刘晓静,,
刘家福,
陈鹏
吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院 四平 136000
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41501559
国家自然科学基金项目41977411
吉林师范大学研究生科研创新计划项目201945
详细信息
作者简介:任宗悦, 研究方向为自然灾害监测、风险评估与管理。E-mail:Zorinrzy@163.com
通讯作者:刘晓静, 主要从事自然灾害风险评价与管理方面的工作。E-mail:liuxj@jlnu.edu.cn
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出版历程
收稿日期:2019-09-20
录用日期:2019-11-13
刊出日期:2020-02-01
Evolution of drought and flood trend in the growth period of spring maize in Northeast China in the past 60 years
REN Zongyue,LIU Xiaojing,,
LIU Jiafu,
CHEN Peng
College of Tourism and Geographic Science, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China41501559
the National Natural Science Foundation of China41977411
the Graduate Innovation Foundation of Jilin Normal University201945
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Corresponding author:LIU Xiaojing, E-mail:liuxj@jlnu.edu.cn
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摘要
摘要:区域作物旱涝趋势的演变是区域应对气候变化、制定防灾减灾决策的理论依据，是保证我国粮食安全的基础。本文以东北地区为研究区，依据春玉米的生长特征将其划分为14个分区，利用研究区1958-2017年78个站点的逐日气象数据，计算春玉米生育期内的累积水分盈亏指数（CWSDI'），并将其划分为8个旱涝等级，结合M-K趋势检验和突变检验法及GIS空间分析技术，揭示了东北地区春玉米生长期旱涝趋势的时空演变规律。结果表明：在春玉米生育期内，播种-抽穗期的3个生育阶段，CWSDI'值大体呈上升趋势，抽穗-成熟期CWSDI'值呈下降趋势，其中乳熟-成熟阶段的下降趋势最重，但无明显区域性。研究区内春玉米干旱的发生频率远高于洪涝的发生频率，干旱自20世纪90年代逐渐加重，洪涝情况无明显变化趋势；拔节-抽穗阶段和乳熟-成熟阶段分别是旱涝灾害最轻和最重的阶段，春玉米各生育阶段各旱涝等级的发生频率大体上是特旱>轻旱>其余旱涝等级；吉林省西部和辽宁省西部的中旱及重旱频率高于其他地区，特旱主要集中在研究区西部，轻涝集中在黑龙江省中、南部，吉林省东部和辽宁省东部，研究区内几乎不发生中、重涝。应在春玉米的生育初期和后期注意旱涝灾害的预防，研究区西部的旱情较重应重点防范，做到适时有效灌溉。研究结果可为区域预测农业旱涝灾害、优化水资源配置提供决策依据。
关键词:东北地区/
春玉米/
水分盈亏指数/
旱涝频率/
时空变化/
M-K趋势检验
Abstract:The evolution of regional drought and flood trend provides a theoretical basis for understanding crop response to climate change, decision making on disaster prevention and reduction, and ensuring China's food security. Here, the northeast region of China was used as the research area, which was divided into 14 parts based on the growth characteristics of spring maize. The daily meteorological data from 78 stations in the study area from 1958 to 2017 were used to calculate the crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI') of spring maize during the growing period. The CWSDI' values were divided into eight drought and flood levels. The results revealed the temporal and spatial trend of drought and flood during the growth period of spring maize in the northeast region using Mann-Kendall trend test, mutation test, and geographic information system spatial analysis technology. During the growth period of spring maize, CWSDI' generally increased in the three growth stages of sowing-heading period and decreased in the heading-maturation stage, and the decreasing trend was the most significant in the milk-maturation stage, but without any obvious regional difference. The frequency of drought in the growth period of spring maize in the research area was considerably higher than that of flood. The drought situation had gradually worsened since the 1990s, but the flood situation showed no obvious change. The jointing-heading and milk-maturation stages were the least and most affected stages by drought and flood, respectively. The frequency of drought and flood in each growth stage of spring maize was as follows:extreme drought > light drought > other drought and flood levels. The frequency of moderate drought and heavy drought in the western part of Liaoning was higher than that in other areas. Extreme drought mostly occurred in the western part of the study site, whereas light flood mostly occurred in Heilongjiang. Moderate flood and heavy flood rarely occurred in the study site. In the future, efforts should be made to prevent drought and flood in the early and late growth stages of spring maize. Furthermore, more attention should be paid to the western part of the study site owing to the more severe drought situation in order to achieve timely and effective irrigation. The results will provide a basis for the prediction of agricultural drought and flood disasters and optimization of water resource allocation on a regional scale.
Key words:Northeast China/
Spring maize/
Crop water surplus deficit index/
Drought and flood frequency/
Spatio-temporal Change/
M-K trend test
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图1研究区分区情况及气象站点分布示意图
Figure1.Regionalization of the study area and distribution of meteorological stations in the study area
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21958—2017年东北地区春玉米各生育阶段内累积水分盈亏指数(CWSDI')变化趋势
Figure2.Trends of crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI') in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China from1958 to 2017
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31958—2017年东北地区春玉米各生育阶段内累积水分盈亏指数(达到干旱及洪涝标准地区)变化趋势
Figure3.Trends of crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI') in areas reaching drought and flood standard in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China from 1958 to 2017
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41958—2017年东北地区春玉米各生育阶段内累积水分盈亏指数变化趋势空间分布图
Figure4.Spatial distribution of the change trend of crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI') in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China from 1958 to 2017
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51958—2017年东北地区各年代春玉米不同生育阶段各旱涝程度的发生频率
Figure5.Frequency of different grades of drought and flood in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China in different decades from 1958 to 2017
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61958—2017年东北地区春玉米各生育阶段各旱涝程度发生频率的空间分布
Figure6.Spatial distribution of the frequency of drought and flood in different growth periods of spring maize from 1958 to 2017 in Northeast China
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1东北地区春玉米各生育阶段起止时间
Table1.Starting and ending time of each growth period of spring maize in Northeast China
| FAO建议的生育阶段 Growth period recommended by FAO | 生育阶段 Growth period | 起止时间 Starting and ending time |
| 初始生长期 Initial growth period | 播种—出苗 Sowing-emergence | 4月下旬至5月中旬 Late-April to mid-May |
| 发育期 Development period | 出苗—拔节 Emergence-jointing | 5月下旬至6月中旬 Late-May to mid-June |
| 拔节—抽穗 Jointing-heading | 6月下旬至7月中旬 Late-June to mid-July | |
| 生育中期 Mid-growth period | 抽穗—乳熟 Heading-milk | 7月下旬至8月中旬 Late-July to mid-August |
| 生育后期 Late-growth period | 乳熟—成熟 Milk-maturation | 8月下旬至9月下旬 Late-August to late-September |
下载: 导出CSV表2东北地区不同区域春玉米各月作物系数值
Table2.Monthly crop coefficients of spring maize in different regions of Northeast China
| 地区 Region | 4月 April | 5月 May | 6月 June | 7月 July | 8月 August | 9月 September |
| 黑龙江东部Eastern Heilongjiang | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.74 |
| 黑龙江南部Southern Heilongjiang | 0.30 | 0.48 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 0.80 |
| 黑龙江西部Western Heilongjiang | 0.30 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 0.65 |
| 黑龙江北部Northern Heilongjiang | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.77 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 0.74 |
| 黑龙江中部Central Heilongjiang | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 1.02 | 0.74 |
| 吉林西部Western Jilin | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.73 |
| 吉林中部Central Jilin | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| 吉林东部Eastern Jilin | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| 辽宁东部Eastern Liaoning | 0.47 | 0.68 | 0.92 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.84 |
| 辽宁南部Southern Liaoning | 0.46 | 0.70 | 0.92 | 1.21 | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| 辽宁西部Western Liaoning | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 1.12 | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| 辽宁北部Northern Liaoning | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 0.86 |
| 辽宁中部Central Liaoning | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.76 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| 内蒙古通辽市、赤峰市 Tongliao, Chifeng of Inner Mongolia | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 0.77 |
下载: 导出CSV表3基于累积水分盈亏指数的东北地区春玉米旱涝等级标准
Table3.Drought and flood grade indexes of maize in Northeast China based on crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI')
| 等级 Level | 各生育阶段水分盈亏指数CWSDI' at each growth period (%) | |||||
| 播种—出苗 Sowing-emergence | 出苗—拔节 Emergence-jointing | 拔节—抽穗 Jointing-heading | 抽穗—乳熟 Heading-milk | 乳熟—成熟 Milk-maturation | 全生育期 Growth period | |
| 正常Normal | (-45, 45] | (-50, 50] | (-35, 35] | (-35, 35] | (-50, 50] | (-40, 40] |
| 轻旱Light drought | (-60, -45] | (-65, -50] | (-50, -35] | (-45, -35] | (-60, -50] | (-60, -40] |
| 中旱Moderate drought | (-70, -60] | (-75, -65] | (-60, -50] | (-55, -45] | (-70, -60] | (-80, -60] |
| 重旱Heavy drought | (-80, -70] | (-85, -75] | (-70, -60] | (-65, -55] | (-80, -70] | (-90, -80] |
| 特旱Extreme drought | (-∞, -80] | (-∞, -85] | (-∞, -70] | (-∞, -65] | (-∞, -80] | (-∞, -90] |
| 轻涝Light flood | (45, 60] | (50, 65] | (35, 50] | (35, 45] | (50, 60] | (40, 60] |
| 中涝Moderate flood | (60, 70] | (65, 75] | (50, 60] | (45, 55] | (60, 70] | (60, 80] |
| 重涝Heavy flood | (70, 80] | (75, 85] | (60, 70] | (55, 65] | (70, 80] | (80, 90] |
| 特涝Extreme flood | (80, ∞) | (85, ∞) | (70, ∞) | (65, ∞) | (80, ∞) | (90, ∞) |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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