陈怀亮^{1, 2},
李树岩^{1, 3,,}
1.中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室 郑州 450003
2.河南省气象局 郑州 450003
3.河南省气象科学研究所 郑州 450003
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划课题2018YFD0300704
国家重点研发计划课题2017YFD0300304
中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201408

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作者简介:陈怀亮：及其

通讯作者:李树岩, 主要从事农业气象灾害评估及作物模型应用研究。E-mail:lsy_126com@126.com

中图分类号:S162

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收稿日期:2019-10-12
录用日期:2019-12-13
刊出日期:2020-03-01

Prediction of high temperature disaster risks during summer maize flowering under future climate warming background in Henan Province

CHEN Huailiang^{1, 2},
LI Shuyan^{1, 3,,}
1. China Meteorological Administration/Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China
2. Henan Meteorological Service, Zhengzhou 450003, China
3. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China
Funds: the National Key R & D Projects of China2018YFD0300704
the National Key R & D Projects of China2017YFD0300304
the Climate Change Special Foundation of China Meteorological AdministrationCCSF201408

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Corresponding author:LI Shuyan: lsy_126com@126.com

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摘要
摘要:为预估未来气候变暖背景下夏玉米花期高温灾害风险，根据河南省19个农业气象观测站夏玉米抽雄期常年观测资料和未来RCPs（representative concentration pathways）气候变化情景数据，构建夏玉米花期高温风险评价指标，开展河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害时空特征及风险演变分析。其中RCPs气候情景数据包括基准气候条件（1951-2005年，RCP-rf）和未来（2006-2050年）RCP 4.5（中）、RCP 8.5（高）两种浓度路径数据。以抽雄普遍期及之后7 d确定为夏玉米花期，并内插匹配气候情景格点数据。以花期最高气温≥ 32℃和≥ 35℃作为轻度和重度高温灾害发生阈值，根据轻、重度夏玉米花期高温发生频率和高温积害，建立风险评价指标并分级。结果表明，RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温发生频率在20.5%~81.0%（≥ 32℃）和3.9%~51.9%（≥ 35℃）。与基准条件相比，≥ 32℃高温发生频率增加9.1%（RCP 4.5）和11.0%（RCP 8.5），≥ 35℃高温发生频率增加8.7%（RCP 4.5）和8.3%（RCP 8.5）。RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温积害在48.5~200.9℃·d（≥ 32℃）和9.8~138.5℃·d（≥ 35℃）。与基准条件相比，≥ 32℃高温积害增加25.4℃·d（RCP 4.5）和25.6℃·d（RCP 8.5），≥ 35℃高温积害增加25.8℃·d（RCP 4.5）和31.4℃·d（RCP 8.5）。由综合风险分析可知，RCP-rf情景下夏玉米花期高温灾害高值风险区主要分布在新乡、郑州、许昌、漯河、周口及其以东以北的地区（商丘除外），约占夏玉米主栽区面积的30.1%；RCP 4.5情景下高值风险区扩大至洛阳和南阳以东的大部分地区，约占夏玉米主栽区面积的63.4%；RCP 8.5情景下高值风险区面积进一步向西扩大，约占夏玉米主栽区面积的占76.3%。
关键词:RCP气候情景/
气候变化/
夏玉米/
花期/
高温风险/
河南省
Abstract:To predict the risk of high temperature disasters during the summer maize flowering period under future climate change scenarios, a high temperature risk index was established based on the long-term observational data of the summer maize booting period from 19 agro-meteorological observational stations in Henan Province and future climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs). Based on the high temperature risk index, the spatio-temporal characteristics and risk of high temperature disasters during the summer maize flowering period were analyzed in Henan Province. The climate change scenarios (RCPs) included the baseline climate scenario (RCP-rf, 1951-2005) and two future climate change scenarios with moderate emission (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) during 2006-2050. The summer maize flowering period at each site was defined as the period from the booting stage to 7 days after booting, and then, it was interpolated into the whole province to match the gridded date of climate scenarios. The maximum temperature of higher than 32℃ and 35℃ during flowering were used as the threshold for occurrence of light and heavy high temperature disasters. A comprehensive risk index was successfully established, and the risk level was divided by integrating high temperature frequency and accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ and 35℃ during the summer maize flowering period. The results showed that under the RCP-rf scenario, the high temperature frequency during the summer maize flowering period was 20.5%-81.0% (≥ 32℃) and 3.9%-51.9% (≥ 35℃). Compared with the baseline, the frequency of high temperature days of more than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period increased by 9.1% (RCP 4.5) and 11.0% (RCP 8.5), and that of higher than 35℃ increased by 8.7% (RCP 4.5) and 8.3% (RCP 8.5). Under the RCP-rf scenario, the accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period ranged 48.5-200.9℃·d, and that of higher than 35℃ ranged 9.8-138.5℃·d. Compared with the baseline, the accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ during the summer maize flowering period increased by 25.4℃·d (RCP 4.5) and 25.6℃·d (RCP 8.5); and that of higher than 35℃ increased by 25.8℃·d (RCP 4.5) and 31.4℃·d (RCP 8.5). According to the comprehensive risk analysis of high temperature during the summer maize flowering period, the high-risk zones under RCP-rf scenario were distributed in the eastern and northern areas, which adjacent to Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, Xuchang, Luohe, and Zhoukou, except Shangqiu, accounting for approximately 30.1% of the main summer maize planting area. The high-risk areas covered most of the areas in the east of Luoyang and Nanyang, accounting for 63.4% of the main area of summer maize planting under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 76.3% of the main area of summer maize planting under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Key words:RCP scenarios/
Climate change/
Summer maize/
Flowing period/
High temperature risk/
Henan Province

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图1河南省RCP情景数据示意图
Figure1.Sketch map of climate data in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图2河南省夏玉米主产区和农业气象站分布示意图
阴影部分为信阳地区, 以种植水稻为主, 不作为研究区域。The shaded area is Xinyang City where rice is the main crop, so is not included in the study area.
Figure2.Map of summer maize production area and distribution of agro-meteorological stations in Henan Province


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图3河南省夏玉米抽雄期日序常年值
信阳地区以种植水稻为主, 不作为研究区域。Xinyang City is not included in the study area because where rice is the main crop.
Figure3.Average Julian day series of booting of summer maize in Henan Province


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图4RCP情景下河南省夏玉米花期≥32 ℃和≥35 ℃的高温日数
Figure4.Changes of days of temperature higher than 32 ℃ and 35 ℃ during summer maize flowering in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图5RCP情景河南省夏玉米花期≥32 ℃和≥35 ℃的高温日数及发生频率空间分布
信阳地区以种植水稻为主, 不作为研究区域。Xinyang City is not included in the study area because where rice is the main crop.
Figure5.Spatial distribution of days and occurrence frequency of temperature higher than 32 ℃ and 35 ℃ during summer maize flowering stage in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图6RCP情景河南省夏玉米花期≥32 ℃和≥35 ℃的高温积害变化
Figure6.Change of accumulation of temperature higher than 32 ℃ and 35 ℃ during summer maize flowering in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图7RCP情景河南省夏玉米花期≥32 ℃和≥35 ℃的高温积害空间分布
信阳地区以种植水稻为主, 不作为研究区域。Xinyang City is not included in the study area because where rice is the main crop.
Figure7.Spatial distribution of accumulation of temperature higher than 32 ℃ and 35 ℃ during summer maize flowering in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图8RCP情景河南省夏玉米花期高温综合风险分布
信阳地区以种植水稻为主, 不作为研究区域。Xinyang City is not included in the study area because where rice is the main crop.
Figure8.Distribution of high temperature comprehensive risk during summer maize flowering in Henan Province under RCP scenarios


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图9RCP情景下花期调整对夏玉米躲避高温风险的效果
Figure9.Effect of adjusting flowering date on avoiding high temperature risk under RCP scenarios


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