李亚丽,
乔学忠
江西财经大学生态经济研究院/江西财经大学应用统计研究中心 南昌 330013
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41661113
江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地招标项目JD17042
详细信息
作者简介:黄和平, 主要从事循环经济和生态经济研究。E-mail:hphuang2004@163.com
中图分类号:F303.4计量
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出版历程
收稿日期:2017-10-26
录用日期:2017-12-09
刊出日期:2018-06-01
Evaluation and barrier factors analysis of agricultural circular economy based on IUOCE:A case study of Jiangxi Province
HUANG Heping,,LI Yali,
QIAO Xuezhong
Institute of Ecological Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics/Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Funds: the National Natural Science Foundation of China41661113
the Bidding Project of Key Research Base of Jiangxi Provincial Colleges' Humanities and Social Sciences of ChinaJD17042
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Corresponding author:HUANG Heping, E-mail: hphuang2004@163.com
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摘要
摘要:为明确江西省2000—2015年农业循环经济的发展水平和障碍因素，本研究基于农业生产投入—利用—产出—消费—效应（IUOCE）过程，选取2001—2016年统计年鉴的5类20个评价指标数据，运用熵值法确定指标权重计算农业循环经济发展水平；运用因子贡献度、指标偏离度、障碍度3个指标对其障碍因素进行诊断。结果表明：1）2000—2015年间江西省农业循环经济的利用指标、产出指标、消费指标和效应指标发展水平在总体上都呈上升趋势，且上升幅度为产出指标>效应指标>消费指标>利用指标，投入指标呈下降趋势；2）2000—2015年江西省农业循环经济增长在总体上呈上升趋势，年均增长率为3.43%，增长较为缓慢；3）2000—2008年影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素有化肥有效利用系数、化肥使用强度、人均耕地、森林覆盖率、农民人均纯收入；2009—2015年影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素为化肥使用强度、复种指数、有效灌溉系数、农作物播种面积；4）2000—2015年投入指标和利用指标是影响江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍因素，且投入指标和利用指标的障碍度值呈逐渐增大趋势；产出指标、消费指标和效应指标的障碍度值在总体上呈减小趋势。总之，江西省农业循环经济发展水平总体呈上升趋势，影响江西省农业循环经济发展的障碍因素逐渐减少且障碍度偏高。
关键词:农业循环经济/
IUOCE过程/
熵值法/
因子贡献度/
指标偏离度/
障碍度/
障碍因子
Abstract:Lots of researches have focused on development evaluation and obstacles analysis of agricultural circular economy from perspectives of economic and social development, resource input reducing, resources reusing and environment protection based on "3R" rules while neglecting the rural consumption. In this study we introduced rural resident consumption into the index system and used the method of input-utilization-output-consumption-effect (IUOCE) process of agricultural production to clarify the developmental level and obstacles of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province in 2000-2015. Five categories (input, utilization, output, consumption and effect) including 20 evaluation indicators composed the evaluation system, and the weights of indicators were determined with the entropy method. Based on the factor contribution degree, index deviation degree and obstruction degree, the obstacle indicators of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province were diagnosed. The results showed an upward trend in the utilization indicators, output indicators, consumption indicators and effect indicators of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015. The order of rising rate was output indicators > effect indicators > consumption indicators > utilization indicators. However, input indicators had a downward trend. The growth of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province had an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 3.43% which was a relatively low rate. The main obstacle indicators that affected the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province were fertilizer effective utilization factor, fertilizer use intensity, arable land area per capita, forest cover rate and net income per farmer in 2000-2008, while they were fertilizer use intensity, multiple cropping index, effective irrigation coefficient and sown area of crops in 2009-2015. The input and utilization indicators were the main obstacle factors that affected the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015. While the obstacle degrees of input indicators and utilization indicators gradually increased in trend, those of output indicators, consumer indicators and effect indicators generally decreased in 2000-2015. In summary, the developmental level of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province was overall in an upward trend, and the obstacle indicators became less but the obstacle degree became high.
Key words:Agricultural circular economy/
IUOCE process/
Entropy method/
Factor contribution degree/
Index deviation degree/
Barrier degree/
Barrier factor
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图1农业生产的投入—利用—产出—消费—效应(IUOCE)概念模型
Figure1.Input-use-output-consume-effect (IUOCE) conceptual model of agricultural production
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图2农业循环经济发展的评价技术路线
Figure2.Evaluation technical route of agricultural circular economy development
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图32000—2015年江西省农业循环经济发展水平分类指标评价值的变化
Figure3.Results of comprehensive evaluation of classification indexes of agricultural circular economy development level of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图4江西省2000—2015年农业循环经济综合发展趋势图
Figure4.Comprehensive development trend of agricultural circular economy of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1江西省农业循环经济发展评价指标
Table1.Evaluation indicators of agricultural circular economy development level in Jiangxi Province
| 分类指标 Classification index | 单项指标 Single indicator | 指标性质 Indicator nature | 权重 Weight |
| B1投入指标 Input indicators (0.238 1) | C1农机总动力 Agricultural machinery total power (kW) | 负Negative | 0.024 0 |
| C2农业劳动力 Agricultural labor force (million person) | 负Negative | 0.037 9 | |
| C3农作物播种面积 Sown area of crops (hm2) | 负Negative | 0.035 8 | |
| C4化肥使用强度 Fertilizer use intensity (kg·hm-2) | 负Negative | 0.111 1 | |
| C5沼气池个数 Biogas digester number (a) | 正Positive | 0.029 1 | |
| B2利用指标 Utilization indicators (0.238 1) | C6化肥有效利用系数 Fertilizer effective utilization factor (￥·t-1) | 正Positive | 0.063 7 |
| C7复种指数 Multiple cropping index (%) | 正Positive | 0.100 3 | |
| C8废弃物资源化水平 Waste resource utilization level | 正Positive | 0.032 9 | |
| C9秸秆综合利用率 Comprehensive utilization of straw (%) | 正Positive | 0.041 2 | |
| B3产出指标 Output indicators (0.187 8) | C10单位面积农业 GDP Agricultural GDP per unit area (￥·hm-2) | 正Positive | 0.052 5 |
| C11农民人均纯收入 Net income per farmer (￥·person-1) | 正Positive | 0.067 5 | |
| C12农林牧渔商品率 Primary industry commodity rate (￥·t-1) | 正Positive | 0.023 4 | |
| C13耕地产出率 Cultivated land yield (￥·hm-2) | 正Positive | 0.044 5 | |
| B4消费指标 Consumption indicators (0.130 4) | C14农民人均蔬菜消费量 Vegetables consumption per farmer (kg·person-1) | 正Positive | 0.024 7 |
| C15农民绿色出行支出 Green travel expenses per farmer (￥·person-1) | 正Positive | 0.058 8 | |
| C16农民人均住房面积 Housing area per farmer (m2·person-1) | 负Negative | 0.046 9 | |
| B5效应指标 Effect indicators (0.205 6) | C17森林覆盖率 Forest cover rate (%) | 正Positive | 0.061 9 |
| C18有效灌溉系数 Effective irrigation coefficient (%) | 正Positive | 0.054 2 | |
| C19水土流失综合治理系数 Soil erosion control coefficient (%) | 正Positive | 0.019 9 | |
| C20人均耕地 Arable land area per cap. (hm2·person-1) | 正Positive | 0.069 5 | |
| 正指标指该指标值越大, 所反映的循环状况越好, 负指标相反。The positive indicators refer to that the higher index value means better cycle status, the negative effect indicators is opposite. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表22000—2015年江西省农业循环经济发展的主要障碍度因素排序
Table2.Order of main obstacle indicators to the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015
| 序号No. | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| 1 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C6 | C6 | C6 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 | C4 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 10.91 | 10.82 | 10.86 | 12.51 | 14.02 | 14.90 | 18.88 | 21.49 | 16.76 | 18.78 | 20.62 | 22.78 | 23.50 | 28.52 | 31.23 | 34.45 | |
| 2 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C20 | C20 | C10 | C6 | C20 | C20 | C6 | C20 | C7 | C7 | C7 | C7 | C7 | C7 | C7 | C7 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 9.54 | 9.44 | 6.95 | 10.70 | 11.60 | 11.09 | 10.31 | 10.53 | 14.87 | 15.46 | 16.44 | 16.74 | 21.33 | 25.54 | 27.79 | 30.52 | |
| 3 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C17 | C17 | C17 | C20 | C6 | C6 | C20 | C6 | C18 | C18 | C18 | C18 | C18 | C18 | C18 | C18 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 9.16 | 9.15 | 9.18 | 9.93 | 11.19 | 10.94 | 10.77 | 10.31 | 6.97 | 7.45 | 8.15 | 8.25 | 9.96 | 10.80 | 11.77 | 12.50 | |
| 4 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C11 | C11 | C11 | C17 | C11 | C11 | C11 | C11 | C17 | C6 | C6 | C3 | C3 | C3 | C3 | C3 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 9.12 | 9.02 | 8.94 | 9.35 | 9.75 | 9.28 | 8.69 | 8.13 | 7.71 | 7.39 | 7.27 | 5.59 | 6.16 | 7.83 | 8.86 | 9.89 | |
| 5 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C9 | C10 | C4 | C11 | C10 | C17 | C17 | C17 | C11 | C11 | C11 | C17 | C17 | |||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 7.06 | 7.08 | 7.79 | 8.98 | 6.94 | 7.77 | 7.70 | 7.71 | 6.74 | 6.56 | 6.49 | 5.48 | 5.59 | ||||
| 6 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C10 | C9 | C10 | C10 | C9 | C10 | C10 | C10 | C6 | C20 | C11 | C1 | ||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 6.94 | 6.69 | 6.95 | 6.73 | 6.60 | 6.63 | 6.21 | 5.53 | 7.21 | 5.36 | 5.40 | 5.10 | |||||
| 7 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C2 | C2 | C2 | C9 | C15 | C9 | C9 | C9 | C3 | C20 | ||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 6.37 | 5.96 | 6.51 | 6.11 | 5.83 | 5.88 | 5.42 | 5.59 | 5.08 | ||||||||
| 8 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C3 | C13 | C9 | C13 | C2 | C15 | C2 | |||||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 6.14 | 5.89 | 6.35 | 5.90 | 5.25 | 5.20 | 5.04 | ||||||||||
| 9 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C13 | C15 | C13 | C15 | C2 | |||||||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 6.02 | 5.39 | 5.88 | 5.24 | 5.04 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | C8 | C8 | C15 | |||||||||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 5.63 | 5.23 | 5.31 |
下载: 导出CSV表32000—2015年江西省农业循环经济发展各分类指标的障碍度
Table3.Obstacle degrees of classification indexes to the development of agricultural circular economy in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2015
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | B5 | B3 | B2 | B2 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B2 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 23.01 | 24.64 | 22.95 | 25.26 | 26.74 | 27.94 | 31.14 | 33.50 | 28.91 | 31.16 | 35.50 | 37.33 | 37.70 | 40.28 | 44.01 | 50.00 |
| 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | B3 | B2 | B3 | B3 | B3 | B3 | B3 | B2 | B1 | B2 | B2 | B2 | B2 | B2 | B2 | B2 |
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 25.23 | 24.33 | 24.01 | 23.34 | 23.73 | 21.51 | 20.10 | 20.49 | 28.48 | 28.92 | 28.10 | 25.78 | 28.20 | 31.90 | 32.55 | 32.94 |
| 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | B2 | B5 | B1 | B1 | B2 | B2 | B5 | B5 | ||||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 24.34 | 22.44 | 22.05 | 21.34 | 22.62 | 20.93 | 20.27 | 20.02 | ||||||||
| 障碍因素Obstacle indicator | B5 | B5 | B5 | |||||||||||||
| 障碍度Obstacle degree (%) | 21.42 | 20.64 | 20.02 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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