金欣鹏^{1, 2,},
马林^1,,,
张建杰³,
马文奇³,
张福锁⁴
1.中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心/河北省土壤生态学重点实验室/中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室 石家庄 050022
2.中国科学院大学 北京 100049
3.河北农业大学资源与环境科学学院 保定 071001
4.中国农业大学国家绿色农业发展研究院 北京 100193
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目31972517
中国工程院咨询研究项目2019-XZ-25

详细信息

作者简介:金欣鹏, 研究方向为农业生态学。E-mail:jinxinpeng19@mails.ucas.ac.cn

通讯作者:马林, 研究方向为农业生态学。E-mail:malin1979@sjziam.ac.cn

中图分类号:S19;S158.5

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-04-01
录用日期:2020-06-10
刊出日期:2020-08-01

Systematic research and quantitative approach for assessing agricultural green development

JIN Xinpeng^{1, 2,},
MA Lin^1,,,
ZHANG Jianjie³,
MA Wenqi³,
ZHANG Fusuo⁴
1. Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050022, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
4. National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China31972517
the Consulting Research Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering2019-XZ-25

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Corresponding author:E-mail: malin1979@sjziam.ac.cn

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摘要
摘要:农业绿色发展研究是融合多学科知识，以食物系统为研究对象，重点剖析系统内不同单元间关联和互馈关系，进而阐明粮食安全、国民健康、资源节约、环境保护等目标的协调机制，探索全产业链技术途径，并致力于协同实现农业“绿色”和“发展”的科学。传统研究方法往往忽视对农业绿色发展的系统思考和定量分析，无法统筹农业绿色发展的各环节和协调多类目标的实现。在本研究中，我们首先基于系统研究的思路，明确了“土壤-作物生产-畜牧业生产-食品加工-家庭消费—环境”整个食物系统是农业绿色发展系统研究边界；其次，结合农业绿色发展全链条和多尺度特性，提出并论述了“自上而下”和“自下而上”的定量研究思路；随后，以上述两方面研究思考为基础，构建了由1个核心模型[食物系统养分流动模型（NUFER）]、3个定量分析模块（水、大气和土地利用分析模块）和1个指标关联模块[耦合驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应概念框架（DPSIR）、可持续发展指标体系（SDGs）和星球边界理论框架（PBs）]组成的农业绿色发展系统分析耦合模型（NUFER-AGD）；最后，梳理了农业绿色发展定量研究的案例。案例研究通过多指标关联分析和指标评价，协同国家农业绿色发展的总体目标；在流域尺度以绿色环境与资源阈值为约束，定量设计农业绿色发展系统解决方案；系统分析全产业链农业绿色发展的技术实现路径。该研究不仅能为农业绿色发展理论和应用研究提供系统思路和定量方法，还可为国家农业绿色发展战略提供科学支撑。
关键词:农业绿色发展/
食物系统/
系统研究/
NUFER模型/
多指标关联分析
Abstract:Research on agricultural green development (AGD) is a scientific direction of integrating multi-disciplinary knowledge. It takes the food system as the research boundary, and focuses on analyzing the relationship between different sectors in the food system to achieve the targets of food security, human health, resource conservation and environmental protection. It also devotes attention to the coordination of "green" and "development" in agriculture production system. Previous methods often neglect systematically thinking and quantitatively analyzing of the AGD, and cannot coordinate multiple objectives of AGD. In this study, we firstly defined the research boundary of AGD, which considered "soil-crop production-animal production-food processing-household consumption-environmental impacts" systems; secondly, we developed the quantitative research approaches of "top-down" and "bottom-up", combining the whole food chain and multi-scale characters in AGD studies; thirdly, we developed the new modelling system for AGD (NUFER-AGD), including a core model (the food system nutrient flow model, NUFER), three quantitative analysis modules (water, atmosphere and land use modules) and one index module (linked to Driving force-Pressure-States-Impacts-Response, DPSIR; Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs; and Planet Boundaries, PBs); and last, we reviewed several case studies of quantitative research on AGD. Here, case studies were conducted by following 3 steps: (1) coordinating the overall goals AGDs at national level by nexus analysis approach and multiple indicators evaluation; (2) designing AGDs solutions quantitively by using green environment and resource limits as thresholds at the watershed scale; (3) analyzing the technical pathways of AGD systemically in the whole industrial chain. This research can not only provide systematic thinking and quantitative methods for the research of AGD, but also provide scientific support for the national strategy of AGD in China.
Key words:Agricultural green development/
Food system/
Systematic research/
NUFER model/
Nexus analysis of multiple indicators

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图1农业绿色发展研究边界与系统研究思路
Figure1.Research boundary and systematical thinking of agricultural green development
AGD: agricultural green development; SDGs: sustainable development goals.


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图2农业绿色发展系统分析耦合模型系统(NUFER-AGD)
图中各模块的详细介绍见后文及其参考文献[3, 9-15]。
Figure2.Framework of modeling system for analyzing agricultural green development (NUFER-AGD)
The more details of modules in this figure are included in the text and the references [3, 9-15].


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图3农业绿色发展系统分析耦合模型与系统研究思路
图中3个支柱为生产资源、生态环境、社会经济, 4个界面为资源与生产之间、生产与消费之间、生产环节之间、生产消费与环境之间的界面, 5个利益主体为政府、农民、企业、经销商、消费者, 6个目标为社会、经济、生产、资源、生态、环境, 7个途径为政策、市场、服务、技术、产品、知识、工程; 10个过程为1)作物生产与资源的交换、2)畜牧生产的资源输入和粪尿的资源化利用、3)作物产品直接用作饲料、4)作物产品与食物和饲料加工的交换、5)动物产品与加工的交换、6)作物生产与家庭消费的交换、7)食品加工与家庭消费的交换、8)动物生产与家庭消费的交换、9)农产品加工和食物损失浪费和10)食物系统环境排放, 这些为马文奇等^[5]提出的农业绿色发展的内涵。图中“自下而上”和“自上而下”的系统分析与定量研究步骤为: A, 时空数据分析与对标; B, 流域、县域指标和阈值; C, 多目标优化和迭代; D, 情景分析和反推分析; E, 生产技术和典型模式; F, 农业、生态和环境等政策; G, 县域流域指标验证; H, 凝练科技战略、创新重点。
Figure3.NUFER-AGD model and systematical research approach
The connotations of agriculture green development shown in the middle of the figure are raised by Ma, et al^[5]. Three pillars are resource for production, ecological environment, socio-economic; Four interfaces are the interface between resource input and production, the interface between production and consumption, the interface between different production sectors, the interface between production-consumption and environment. Five stakeholders are government, farmers, companies, dealers, consumers. Six targets are social targets, economic targets, production targets, targets of resources utilization, ecological targets and environmental targets. Seven approaches are policy approaches, market approaches, service approaches, technical approaches, product approaches, knowledge approaches and engineer approaches. Ten processes are: 1) resource input and crop production; 2) feed input, livestock production and manure utilization; 3) crop product used as feed directly; 4) crop product processed for food or feed; 5) livestock product process; 6) crop production and human consumption; 7) food process and human consumption; 8) livestock production and human consumption; 9) product process, food loss and food waste; 10) environmental emission from food system. The steps of systematic analysis and quantitative research of "top-down" and "bottom-up" in the figure are A: analyze and compare spatial-temporal data; B: build index system at basin and county scale and define their thresholds; C: multi-objective optimization algorithm; D: scenario analysis and backcasting method; E: develop technologies of production and explore typical patterns; F: agricultural, ecological and environmental policies; G: verify model results and observed value; H: develop key technological strategies and innovation fields.


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表1不同尺度食物系统养分流动研究重点及其意义
Table1.Key research areas and significances of nutrient flows in food system at different scales

研究尺度 Study scale	主要研究对象 Main study object	模型主要功能 Main functions of the model	重要应用领域 Key application fields
全球/国家尺度 Global or country scale	整个食物系统 Whole food system	分析不同国家养分流动历史变化特征及影响因素, 阐明农牧生产技术改进、区域环境政策调控、膳食结构优化和全球贸易增加对食物系统的影响 Analyze historical changes and influencing factors of the nutrient flows in different countries, and illustrate the impacts of improvement of crop-livestock production technologies, diet structure and global trade on food system	为国家农业绿色发展重大战略提供科学支撑 Provide scientific support for national agricultural green development
区域/流域尺度 Regional or basin scale	种养生产与环境系统的关系 Interaction between crop- livestock production and environmental system	分析不同流域养分环境排放特征, 识别热点环境排放区和生态脆弱区 Analyze nutrient emission characters in different basins, identify emission hotspots and ecologically vulnerable areas	为区域环境管理政策的制定提供科学依据 Provide scientific basis for reginal environmental management policies making
农户/农场尺度 Household or farm scale	种养生产系统 Crop-livestock system	分析不同类型和管理模式的农田、畜禽养殖和农户(农场)的养分利用效率和环境排放特征及其影响因素 Analyze nutrient use efficiency, emission characters and influencing factors in households or farms production system, whose types or management patterns are different.	为优化农户养分管理行为提供科学依据 Provide scientific basis for farms or households to improve nutrient management

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