白帆^{1, 3,},
杨晓光^1,,,
刘志娟¹,
孙爽¹,
张镇涛¹,
王晓煜^{1, 2},
高继卿¹,
刘涛¹
1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院 北京 100193
2.中国气象局资产管理事务中心 北京 100081
3.北京市气象服务中心 北京 100089
基金项目: 国家重点研究与发展计划项目2017YFD0300301

详细信息

作者简介:白帆, 主要研究方向为气候变化对作物的影响与适应。E-mail:baifan19950613@126.com

通讯作者:杨晓光, 主要研究方向为气候变化对作物的影响与适应。E-mail:yangxg@cau.edu.cn

中图分类号:S513

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出版历程

收稿日期:2019-08-06
录用日期:2019-12-31
刊出日期:2020-04-01

Effects of sowing dates on grain yield of spring maize in the Three-Province of the Northeast China under climate change

BAI Fan^{1, 3,},
YANG Xiaoguang^1,,,
LIU Zhijuan¹,
SUN Shuang¹,
ZHANG Zhentao¹,
WANG Xiaoyu^{1, 2},
GAO Jiqing¹,
LIU Tao¹
1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2. Asset Operation Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3. Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089, China
Funds: the National Key Research and Development Program of China2017YFD0300301

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Corresponding author:YANG Xiaoguang, E-mail:yangxg@cau.edu.cn

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摘要
摘要:为探究气候变化背景下东北三省（黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省）春玉米适宜播期的变化程度，本文以东北三省春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域，基于1981—2015年气象资料，1981—2012年农业气象观测站玉米生育期、产量资料以及土壤资料，分气侯区对农业生产系统模型（APSIM）进行调参和验证，建立适用于东北三省10个不同气候区的模型相关参数，在各气候区利用调参验证后的APSIM-Maize模型设置不同播期，模拟各年代不同播期下春玉米潜在产量和气候生产潜力，综合高产和稳产性指标，明确了不同区域各年代不同条件下适宜播期范围。研究结果表明，APSIM模型对于东北三省7个春玉米品种开花和成熟两个关键生育期以及产量模拟结果与实测结果具有较好的一致性，表明APSIM模型能够较好地模拟研究区域春玉米生育期和产量。充分灌溉条件下，研究区域内适宜播期范围从4月16日至5月19日，空间上呈纬向分布南早北迟的特征；20世纪90年代和21世纪00年代玉米适宜播期较20世纪80年代有提前趋势，其中20世纪90年代提前趋势更明显；第1、第3、第5、第7和第9气候区雨养条件下较充分灌溉条件下适宜播期有推迟趋势，推迟天数为3~6 d。雨养条件下各年代不同气候区理论上的适宜播期较目前生产中实际播期下的产量提高2.84%~9.96%。以上结果为进行未来气候变化对东北三省春玉米影响及其适宜播期等研究提供了技术支撑。
关键词:气候变化/
东北三省/
春玉米/
APSIM模型/
适宜播期/
产量
Abstract:Northeast China is the most sensitive area to climate change, where is also the important region of maiza production in China. It has both theoretical and practical significance to explore suitable sowing date of spring maize in three provinces of Northeast China (Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province) under climate change. Meteorological data from 1981 to 2015 and agro-meteorological observations, including maize phenology data, yield data, and soil data from 1981 to 2012, were used to construct an APSIM-Maize model. The data were collected from the potential cultivation zones of spring maize in the three provinces of the Northeast China. The model was calibrated and validated in different climatic zones across the study area and related parameters were established accordingly. The potential yields and climatic potential yields of spring maize during different decades were then determined by setting different sowing dates based on the validated APSIM model. Combined with the indices of yield level and yield stability, the suitable range of sowing dates was determined under different conditions during different decades in each climatic zone. The results showed that the simulated values, including the days from sowing date to flowering date and maturity date, and the yield, were in agreement with the observed values for the seven spring maize varieties in the study area. This indicated that the APSIM model accurately simulated the phenological development and yield information of spring maize in the study area. Under the condition of sufficient irrigation, the suitable sowing date in the study area ranged from April 16 to May 19. A latitudinal distribution was exhibited for the suitable sowing date with the date moving earlier from south to north. The suitable sowing date of maize in the 1990s and 2000s was earlier than that in the 1980s, and this advanced trend was more significant in the 1990s than in the 2000s. However, under rainfed conditions, the suitable sowing period in the first, third, fifth, seventh, and ninth climatic zones displayed a delayed trend, with the delay ranging from 3 days to 6 days. Compared with the yield simulated using the sowing date applied in current production, the yield simulated using the theoretical suitable sowing date increased by 2.84%-9.96% in different climatic zones during different decades under rainfed conditions. This research supports the use of the APSIM model in Northeast China for applications such as the selection of suitable sowing dates under future climate scenarios.
Key words:Climate change/
Three-Province of the Northeast China/
Spring maize/
APSIM model/
Suitable sowing date/
Yield

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图1研究区域气候区划分及站点分布
Figure1.Division of climatic zones (CZx) and distribution of stations in the study area


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图2东北三省代表站点春玉米播种到开花日数实测值及模拟值验证结果比较
Figure2.Validation of the APSIM model simulation for days from sowing to flowering of spring maize in representative stations of the Three-Province of the Northeast China


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图3东北三省代表站点春玉米播种到成熟日数实测值及模拟值验证结果比较
Figure3.Validation of the APSIM model simulation for days from sowing to maturity of spring maize in representative stations in the Three-Province of the Northeast China


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图4东北三省代表站点春玉米产量实测值及模拟值验证结果比较
Figure4.Validation of the APSIM model simulation for the yield of spring maize in in representative stations in the Three-Province of the Northeast China


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图5充分灌溉(a, b, c)和雨养(d, e, f)条件下20世纪80年代(a, d)、90年代(b, e)和21世纪00年代(c, f)东北三省不同气候区春玉米适宜播期的时空分布
Figure5.Distribution of suitable sowing dates for spring maize in different climatic zones in the Three-Province of the Northeast China during 1980s (a, d), 1990s (b, e) and 2000s (c, f) under full irrigation (a, b, c) and rainfed (d, e, f) conditions


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表1东北三省气候区划及划分标准
Table1.Criteria for the division and distribution of climatic zones in the Three-Province of the Northeast China

气候区 Climatic zone	区域范围分布 Regional distribution	代表站点 Representative station	≥10 ℃有效积温 Effective accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) (℃·d)	水分亏缺指数(K) Crop water deficit index (K)
CZ1	黑龙江省东部及西北部 Eastern and Northwest of Heilongjiang Province	富锦、鸡西、宝清 Fujin, Jixi, Baoqing	1 314~1 600	> 0
CZ2	黑龙江省中部及吉林省东部 Central of Heilongjiang Province and East of Jilin Province	佳木斯、尚志、牡丹江 Jiamusi, Shangzhi, Mudanjiang	1 314~1 600	< 0
CZ3	黑龙江省西南部 Southwest of Heilongjiang Province	哈尔滨、海伦、齐齐哈尔 Harbin, Hailun, Qiqihar	1 601~1 800	> 0
CZ4	吉林省中部 Central of Jilin Province	通化、蛟河、桦甸 Tonghua, Jiaohe, Huadian	1 601~1 800	< 0
CZ5	吉林省西部 West of Jilin Province	白城、泰来、乾安 Baicheng, Tailai, Qian’an	1 801~2 000	> 0
CZ6	辽宁省东部 East of Liaoning Province	宽甸、桓仁、开原 Kuandian, Huanren, Kaiyuan	1 801~2 000	< 0
CZ7	辽宁省西北部 Northwest of Liaoning Province	阜新、彰武、黑山 Fuxin, Zhangwu, Heishan	2 001~2 200	> 0
CZ8	辽宁省中部 Central of Liaoning Province	本溪、岫岩、庄河 Benxi, Xiuyan, Zhuanghe	2 001~2 200	< 0
CZ9	辽宁省西南部 Southwest of Liaoning Province	朝阳、建平、锦州 Chaoyang, Jianping, Jinzhou	2 201~2 370	> 0
CZ10	辽宁省南部 South of Liaoning Province	营口、兴城、大连 Yingkou, Xingcheng, Dalian	2 201~2 370	< 0

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表2东北三省各气候区春玉米APSIM模型调参和验证所用品种及数据来源
Table2.Maize cultivars and data sources for APSIM calibration and evaluation in different climatic zone in the Three-Province of the Northeast China

气候区 Climatic zone	代表站点 Representative station	品种 Variety	调参验证年份 Year for calibration and validation
CZ1, CZ2	黑龙江佳木斯Jiamusi, Heilongjiang	东农248 Dongnong 248	1994, 1996, 1998, 2001—2003
CZ3	黑龙江哈尔滨Harbin, Heilongjiang	四单19 Sidan 19	1999—2004
CZ4	吉林通化Tonghua, Jilin	吉单101 Jidan 101	1988—1991, 1995, 1999
CZ5	吉林白城Baicheng, Jilin	白单9 Baidan 9	1990—1995
CZ6	吉林省辽源Liaoyuan, Jilin	吉单159 Jidan 159	1998, 2002—2006
CZ7, CZ8	辽宁瓦房店Wafangdian, Liaoning	连玉6号Lianyu 6	1999—2005
CZ9, CZ10	辽宁建平Jianping, Liaoning	丹玉13 Danyu 13	1996, 1998, 2001—2004

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表3东北三省不同气候区春玉米开花期、成熟期及产量APSIM模型验证结果评价
Table3.Validation metrics of APSIM model performance for the flowering date, maturity date and yield of spring maize in each climatic zone in the Three-Province of the Northeast China

气候区 Climatic zone	品种 Variety	项目 Item	模型评价指标Validation parameter
			R2	RMSE	NRMSE (%)	MAE	D
CZ1, CZ2	东农248 Dongnong 248	开花期Flowering date	0.826	1.08 d	1.56	0.83 d	0.941
		成熟期Maturity date	0.902	1.58 d	1.23	1.17 d	0.973
		产量Yield	0.890	452.81 kg·hm-2	11.30	305.37 kg·hm-2	0.954
CZ3	四单19 Sidan 19	开花期Flowering date	0.828	2.35 d	3.14	2.17 d	0.947
		成熟期Maturity date	0.892	4.22 d	3.03	2.83 d	0.959
		产量Yield	0.893	621.20 kg·hm-2	10.27	553.5 kg·hm-2	0.870
CZ4	吉单101 Jidan 101	开花期Flowering date	0.955	3.29	3.81	3.17 d	0.865
		成熟期Maturity date	0.898	2.27	1.64	2.17 d	0.955
		产量Yield	0.898	1 418.61 kg·hm-2	15.11	1 372.75 kg·hm-2	0.740
CZ5	白单9 Baidan 9	开花期Flowering date	0.922	1.47 d	1.83	1.17 d	0.961
		成熟期Maturity date	0.863	1.83 d	1.30	1.33 d	0.948
		产量Yield	0.923	1 412.69 kg·hm-2	13.77	1 279.58 kg·hm-2	0.825
CZ6	吉单159 Jidan 159	开花期Flowering date	0.832	1.35 d	1.56	1.17 d	0.952
		成熟期Maturity date	0.905	3.32 d	2.22	3.00 d	0.919
		产量Yield	0.904	1 424.04 kg·hm-2	17.07	1 409.69 kg·hm-2	0.756
CZ7, CZ8	连玉6号 Lianyu 6	开花期Flowering date	0.718	1.78 d	1.96	1.50 d	0.889
		成熟期Maturity date	0.837	2.97 d	2.17	2.17 d	0.905
		产量Yield	0.899	914.98 kg·hm-2	14.66	858.00 kg·hm-2	0.813
CZ9, CZ10	丹玉13 Danyu 13	开花期Flowering date	0.909	2.00 d	2.45	1.67 d	0.931
		成熟期Maturity date	0.817	3.19 d	2.19	2.83 d	0.874
		产量Yield	0.954	1 536.51 kg·hm-2	15.47	15.47 kg·hm-2	0.817

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表4充分灌溉和雨养条件下不同年代东北三省各气候区春玉米的适宜播期
Table4.Suitable sowing dates of spring maize in different climatic zones in the Three-Province of the Northeast China during different decades under full irrigation and rainfed conditions

灌溉条件 Irrigation	气候区 Climatic zone	适宜播期(月-日) Suitable sowing date (month-day)
		1980s	1990s	2000s
充分灌溉 Full irrigation	CZ1	05-10—05-16	05-07—05-13	05-07—05-13
	CZ2	05-07—05-19	05-04—05-13	05-07—05-16
	CZ3	05-07—05-16	05-01—05-13	05-01—05-13
	CZ4	05-04—05-13	05-01—05-10	05-04—05-13
	CZ5	05-01—05-13	04-28—05-10	05-01—05-10
	CZ6	04-28—05-07	04-22—05-04	04-25—05-07
	CZ7	04-28—05-01	04-22—04-28	04-25—05-01
	CZ8	04-22—05-01	04-19—04-28	04-22—04-28
	CZ9	04-19—04-25	04-16—04-25	04-16—04-25
	CZ10	04-22—05-01	04-16—05-01	04-19—05-01
雨养 Rainfed	CZ1	05-10—05-16	05-10—05-16	05-10—05-16
	CZ2	05-10—05-16	05-07—05-13	05-07—05-16
	CZ3	05-07—05-19	05-01—05-16	05-01—05-16
	CZ4	05-04—05-13	05-04—05-10	05-04—05-13
	CZ5	05-04—05-16	05-01—05-10	05-04—05-13
	CZ6	04-28—05-07	04-22—05-07	04-25—05-07
	CZ7	04-28—05-07	04-28—05-01	04-28—05-04
	CZ8	04-22—05-01	04-19—04-28	04-22—04-28
	CZ9	04-22—04-28	04-19—04-28	04-22—04-25
	CZ10	04-22—05-01	04-16—05-01	04-19—05-01

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表5雨养条件下东北三省各气候区不同年代春玉米适宜播期与实际播期相比的增产幅度
Table5.Increase of yield in different climatic zones of spring maize sown in suitable dates over actual yield in the Three- Province of the Northeast China during different decades under rainfed condition

气候区 Climatic zone	增产幅度Yield increase rate (%)
	1980s	1990s	2000s
CZ1	6.69	6.44	3.90
CZ2	7.21	6.04	4.61
CZ3	4.58	5.60	5.45
CZ4	5.71	6.62	7.07
CZ5	5.83	4.37	4.46
CZ6	5.75	2.86	4.83
CZ7	7.81	2.39	8.08
CZ8	7.59	4.81	3.31
CZ9	9.69	4.04	2.84
CZ10	8.50	3.75	4.50

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