庞艳梅1,,,
徐富贤3,
郭晓艺3
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
2.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
3.四川省农业科学院水稻高粱研究所 德阳 618000
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划重点专项2017YFD0300400
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目BROP201817
详细信息
作者简介:陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究。E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com
通讯作者:庞艳梅, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响评估研究。E-mail:pangyanm@126.com
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出版历程
收稿日期:2019-10-15
录用日期:2020-01-03
刊出日期:2020-04-01
Dry-wet evolution and its influencing factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China
CHEN Chao1, 2,,PANG Yanmei1,,,
XU Fuxian3,
GUO Xiaoyi3
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China
3. Institute of Rice and Sorghum, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Deyang 618000, China
Funds: the Key Special Project of National Key Research and Development Program of China2017YFD0300400
the Science and Technology Development Foundation of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceKey Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological AdministrationBROP201817
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Corresponding author:PANG Yanmei, E-mail:pangyanm@126.com
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摘要
摘要:结合作物生产开展区域干湿演变及其影响因素研究，对农业可持续发展和粮食安全具有重要的科学意义。本文基于西南水稻种植区316个气象站点1961—2015年的观测资料，利用降水量与参考作物蒸散量（ET0）的比值计算湿润指数，分析近55年西南区域单季稻生长季干湿演变特征；探讨ET0对主要气候要素的敏感性及主要气候要素对ET0的贡献率，对西南区域单季稻生长季干湿演变的影响因素展开研究。结果表明：西南区域单季稻生长季的半湿润区主要分布在四川攀西地区南部、云南中部和东北部，其余地区属湿润区。与1961—1990年相比，1991—2015年研究区域内的半湿润区面积增加、湿润区面积减小。近55年来，单季稻生长季内西南区域有40.8%的站点气候变湿，其余地区气候变干。四川盆地东北部、云南东北部由于降水量的增加和ET0的减少，气候变湿；四川攀西地区由于降水量增加对湿润指数的正效应大于ET0增加对湿润指数的负效应，气候变湿；重庆南部、贵州北部和西部由于降水量减少对湿润指数的负效应小于ET0减少对湿润指数的正效应，气候变湿；云南大部由于降水量的减少和ET0的增加，气候变干；西南其他区域由于降水量减少对湿润指数的负效应大于ET0减少对湿润指数的正效应，气候变干。西南区域单季稻生长季ET0随平均气温和相对湿度的增加而减小，而随日照时数和风速的增加而增加，日照时数和风速的显著下降是ET0减小的主要原因。研究为气候变化背景下降低西南区域单季稻生长季可能的气候风险提供了科学依据。
关键词:西南区域/
单季稻/
湿润指数/
干湿演变/
降水量/
参考作物蒸散量/
气候要素
Abstract:Research on regional dry-wet evolution and its influencing factors during the crop growing season is critical for sustainable agricultural development and food security. In this study, which is based on the daily meteorological data from 316 meteorological stations in the rice-growing area of Southwest China from 1961 to 2015, and on calculation of the ratio of precipitation to reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in a single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China, the characteristics of dry-wet evolution from 1961 to 2015 were analyzed. The sensitivity of ET0 to the main climatic factors and attribution rates to ET0 of the main climatic factors were studied, and the factors influencing dry-wet evolution were also discussed. The results showed that the semi-humid climatic regions with a single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China were mainly distributed in the south of Panxi area of Sichuan and the center and northeast of Yunnan, but that the rest of Southwest China comprised humid climatic regions. Compared with 1961-1990, the area of the semi-humid climatic region in Southwest China increased during 1991-2015, while the area of the humid climatic region decreased. During the single cropping rice growing season, 40.8% of the sites in Southwest China became wet from 1961 to 2015, and the rest of the region became dry. The climate became wet in the northeast of Sichuan basin and the northeast of Yunnan because of increasing precipitation and decreasing ET0. The positive effect caused by the increasing precipitation on the humidity index exceeded the negative effect caused by the increasing ET0, which resulted in the climate becoming wet in the Panxi area of Sichuan. The positive effect caused by the decreasing ET0 on the humidity index exceeded the negative effect caused by the decreasing precipitation, which resulted in the climate becoming wet in the south of Chongqing, and in the north and west of Guizhou Province. In contrast, most of Yunnan showed a dry trend with decreasing precipitation and increasing ET0. The climate became drier in other areas of Southwest China because the negative effect caused by the decreasing precipitation on the humidity index exceeded the positive effect of the decreasing ET0. During the single cropping rice growing season, the ET0 decreased with increasing average temperature and relative humidity in Southwest China, but the ET0 increased with increasing sunshine hours and wind speed. The significant decline in sunshine hours and wind speed in Southwest China was the main reason for the decrease in ET0. The study provided a scientific basis for reduction of the possible climate risks of the single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China under global climate change.
Key words:Southwest China/
Single cropping rice/
Humid index/
Dry-wet evolution/
Precipitation/
Reference crop evapotranspiration/
Climate factor
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图1研究区域气象站点分布
Figure1.Distribution of meteorological stations in the study region
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21961—2015年不同时间段西南区域单季稻生长季湿润指数的空间分布
Figure2.Spatial distribution of humid index in single cropping rice growing season at different time periods from 1961 to 2015 in Southwest China
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季湿润指数变化曲线图
Figure3.Curve of change in humid index of single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季湿润指数(a)、降水量(b)与参考作物蒸散量(c)气候倾向率的空间分布
Figure4.Spatial distribution of the climatic trend rates of humid index (a), precipitation (b) and ET0 (c) in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季参考作物蒸散量对主要气候要素敏感系数的空间分布
Figure5.Spatial distribution of the mean annual sensitivity coefficients of ET0 to the main climatic factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季主要气候要素对参考作物蒸散量贡献率(%)的空间分布
Figure6.Spatial distribution of contribution rates (%) to ET0 of the main climatic factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1西南稻区单季稻区域划分及其生长期
Table1.Division of zones of single cropping rice and their growing seasons in Southwest China
| 区域编号 Zone No. | 区域 Zone | 播种至成熟(月-日) From sowing to maturity (month-day) |
| Ⅰ | 重庆的中部、东北部和西部 Central, northeast and west of Chongqing | 03-01—08-30 |
| Ⅱ | 四川盆地东北部万源、达州一带及贵州北部 Areas around Wanyuan and Dazhou in the northeastern Sichuan Basin, northern Guizhou | 03-01—08-30 |
| Ⅲ | 贵州大部、四川盆地西部阆中遂宁一带 Most of Guizhou, areas around Langzhong and Suining in the western Sichuan Basin | 04-01—09-30 |
| Ⅳ | 四川盆地边缘、云南西北部 Edge of the Sichuan Basin and northwestern Yunnan | 03-01—08-20 |
| Ⅴ | 云南中部和东北部、四川南部、贵州省西部边缘 Central and northeast Yunnan, southern Sichuan and western edge of Guizhou | 03-11—09-20 |
| Ⅵ | 云南南部、西南部和东南部 South, southwest and southeast Yunnan | 02-21—08-20 |
下载: 导出CSV表2干湿气候的划分标准
Table2.Standard for the division of dry and wet climate zones
| 气候区Climate zone | 划分标准Standard |
| 极端干旱区Extreme drought area | M < 0.03 |
| 干旱区Drought area | 0.03≤M < 0.2 |
| 半干旱区Semi-arid area | 0.2≤M < 0.5 |
| 半湿润区Semi-wet area | 0.5≤M < 1.0 |
| 湿润区Wet area | M≥1.0 |
| M是湿润指数。M is the humid index. | |
下载: 导出CSV表31961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季湿润指数、降水量与参考作物蒸散量(ET0)的变化
Table3.Variation of humid index, precipitation and ET0 in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
| 区域Region | 气候倾向率Climatic trend rate | ||
| 湿润指数 Humid index [·(10a)-1] | 降水量 Precipitation [mm·(10a)-1] | ET0 [mm·(10a)-1] | |
| 西南区域Southwest China area | — | -7.6 | -2.6 |
| 重庆市Chongqing City | 0.01 | -2.0 | -6.8* |
| 四川省Sichuan Province | — | -3.0 | -2.3 |
| 云南省Yunnan Province | -0.02 | -10.8 | 0.2 |
| 贵州省Guizhou Province | — | -10.1 | -5.3 |
| *表示气候倾向率在95%的置信水平上显著。* denotes the significant trend at 95% confidence level. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表41961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季参考作物蒸散量对主要气候要素敏感系数的平均值
Table4.Averages of the mean annual sensitivity coefficients of ET0 to the main climatic factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
| 区域 Region | 敏感系数Sensitivity coefficient | |||
| 平均气温 Average temperature | 相对湿度 Relative humidity | 日照时数 Sunshine hours | 风速 Wind speed | |
| 西南区域Southwest China area | -0.038 | -0.368 | 0.290 | 0.075 |
| 重庆市Chongqing City | -0.040 | -0.290 | 0.305 | 0.066 |
| 四川省Sichuan Province | -0.038 | -0.347 | 0.283 | 0.083 |
| 云南省Yunnan Province | -0.035 | -0.369 | 0.292 | 0.088 |
| 贵州省Guizhou Province | -0.040 | -0.420 | 0.289 | 0.052 |
下载: 导出CSV表51961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季主要气候要素对参考作物蒸散量贡献率的平均值
Table5.Average of contribution rates to ET0 of the main climatic factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
| 区域Region | 贡献率Contribution rate (%) | |||
| 平均气温 Average temperature | 相对湿度 Relative humidity | 日照时数 Sunshine hours | 风速 Wind speed | |
| 西南区域Southwest China area | -0.124 | 1.350 | -3.142 | -1.727 |
| 重庆市Chongqing City | -0.035 | 0.647 | -5.923 | -1.427 |
| 四川省Sichuan Province | -0.129 | 1.383 | -2.929 | -1.902 |
| 云南省Yunnan Province | -0.182 | 1.690 | -0.820 | -2.377 |
| 贵州省Guizhou Province | -0.068 | 1.094 | -5.697 | -0.694 |
下载: 导出CSV表61961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季主要气候要素的变化
Table6.Variations of the main climatic factors in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
| 区域Region | 气候倾向率Climatic trend rate | |||
| 平均气温 Average temperature [℃·(10a)-1] | 相对湿度 Relative humidity [%·(10a)-1] | 日照时数 Sunshine hours [h·(10a)-1] | 风速 Wind speed [m·s-1·(10a)-1] | |
| 西南区域Southwest China area | 0.12** | -0.51** | -17.0** | -0.07** |
| 重庆市Chongqing | 0.04 | -0.32 | -29.2** | -0.05** |
| 四川省Sichuan | 0.11* | -0.55** | -16.5* | -0.08** |
| 云南省Yunnan | 0.18** | -0.63** | -6.1 | -0.10** |
| 贵州省Guizhou | 0.06 | -0.39* | -28.7** | -0.05** |
| *和**分别表示气候倾向率在95%和99%的置信水平显著。* and ** denote significant trends at 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively. | ||||
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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