刘某承2,,,
焦雯珺2,
何思源2,
杨伦2, 3,
闵庆文2, 3
1.中国人民大学 北京 100872
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
3.中国科学院大学 北京 100049
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41201586
中国科学院特色研究所培育项目TSYJS05
详细信息
作者简介:林惠凤, 主要研究方向为人口、资源与环境经济学。E-mail:megan12345@126.com
通讯作者:刘某承, 主要研究方向为生态经济与农业生态。E-mail:liumc@igsnrr.ac.cn
中图分类号:F061.5;F062.2计量
文章访问数:694
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2018-08-25
录用日期:2019-03-07
刊出日期:2019-08-01
Effect of irrigation method on farmers' planting decision and the economy: A case in Zhangbei County, Hebei Province
LIN Huifeng1,,LIU Moucheng2,,,
JIAO Wenjun2,
HE Siyuan2,
YANG Lun2, 3,
MIN Qingwen2, 3
1. Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China41201586
the Special Research Institute Project of Chinse Academy of SciencesTSYJS05
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Corresponding author:LIU Moucheng, E-mail: liumc@igsnrr.ac.cn
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摘要
摘要:国内外研究表明节水灌溉技术具有田块尺度上的节水效益和对作物的增产效果。但从社会-经济-生态复合系统的角度，灌溉方式的转变是否会改变农户的种植决策和农业生产行为仍有待深入研究。本文以河北省张北县为例，通过实地调研建立了柯布-道格拉斯生产函数等模型，研究了转换灌溉方式对农户种植决策和福利的影响。结果发现，高效率的灌溉方式可以使旱作作物、低耗水作物和普通耗水作物的水分生产力提高25.0%~347.7%；但同时也促使了研究区域88.9%的农户种植用水强度更大、收益更高的经济作物，以期获得投资的回报；灌溉方式改变会影响农业生产的投入和产出，高效率的灌溉方式会增加灌溉设施建设成本（6.6%~16.2%），增加农药投入（2~4倍）、减少劳动力投入（20.6%~59.3%）。研究结果证明转换灌溉方式后，农户作为农业生产的基本单元，在追求利润最大化的动机驱动下，会改变其种植决策和农业生产行为，从而改变农户的经济效益。本文的研究结果可为进一步深入分析节水灌溉对区域农业生产的用水影响提供科学依据。
关键词:节水灌溉/
农户行为/
种植决策/
种植结构/
农户福利
Abstract:Owing to drought and water shortage in North China, water-saving irrigation is considered an effective measure to reduce agricultural water consumption. Domestic and foreign studies have shown the effect of water-saving irrigation technology on water saving and crop yield increase at the field scale. However, from the perspective of the socio-economic-ecological compound system, the shift of irrigation methods can change the farmers' planting decision and agricultural production behavior, which has a complex effect on the regional agricultural water use. Taking Zhangbei County of Hebei Province as an example, through field investigation and model simulation, we analyzed the effect of irrigation methods conversion on farmers' planting decisions and welfare. It was found that high-efficiency irrigation methods improved water productivity of crops by 25.0%-347.7%. Under the same input of other factors and the same amount of water resources, higher yields and benefits were obtained through the adoption of high-efficiency irrigation methods. In the case of scarce water resources, the same output was achieved with relatively less water resources. Secondly, when farmers adopted high-efficiency irrigation practices, 88.9% of the local farmers grew more water intensive cash crops with higher yields to obtain higher investment returns. At the same time, farmers also tended to shift from minimizing material inputs to maximizing profits. For crops with lower yields, compensating the cost of irrigation facilities with the benefits of using high-efficiency irrigation methods was often difficult, and farmers were less motivated to change irrigation practices. Thirdly, changes in irrigation methods affected the input and output of agricultural production, increased the construction cost of irrigation facilities by 6.6%-16.2%, the input of pesticides by 2-4 times, and decreased labor input by 20.6%-59.3%. With the economic situation of yearly increase in labor costs, the reduction in labor input owing to drip irrigation and the increase in labor productivity were likely to be the primary reasons why farmers were willing to choose high-efficiency irrigation methods. The results of the study explained why farmers choose to change the irrigation method, how the individual planting decisions of farmers change, and the economic effect on farmers after the transition. As the transformation of individual farmers' irrigation methods and their planting decisions had a direct effect on the water use of regional agricultural production, the results of this study provided a scientific basis for further analysis of the effect of water-saving irrigation on regional agricultural production.
Key words:Water-saving irrigation/
Farmer behavior/
Planting decision-making/
Planting structure/
Farmers welfare
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图1近年来张北县几种主要灌溉方式的使用比例
Figure1.Proportion of major irrigation methods in Zhangbei County in recent years
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2种植结构发生改变的农户2010年和2015年的种植结构
Dry:旱作作物; Low:低耗水作物; Normal:普通耗水作物; High:高耗水作物。
Figure2.Planting structure in 2010 and 2015 of farmers with changes in planting structure between two years
Dry: rainfed crop; Low: low water-consumption crop; Normal: normal water-consumption crop; High: high water-consumption crop.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图32010年至2015年种植结构不变的农户的种植结构
Dry:旱作作物; Low:低耗水作物; Normal:普通耗水作物; High:高耗水作物。
Figure3.Planting structure of farmers with unchanged planting structure from 2010 to 2015
Dry: rainfed crop; Low: low water-consumption crop; Normal: normal water-consumption crop; High: high water-consumption crop.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1不同作物在不同灌溉方式下的总灌溉用水量(wi)、总水分生产力(GWP)和净水分生产力(NWP)
Table1.Total irrigation water (wi), gross water productivity (GWP) and net water productivity (NWP) of different crops under different irrigation methods
| 村 Village | 灌溉方式 Irrigation method | 玉米Maize | 圆白菜Cabbage | 甜菜Beet | ||||||||
| wi (m3?hm-2) | GWP (￥?m-3) | NWP (￥?m-3) | wi (m3?hm-2) | GWP (￥?m-3) | NWP (￥?m-3) | wi (m3?hm-2) | GWP (￥?m-3) | NWP (￥?m-3) | ||||
| 金家村 Jinjia Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | |||||||||||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | 1 005.0 | 180.0 | -8.6 | 2 475.0 | 31.8 | 23.3 | 939.0 | 127.5 | 20.4 | |||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 3 612.0 | 20.4 | 12.1 | 2 068.5 | 59.7 | 30.7 | 769.0 | 321.7 | 70.1 | |||
| 王簸箕沟村 Wangbojigou Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 2 503.5 | 34.4 | 21.4 | 2 400.0 | 34.9 | 14.6 | |||||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | 3 750.0 | 2.0 | -3.2 | 1 687.5 | 35.6 | 17.6 | ||||||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 1 777.5 | 55.5 | 37.9 | 1 330.5 | 45.1 | 19.7 | ||||||
| 豆腐窑村 Doufuyao Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 2 734.5 | 28.2 | 15.9 | ||||||||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | 855.0 | 43.9 | 11.1 | 1 015.5 | 29.5 | 1.5 | ||||||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 1 981.5 | 51.1 | 33.1 | 830.0 | 44.3 | 8.8 | ||||||
| 鱼儿湾村 Yuerwan Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 3 150.0 | 11.9 | 4.1 | ||||||||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | ||||||||||||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 2 175.0 | 38.1 | 12.9 | |||||||||
| 脑包怀村 Naobaohuai Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 900.0 | 25.0 | 2.8 | 1 693.5 | 25.6 | 11.8 | 2 640.0 | 12.1 | 5.0 | ||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | ||||||||||||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 1 431.0 | 58.5 | 20.6 | |||||||||
| 下沙河村 Xiashahe Village | 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 1 368.0 | 15.4 | 2.1 | 3 756.0 | 19.2 | 7.3 | |||||
| 管灌或喷灌Spray/pipe irrigation | 2 682.0 | 32.8 | 11.3 | |||||||||
| 滴灌或膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 1 287.0 | 18.1 | 8.9 | 1 200.0 | 81.3 | 63.6 | ||||||
下载: 导出CSV表2基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数不同作物产量的影响因素分析
Table2.Analysis of factors affecting yields of different crops based on Cobb-Douglas production function
| 解释变量 Explanatory variable | 玉米Maize | 圆白菜Cabbage | 花卉Flower | 甜菜Beet | ||||||||
| 系数 Coefficient | t | 系数 Coefficient | t | 系数 Coefficient | t | 系数Coefficient | t | |||||
| $a_{0}^{i}$ | -68.418 | -52.408 | 10.640*** | 10.131 | 8.433 | 26.930 | 6.330*** | 6.856 | ||||
| x | 肥料Fertilizer | 10.494 | 56.002 | -0.087 | -1.057 | -0.759 | -26.733 | 0.065 | 0.966 | |||
| 灌溉水量Irrigation | -0.791 | -63.313 | -0.177 | -2.914 | -0.157 | -4.773 | 0.017 | 0.407 | ||||
| 劳动力Labor | 3.902 | 64.604 | -0.063 | -0.843 | 0.806 | 14.533 | 0.332 | 2.461 | ||||
| S | 地块Field | 0.055 | 0.756 | |||||||||
| T | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 6.126 | 63.240 | 0.166* | 1.959 | 0.186 | 5.267 | 0.386* | 2.152 | |||
| 管灌和喷灌Pipe/spray irrigation | 0.047 | 0.321 | 0.146 | 0.817 | ||||||||
| 调整的R2Adjusted R2 | 1.000 | 0.721 | 0.996 | 0.446 | ||||||||
| 样本数量Sample size | 60 | 110 | 60 | 130 | ||||||||
| *、**、***表示显著性水平分别为10%、5%和1%。*, ** and *** indicate that the significance levels are 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. | ||||||||||||
下载: 导出CSV表3不同灌溉方式下几种典型作物的投入和产出
Table3.Inputs and outputs of several typical crops under different irrigation methods
| ￥?hm-2 | |||||||||||
| 作物 Crop | 灌溉方式 Irrigation method | 投入Input | 总收益 Revenue | 净收益 Income | |||||||
| 土地 Land | 种子 Seed | 肥料 Fertilizer | 农药 Pesticide | 灌溉用水 Irrigation water | 灌溉设施 Irrigation facility | 人力和机械投入 Labor | 总成本 Cost | ||||
| 玉米 Maize | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 3 750 | 862.5 | 3 000.0 | 195.0 | 778.5 | 1 920.0 | 1 350.0 | 11 856.0 | 23 250.0 | 11 394.0 |
| 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 3 750 | 1 075.5 | 3 517.5 | 619.5 | 813.0 | 600.0 | 4 260.0 | 14 635.5 | 21 208.5 | 6 573.0 | |
| 甜菜 Beet | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 3 750 | 937.5 | 6 597.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 3 376.5 | 5 475.0 | 20 229.0 | 35 149.5 | 14 920.5 |
| 喷灌Spray irrigation | 3 750 | 1 072.5 | 5 782.5 | 75.0 | 163.5 | 1 195.5 | 5 937.0 | 17 977.5 | 28 995.0 | 11 017.5 | |
| 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 3 750 | 900.0 | 3 300.0 | 139.5 | 502.5 | 0.0 | 6 412.5 | 15 004.5 | 27 787.5 | 12 783.0 | |
| 圆白菜 Cabbage | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 2 850 | 2 325.0 | 7 518.0 | 1 179.0 | 622.5 | 3 333.0 | 12 045.0 | 29 872.5 | 77 875.5 | 48 003.0 |
| 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 2 850 | 1 650.0 | 12 268.5 | 1 005.0 | 654.0 | 0.0 | 13 594.5 | 32 020.5 | 48 750.0 | 16 729.5 | |
| 西兰花 Broccoli | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 2 850 | 4 570.5 | 8 319.0 | 876.0 | 774.0 | 3 289.5 | 10 878.0 | 31 555.5 | 78 687.0 | 47 131.5 |
| 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 2 850 | 4 242.0 | 8 202.0 | 646.5 | 1 107.0 | 0.0 | 13 795.5 | 30 843.0 | 68 421.0 | 37 578.0 | |
| 花卉 Flower | 膜下滴灌Drip irrigation | 2 850 | 3 600.0 | 5 737.5 | 540.0 | 1 135.0 | 2 950.5 | 7 095.0 | 23 908.0 | 120 000.0 | 96 092.0 |
| 地面灌溉Surface irrigation | 2 850 | 2 764.5 | 9 472.5 | 613.5 | 1 143.0 | 0.0 | 13 044.0 | 29 887.5 | 92 224.5 | 62 337.0 | |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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