徐富贤3,
庞艳梅1,,,
李小兰4,
郭晓艺3
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室 成都 610072
2.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室 成都 610066
3.四川省农业科学院水稻高粱研究所 德阳 618000
4.四川省气候中心 成都 610072
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划重点专项2017YFD0300400
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目BROP201817
详细信息
作者简介:陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究。E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com
通讯作者:庞艳梅, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响评估研究。E-mail:pangyanm@126.com
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2018-08-14
录用日期:2019-02-15
刊出日期:2019-08-01
Prediction of threshold temperature start date for rice at critical development stages in Southwest China
CHEN Chao1, 2,,XU Fuxian3,
PANG Yanmei1,,,
LI Xiaolan4,
GUO Xiaoyi3
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China
3. Institute of Rice and Sorghum, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Deyang 618000, China
4. Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China
Funds: the National Key Research and Development Program of China2017YFD0300400
the Science and Technology Development Fund Project of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceKey Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-01
the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, ChengduBROP201817
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Corresponding author:PANG Yanmei, E-mail:pangyanm@126.com
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摘要
摘要:保证作物安全生产是种植制度的根本要求，也是作物稳产、高产的基础。本文基于西南水稻种植区317个气象台站1961-2015年的日平均气温和最高气温资料，分析了近55年来该区域不同保证率下水稻安全播种期、水稻开花期高温热害和低温冷害的最早发生期，并建立了西南区域水稻各关键生育期界限温度起始期预测模型。预测结果表明：80%~95%保证率下，云南南部的水稻育秧安全播种期最早，平均在2月20日左右；云南北部、四川攀西南部和盆地中部、重庆大部和贵州部分地区在3月10日-4月10日；而其余大部地区在4月10日-5月20日。80%~95%保证率下中稻开花期高温热害主要发生在四川盆地、重庆、贵州北部和东南部，大部地区最早出现在7月15日-8月20日。80%~95%保证率下再生稻或晚稻开花期低温冷害最早出现在云南和贵州大部、四川攀西地区，平均在6月20日-7月15日；四川盆地西部、贵州东北部平均为8月1-20日；其余大部地区在8月20日-9月20日。基于纬度、经度和海拔高度建立的西南区域水稻各关键生育期界限温度起始期预测模型，简单实用，可为西南水稻安全生产、防灾减灾等提供理论依据。
Abstract:Ensuring safe production is a fundamental requirement of the cropping system, being an important basis for stable and high yield of crops. Based on the daily average and maximum temperatures from 1961-2015 in 317 meteorological stations in the rice growing areas of southwestern China, the study analyzed safe sowing dates of rice under different guarantee rates (80%-95%) using the mean variance method. The earliest date of heat stress and chilling injury at rice flowering stage under different guarantee rates were analyzed too. A prediction model of the threshold temperature start date for rice at critical development stages in southwestern China was constructed using the stepwise regression method. At the 80%-95% guarantee rate, the earliest safe sowing date for rice was discovered in southern Yunnan, which was around February 20. The safe sowing dates in northern Yunnan, southwestern Sichuan, central Sichuan basin, most parts of Chongqing and parts of Guizhou were from March 10 to April 10. The safe sowing dates in the rest of southwestern China were from April 10 to May 20. At the 80%-95% guarantee rate, heat stress at flowering stage of middle-season rice occurred mainly in the Sichuan basin, Chongqing, northern and southeastern Guizhou, and the earliest occurrence dates were from July 15 to August 20. The earliest occurrence dates of chilling damage at ratooning or late rice flowering stage in most of Yunnan and Guizhou, and southwestern Sichuan were from June 20 to July 15. Meanwhile, the earliest occurrence dates of chilling damage in western Sichuan basin and northeastern Guizhou were from August 1 to August 20, and from August 20 to September 20 in the remaining areas. Based on the latitude, longitude and altitude, a model for predicting the threshold temperature initiation period for rice at critical development stages in southwestern China was established, which was simple and practical. In addition, using Hejiang of Sichuan and Meitan of Guizhou as the case study, the differences between the actual values and the simulated values of threshold temperature start date for rice were analyzed. The relative error between the actual values and the simulated values of threshold temperature start date for rice was less than 5.0%, which indicated that the model had a good simulation effect. In summary, the prediction of threshold temperature start date for rice at critical development stages can provide a theoretical basis for safe production, disaster prevention and mitigation options in rice production in southwestern China. On the one hand, according to the safe sowing period, the actual sowing period of rice can be adjusted in time, which is necessary to avoid hazards of meteorological disasters. On the other hand, the local major rice varieties can be selected through probabilistic decision-making, to ensure stable and high yield in rice production.
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图1研究区域气象站点分布及海拔
Figure1.Distribution of weather stations and altitude in study region
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域水稻露地湿润育秧安全播种期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure2.Distribution of the safe sowing date (Julian day, DOY) of rice seedlings without film-mulching in watered nursery under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域水稻地膜旱育秧安全播种期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure3.Distribution of the safe sowing date (Julian day, DOY) of rice seedlings with film-mulching in dry nursery under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域水稻地膜湿润育秧安全播种期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure4.Distribution of the safe sowing date (Julian day, DOY) of rice seedlings with film-mulching in watered nursery under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域中稻开花期高温热害(日平均气温≥30 ℃)最早发生期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure5.Distribution of the earliest occurrence date (Julian day, DOY) of heat damage (daily average temperature ≥ 30 ℃) at flowering stage of middle-season rice under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域中稻开花期高温热害(日最高气温≥35 ℃)最早发生期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure6.Distribution of the earliest occurrence date (Julian day, DOY) of heat damage (daily maximum temperature≥ 35 ℃) at flowering stage of middle-season rice under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图71961—2015年不同保证率下西南区域再生稻或晚稻开花期低温冷害最早发生期(日序, DOY)的空间分布
Figure7.Distribution of the earliest occurrence date (Julian day, DOY) of chilling damage at flowering stage of ratooning or late rice under different guarantee rates in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1西南区域水稻关键生育期界限温度
Table1.Threshold temperature of critical development stages of rice in Southwest China
| 项目?Item | 界限温度 Critical temperature (℃) |
| 露地湿润育秧安全播种期日平均气温 Daily mean temperature (Td) of the safe sowing date of rice seedlings without film-mulching in watered nursery | ≥12 |
| 地膜旱育秧安全播种期日平均气温 Daily mean temperature (Td) of the safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film-mulching in dry nursery | ≥9.7 |
| 地膜湿润育秧安全播种期日平均气温 Daily mean temperature (Td) of the safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film-mulching in watered nursery | ≥10.4 |
| 中稻开花期高温热害日平均气温 Daily mean temperature (Td) of heat damage at flowering stage of middle-season rice | ≥30 |
| 中稻开花期高温热害日最高气温 Daily maximum temperature (Tmax) of heat damage at flowering stage of middle-season rice | ≥35 |
| 再生稻或晚稻开花期低温冷害日平均气温 Daily mean temperature (Td) of chilling damage at flowering stage of ratooning or late rice | ≤22 |
下载: 导出CSV表2西南区域水稻关键生育期界限温度起始期预测模型
Table2.Prediction models of threshold temperature start dates of critical development stages of rice in Southwest China
| 项目?Item | 模型?Model | |||
| 80%保证率 80% guarantee rate | 85%保证率 85% guarantee rate | 90%保证率 90% guarantee rate | 95%保证率 95% guarantee rate | |
| 露地湿润育秧安全播种期 Safe sowing date of rice seedlings without film-mulching in watered nursery | y=4.792x1+5.462x2+ 0.033x3-644.664 (r2=0.705) | y=4.700x1+5.408x2+ 0.033x3-633.109 (r2=0.695) | y=4.663x1+5.380x2+ 0.033x3-627.569 (r2=0.692) | y=4.541x1+5.303x2+ 0.034x3-611.902 (r2=0.672) |
| 地膜旱育秧安全播种期 Safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film-mulching in dry nursery | y=4.164x1+5.966x2+ 0.028x3-690.688 (r2=0.712) | y=4.151x1+5.950x2+ 0.029x3-685.266 (r2=0.697) | y=4.153x1+5.935x2+ 0.029x3-681.978 (r2=0.688) | y=4.135x1+5.907x2+ 0.030x3-674.388 (r2=0.662) |
| 地膜湿润育秧安全播种期 Safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film- mulching in watered nursery | y=4.567x1+5.940x2+ 0.030x3-696.638 (r2=0.723) | y=4.569x1+5.888x2+ 0.031x3-687.993 (r2=0.713) | y=4.541x1+5.889x2+ 0.031x3-685.693 (r2=0.706) | y=4.518x1+5.830x2+ 0.032x3-674.693 (r2=0.685) |
| 中稻开花期高温热害的最早发生期(日平均气温指标) Earliest occurrence date of heat damage (based on daily average temperature) at flowering stage of middle-season rice | y=3.206x1+119.623 (r2=0.267) | y=3.247x1-0.008x3+ 126.121 (r2=0.309) | y=3.310x1-0.010x3+ 126.806 (r2=0.316) | y=3.516x1-0.013x3+ 127.023 (r2=0.337) |
| 中稻开花期高温热害的最早发生期(日最高气温指标) Earliest occurrence date of heat damage (based on daily maximum temperature) at flowering stage of middle-season rice | y=1.855x1+156.723 (r2=0.140) | y=2.146x1+150.706 (r2=0.176) | y=2.306x1+147.282 (r2=0.196) | y=2.446x1-0.006x3+ 149.670 (r2=0.246) |
| 再生稻或晚稻开花期低温冷害的最早发生期 Earliest occurrence date of chilling damage at flowering stage of ratooning or late rice | y=2.535x1-1.199x2- 0.036x3+295.772 (r2=0.780) | y=3.036x1-1.230x2- 0.039x3+290.503 (r2=0.780) | y=3.286x1-1.241x2- 0.040x3+287.483 (r2=0.779) | y=3.914x1-1.283x2- 0.044x3+281.367 (r2=0.772) |
| y为水稻各关键生育期界限温度的起始期; x1为纬度; x2为经度; x3为海拔高度; r2为决定系数。y is the critical temperature occurrence period for rice at critical stages of development. x1 is the latitude. x2 is the longitude. x3 is the altitude. r2 is the determination coefficient. | ||||
下载: 导出CSV表3西南区域典型站点水稻关键生育期界限温度起始期预测模型的验证
Table3.Prediction model verification of critical temperature occurrence period of critical development stages of rice at typical sites in Southwest China
| 站点 Station | 保证率 Guarantee rate (%) | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | |
| 四川合江 Hejiang of Sichuan | 80 | 实际值(日序)?Actual value (Julian day) | 85 | 70 | 74 | 212 | 207 | 235 |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 83 | 68 | 72 | 211 | 210 | 232 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2. 9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | ||
| 85 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 88 | 74 | 77 | 216 | 210 | 245 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 85 | 72 | 75 | 217 | 212 | 237 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 | ||
| 90 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 90 | 76 | 79 | 218 | 212 | 250 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 87 | 74 | 77 | 219 | 214 | 242 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 3.2 | ||
| 95 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 94 | 81 | 83 | 223 | 217 | 262 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 91 | 78 | 81 | 225 | 218 | 252 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 3.8 | ||
| 贵州湄潭 Meitan of Guizhou | 80 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 106 | 92 | 97 | 219 | 218 | 202 |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 102 | 88 | 92 | 209 | 208 | 209 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.4 | ||
| 85 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 110 | 97 | 101 | 225 | 219 | 204 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 105 | 92 | 96 | 215 | 210 | 212 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||
| 90 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 112 | 99 | 103 | 226 | 219 | 205 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 107 | 94 | 98 | 216 | 211 | 214 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | ||
| 95 | 实际值(日序)? Actual value (Julian day) | 116 | 102 | 107 | 227 | 221 | 207 | |
| 模拟值(日序)? Simulated value (Julian day) | 111 | 99 | 103 | 218 | 213 | 217 | ||
| 相对误差绝对值?Absolute value of the relative error (%) | 4.2 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | ||
| S1为露地湿润育秧安全播种期; S2为地膜旱育秧安全播种期; S3为地膜湿润育秧安全播种期; S4为中稻开花期高温热害的最早发生期(日平均气温指标); S5为中稻开花期高温热害的最早发生期(日最高气温指标); S6为再生稻或晚稻开花期低温冷害的最早发生期。S1 is the safe sowing date of rice seedlings without film-mulching in watered nursery. S2 is the safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film-mulching in dry nursery. S3 is the safe sowing date of rice seedlings with film-mulching in watered nursery. S4 is the earliest occurrence date of heat damage (based on daily average temperature) at flowering stage of middle-season rice. S5 is the earliest occurrence date of heat damage (based on daily maximum temperature) at flowering stage of middle-season rice. S6 is the earliest occurrence date of chilling damage at flowering stage of ratooning or late rice. | ||||||||
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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