薛帅1,
黄红梅1,
李大志2, 3,
唐帅1,
孔维政1,
易自力1,,
1.湖南农业大学生物科技技术学院 长沙 410128
2.湖南农业大学园艺园林学院 长沙 410128
3.国家柑橘改良中心长沙分中心 长沙 410128
基金项目:湖南农业大学第一批重大科研项目暨创新团队培育项目(17PYXM02)资助
详细信息
作者简介:章翼, 主要研究方向为果树种质资源评价。E-mail: 15974106701@163.com
通讯作者:易自力, 主要研究方向为植物种质资源开发及遗传改良与利用。E-mail: yizili@hunau.net
中图分类号:S601.9计量
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2021-06-30
录用日期:2021-09-26
网络出版日期:2021-10-16
刊出日期:2021-11-10
Prediction of suitable climatic areas for Fortunella species in China
ZHANG Yi1,,XUE Shuai1,
HUANG Hongmei1,
LI Dazhi2, 3,
TANG Shuai1,
KONG Weizheng1,
YI Zili1,,
1. College of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
2. Horticulture and Landscape College, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
3. National Center for Citrus Improvement, Changsha 410128, China
Funds:This study was supported by the First Major Research Projects and the Cultivation Project of Innovation Teams of Hunan Agricultural University (17PYXM02)
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Corresponding author:E-mail: yizili@hunau.net
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摘要
摘要:近年来, 由于金柑商业种植品种单一导致种植效益降低, 种植面积不断萎缩, 而且随着黄龙病等病害的爆发导致野生金柑属资源分布面积不断缩小。在我国湖南、福建、广西等省份已开展过对金柑属野生的资源收集工作, 但尚未考虑气候对其分布的影响。因此, 亟需了解金柑气候适宜分布区, 为其种质资源的收集和保护提供基础。本研究运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS 10.3), 结合金柑属(Fortunella)植物的实际分布数据和18个影响分布的气候因子, 对金柑属6个种的潜在气候适宜区进行预测, 并利用刀切法(Jackknife test)筛选主导气候因子。结果表明, 金柑属潜在气候适宜区范围主要分布于大别山—大巴山以南地区, 山金柑(F. hindsii)、罗浮金柑(F. margarita)、罗纹金柑(F. japonica)、长叶金柑(F. polyandra)、金弹(F. crassifolia)和长寿金柑(F. obovata)的最适宜区面积为354 000 km2、276 100 km2、495 800 km2、613 600 km2、474 400 km2和663 403 km2; 除长叶金柑外, 其他5个种的气候最适宜区主要分布于湖南、江西、广西、福建、浙江、广东6个省份; 长寿金柑的最适宜区除上述各省份外还包括重庆; 长叶金柑的气候最适宜区包括重庆、广西、广东、海南、云南南部地区。金柑属实际分布点均在预测图中的最适宜区域内, 说明预测结果与实际分布情况高度一致。金柑属6个种适宜区预测模型的曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.9, 表明本研究预测分布范围精确度高, 可作为金柑属野生资源的区域调查及保护、优良品种推广的科学依据。
关键词:金柑属/
MaxEnt/
气候适宜区/
主导气候因子
Abstract:Fortunella is one group of the citrus fruit trees in southern China, a kind of edible hesperidium with rich flavonoids, carotenoids, limonoids, coumarins, and the fruit of these evergreen trees also have ornamental value. In recent years, areas of growth of commercial species of Fortunella have been decreasing due to a low net interest of planting single species. Meanwhile, natural resources have also withered due to the Huanglong disease caused by gram-negative bacteria. National collection of germplasm resources of Fortunella has been completed in parts of China, including Hunan, Fujian, Guangxi, etc.; however, this work did not take the effects of climatic factors on their distribution into consideration, which could provide a scientific basis for protection and collection of natural resources of Fortunella species. In this study, we predicted suitable climatic areas for six species (F. hindsii Swingle, F. margarita Swingle, F. japonica Swingle, F. polyandra Tanaka, F. crassifolia Swingle, and F. obovata Tanaka) of Fortunella using the MaxEnt (the maximum entropy, MaxEnt 3.3.3) model and the ArcGIS (the geographic information, ArcGIS 10.3) system to analyze actual geographical distribution data and 18 climate factors affecting their distribution. The dominant climate factors were screened through Jackknife test. Results showed that the suitable climatic region for the six species analyzed were distributed mainly in the southern areas of Dabie—Daba Mountain. The suitable region for the six species covered 354 000 km2 (F. hindsii Swingle), 276 100 km2 (F. margarita Swingle), 495 800 km2 (F. japonica Swingle), 613 600 km2 (F. polyandra Tanaka), 474 400 km2 (F. crassifolia Swingle), and 663 403 km2 (F. obovata Tanaka). The optimum climate region for F. polyandra Tanaka mainly extended to Chongqing, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and south of Yunnan, while that for the other five species was predominantly distributed in Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangdong; some favorable region for F. obovata Tanaka even extended to Chongqing. The main climatic factors affecting the growth of Fortunella include minimum temperature, precipitation, and isothermality. The major climatic factors affecting F. hindsii Swingle distribution included isothermality and precipitation in April and June, while for F. margarita Swingle such climatic factors comprised precipitation in April and June, minimum temperature in February and July, and isothermality and precipitation in the driest month. Similarly, geographical distribution of F. japonica Swingle was influenced by precipitation in April and June, minimum temperature in July, isothermality and precipitation in the driest month, and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Likewise, the major climatic factors affecting natural distribution of F. polyandra Tanaka comprised precipitation in July and in December, minimum temperature in February and June, isothermality, and mean precipitation in the warmest quarter. Similar analytical results demonstrated that the dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of both F. crassifolia Swingle and F. obovata Tanaka were in terms of precipitation in June, and isothermality and mean precipitation of the warmest quarter. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the MaxEnt model for all six species exceeded 0.9 and their actual distribution areas were also integrated, which indicated that the predicted distribution range of this study was highly accurate. Consequently, these results are expected to provide scientific guidance for regional investigation and protection of wild species of Fortunella and promotion of its varieties.
Key words:Fortunella/
MaxEnt Model/
Climatic suitable areas/
Dominant climatic factors
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图1金柑属植物山金柑(a)、罗浮(b)、罗纹(c)、长叶金柑(d)、金弹(e)和长寿金柑(f)在我国的潜在适生分布范围
Figure1.Prediction results of suitable distribution areas of six species of Fortunella in China based on MaxEnt model (a: F. hindsii Swingle; b: F. margarita Swingle; c: F. japonica Swingle; d: F. polyandra Tanaka; e: F. crassifolia Swingle; f: F. obovata Tanaka)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1用于金柑适生范围预测的18个环境因子
Table1.Environment factors used to predict the potential distribution area of Fortunella
| 代码 Code | 描述 Description | 代码 Code | 描述 Description | |
| Bio2 | 昼夜温差月均值 Monthly mean of diurnal temperature range | Tmax4 | 4月最高温度 Maximum temperature of April | |
| Bio3 | 等温性 Isothermality | Prec4 | 4月降雨量 Precipitation of April | |
| Bio5 | 最热月份最高温度 Max temperature of the warmest month | Tmin6 | 6月最小温度 Minimum temperature of June | |
| Bio8 | 最湿季度平均温度 Mean temperature of the wettest quarter | Tmax6 | 6月最高温度 Maximum temperature of June | |
| Bio14 | 最干月降雨量 Precipitation of the driest month | Prec6 | 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | |
| Bio15 | 降水量变异系数 Variation coefficient of precipitation | Tmin7 | 7月最小温度 Minimum temperature of July | |
| Bio18 | 最暖季度降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | Prec7 | 7月降雨量 Precipitation of July | |
| Bio19 | 最冷季度平均降水量 Precipitation of the coldest quarter | Prec10 | 10月降雨量 Precipitation of October | |
| Tmin2 | 2月最低温度 Minimum temperature of February | Prec12 | 12月降雨量 Precipitation of December |
下载: 导出CSV表2金柑属6个种的主要气候因子贡献率及气候因子参数范围
Table2.Relative contributions of the main Climatic variables to suitable distribution of six Fortunella species
| 种名 Species | 环境因子 Climatic factor | 相对贡献率 Contribution rate (%) | 气候参数范围 Climatic factor range |
| 山金柑 F. hindsii Swingle | 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | 42.5 | 200~250 mm |
| 4月降雨量 Precipitation of April | 30.8 | 145~225 mm | |
| 等温性 Isothermality | 18.2 | 28.5~35.0 | |
| 罗浮 F. margarita Swingle | 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | 45.9 | 200~300 mm |
| 等温性 Isothermality | 12.9 | 28.5~35.0 | |
| 最干月降雨量 Precipitation of driest month | 6.4 | 26.5~49.0 mm | |
| 2月最低温度 Minimum temperature of February | 6.1 | 5~10 ℃ | |
| 4月降雨量 Precipitation of April | 6.1 | 145~225 mm | |
| 7月最低温度 Minimum temperature of July | 4.7 | 23~26 ℃ | |
| 罗纹 F. japonica Swingle | 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | 41.6 | 133~166 mm |
| 等温性 Isothermality | 13.5 | 25~35 | |
| 7月最低温度 Minimum temperature of July | 8.9 | 23~26 ℃ | |
| 最干月降雨量 Precipitation of driest month | 8.6 | 37.5~50.0 mm | |
| 最暖季度平均降雨量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 8.0 | 403~750 mm | |
| 4月降雨量 Precipitation of April | 6.8 | 132~150 mm | |
| 长叶金柑 F. polyandra Tanaka | 最暖季度平均降雨量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 23.7 | 500~2000 mm |
| 6月最低温度 Minimum temperature of June | 17.5 | 23.2~30.0 ℃ | |
| 2月最低温度 Minimum temperature of February | 16.7 | 3.2~17.5 ℃ | |
| 12月降雨量 Precipitation of December | 9.6 | 32~100 mm | |
| 7月降雨量 Precipitation of July | 8.5 | 150~500 mm | |
| 金弹 F. crassifolia Swingle | 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | 43.6 | 150~350 mm |
| 等温性 Isothermality | 18.9 | 15~35 | |
| 4月降雨量 Precipitation of April | 14.3 | 150~275 mm | |
| 最暖季度平均降雨量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 9.2 | 333~666 mm | |
| 7月最低温度 Minimum temperature of July | 6.0 | 24~26 ℃ | |
| 长寿金柑 F. obovata Tanaka | 最暖季度平均降雨量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 42.4 | 457~832 mm |
| 6月降雨量 Precipitation of June | 18.9 | 166~400 mm | |
| 等温性 Isothermality | 12.9 | 25~35 | |
| 7月最低温度 Minimum temperature of July | 12.3 | 23.2~25.0 ℃ |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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