李扬,
王靖^,,
唐建昭,
黄明霞,
白慧卿,
王娜,
贺付伟
中国农业大学资源与环境学院 北京 100193
基金项目: 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金2018TC042
国家自然科学基金项目41475104

详细信息

作者简介:李扬, 主要从事农业生产系统模拟研究。E-mail:doudoucau@163.com

通讯作者:王靖, 主要从事农业生产系统模拟与气候变化影响评估研究。E-mail:wangj@cau.edu.cn

中图分类号:S162.5+7

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出版历程

收稿日期:2018-07-29
录用日期:2018-09-27
刊出日期:2019-02-01

Coupling impacts of planting date and cultivar on potato yield

LI Yang,
WANG Jing^,,
TANG Jianzhao,
HUANG Mingxia,
BAI Huiqing,
WANG Na,
HE Fuwei
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Funds: the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China2018TC042
the National Natural Science Foundation of China41475104

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Corresponding author:WANG Jing, E-mail:wangj@cau.edu.cn

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摘要
摘要:马铃薯作为北方农牧交错带的主栽作物，随着气候向暖干化发展，其产量的稳定对保证该地区粮食安全有重要意义。为探究播期和品种耦合对农牧交错带马铃薯产量的影响，基于分期播种和品种比较试验的生育期和产量数据对APSIM-Potato模型进行调参和验证，利用验证后的模型设置连续模拟情景，比较不同耦合方式的产量及保证率，分析农牧交错带雨养马铃薯的最佳播期和品种耦合方式。结果表明：APSIM-Potato模型可以较好地模拟不同熟性马铃薯品种的生育期和产量，不同品种生育期实测值和模拟值的均方根误差（RMSE）均小于6.3 d，不同品种产量实测值和模拟值的归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）均小于7.6%。雨养条件下，农牧交错带不同播期和品种耦合下马铃薯的多年平均鲜重产量为10 494 kg·hm^-2；中熟品种‘克新一号’晚播（6月1日播种）的平均产量最高，为12 153 kg·hm^-2，且可以保证在66.7%的年份产量高于不同耦合方式的平均值，较早播（4月26日播种）和中播（5月15日播种）的平均鲜重产量分别高16.3%和7.0%，较同一时期播种的早熟品种‘费乌瑞它’和晚熟品种‘底西芮’分别高18.7%和17.2%。本研究揭示了农牧交错带马铃薯播期、品种和环境存在显著的交互作用，播期推迟和选种中熟马铃薯品种是应对气候暖干化的重要方式，为该地区马铃薯适应气候变化和保证稳产高产提供了科学依据。
Abstract:Potato is one of the major food crops in agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) in North China, with a total yield accounting for 46.8% of total grain yield in the region. Therefore, yield stability of potato is of significance for food security in the region. Due to the shortage of surface water and groundwater resources, potato is mostly produced under rainfed condition in the APE. Thus, there is large variation in rainfed potato yield due to high variability of annual and season precipitation. Adjustment in planting date and selection of cultivars were both effective ways of adapting to climate change, but there were few studies on the exploration of the impacts of coupling planting date and cultivar type on potato yield under rainfed condition in the APE. In this study, the APSIM-Potato model were calibrated and validated by serial planting date and cultivar experiments of potato in 1981-2010 to analyze the optimal combinations of planting date and cultivar by focusing on yield and guaranteeing rate of yield of rainfed potato. The results showed that APSIM-Potato model performed well in simulating phenology and fresh yield under different planting dates and cultivars of potato. The range of root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and simulated phenology was 0-6.3 days for the calibration years and 2.1-4.2 days for the validation years under different combinations of planting date and cultivar type. The range of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between the observed and simulated yields under different combinations of planting date and cultivar type was 0.3%-3.9% for the calibration years and 0.9%-7.6% for the validation years. Under rainfed condition, the range of simulated fresh yield of potato under different combinations of planting date and cultivar was 0-28 914 kg·hm^-2 for the period 1981-2010, with an average of 10 494 kg·hm^-2. Planting mid-maturing cultivar 'Kexin_1' in late planting date (1^st June) produced fresh yield of 12 153 kg·hm^-2, which was respectively 16.3% and 7.0% higher than that under early planting season (26^th April) and the middle planting (15^th May) in the APE during 1981-2010. Moreover, the simulated fresh potato yield of 'Kexin_1' under late planting date was respectively 18.7% and 17.2% higher than that of early-maturing cultivar 'Favorita' and late-maturing cultivar 'Desiree'. Planting mid-maturing cultivar at late planting date (1^st June) guaranteed higher simulated fresh yield than the average in 66.7% years of 1981-2010. The study showed significant interaction among planting date, cultivar and environment in potato production in the APE in North China. Under rainfed condition, postponing planting date and selecting mid-maturity cultivar of potato was the most effective way of adapting to the warming and drying climatic conditions. This provided a reference for adapting to climate change and ensuring stable and high potato yield in the region.

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图1不同品种马铃薯生育期(a, b)和产量(c, d)的调参(a, c)和验证(b, d)结果(图a, b中的虚线为1:1线, 图c, d中产量实测值上的误差线为重复间的标准差)
Figure1.Comparison between observed and simulated phenology (a, b) and yield (c, d) of potato for calibration (a, c) and validation years (b, d) (in figure a and b, the dash lines is 1:1 line; in figure c, d, the bar of observed yield shows the standard error of the replicates)


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图21981—2010年APSIM模型模拟的马铃薯鲜重产量的保证率[图a、b、c表示在同一播种期下(a: 4月26日; b: 5月15日; c: 6月1日)不同品种的产量保证率; 图d、e、f表示同一品种(d:早熟; e:中熟; f:晚熟)在不同播期下的产量保证率]
E、M、L分别表示早熟品种、中熟品种和晚熟品种。
Figure2.Guarantee rate of simulated fresh yield of potato by APSIM model during 1981 to 2010 [figure a, b, c show the guarantee rates of yield for various varieties with the same planting dates (a: April 26; b: May 15; c: June 1); and figure d, e, f show the guarantee rates of yield for the same variety (d: early maturing; e: middle maturing; f: late maturing) under different planting dates]
E, M, L represent potato varieties of early-maturing, mid-maturing and late-maturing, respectively.


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图3不同播期和品种耦合下不同马铃薯品种的产量(kg·hm^-2)水平
E、M、L分别表示早熟品种、中熟品种和晚熟品种; 04-26、05-15、06-01分别表示早播(4月26日)、中播(5月15日)和晚播(6月1日)。
Figure3.Potato fresh yield (kg·hm^-2) levels for various combinations of planting date and cultivars
E, M, L represent potato varieties of early-maturing, mid-maturing and late-maturing, respectively. 04-26, 05-15, 06-01 represent planting on April 26, May 15 and June 1, respectively.


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图4马铃薯中熟品种早播(a, c: 4月26日播种)和晚播(b, d: 6月1日播种)的水分和温度胁迫因子
Figure4.Water and temperature stress factors of mid-maturing potato cultivar under early (a, c: planting on April 26) and late planting (b, d: planting on June 1)


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表1研究站点土壤基础参数
Table1.Parameters of soil profiles at the study site

土层 Soil layer (cm)	容重 Bulk density (g·cm-3)	饱和含水量 Saturated water content (mm·mm-1)	田间持水量 Field capacity (mm·mm-1)	凋萎含水量 Wilting water content (mm·mm-1)
0~20	1.47	0.43	0.38	0.070
20~40	1.59	0.39	0.34	0.070
40~60	1.63	0.37	0.32	0.070
60~80	1.69	0.36	0.32	0.085
80~100	1.74	0.34	0.28	0.085

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表2不同熟性马铃薯品种的主要遗传参数(E:早熟; M:中熟; L:晚熟)
Table2.Derived cultivar parameters of different potato varieties for APSIM-Potato (E, M, L represent early, middle and late maturing varieties, respectively)

参数 Parameter	费乌瑞它(E) Favorita	克新一号(M) Kexin_1	底西芮(L) Desiree
播种到出苗所需有效积温 Degree days from planting to emergence (y-tt-emergence, ℃·d)	240	450	590
出苗到形成块茎所需有效积温 Degree days from emergence to early tuber formation (tt-earlytuber, ℃·d)	190	280	200
块茎形成到衰老所需有效积温 Degree days from early tuber formation to senescing (tt-senescing, ℃·d)	490	300	355
苗期光周期 Photoperiod for emergence (x_pp_emergence, h)	12	12	12

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