余卫国,
刘瑞娜,
岳伟,
陈曦
安徽省农业气象中心/安徽省农村综合经济信息中心 合肥 230031
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFD0300905
国家重点研发计划项目2018YFD0300906
详细信息
作者简介:陈金华, 主要从事农业气象灾害研究。E-mail:ckinghua@126.com
中图分类号:S166;P49计量
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出版历程
收稿日期:2018-09-14
录用日期:2019-01-03
刊出日期:2019-06-01
Daily standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and its adaptability in Anhui Province
CHEN Jinhua,YU Weiguo,
LIU Ruina,
YUE Wei,
CHEN Xi
Anhui Agrometeorological Center/Anhui Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center, Hefei 230031, China
Funds: the National Key Research and Development Project of China2018YFD0300905
the National Key Research and Development Project of China2018YFD0300906
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摘要
摘要:旱涝灾害是影响农业丰产增效的主要灾害之一。目前广泛应用的旱涝指数，多以旬、月、季尺度的旱涝指数为主，其时效性与精准性水平与农业旱涝灾害绿色应对和防控服务需求还有差距。本文选取位于南北气候过渡带的安徽省，应用78个地面气象观测站数据，通过对日尺度前期降水蒸散差值指数（antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index，APEI）序列值进行三参数log-Logistic概率分布拟合，构建日尺度的标准化前期降水蒸散指数（standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index，SAPEI），并在沿淮淮北、江淮之间、沿江江南不同干湿性区域选取代表站，对SAPEI在安徽省旱涝监测评估中的适用性进行分析。结果显示：不同区域代表站APEI序列的经验概率分布曲线与log-Logistic理论概率分布曲线高度拟合，有无降水时逐日SAPEI曲线能反映农田水分收支状况；2011年6月8日、6月28日旱涝急转应用案例中，SAPEI旱涝等级与变化趋势，与同期土壤水分监测的旱涝等级与演变趋势具有很好一致性。基于SAPEI的小麦全生育期累年平均旱涝积空间分布，符合安徽省实际旱涝分布型；全生育期SAPEI累年平均值（ISAPEI）的0值线以北、以西为负值、偏干区域，与安徽省小麦主产区一致。研究表明，日尺度的SAPEI及其旱涝积指数，可以反映降水时间分布及日雨量大小对旱涝的影响，精准刻画安徽省不同区域日尺度的旱涝变化及旱涝过程累积效应，可在安徽省旱涝逐日动态监测与农业旱涝影响评估服务中应用。
Abstract:Agricultural drought and waterlogging are two of the most compelling problems affecting agricultural productivity and efficiency. At present, most of the widely used drought and waterlogging indices are based on ten-day, monthly, and seasonal scales. Their timeliness and accuracy are still far from the desired levels that would enable a sustainable means of preventing and controlling agricultural drought and waterlogging disasters. Based on the data of 78 meteorological observing stations in Anhui Province, selected as the transitional zone between the North Semi-humid and South Humid climates, a daily standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) was constructed by fitting the daily antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (APEI) series with a 3-parameter log-logistic distribution. In addition, its feasibility and adaptability were analyzed in representative stations that were selected in different dry and wet zones, namely, North of the Huaihe River, Between the Huaihe River and Yangtze River, and South of the Yangtze River. The results showed that the empirical probability distribution curve of representative stations' APEI series highly corresponded with the theoretical log-logistic distribution curve. Representative stations' daily SAPEI curve could describe the changes in farmland water budget in the presence/absence of rain. In the case of the rapid change in drought and flood on June 8 and 28, 2011, SAPEI's drought and waterlogging grade and change trends were in good agreement with soil moisture in the same period. Spatial distribution of drought, waterlogging frequency, and annual mean values of accumulated index based on winter wheat whole development stage's SAPEI was primarily distributed latitudinally. These distribution characteristics conformed to the actual distribution of drought and waterlogging in Anhui Province. The 0-value line of annual mean SAPEI (ISAPEI) in the winter wheat whole development stage was located north of the "Between the Huaihe River and Yangtze River" zone and along the eastern and southern foot of the Dabie Mountains. The area covered by negative values was drier and was the main area planted with winter wheat in Anhui Province, and the other area covered by positive values was more humid. In conclusion, the daily-scale SAPEI and its accumulated index could reflect the temporal distribution of precipitation and the impact of daily rainfall amount, and accurately depict the changes in drought and waterlogging and the cumulative effects of drought and waterlogging processes in different regions of Anhui Province. Therefore, SAPEI not only retained the advantages of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) such as strong regional applicability, dimensionless character, and the ability to reflect the influence of temperature, but also had higher timeliness and sensitivity by modifying the precipitation evapotranspiration index from a monthly or seasonal scale to a weighted cumulative precipitation evapotranspiration index at a daily scale. SAPEI can be used in daily dynamic monitoring and the assessment process of drought and waterlogging in Anhui Province.
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图1安微省半湿润区域(a)、半湿润湿润过渡区域(b)和湿润区域(c)代表站点前期累积降水与蒸散差值指数(APEI)序列经验概率与log-Logistic理论概率分布对比
Figure1.Comparison between log-Logistic distribution (black line) and the empirical probability distribution (dots) for antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (APEI) series in representative stations for semi-humid zone (a), semi-humid and humid transitional zone (b), or humid zone (c) in Anhui Province
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图2安徽省半湿润区域(a)、半湿润湿润过渡区域(b)和湿润区域(c)代表站点2010年10月—2012年4月标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)对降水的响应
Figure2.Response of standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) to rainfall at representative stations for semi-humid zone (a), semi-humid and humid transitional zone (b), or humid zone (c) from Oct. 1, 2010 to Apr. 28, 2012 in Anhui Province
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图3安徽省2011年6月8日(旱情缓解前)、6月28日(旱情缓解后)标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)与0~20 cm土壤相对湿度旱涝监测对比(a: 6月8日土壤墒情; b: 6月8日SAPEI; c: 6月28日土壤墒情; d: 6月28日SAPEI)
Figure3.Comparison between standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and soil relative humidity of 0-20 cm layer on Jun. 8, 2011 (before drought relief) and Jun. 28, 2011 (after drought relief) in Anhui Province (a: soil relative humidity on Jun. 8; b: SAPEI on Jun. 8; c: soil relative humidity on Jun. 28; d: SAPEI on Jun. 28)
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图4安徽省冬小麦生长季旱涝积指数累年平均值及旱涝发生频率空间分布(a:年平均旱积指数; b:干旱频率; c:年平均渍积指数; d:涝渍频率)
Figure4.Spatial distribution of drought and waterlogging frequency and annual mean of accumulated index for winter wheat in Anhui Province (a: annual mean of accumulated drought index; b: drought frequency; c: annual mean of accumulated waterlogging index; d: waterlogging frequency)
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图5安徽省冬小麦生育期标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)累年平均值空间分布
Figure5.Spatial distribution of annual mean of standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) for winter wheat whole development stage in Anhui Province
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1标准化前期降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)等级标准、理论累积概率及相应的土壤相对湿度阈值
Table1.Grade' standard, theoretical cumulative probability and matching soil relative humidity threshold value for standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI)
| 等级序号 Grade ID | 等级名称 Grade name | SAPEI阈值 Threshold value of SAPEI | 累积概率 Cumulative probability (%) | 土壤相对湿度(RH) Soil relative humidity (%) |
| -4 | 严重干旱?Extremely drought | SAPEI≤-2.0 | 2.3 | RH≤35 |
| -3 | 重度干旱?Severe drought | -2.0 < SAPEI≤-1.5 | 4.4 | 35 < RH≤45 |
| -2 | 中等干旱?Moderate drought | -1.5 < SAPEI≤-1.0 | 9.2 | 45 < RH≤55 |
| -1 | 轻度干旱?Mild drought | -1.0 < SAPEI≤-0.5 | 15.0 | 55 < RH≤65 |
| 0 | 正常?Normal | -0.5 < SAPEI≤0.5 | 38.2 | 65 < RH≤80 |
| 1 | 轻度湿润?Mild wet | 0.5 < SAPEI≤1.0 | 15.0 | 80 < RH≤90 |
| 2 | 中等湿润?Moderate wet | 1.0 < SAPEI≤1.5 | 9.2 | 90 < RH≤95 |
| 3 | 重度湿润?Severe wet | 1.5 < SAPEI≤2.0 | 4.4 | 95 < RH≤100 |
| 4 | 严重湿润?Extremely wet | > 2.0 | 2.3 | RH≥100 |
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