Analysis of Suitable Irrigation Schemes with High-Production and High-Efficiency for Spring Maize to Adapt to Climate Change in the West of Northeast China
HUANG QiuWan,, LIU ZhiJuan,, YANG XiaoGuang, BAI Fan, LIU Tao, ZHANG ZhenTao, SUN Shuang, ZHAO JinCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
Abstract 【Objective】 The three provinces of Northeast China are not only an important grain production commodity in the country, but also the most sensitive areas to climate change. Thus, it is critical to clarify the suitable irrigation schemes for spring maize in arid areas of the west of Northeast China, which may be benefit on spring maize yield and its stability with higher water use efficiency under climate change. 【Method】 Based on the accumulated temperature and water deficit rate (k) during the growing season in 1981-2017, the potential planting areas of spring maize in Northeast China were divided into 10 climate zones (CZs). Five of them (k>0) in the west portion were selected as research areas. With meteorological data, experimental data, and soil data, maize yield potential was assessed by the well-calibrated and validated agricultural production system model (APSIM-Maize) in each CZ under different irrigation scenarios. According to the comprehensive analysis of both yield and water use efficiency, the suitable irrigation measures and the yield increment in different decades in each CZ were identified. 【Result】 (1) In the past 37 years, the water limitation on spring maize yield in CZ1 and CZ3 were less than that in three other CZs, with a range of 0-27% and 0-9%, respectively. Irrigation contributed little to yield increase, but it could improve the yield stability. The coefficient of yield variation reduced from 0.24 to 0.11 in CZ1, respectively, and reduced from 0.14 to 0.12 in CZ3, respectively. In CZ5, CZ7 and CZ9, more water limitation was found on maize yield, with a range of 27%-69%, 15%-35%, and 31%-51%, respectively. Moreover, irrigation also reduced the coefficients of yield variation by 0.39, 0.33 and 0.52 in the three CZs. The results indicated that irrigation could lead to a high and stable maize yield in the arid areas of Northeast China. (2) The suitable irrigation amount was 40 mm, which could produce high spring maize yield with high water use efficiency in CZ1 and CZ3. However, irrigation time had a little influence on the yield and water use efficiency of spring maize. Meanwhile, the suitable irrigation amounts for high yield and high water use efficiency were 60-80 mm in CZ5, CZ7 and CZ9, and the suitable irrigation times were from silking to 20 days after silking, jointing to 10 days after jointing and jointing to 10 days after jointing. (3) Compared with the rain-fed conditions, the yield increments varied in different CZs under suitable irrigation measures, which ranged from 33% to 86%, 24% to 46% and 50% to 77% in CZ5, CZ7 and CZ9, respectively. Lower yield increments were found in CZ1 and CZ3, with ranges of 5% to 43% and 9% to 19%, respectively. 【Conclusion】 The suitable irrigation amount for spring maize decreased with the latitude increased, and the suitable irrigation time delayed with the increased latitude. In addition, the suitable irrigation time in each CZ advanced because of warming climate. Compared with the rain-fed conditions, spring maize yield could be increased by 0-86% under suitable irrigation measures in each CZ. In particular, the yield increments in CZ5, CZ7 and CZ9 were greater than those in CZ1 and CZ3. Keywords:spring maize;irrigation measures;APSIM-Maize;water use efficiency;drought;climate zone
PDF (6043KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 黄秋婉, 刘志娟, 杨晓光, 白帆, 刘涛, 张镇涛, 孙爽, 赵锦. 东北三省西部春玉米适应气候变化的高产高效灌溉方案分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(21): 4470-4484 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.21.015 HUANG QiuWan, LIU ZhiJuan, YANG XiaoGuang, BAI Fan, LIU Tao, ZHANG ZhenTao, SUN Shuang, ZHAO Jin. Analysis of Suitable Irrigation Schemes with High-Production and High-Efficiency for Spring Maize to Adapt to Climate Change in the West of Northeast China[J]. Scientia Acricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(21): 4470-4484 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.21.015
0 引言
【研究意义】东北三省是我国重要的商品粮生产基地之一,根据中国农业统计年鉴数据,近10年(2008—2017年)东北三省玉米总产量约占东北三省粮食总产量的60.8%,约占全国玉米总产量的29.6%[1]。由此可见,玉米作为东北三省第一大粮食作物[2],其产量的提升对于全国粮食产量提升有重要意义。东北三省由于纬度较高,使其成为对气候变化影响最为敏感的地区之一[3]。已有研究表明,近50年来(1960—2010年)东北三省平均、最低及最高气温均呈明显上升趋势,平均气温每10年升高0.38℃[4,5],使得玉米生长季内积温明显增加;全年及玉米生长季内降水量均呈减少趋势且波动性增大[4,6-8],使该地区玉米生产的稳定性受到极大威胁[9,10],特别是西部水资源匮乏地区[11]。因此研究气候变化背景下,东北三省西部地区春玉米适宜灌溉措施,对于充分合理利用当地气候资源,应对气候变化,保障我国玉米高产稳产具有重要理论和现实意义。【前人研究进展】在不考虑适应措施的前提下,玉米生长发育阶段气温升高将使玉米生育期缩短,不利于玉米干物质积累和产量形成。LIU等[12]利用APSIM模型解析了气候变化对东北三省春玉米生长发育及产量形成的影响,研究结果表明,在不考虑适应措施条件下,气候变暖使东北三省春玉米全生育期每10年缩短2.3—4.8 d,生长季内平均气温每升高1℃,产量将下降4%—22%。然而,在气候变化背景下可以通过采取适当的适应措施有效减缓气候变化对作物的负面影响,如调整种植制度、更换品种、优化播期、改善水肥管理等。已有研究表明,气候变暖使得多熟种植北界北移,界线变化区域内调整种植制度可使作物单产增加25%—106%[13],从而使我国三大粮食作物总产增加2.2%[14]。在东北地区更换生育期较长的玉米品种可使产量增加13%—38%[12]。调整播期可使华北地区夏玉米产量提升2%—10%[15],东北地区春玉米产量提升4%[12]。【本研究切入点】优化水肥管理措施亦可有效应对气候变化对作物生产产生的负面影响[16,17,18]。由于气候、环境等的空间差异性和时间变异性,不同区域适宜的高产管理措施存在较大的差异。我国东北地区春玉米生长季内降水量呈现经向分布即由西北向东南逐渐递增,空间差异较大(变化范围为298—880 mm),且目前东北地区春玉米种植以雨养为主,如不采取相应措施,干旱造成的玉米减产程度增加且各地减产幅度变化复杂,特别是对于西部降水偏少区域,水分是限制该地区春玉米产量的主要因子[19]。为此针对东北西部地区不同气候区开展应对气候变化的适宜灌溉措施研究对保障该地区粮食高产稳产有重要意义。【拟解决的关键问题】本文将东北三省划分为10个气候区,选择西部地区5个水分亏缺较为明显的气候区为研究区域,利用验证后的农业生产系统模型(agricultural production system simulator,APSIM-Maize),明确不同气候区降水对春玉米产量的限制程度,结合玉米产量和水分利用效率提出不同气候区应对气候变化的高产高效适宜灌溉模式,为东北三省西部地区春玉米高产高效生产提供科学依据。
审图号:GS(2020)5270号 Fig. 1Climate zones and locations selected in the spring maize planting areas of Northeast China
Table 1 表1 表1各气候区代表站点春玉米生长季内气候资源特征(1981—2017年) Table 1Characteristics of climate resources during the spring maize growing season in 5 climate zones in Northeast China (1981- 2017)
气候区 Climate zone
站点 Station
≥10℃有效积温 Growth degree day ≥10℃
降水量 Precipitation
日照时数 Sunshine hour
37年平均值 37 year average (℃·d)
变化趋势 Trend (℃·d·(10a)-1)
37年平均值 37 year average (mm)
变化趋势 Trend (mm·(10a)-1)
37年平均值 37 year average (h)
变化趋势 Trend (h·(10a)-1)
第一气候区 CZ1
克山 Keshan
1602
66**
419
-3**
1415
-35**
第三气候区 CZ3
哈尔滨 Haerbin
1743
101**
399
-3**
946
-25**
第五气候区 CZ5
白城 Baicheng
1772
80**
412
-3**
856
40**
第七气候区 CZ7
阜新 Fuxin
1999
23**
362
-8**
1028
3**
第九气候区 CZ9
锦州 Jinzhou
2024
68**
430
-7**
952
19**
**表示通过P<0.01的显著性检验 ** indicates significantly different at P<0.01
A:播种到拔节,B:拔节到抽雄,C:抽雄到成熟,D:全生育期 Fig. 5Precipitation and water demand of spring maize during the period in 1981—2017 in each climate zone in the west of Northeast China
A: From sowing to jointing, B: From jointing to tasseling, C: From tasseling to mature, D: Entire period
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