地理分布的关键因子适宜范围
Table2.Suitable ranges of dominant environmental factors affecting the potentially geographical distribution of Actinidia argute

环境因子及描述 Environmental factor and description		单位 Unit	适宜范围 Suitable range	最适值 Optimum value
Prec7	7月降水量?Precipitation in July	mm	142.3~408.2	213.4
Bio4	温度季节性变化标准差 Temperature seasonality (seasonal temperature standard deviation×100)	℃	54.5~123.9	84.4
Bio18	最暖季降水?Precipitation of the warmest quarter	mm	392.2~1126	662.3
Tmean3	3月均温?Average temperature in March	℃	-2.1~16.1	7.3
Tmean4	4月均温?Average temperature in April	℃	6.5~19.1	15.3
Alt	海拔?Altitude	m	140.8~3 929.6	845.1

下载: 导出CSV
表3当前情形下软枣猕猴桃主要适生省份及面积
Table3.Main suitable provinces and area of Actinidia arguta under the current scenario ?×10⁴ km²

区域 Region	省份 Province	面积?Area
		低适生区 Slightly suitable	中适生区 Moderately Suitable	高适生区 Highly suitable
西南 Southwest China	四川?Sichuan	4.57	20.82	14.62
	贵州?Guizhou	0.02	4.71	11.23
	重庆?Chongqing	0.01	2.64	6.22
	陕西?Shaanxi	8.66	4.84	5.09
	西藏?Tibet	12.15	5.43	1.38
东北 Northeast China	辽宁?Liaoning	0.74	8.38	6.54
	吉林?Jilin	6.21	8.88	5.97
	黑龙江?Heilongjiang	31.94	11.97	0.14
华北 North China	河北?Hebei	6.99	7.80	4.85
	山西?Shanxi	3.36	7.86	4.73
华东 East China	安徽?Anhui	4.15	6.92	2.29
	山东?Shandong	4.57	7.09	3.73
	浙江?Zhejiang	2.98	3.07	3.30
	福建?Fujian	2.50	6.45	1.84
	江苏?Jiangsu	6.10	3.54	0.05
华中 Central China	湖北?Hubei	3.79	6.87	6.90
	河南?Henan	1.55	11.93	2.65
	湖南?Hunan	4.44	8.11	6.71

下载: 导出CSV
表4未来情景下软枣猕猴桃适生面积
Table4.Potentially suitable areas of Actinidia arguta under the future scenarios?×10⁴ km²

年代 Decade	气候情景 Climate scenario	低适生区 Slightly suitable area	中适生区 Moderately suitable area	高适生区 Highly suitable area
当前 Current (1950-2000)	—	215.88	178.59	92.87
21世纪50年代 2050s	RCP2.6	197.86	170.01	105.63
	RCP4.5	178.43	186.24	124.77
	RCP8.5	197.17	168.95	119.26
21世纪70年代 2070s	RCP2.6	217.16	121.99	130.45
	RCP4.5	192.37	187.51	110.12
	RCP8.5	180.59	187.72	93.50

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