,1,*A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China
LING Xiao-Xia1, ZHANG Zuo-Lin1, ZHAI Jing-Qiu2, YE Shu-Chun3, HUANG Jian-Liang,1,*通讯作者:
收稿日期:2018-08-19接受日期:2018-12-25网络出版日期:2019-01-07
| 基金资助: |
Received:2018-08-19Accepted:2018-12-25Online:2019-01-07
| Fund supported: |
作者简介 About authors
E-mail:lingxiaoxia@mail.hzau.edu.cn,Tel:027-87282213。
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凌霄霞, 张作林, 翟景秋, 叶树春, 黄见良. 气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展[J]. 作物学报, 2019, 45(3): 323-334. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.82044
LING Xiao-Xia, ZHANG Zuo-Lin, ZHAI Jing-Qiu, YE Shu-Chun, HUANG Jian-Liang.
政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC_AR5)指出, 1880—2012年全球地表平均温度升高约0.85℃, 过去3个10年历史时期全球地表温度已连续上升。气候系统的变化已对全球粮食生产造成了普遍影响, 未来气候变化严重影响作物产量的风险也可能增长[1]。
水稻是中国最主要的口粮作物, 我国65%以上的人口以稻米为主食[2]。据统计, 2012—2016年我国水稻年均播种面积为3.023×107 hm2, 占粮食作物年均播种面积(11.245×107 hm2)的26.9%; 水稻年均总产为2.059×108 t, 占粮食年均总产(6.072×108 t)的33.9%[3]。虽然过去30年来我国各县市水稻产量翻倍增长, 但近期有一半以上的县市出现了水稻增产停滞现象[4], 这可能与温度和太阳辐射等气候变化有关[5]。因此, 科学评估气候变化对水稻生产的影响并制定有效的应对策略比以往更显重要, 为突破水稻产量瓶颈提供气候影响的理论支持。
统计模型和作物生长模型是评估气候变化对农业生产影响中最常见且有效的方法[6,7,8,9]。因此, 本文主要对2000年以来基于这两类模型的水稻生产影响评估研究进行综述, 以期为气候变化对农业影响评估等工作提供参考。
1 气候变化对水稻生长环境的影响
1.1 气候资源变化特征
1980—2008年全球水稻生长季气温明显升高, 65%国家的增幅已超过年际变化的标准差, 中国部分稻区的增幅甚至大于年际变化标准差的2倍[10]。1961—2010年, 我国水稻生长季的最低气温和平均气温分别升高0.61℃和0.47℃, 气温日较差则降低0.38℃[11]。气温变化特征在水稻种植区、稻作类型和生育阶段间存在明显差异。总体而言, 北方稻区的升温幅度大于南方[12]; 早稻生长季平均气温和最高气温的增温速率大于晚稻[13]。长江中下游地区早稻和晚稻生殖生长期的增温趋势显著高于营养生长期, 单季稻则相反[14]。除气温的升高, 稻田水温也呈增加趋势, 但升高幅度较气温小[15]。与1960s相比, 2000s中国稻作区≥10℃总有效积温平均增加9.4%, 东北和西南稻区的增加幅度大于中部和南部[16]。从辐射资源来看, 主要稻作区2000s的日照时数比1960s减少11.9%[16], 太阳总辐射量降低9.4%[11], 这一现象在长江中下游单季稻生长季尤为明显[14]。从降水情况来看, 降水总量的长期变化趋势并不明显, 但平均降水强度增加约3.2%[11,16]。Ye等[17]研究表明, 气候变化降低了南方单、双季稻生产可利用的水热资源有效性, 这意味着当前气候变化对我国水稻生产的不利影响可能被低估。热量资源增加、辐射资源减少而降水量的时空不均一性加大, 这一系列变化对优化我国稻作制度的空间分布、提高水稻生产资源利用效率提出了新的挑战。
1.2 农业气象灾害变化特征
我国水稻生产所遭受的农业气象灾害种类多、地域性强、时期明显, 其中高温热害和低温冷害是最主要的气象灾害[18]。东北单季稻和南方晚稻抽穗开花期发生低温冷害的风险最大, 而高温热害则在长江流域单季稻孕穗期至灌浆期、南方早稻抽穗开花期风险最大[19]。1960—2009年间, 我国长江流域单季稻和南方早稻抽穗扬花期的高温胁迫积温每年增加0.12℃; 东北、长江流域、云贵高原单季稻和南方晚稻抽穗扬花期的低温胁迫积温每年减少0.21℃[19]。据农业气象灾害观测数据显示, 与前10年相比, 2000—2009年南方早稻孕穗期至成熟期发生高温胁迫的频次增加6~15次, 东南晚稻移栽期和孕穗期的高温胁迫增加14次和24次; 湖南和广西早稻移栽期发生低温冷害的频次增加59次, 单季稻和晚稻孕穗期至成熟期的低温冷害增加15~42次; 冷害的发生还表现出延迟型冷害减少而障碍型冷害增多的特征[20]。在干旱和洪涝灾害变化方面, 早稻、晚稻和单季稻抽穗期之后发生干旱的频次增加最多, 而单季稻和晚稻孕穗期遭受洪涝灾害的频次增加更显著[20]。为应对水稻生产当前所面临的灾变环境, 需加强防灾减灾技术的创新和应用。
2 气候变化对水稻生产的影响
评估正在发生的气候变化对水稻生产的影响, 有利于客观评价气候变化背景下水稻生产所面临的挑战, 为提出应对气候变化对策提供理论参考[10,21]。2.1 对水稻种植制度的影响
气候变暖导致热量资源增多, 有利于扩大农作物潜在种植面积, 增加粮食生产总能力。1980—2010年间, 气候变化使我国水稻适宜种植面积的比例增加约4个百分点, 东北地区增加幅度最大[22]。黑龙江省水稻潜在种植区随2000℃ d等值线北移约4个纬度[23], 实际集中种植区北移约1个纬度[24]。雨养条件下, 中国单季稻可种植北界到达黑龙江漠河县北部, 灌溉条件下, 单季稻可种植北界则可达我国最北端[25]。南方双季稻潜在种植边界北移34~60 km, 部分稻-麦两熟区可满足早、晚双季稻的光热需求[26,27]。气候变暖对我国北方稻区种植边界的影响较南方稻区明显。在气候适宜性方面, 双季稻低适宜种植面积有所减少, 中、高适宜种植面积有所增加[28]。近60年来, 我国水稻实际种植重心和产量重心分别向东北迁移约2个和3个纬度, 水稻种植面积的扩张和位置迁移与气温变化趋势高度一致[22,29-30]。这说明气候变化是驱动我国水稻种植区域调整的重要因素, 同时也体现了我国水稻生产快速适应气候变化的能力[31]。
2.2 对水稻生育进程的影响
生育期观测数据的趋势分析表明, 近30年来我国水稻播种和移栽期提前[14,32-35], 单季稻成熟期推后, 早、晚稻成熟期提前[14,33-35]。此外, 我国单季稻营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期延长[14,33-34,36], 晚稻主要生育阶段呈缩短趋势[14,32-33,37], 早稻生育期的变化并没有一致结论。水稻生育期的变化主要受气候、品种和栽培管理等因素影响。不考虑品种熟期变化和管理措施调整的情况下, 气候变暖可导致作物物候期提前和生育期缩短[38]。我国水稻营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期因气候变暖而分别缩短0.4~2.8 d 10 yr-1、0.1~1.3 d 10 yr-1和2.9~4.1 d 10 yr-1(或2.0~3.6 d ℃-1、1.1 d ℃-1和3.6~5.5 d ℃-1), 营养生长期的缩短比生殖生长期明显[32,36-37]。除温度外, 光周期、CO2浓度和非生物逆境等因素也可调节水稻的生长发育速度[33,39-40], 但在评估气候变化对水稻生育期的影响时, 很少考虑这些因素的作用。在适应气候变化过程中, 农民为充分利用热量资源或为避免单季稻在高温时间段抽穗扬花, 往往提早播种或改种生育期较长的品种[36,41], 这补偿了气候变化的不利影响, 使观测到的单季稻生育期延长。对晚稻而言, 为躲避成熟期低温而种植短生育期品种则可能加速生育期的缩短[32]。另有研究表明, 水稻成熟期受其分布地区、种植模式和移栽时间的影响比受温度的影响更大[34], 非气候因素对水稻生育期的影响可能大于气候因素[14,33,42]。
2.3 对水稻产量的影响
气候变化对水稻产量的影响是最受关注的内容, 前人主要研究了气候变化的影响趋势和程度、气候与非气候因素的贡献、关键气候因素及影响机制等。2.3.1 气候变化对水稻产量的影响 水稻生产是个复杂的自然-社会系统, 产量的长期变化同时掺杂了气候变化和人为因素信号。总体而言, 1980—2010年我国单季稻、早稻和晚稻的实测单产每10年增加0.69 (0.37~1.07) t hm-2(表1)。单就气候因素的影响而言, 近几十年的气候变化对我国水稻产量造成了不利影响。基于水稻生长模型的评估表明(表1), 1980—2010年气候平均态的变化使我国水稻单产减少0.25 (0.01~0.56) t hm-2 10 yr-1, 1961—2010年间则造成水稻单产减少约12.0% (11.5%~12.4%)。在气候变化过程中, 改种生育期长或者灌浆期长的品种可提高水稻产量[36,37], 种植抗逆性强的品种或提高栽培管理水平则降低了水稻产量的年际波动性[43]。品种改良和合理施肥等措施对水稻产量的正效应甚至超过了气候变化的负效应[44,45,46]。可见, 气候变化虽然严重制约了水稻产量的增长, 但我国水稻生产系统已通过适宜的方式来积极应对这种不利影响, 使水稻产量稳步提高。然而, 未来气候变化仍将严重制约技术进步对粮食生产的贡献[39], 增加农业技术创新的难度。
Table 1
表1
表1当前气候变化对中国水稻产量的影响
Table 1
| 稻作类型 Rice system | 研究区域 Region | 研究时段 Period | 变化趋势Change trend | 评估方法 Method | 参考文献 Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 统计模型a Statistical modela (t hm-210 yr-1) | 作物模型b Crop modelb (t hm-210 yr-1) | |||||
| 单季稻 Single rice | 全国4个站点 Four stations of China | 1981-2009 | 0.85 | -0.45 | RiceGrow | [36] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 东北 Northeast China | 1980-2010 | 1.07 | -0.01 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 华北 North China | 1980-2010 | 0.58 | -0.31 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| 早稻 Early rice | 3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment | 1981-2009 | 0.37 | -0.09 | RiceGrow | [37] |
| 晚稻 Late rice | 3个双季稻试验站点 Three stations of double rice experiment | 1981-2009 | 0.53 | -0.10 | RiceGrow | [37] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 华东 Eastern China | 1980-2010 | 0.61 | -0.56 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 华中 Central China | 1980-2010 | 0.63 | -0.27 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 西南 Southwest China | 1980-2010 | 0.86 | -0.26 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| 双季稻 Double rice | 华南 Southern China | 1980-2010 | 0.75 | -0.17 | ORYZA2000 | [5] |
| — | 平均 Average | 1980-2010 | 0.69 | -0.25 | — | — |
| 水稻 Rice | 全国 China | 1961-2010 | — | -11.5% | CERES-Rice | [11] |
| 水稻 Rice | 全国 China | 1961-2010 | — | -12.4% (-4.2%) | CERES-Rice | [54] |
| — | 平均 Average | 1961-2010 | — | -12.0% | — | — |
| 水稻 Rice | 全国 China | 1981-2010 | — | (2%) | EPIC, DSSAT | [45] |
| 水稻 Rice | 全国 China | 1980-2009 | — | (4.4%) | Agro-C | [44] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 全国 China | 1980-2009 | — | (3.4%) | Agro-C | [44] |
| 早稻 Early rice | 双季稻区 Double rice region | 1980-2009 | — | (4.8%) | Agro-C | [44] |
| 晚稻 Late rice | 双季稻区 Double rice region | 1980-2009 | — | (7.8%) | Agro-C | [44] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 东北 Northeast China | 1981-2009 | 1.01% to 3.29% | — | Panel model | [14] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River | 1981-2009 | -9.68% to-7.14% | — | Panel model | [14] |
| 早稻 Early rice | 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River | 1981-2009 | -0.59% to 2.40% | — | Panel model | [14] |
| 晚稻 Late rice | 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River | 1981-2009 | 8.38% to 9.56% | — | Panel model | [14] |
| 水稻 Rice | 南方稻区 Southern China | 温度升高1℃ Elevated temperature 1℃ | -3.48% to -2.52% | — | 经济-气候模型 Economy-Climate model | [103] |
| 双季稻 Double rice | 南方稻区 Southern China | 1980-2008 | -0.17% yr-1 | — | Statistical model | [94] |
| 稻作类型 Rice system | 研究区域 Region | 研究时段 Period | 变化趋势Change trend | 评估方法 Method | 参考文献 Reference | |
| 统计模型a Statistical modela (t hm-210 yr-1) | 作物模型b Crop modelb (t hm-210 yr-1) | |||||
| 单季稻 Single rice | 东北 Northeast China | 1980-2008 | 0.59% yr-1 | — | Statistical model | [94] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 云贵高原 Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau | 1980-2008 | 0.34% yr-1 | — | Statistical model | [94] |
| 单季稻 Single rice | 四川盆地 Sichuan Basin | 1980-2008 | -0.29% yr-1 | — | Statistical model | [94] |
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气候变化因素对我国水稻生产的影响又与地区和稻作类型有关。基于统计模型与生长模型的结果表明(表1), 在气候长期变化影响下, 华北、华东、华中(长江中下游单季稻)和西南(四川盆地单季稻)地区水稻、南方双季稻减产显著, 长江中下游晚稻、东北和云贵高原单季稻产量有所增加。极端天气是造成产量损失的另一重要原因, 其对水稻产量的影响可能大于气候要素的长期变化和年际波动[47,48]。我国近30年的极端温度胁迫导致全国灌溉稻产量损失约6.1%, 四川盆地单季稻、长江中下游单季稻、南方早稻因此造成的产量损失显著上升[49]。此外, 气候资源的合理配置有利于提高水稻产量和光、温资源利用效率[50], 资源配置不合理的年份则可造成严重的产量损失[51]。另有研究表明, 气溶胶浓度影响入射的太阳总辐射以及散射辐射所占的比例, 重度大气污染对水稻产量将造成不利影响[52,53]。与不利的大气环境相反, 大气CO2浓度升高有利于水稻增产[54], 且晚稻产量对CO2浓度升高的响应大于早稻和单季稻[44,45]。CO2浓度升高的增产效应在很大程度上减少了气候变化造成的产量损失, 近30年来甚至基本补偿了气候变化造成的减产(表1)。
2.3.2 影响水稻产量的关键气候因素 影响水稻产量的关键气候因素, 是制定气候变化应对策略的重要依据。然而, 因研究区域气候的复杂性、气候要素的自相关性以及稻作类型等原因, 使该问题尚未得出统一结论。研究表明, 热带地区水稻产量下降的主要原因是最低气温的升高[55], 而中国部分稻作区的水稻产量却与温度呈正相关[56,57]。在温度较低的华北地区, 气温日较差减小则是水稻产量下降的首要原因[11]。另有研究认为, 我国水稻产量对太阳辐射的长期变化趋势比温度更敏感[54,56,58], 而作物产量的年际波动则更多地由降水量和太阳辐射变异以及温度胁迫解释[12,18,59-60]。此外, 温度、辐射和降水量等气候要素存在自相关性, 忽略该问题得出的结论可能是错误的[12,56,61], 影响产量变化的关键因素或许不应归结为单个气候要素[59,62]。
2.3.3 气候变化影响水稻产量的机制 目前, 水稻响应气候变化的机制研究主要集中在高温、干旱等非生物逆境方面[63]。气候变暖一方面缩短水稻生育期, 另一方面造成光合作用减少和呼吸作用增加[64]。水稻孕穗期高温主要影响花器官发育, 如影响颖花分化和退化、缩短颖花长度、抑制花药充实[65,66]; 抽穗扬花期高温主要伤害正在开放的颖花, 影响花粉活力、数量以及颖花授粉受精过程, 增加空、秕粒率[67,68,69,70]; 灌浆结实期高温使灌浆过程提早结束, 造成粒长和粒宽减小、粒重下降[67,71]。白天高温造成水稻产量降低最突出的原因是结实率下降, 夜间高温对结实率、每穗颖花数、粒重和生物量的影响相当[64]。水稻遭受低温胁迫时, 因生殖生长期绒毡层变厚和营养失衡而使花粉失去育性, 还可能导致籽粒败育[72]。弱光逆境则降低了植株净光合速率, 使干物质生产和积累速度减慢, 干物质分配到穗部的比例下降[73]。干旱胁迫下, 叶片气孔导度的下降使植株蒸腾速率减慢, 胞间CO2通量的减小则限制了光合作用。蒸腾速率的下降又减少了植株对营养物质的吸收、升高了冠层温度, 进一步导致呼吸消耗增多以及存储器官建成的时间缩短[63]。大气CO2浓度升高时, 叶片气孔导度和密度均呈下降趋势, 造成蒸腾作用降低。但此时冠层光合作用的增加将促进有机物累积[74], 且地下部干物质的增加幅度比地上部更显著[75]。当多种非生物逆境同时发生时, 对植物的影响往往不是单因子影响效应的简单叠加, 需要在复杂环境条件下研究其影响机制[74,75,76,77]。
3 未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响
3.1 对水稻生产的有利影响
与2000s相比, 预计2030s、2050s、2070s我国水稻生长季日均温分别增加0.8~2.7℃、1.7~3.4℃、2.3~4.1℃[78]。我国一年两熟带和一年三熟带的潜在边界将持续北移[79,80], 21世纪末三熟制占种植制度总面积的潜在比例最大可达到75.0%[81]。未来单季稻和双季稻潜在种植边界也将继续北移。与1961—1990年相比, 2080s我国单季稻和双季稻可扩种面积约为5.0×105 hm2和6.2×106 hm2 [82]。热量资源增多使作物潜在生长季延长, 大大增加了水稻生长季节弹性[15,79], 有利于水稻生产灵活地制定应对气候变化策略。3.2 对水稻生产的不利影响
IPCC第五次评估报告指出, 气候变化和极端气候事件对作物产量的不利影响比较普遍[1]。若未来气温升高1~3℃, 我国水稻生育期缩短的概率为100%[83]。当温度升高1.5℃和2.0℃时, 我国双季稻的生育期将缩短4%~8%和6%~10%, 单季稻的生育期约缩短2%[84]。一项集合网格作物模型、单点作物模型、统计模型和观测试验的研究表明, 气温每升高1℃可能导致全球水稻产量平均下降3.2%[85]。到21世纪末, 温度持续上升可能使全球水稻产量减少3.3%~10.8% (表2)。未来气候变化造成我国水稻产量变化幅度为-40.2%~6.3%, 平均减产10.7%, 且空间差异明显(表2)。若考虑CO2浓度升高对产量的影响, 其对气候变化造成的减产有一定补偿作用(表2)。但这种补偿作用在某些情景和地区仍无法抵消增温幅度过高的负效应, 也不能降低水稻产量的年际变率[82-83,86]。此外, 降水和温度变率增大可能导致低产年出现频次增多, 减产幅度增加[82,87]。水稻产量减少和不稳定性增加最明显的区域是四川盆地、长江流域和黄淮海平原, 这些地区或将成为水稻响应未来气候变化的高敏感区[82]。研究还表明, 若能采用合理的应对策略, 可以有效减缓气候变化对水稻产量的不利影响(表2)。未来可以从培育强抗逆性品种和高效利用CO2浓度品种、优化栽培管理和抗逆栽培技术、调整播期和种植面积等方面, 加强水稻生产应对气候变化措施的研究。Table 2
表2
表2未来气候变化对水稻产量的可能影响
Table 2
| 稻作类型 Rice system | 研究区域 Region | 研究时段 Period | 基准时段 Baseline | 气候情景a Climate scenarioa | 气候模式b Climate modelb | 作物模型 Crop model | 变化趋势c Change trendc | 文献来源 Reference | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 气候变化 Climate change (%) | CO2效应 CO2 effect (%) | 适应策略 Adaptation (%) | CO2效应+适应策略 CO2 effect + Adaptation (%) | ||||||||
| 单季稻 Single rice | 中国东部 Eastern China | 2020s, 2050s, 2080s | 1961-1990 | A1FI, B1 | 5 GCMs | MCWLA-Rice | -15.8 (-29.4 to -3.7) | 8.4 (0.7 to 13.2) | — | — | [92] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 长江中下游 Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River | 2021-2050 | 1961-1990 | A2, B2 | PRECIS RCM | ORYZA2000 | -15.1 | -5.5 | — | — | [86] |
| 早稻、单季稻 Early and single rice | 南方稻区 Southern China | 2071-2090 | 1961-1990 | B2 | PRECIS RCM | CERES-Rice | -3.8 (-7.0 to -0.25) | 8.6 (5.0 to 20.0) | — | — | [87] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 全国6个站点 Six stations of China | 2001-2100 | 1961-1990 | ET1℃,2℃,3℃ | 5 GCMs | CERES-Rice | -20.4 (-40.2 to -6.1) | -4.8 (-19.3 to 0.18) | — | — | [83] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 全国 China | 2020s, 2050s, 2080s | 1961-1990 | A2, B2 | PRECIS RCM | CERES-Rice | -10.8 (-26.2 to 6.3) | 3.5 (-5.6 to 15.8) | — | — | [82] |
| 早稻、晚稻 Early and late rice | 双季稻区 Double rice region | — | 1961-1990 | A(ET1.7℃) | DKRZ OPYC(LSG) | 双季稻生长动力模拟模型 Dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice | -15.2 (-19.0 to -11.2) | — | 8.7 (-7.0 to 23.1) | — | [104] |
| 水稻 Rice | 全国 China | 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s | 2009 | A2, B2 | PRECIS RCM | CERES-Rice | — | 10.5 (6.0-18.0) | — | 15.8 (11.0 to 21.0) | [105] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 全国 China | 2011-2050 | 2000-2009 | A2, B2 | PRECIS RCM | Agro-C | -3.3 | 20.9 | 3.2 | 28.6 | [106] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 全国 China | 2030s, 2050s, 2070s | 2000s | RCP4.5 | 17 GCMs | CERES-Rice | — | -0.9 (-11.0 to 11.0) | 4.9 (1.0 to 11.0) | — | [78] |
| 单、双季稻 Single and double rice | 全国 China | 2106-2115 | 2006-2015 | ET1.5℃, 2.0℃ | 4 GCMs | MCWLA-Rice | -0.9 (-0.7, 2.4) | 6.8 (4.1, 9.4) | — | — | [84] |
| — | 平均 Average | — | — | — | — | — | -10.7 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 22.2 | — |
| 水稻 Rice | 全球 World | 2070-2100 | 1981-2010 | RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 | 11-22 ESMs | 7 Global grid-based models | -3.3, -5.5, -6.8, -10.8 | — | — | — | [85] |
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值得注意的是, 越来越多的影响评估关注了极端天气事件的变化及其对水稻生产的可能影响[84,88-90]。2000s到2050s, 全球水稻生殖生长期遭受极端高温胁迫的面积将由8%增加到27%[91]。我国水稻生产遭受高温胁迫的概率、强度和面积也将增加, 这可能抵消热量资源增多及低温危害减少带来的正效应[92,93,94]。若温度升高1.5℃和2.0℃, 热胁迫可能导致我国水稻产量分别下降2%和5%[84]。四川盆地和长江中下游流域或将成为高温热害高发区, 东北、云贵高原和华东稻区经历严重低温危害的风险比其他地区大[89,94]。未来降水变率增加则可能导致季节性干旱和暴雨发生频次增多[95], 在江苏等东部地区, 极端降水事件对水稻产量的影响可能比极端温度事件更显著[88]。此外, 气温升高导致参考作物蒸散量普遍增加, 我国西南地区将经历湿润指数明显减小的干旱化过程[79]。
4 问题与展望
气候变化已导致我国水稻生长季气候条件的改变, 对水稻种植面积、气候适宜性、生长发育、产量等造成一定影响。现有的评估工作是在当前科学认知和技术水平上的有益尝试, 未来还有许多亟待解决的问题需要进一步深入探索。4.1 加强气候变化影响机制的研究及其在影响评估中的应用
水稻响应气候变化的机制是气候变化影响评估的重要理论基础。前人主要研究了高、低温胁迫和干旱胁迫等极端天气事件的影响, 对增温、CO2浓度升高等气候平均态变化的影响研究较少; 对水稻光合作用、白天蒸腾等生理过程的研究较多, 对夜间蒸腾等其他生理生化过程的研究还比较薄弱; 对单因子胁迫的影响机制研究较多, 对多因子胁迫、非生物逆境与高CO2浓度互作等复杂环境的影响机制研究较少[63,76-77]。更值得注意的是, 基于作物响应气候变化机制来改进生理生态模型的研究远远滞后于机制研究本身, 需要设计专门的田间试验并将试验结果与模型改进紧密联系起来[63]。重点关注叶片光合模型参数在环境变化中的适应性[96]、植株氮素动态的响应等[97]受环境变化影响较大的生理生态过程, 使水稻响应气候变化的机制研究在区域尺度的影响评估中发挥更充分的作用。4.2 减小气候变化影响评估的不确定性
当前气候变化农业影响评估的结果还存在较大的不确定性, 阻碍了应对气候变化策略的科学制定[59,98]。目前处理不确定性的方法主要有敏感性分析、模型对比、集合模拟和概率风险评估等[83,98], 这些方法对减少影响评估的不确定性以及客观认识气候变化的影响仍显不足。未来迫切需要发展适应非生物逆境的作物生长模型、减小排放情景的不确定性以及改进影响评估方法来获得更可靠的预估结果。4.3 改进气候变化影响评估的方法和技术
应用统计模型进行评估时需注意非气候因素的影响及其与气候因素的互作、气候要素的自相关性以及选择合适的时空研究尺度等[62]。基于作物生长模型的评估则需注意模型参数不稳定性、与气候模式的空间匹配性、建模机制不完善等问题。此外, 多方法融合也是改进气候变化影响评估方法的重要发展方向[99], 如统计模型、作物生长模型与观测试验的集合评估[85], 作物生长模型与社会-经济模型的组合应用[100], 作物生长模型与卫星遥感、无人机监测及作物表型观测相结合等, 有助于提高评估结果的可信度和系统性。4.4 注重气候变化对水稻生产影响评估的系统性
将农业生产系统作为有机整体来全面评估气候变化的影响和适应是有待发展的重要方向[101,102]。如加强评估气候变化对稻米品质、病虫害发生、生产环境代价的影响, 加强评估适应措施、社会-经济因素对减缓气候变化影响的作用[100], 加强评估多气候要素、CO2浓度升高、大气污染、气候波动和极端天气事件对水稻生产的综合影响。参考文献 原文顺序
文献年度倒序
文中引用次数倒序
被引期刊影响因子
[本文引用: 2]
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0275.2005.02.002URL [本文引用: 1]
在分析水稻生产历史、粮食消费和国际贸易的基础上,指出水稻在我国粮食生产中具重要地位,水稻的稳定增产对保障国家食物安全起基础作用;在对国内外水稻单产水平进行比较的基础上,分析了我国水稻的生产潜力,提出水稻单产还有很大的提高空间,可以满足我国未来对稻谷的需求;探讨了确保粮食安全的水稻发展对策。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0275.2005.02.002URL [本文引用: 1]
在分析水稻生产历史、粮食消费和国际贸易的基础上,指出水稻在我国粮食生产中具重要地位,水稻的稳定增产对保障国家食物安全起基础作用;在对国内外水稻单产水平进行比较的基础上,分析了我国水稻的生产潜力,提出水稻单产还有很大的提高空间,可以满足我国未来对稻谷的需求;探讨了确保粮食安全的水稻发展对策。
URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0116430URLPMID:4332688 [本文引用: 1]
Abstract Increasing demand for food, driven by unprecedented population growth and increasing consumption, will keep challenging food security in China. Although cereal yields have substantially improved during the last three decades, whether it will keep thriving to meet the increasing demand is not known yet. Thus, an integrated analysis on the trends of crop yield and cultivated area is essential to better understand current state of food security in China, especially on county scale. So far, yield stagnation has extensively dominated the main cereal-growing areas across China. Rice yield is facing the most severe stagnation that 53.9% counties tracked in the study have stagnated significantly, followed by maize (42.4%) and wheat (41.9%). As another important element for production sustainability, but often neglected is the planted area patterns. It has been further demonstrated that the loss in productive arable land for rice and wheat have dramatically increased the pressure on achieving food security. Not only a great deal of the planted areas have stagnated since 1980, but also collapsed. 48.4% and 54.4% of rice- and wheat-growing counties have lost their cropland areas to varying degrees. Besides, 27.6% and 35.8% of them have retrograded below the level of the 1980s. The combined influence (both loss in yield and area) has determined the crop sustainable production in China to be pessimistic for rice and wheat, and consequently no surprise to find that more than half of counties rank a lower level of production sustainability. Therefore, given the potential yield increase in wheat and maize, as well as substantial area loss of rice and wheat, the possible targeted adaptation measures for both yield and cropping area is required at county scale. Moreover, policies on food trade, alongside advocation of low calorie diets, reducing food loss and waste can help to enhance food security.
DOI:10.1111/gcb.12428URLPMID:24130084 [本文引用: 1]
Climatic or technological ceilings could cause yield stagnation. Thus, identifying the principal reasons for yield stagnation within the context of the local climate and socio-economic conditions are essential for informing regional agricultural policies. In this study, we identified the climatic and technological ceilings for seven rice-production regions in China based on yield gaps and on a yield trend pattern analysis for the period 1980–2010. The results indicate that 54.9% of the counties sampled experienced yield stagnation since the 1980. The potential yield ceilings in northern and eastern China decreased to a greater extent than in other regions due to the accompanying climate effects of increases in temperature and decreases in radiation. This may be associated with yield stagnation and halt occurring in approximately 49.8–57.0% of the sampled counties in these areas. South-western China exhibited a promising scope for yield improvement, showing the greatest yield gap (30.6%), whereas the yields were stagnant in 58.4% of the sampled counties. This finding suggests that efforts to overcome the technological ceiling must be given priority so that the available exploitable yield gap can be achieved. North-eastern China, however, represents a noteworthy exception. In the north-central area of this region, climate change has increased the yield potential ceiling, and this increase has been accompanied by the most rapid increase in actual yield: 1.02 ton ha611 per decade. Therefore, north-eastern China shows a great potential for rice production, which is favoured by the current climate conditions and available technology level. Additional environmentally friendly economic incentives might be considered in this region.
DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.1999.02.015URL [本文引用: 1]
着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展，其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验；冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法；数值模式研究，特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后，指出了存在的问题，以及研究展望。
DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.1999.02.015URL [本文引用: 1]
着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展，其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验；冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法；数值模式研究，特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后，指出了存在的问题，以及研究展望。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.02.015URL [本文引用: 1]
模型模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径,得到了广泛关注和应用。本文着重介绍了利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业生产影响的发展过程,即从最初通过人为改变气候参数模拟气候变化对农业的可能影响,到与气候情景结合模拟未来气候变化对农业的可能影响及近年来与其它模型结合综合模拟未来气候变化对农业的影响,并通过对气候变化农业影响模型模拟研究中经验模型与机理模型、站点尺度与区域尺度、确定性气候情景与概率气候情景几个关键问题的评述,指出了存在的问题及未来发展趋势。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.02.015URL [本文引用: 1]
模型模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径,得到了广泛关注和应用。本文着重介绍了利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业生产影响的发展过程,即从最初通过人为改变气候参数模拟气候变化对农业的可能影响,到与气候情景结合模拟未来气候变化对农业的可能影响及近年来与其它模型结合综合模拟未来气候变化对农业的影响,并通过对气候变化农业影响模型模拟研究中经验模型与机理模型、站点尺度与区域尺度、确定性气候情景与概率气候情景几个关键问题的评述,指出了存在的问题及未来发展趋势。
URL [本文引用: 1]
URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1212.2007.06.046URL [本文引用: 1]
近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,气候变化的影响评价研究越来越受到各国科学家和政府的重视,特别是对农业的影响评估研究更为重要。文章主要对观测和模拟在气候变化对农业的影响评价研究中的应用进展进行了介绍,并对该领域未来的研究方向进行了展望,认为加强研究极端天气气候事件的影响;发展农业影响评价集成模式;进一步利用区域气候模式嵌套农业影响评价模式对区域气候变化的影响进行评价,并对其影响的不确定性进行评估。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1212.2007.06.046URL [本文引用: 1]
近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,气候变化的影响评价研究越来越受到各国科学家和政府的重视,特别是对农业的影响评估研究更为重要。文章主要对观测和模拟在气候变化对农业的影响评价研究中的应用进展进行了介绍,并对该领域未来的研究方向进行了展望,认为加强研究极端天气气候事件的影响;发展农业影响评价集成模式;进一步利用区域气候模式嵌套农业影响评价模式对区域气候变化的影响进行评价,并对其影响的不确定性进行评估。
DOI:10.1126/science.1204531URLPMID:21551030 [本文引用: 2]
Abstract Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.
DOI:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60803-0URL [本文引用: 4]
Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a significant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which confirmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12–14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the significant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China's main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identified as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
DOI:10.1002/jsfa.5523URLPMID:22190019 [本文引用: 3]
BACKGROUND: Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008.RESULTS: Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant.CONCLUSION: Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright 2011 Society of Chemical Industry
DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.12.010URL [本文引用: 1]
基于长江中游地区50个气象台站自1960年以来的历年地面气象观测资料,分1960—2009及1960—1984、1985—2009年3个不同时间段,分温度生长期、早稻生长期、晚稻生长期分别分析了热量、光照、降水等农业的变化特征,并讨论对双季稻生产的可能影响。1960—2009年,该地区温度生长期平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温的平均增速分别为0.08℃/10 a、0.09℃/10 a、0.07℃/10 a,≥10℃活动积温的平均增速为66.3℃/10 a,日照时数的平均减速为31.7 h/10 a,降水量的平均增速为3.7 mm/10 a。表现为温度上升、积温增加、温度生长期延长、日照时数减少、降水量微弱增加的变化特征。温度升高、积温增加可能导致发育速度加快、生育期缩短、病虫害加重,日照时数减少可能影响叶片光合及产量。早稻生长期的平均气温、≥10℃活动积温的增速分别为0.20℃/10 a、48.9℃/10 a,晚稻生长期分别为0.09℃/10 a、14.6℃/10 a,早稻和晚稻生长期间日照时数的下降速率分别为18.6 h/10 a、42.7 h/10 a,降水量的增加速率分别为1.9 mm/10 a、8.7 mm/10 a,表现为升温速率早稻大于晚稻,日照时数下降速率晚稻大于早稻,降水量增加速率晚稻大于早稻。早稻期间升温和积温增加明显可能有利于早稻提前播种、选用生育期稍长的品种、提高产量潜力和产量,晚稻期间升温不明显且日照时数下降则可能不利于群体光合和产量形成,影响其产量潜力和产量。区域中的江汉平原、洞庭湖平原等基础条件好的地区,其热量、日照、降水同步增加,其他地区则表现为热量、降水增加,但日照时数下降,要充分发挥其基础条件好与气候资源丰富且同步增加等优势,发展高效规模化生产,增强稻谷生产能力。
DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.12.010URL [本文引用: 1]
基于长江中游地区50个气象台站自1960年以来的历年地面气象观测资料,分1960—2009及1960—1984、1985—2009年3个不同时间段,分温度生长期、早稻生长期、晚稻生长期分别分析了热量、光照、降水等农业的变化特征,并讨论对双季稻生产的可能影响。1960—2009年,该地区温度生长期平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温的平均增速分别为0.08℃/10 a、0.09℃/10 a、0.07℃/10 a,≥10℃活动积温的平均增速为66.3℃/10 a,日照时数的平均减速为31.7 h/10 a,降水量的平均增速为3.7 mm/10 a。表现为温度上升、积温增加、温度生长期延长、日照时数减少、降水量微弱增加的变化特征。温度升高、积温增加可能导致发育速度加快、生育期缩短、病虫害加重,日照时数减少可能影响叶片光合及产量。早稻生长期的平均气温、≥10℃活动积温的增速分别为0.20℃/10 a、48.9℃/10 a,晚稻生长期分别为0.09℃/10 a、14.6℃/10 a,早稻和晚稻生长期间日照时数的下降速率分别为18.6 h/10 a、42.7 h/10 a,降水量的增加速率分别为1.9 mm/10 a、8.7 mm/10 a,表现为升温速率早稻大于晚稻,日照时数下降速率晚稻大于早稻,降水量增加速率晚稻大于早稻。早稻期间升温和积温增加明显可能有利于早稻提前播种、选用生育期稍长的品种、提高产量潜力和产量,晚稻期间升温不明显且日照时数下降则可能不利于群体光合和产量形成,影响其产量潜力和产量。区域中的江汉平原、洞庭湖平原等基础条件好的地区,其热量、日照、降水同步增加,其他地区则表现为热量、降水增加,但日照时数下降,要充分发挥其基础条件好与气候资源丰富且同步增加等优势,发展高效规模化生产,增强稻谷生产能力。
DOI:10.1111/gcb.12250URLPMID:23661287 [本文引用: 7]
Based on the crop trial data during 1981–2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981–2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981–2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by 610.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38–9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14–9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01–3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends.
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.07.009URL [本文引用: 2]
A model for the energy balance of rice fields was improved by using meteorological and geographical data to simulate the changes in the water temperature resulting from plant growth. The average climate of Japan during the period 1971–2000 was used as a baseline. The improved model was used to assess the possible effects of the future climate (2081–2100) on agricultural practices at a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km 2. The most notable result from the simulations is that the water temperature during the growing season for the future climate increased by approximately 1.6–2.0 °C throughout the country. This increase can lead to a remarkable northward shift of the isochrones of safe transplanting dates for rice seedlings. This means that the rice cultivation period will be prolonged by approximately 25–30 days. Such an increase in the thermal resources allows greater flexibility of variation in the cropping season as compared with that at present; thus, resulting in a reduction in the frequency of cool summer damage in the northern districts. The area of safe cultivation expands to the northernmost region, if all the forests in the climatically suitable areas can be converted into rice fields. Conversely, climate warming will also induce high-temperature stress in rice plants in one-fifth of the current total cultivation area. The current agricultural practices and rice cultivars used in these areas will inevitably require altering to prevent the projected heat stress during summer.
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2011.07.042URLMagsci [本文引用: 3]
中国地域广大，水稻生产气候资源分布的时空差异给中国水稻生产带来了较高的不确定性。基于中国主要稻作区333个气象台站1961~1970年(1960s)和1996~2005年(2000s) 2个10 a历史时期的逐日气象资料，使用ANUSPLIN软件包生成栅格化的逐日气象要素表面值；然后基于栅格逐年计算并比较了2个历史时期水稻生育期内主要气候资源（总日照时数、总有效积温、平均气温日较差、总降水量、总降水天数和平均降水强度）的时空分布特征。结果表明，同1960s相比，2000s中国主要稻作区水稻生育期内的平均总日照时数减少了11.93%，东北、西南地区减少的幅度小于中部和南方；平均总有效积温增加了9.40%，东北和西南地区增加的幅度大于中部和南方，但是在中部和南方存在总有效积温减少的地区；平均气温日较差减少了4.86%，东北和西南地区减少的幅度大于中部和南方，但在中部和南方地区亦存在部分增加的区域；总降水量增加了1.59%，平均降水强度增加了3.22%，平均降水强度的变化率在空间分布上与总降水量基本一致，东北地区和宁夏回族自治区总降水量和平均降水强度呈降低的趋势，而中部和南方大部分地区呈增加的趋势；平均总降水天数减少了1.60%，东北地区和中部地区的降低幅度要小于南方沿海地区。该研究结果为进一步分析中国主要稻作区的水稻增产潜力及增产途径提供了技术支撑。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2011.07.042URLMagsci [本文引用: 3]
中国地域广大，水稻生产气候资源分布的时空差异给中国水稻生产带来了较高的不确定性。基于中国主要稻作区333个气象台站1961~1970年(1960s)和1996~2005年(2000s) 2个10 a历史时期的逐日气象资料，使用ANUSPLIN软件包生成栅格化的逐日气象要素表面值；然后基于栅格逐年计算并比较了2个历史时期水稻生育期内主要气候资源（总日照时数、总有效积温、平均气温日较差、总降水量、总降水天数和平均降水强度）的时空分布特征。结果表明，同1960s相比，2000s中国主要稻作区水稻生育期内的平均总日照时数减少了11.93%，东北、西南地区减少的幅度小于中部和南方；平均总有效积温增加了9.40%，东北和西南地区增加的幅度大于中部和南方，但是在中部和南方存在总有效积温减少的地区；平均气温日较差减少了4.86%，东北和西南地区减少的幅度大于中部和南方，但在中部和南方地区亦存在部分增加的区域；总降水量增加了1.59%，平均降水强度增加了3.22%，平均降水强度的变化率在空间分布上与总降水量基本一致，东北地区和宁夏回族自治区总降水量和平均降水强度呈降低的趋势，而中部和南方大部分地区呈增加的趋势；平均总降水天数减少了1.60%，东北地区和中部地区的降低幅度要小于南方沿海地区。该研究结果为进一步分析中国主要稻作区的水稻增产潜力及增产途径提供了技术支撑。
DOI:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60403-7URL [本文引用: 1]
The spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrothermal resources in southern rice production area of China have changed under the background of climate change, and this change would affect the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources during local rice growing period. According to the cropping system subdivision in southern rice production area of China during 1980s, this study used climate data from 254 meteorological stations and phonological data from 168 agricultural observation stations in the south of China, and adopted 6 international evaluation indices about the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of hydrothermal resources during the growing period of single cropping rice system and double cropping rice system for 16 planting zones in the whole study area. The results showed that: in southern rice production area of China, the effectiveness of thermal resources of single cropping rice area (SCRA) was less than that of double cropping rice area (DCRA), whereas the effectiveness of thermal resources of both SARA and DCRA showed a decreasing trend. The index value of effective precipitation satisfaction of SCRA was higher than that of DCRA, nevertheless the index value of effective precipitation satisfaction of both SCRA and DCRA showed a decreasing trend. There was a significant linear relationship between effective thermal resource and water demand, likely water demand increased by 18 mm with every 100 degrees C d increase of effective heat. Effective precipitation satisfaction index (EPSI) showed a negative correlation with effective heat, yet showed a positive correlation with effective precipitation. EPSI reduced by 1% when effective heat resource increased by 125 degrees C d. This study could provide insights for policy makers, land managers or farmers to improve water and heat resource uses and rationally arrange rice production activities under global climate change condition.
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.009URL [本文引用: 2]
Climate change is recognized to increase the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events that lead to declining crop yield, but this impact has not been well evaluated in China. We examined the changes in extreme temperature stress over the past five decades by quantifying the indices of temperature stress (TSI) during different growth stages of irrigated rice across mainland China. Our results suggest that the indices of low- or high-temperature stress can be used to explain the year-to-year changes in rice yield. Analysis using the TSI indicated that low-temperature stress (LTS) in the seedling and heading-flowering stages of single rice in northeast China, the seedling stage of early rice and the heading-flowering stage of late rice in the double rice regions has reduced over the period of 1961 2008. No significant trends in LTS were detected during the booting stage. Moreover, global warming did not enhance high-temperature stress (HTS) in the heading-flowering stage over the same period, except in early rice in the mid-lower Yangtze River Valley where the HTS in the 2000s was higher than in previous decades.
DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2014.05.008URL [本文引用: 2]
DOI:10.1007/s10113-012-0357-7URL [本文引用: 2]
中国科学院机构知识库(CAS IR GRID)以发展机构知识能力和知识管理能力为目标，快速实现对本机构知识资产的收集、长期保存、合理传播利用，积极建设对知识内容进行捕获、转化、传播、利用和审计的能力，逐步建设包括知识内容分析、关系分析和能力审计在内的知识服务能力，开展综合知识管理。
URL [本文引用: 1]
The significant and various impacts of climate change are observed from the past experience, the impacts were shown as advantageous and adverse impacts in different sectors and regions, while mainly presented as adverse. It is very likely that future climate change would result in significant adverse impacts on the ecosystem and the national sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. The adverse impacts would be alleviated by adopting adaptive measures; the adaptive actions to climate change should be incorporated into the medium- and long-term planning of national economic and social development. Because of lack of scientific research and limit of understanding on climate change, there are still a lot of uncertainties for impact assessment methodology and results. Case studies should be strengthened, research aspects should be enlarged, and impacts assessment of extreme weather/climate events should be enhanced to reduce the uncertainties and develop practical adaptive measures to cope with climate change in China.
URL [本文引用: 1]
The significant and various impacts of climate change are observed from the past experience, the impacts were shown as advantageous and adverse impacts in different sectors and regions, while mainly presented as adverse. It is very likely that future climate change would result in significant adverse impacts on the ecosystem and the national sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. The adverse impacts would be alleviated by adopting adaptive measures; the adaptive actions to climate change should be incorporated into the medium- and long-term planning of national economic and social development. Because of lack of scientific research and limit of understanding on climate change, there are still a lot of uncertainties for impact assessment methodology and results. Case studies should be strengthened, research aspects should be enlarged, and impacts assessment of extreme weather/climate events should be enhanced to reduce the uncertainties and develop practical adaptive measures to cope with climate change in China.
DOI:10.1007/s10113-014-0677-xURL [本文引用: 2]
Knowledge of cropping areas and climate change is crucial to understanding the causes and consequences of global land use change, and the response of rice areas to climate change is a hot topic to global food security. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on suitable areas for rice cultivation and how the actual cultivated area of rice has been altered in response to climate change during the past three decades. To understand whether the shifts in the extent and location of rice cropping areas match the pattern of climate change, the yearly climate data from 726 weather stations and the rice census data from 2,343 counties were employed to simulate the climatically suitable region for rice using the MaxEnt species distribution model, as well as to model the actual geographical distribution of rice using the spatial allocation production model in each decade. The results show that approximately 3.902% of all Chinese land area (roughly 3.702×0210 7 02ha) has become suitable for rice due to climate change over the past three decades, representing new potential areas for rice cultivation. Meanwhile, the actual rice cropping area has increased by approximately 18.202%, indicating that the extent and location of the rice expansion match the pattern of climate change. However, some spatial inconsistencies did exist between the actual rice area’s expansion and the climatically suitable region after 1990. Nevertheless, climate change was a possible factor impacting the geospatial and temporal changes of the actual rice cropping area in China.
DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2005.05.009URL [本文引用: 1]
根据黑龙江省1980～1999年的气候资料和1980～2000年水稻、小麦、玉米等主要粮食作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变化背景下黑龙江省主要粮食作物的种植格局和种植界限变化情况.结果表明:在过去20年里,全省主要粮食作物的播种面积变化显著.特别是进入20世纪90年代,水稻播种范围向北向东扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加;小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向北退缩;玉米则在保持一个相对稳定的比例关系的基础上,逐渐向北部和东部伸展.粮食种植结构的这种调整使水稻逐渐取代小麦成为黑龙江省主要粮食作物之一,并最终导致该区主要粮食作物种植格局从以小麦和玉米为主转变为以玉米和水稻为主.上述粮食作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关.
DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2005.05.009URL [本文引用: 1]
根据黑龙江省1980～1999年的气候资料和1980～2000年水稻、小麦、玉米等主要粮食作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变化背景下黑龙江省主要粮食作物的种植格局和种植界限变化情况.结果表明:在过去20年里,全省主要粮食作物的播种面积变化显著.特别是进入20世纪90年代,水稻播种范围向北向东扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加;小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向北退缩;玉米则在保持一个相对稳定的比例关系的基础上,逐渐向北部和东部伸展.粮食种植结构的这种调整使水稻逐渐取代小麦成为黑龙江省主要粮食作物之一,并最终导致该区主要粮食作物种植格局从以小麦和玉米为主转变为以玉米和水稻为主.上述粮食作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关.
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2008.01.012URL [本文引用: 1]
利用多时相遥感数据，生成黑龙江西部地区1988年和1998年两个序列的农作物种植范围图，结合相应时段的该地区≥10℃积温数据进行分析。研究表明，黑龙江省西部地区农作物种植结构对气候变暖有明显的响应变化：随着等温线的大幅度整体北移，水稻的种植北界随着≥10℃积温的2200℃等温线向北移动约1．5个纬度，水稻集中种植区随≥10℃积温的2300—2400℃等温线北移约1个纬度；分布在≥10℃积温2800℃等温线和240℃等温线附近的两个玉米密集种植区随着上述两条等温线北移1个纬度左右。在上述玉米、水稻种植范围北移过程中，同时出现玉米的种植区被新增的水稻种植区大范围替代的现象。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2008.01.012URL [本文引用: 1]
利用多时相遥感数据，生成黑龙江西部地区1988年和1998年两个序列的农作物种植范围图，结合相应时段的该地区≥10℃积温数据进行分析。研究表明，黑龙江省西部地区农作物种植结构对气候变暖有明显的响应变化：随着等温线的大幅度整体北移，水稻的种植北界随着≥10℃积温的2200℃等温线向北移动约1．5个纬度，水稻集中种植区随≥10℃积温的2300—2400℃等温线北移约1个纬度；分布在≥10℃积温2800℃等温线和240℃等温线附近的两个玉米密集种植区随着上述两条等温线北移1个纬度左右。在上述玉米、水稻种植范围北移过程中，同时出现玉米的种植区被新增的水稻种植区大范围替代的现象。
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2012.098URL [本文引用: 1]
The planting northern boundary of single harvest rice is significant not only for crop planning but also for making countermeasures to cope with climate change in China. Single harvest rice planting northern boundary in China under natural and irrigation conditions were studied in this paper, based on the geographic information of single harvest rice from the national agrometeorological observation stations and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) as well as the dominant climate factors affecting single harvest rice planting zone distribution, together with the maximum entropy model. Furthermore, the single harvest rice planting northern boundaries from this study were compared to those from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group in China (CAFCRG). The results show that single harvest rice planting northern boundary in China could reach Mohe county, Helongjiang province under natural conditions. Daxinganling located to the west of the Mohe-Tahe-Huma central-line and the areas located to the west of the Longjing-Tailai-Duerboter-Daqing-Zhaoqing-Zhaoyuan line are not suitable to planting single harvest rice under natural conditions. The single harvest rice planting northern boundary does not exist under irrigation conditions, that is, Mohe county located at the north end of China could plant single harvest rice. And the single harvest rice planting northern boundary could extend slightly westward for the central Mohe-Tahe-Huma planting zone. The single harvest rice planting boundaries obtained from the study are more close to the practical boundaries at present and more accurate than those from CAAS and CAFCRG. This result is very helpful for the planting planning of single harvest rice in northern China.
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2012.098URL [本文引用: 1]
The planting northern boundary of single harvest rice is significant not only for crop planning but also for making countermeasures to cope with climate change in China. Single harvest rice planting northern boundary in China under natural and irrigation conditions were studied in this paper, based on the geographic information of single harvest rice from the national agrometeorological observation stations and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) as well as the dominant climate factors affecting single harvest rice planting zone distribution, together with the maximum entropy model. Furthermore, the single harvest rice planting northern boundaries from this study were compared to those from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group in China (CAFCRG). The results show that single harvest rice planting northern boundary in China could reach Mohe county, Helongjiang province under natural conditions. Daxinganling located to the west of the Mohe-Tahe-Huma central-line and the areas located to the west of the Longjing-Tailai-Duerboter-Daqing-Zhaoqing-Zhaoyuan line are not suitable to planting single harvest rice under natural conditions. The single harvest rice planting northern boundary does not exist under irrigation conditions, that is, Mohe county located at the north end of China could plant single harvest rice. And the single harvest rice planting northern boundary could extend slightly westward for the central Mohe-Tahe-Huma planting zone. The single harvest rice planting boundaries obtained from the study are more close to the practical boundaries at present and more accurate than those from CAAS and CAFCRG. This result is very helpful for the planting planning of single harvest rice in northern China.
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2010.02.013URL [本文引用: 1]
【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，中国气温自20世纪80年代明显升高已成为共识，这一变化对中国农业生产尤其是对种植制度的影响越来越受到中国政府和专家****的重视。为了回答这一问题，笔者以1981年为时间节点，把从20世纪50年代至今分为2个时间段，分析和比较后一时段气候变暖对全国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、双季稻种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的可能影响，以及由于种植北界的空间位移对作物产量可能的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界指标以及雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的降水量指标，采用公认的农业气候指标计算方法，使用ArcGIS分别绘出1950s-1980年、1981--2007年2个时段全国种植制度北界图，以及冬小麦种植北界图、双季稻种植北界图、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界图。【结果】（1）与1950s-1980年相比，1981—2007年一年二熟制种植北界，空间位移变化最大的区域在陕西省、山西省、河北省、北京和辽宁省。一年三熟制种植北界，空间位移变化最大的区域为湖南省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下，这些区域由一年一熟变成一年二熟，主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加54％-106％，由一年二熟变成一年三熟，主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加27％-58％。（2）与1950s-1980年相比，1981--2007年辽宁省、河北省、山西省、陕西省、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃省和青海省冬小麦的种植北界不同程度北移西扩。以河北省为例，冬小麦种植北界的北移，可使界限变化区域由春小麦改种冬小麦，单产平均增加约25％。（3）浙江省、安徽省、湖北省和湖南省双季稻的种植北界向北移动，单从热量资源的角度出发，可使17
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2010.02.013URL [本文引用: 1]
【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，中国气温自20世纪80年代明显升高已成为共识，这一变化对中国农业生产尤其是对种植制度的影响越来越受到中国政府和专家****的重视。为了回答这一问题，笔者以1981年为时间节点，把从20世纪50年代至今分为2个时间段，分析和比较后一时段气候变暖对全国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、双季稻种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的可能影响，以及由于种植北界的空间位移对作物产量可能的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦和双季稻种植北界指标以及雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界的降水量指标，采用公认的农业气候指标计算方法，使用ArcGIS分别绘出1950s-1980年、1981--2007年2个时段全国种植制度北界图，以及冬小麦种植北界图、双季稻种植北界图、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界图。【结果】（1）与1950s-1980年相比，1981—2007年一年二熟制种植北界，空间位移变化最大的区域在陕西省、山西省、河北省、北京和辽宁省。一年三熟制种植北界，空间位移变化最大的区域为湖南省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下，这些区域由一年一熟变成一年二熟，主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加54％-106％，由一年二熟变成一年三熟，主体种植模式的粮食单产平均可增加27％-58％。（2）与1950s-1980年相比，1981--2007年辽宁省、河北省、山西省、陕西省、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃省和青海省冬小麦的种植北界不同程度北移西扩。以河北省为例，冬小麦种植北界的北移，可使界限变化区域由春小麦改种冬小麦，单产平均增加约25％。（3）浙江省、安徽省、湖北省和湖南省双季稻的种植北界向北移动，单从热量资源的角度出发，可使17
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2011.04.005URL [本文引用: 1]
利用我国南方稻区214站1961-2009年逐日气象资料,研究气候变化对南方水稻可种植区的影响.研究结果显示:气候变暖使南方稻区活动积温(日平均气温≥10℃)明显增加,49年增加了324.4℃-d.同时水稻生长季长度也明显延长,49年延长了17.9 d.双季稻可种植区北界明显北移,三季稻可种植区北界略有北移,20世纪60-80年代,双季稻可种植区仅限于长江以南地区,但21世纪初以来的10年双季稻可种植区北界移到长江以北,即向北推移近300 km,从而使新增双季稻可种植区扩展到四川东北部、贵州东部、重庆、湖北大部、安徽中部以及江苏南部.
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2011.04.005URL [本文引用: 1]
利用我国南方稻区214站1961-2009年逐日气象资料,研究气候变化对南方水稻可种植区的影响.研究结果显示:气候变暖使南方稻区活动积温(日平均气温≥10℃)明显增加,49年增加了324.4℃-d.同时水稻生长季长度也明显延长,49年延长了17.9 d.双季稻可种植区北界明显北移,三季稻可种植区北界略有北移,20世纪60-80年代,双季稻可种植区仅限于长江以南地区,但21世纪初以来的10年双季稻可种植区北界移到长江以北,即向北推移近300 km,从而使新增双季稻可种植区扩展到四川东北部、贵州东部、重庆、湖北大部、安徽中部以及江苏南部.
URL [本文引用: 1]
定量描述气候变化影响下水稻种植分布变化可为优化水稻生产布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供依据.基于最大熵方法建立的双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型,本文研究了1961～2010年我国双季稻种植分布变化.结果表明:我国双季稻种植分布及其气候适宜性存在年代际变化.低适宜等级以上总适宜区面积,在20世纪60年代最高,70年代到21世纪前10年呈先增后减的特点;低适宜区面积呈减少趋势,反映双季稻主产区的中、高适宜区面积之和呈增加趋势;高气候适宜区面积在21世纪前10年增加较多,是20世纪90年代的4.4倍,是60年代的4倍.我国双季稻种植分布受年代际气候变化影响较大的地区主要位于江苏、安徽中部、四川盆地东部、河南南部及贵州中部;在浙江北部、安徽、湖北南部、广西北部地区,存在双季稻低、中气候适宜等级之间的转换;在江西中部、雷州半岛,存在双季稻中、高气候适宜等级之间的转换.20世纪70年代双季稻种植北界南移东退,80年代双季稻种植界限北移,21世纪前10年气温明显升高并没有使双季稻种植界限北移.
URL [本文引用: 1]
定量描述气候变化影响下水稻种植分布变化可为优化水稻生产布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供依据.基于最大熵方法建立的双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型,本文研究了1961～2010年我国双季稻种植分布变化.结果表明:我国双季稻种植分布及其气候适宜性存在年代际变化.低适宜等级以上总适宜区面积,在20世纪60年代最高,70年代到21世纪前10年呈先增后减的特点;低适宜区面积呈减少趋势,反映双季稻主产区的中、高适宜区面积之和呈增加趋势;高气候适宜区面积在21世纪前10年增加较多,是20世纪90年代的4.4倍,是60年代的4倍.我国双季稻种植分布受年代际气候变化影响较大的地区主要位于江苏、安徽中部、四川盆地东部、河南南部及贵州中部;在浙江北部、安徽、湖北南部、广西北部地区,存在双季稻低、中气候适宜等级之间的转换;在江西中部、雷州半岛,存在双季稻中、高气候适宜等级之间的转换.20世纪70年代双季稻种植北界南移东退,80年代双季稻种植界限北移,21世纪前10年气温明显升高并没有使双季稻种植界限北移.
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.17.003URL [本文引用: 1]
【Objective】The trajectories of center of gravity rice acreage and production in China’s north and south regions and different rice systems were drawn respectively, the causes are analyzed, and the main factors that affect the total rice production was found at present stage.【Method】Using gravity fitting model, the temporal-spatial dynamic of rice production in China was analyzed. The main factors affecting China’s total rice production at present were found with sensitivity analysis.【Result】 In addition to the 1960s and 1970s center of gravity of rice sown acreage and production in China had skewed toward the southeast and eastern, it general moved toward the northeast direction since the founding of China. In 1979-2009, the center of gravity of rice in north moved quickly to the Songliao Basin of northeast of China. Center of gravity of middle-season rice and single cropping later rice moved firstly toward northeast then toward southeast, and its direction of movement was consistent with the order of the change of southern rice system, i.e. “double cropping rice changes to single cropping rice” from north to south. Center of gravity of early-season rice and double-season later rice both moved toward southwest. The percentage of single cropping rice was increased significantly in south China; the phenomenon “change double rice to single one” was obvious, which was the main reason leading to the decline of China’s rice acreage. Combined with sensitivity analysis, we can see that the sown acreage becomes the key factor most possibly affecting rice production stability.【Conclusion】 Regulation of market mechanism and technological progress were the two main factors currently affecting the temporal-spatial dynamic changes of rice in China. Under the precondition of keeping on the guidance of the market, from the perspective of food security, according to national conditions, especially to regulate early-season rice and double-season late rice that have low costs profit margins and downward trend of acreage, at same time taking into account total rice acreage, to prevent it from large fluctuation, to improve the yield of rice constantly, is the key to ensure steady increase of China rice output at this stage.
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.17.003URL [本文引用: 1]
【Objective】The trajectories of center of gravity rice acreage and production in China’s north and south regions and different rice systems were drawn respectively, the causes are analyzed, and the main factors that affect the total rice production was found at present stage.【Method】Using gravity fitting model, the temporal-spatial dynamic of rice production in China was analyzed. The main factors affecting China’s total rice production at present were found with sensitivity analysis.【Result】 In addition to the 1960s and 1970s center of gravity of rice sown acreage and production in China had skewed toward the southeast and eastern, it general moved toward the northeast direction since the founding of China. In 1979-2009, the center of gravity of rice in north moved quickly to the Songliao Basin of northeast of China. Center of gravity of middle-season rice and single cropping later rice moved firstly toward northeast then toward southeast, and its direction of movement was consistent with the order of the change of southern rice system, i.e. “double cropping rice changes to single cropping rice” from north to south. Center of gravity of early-season rice and double-season later rice both moved toward southwest. The percentage of single cropping rice was increased significantly in south China; the phenomenon “change double rice to single one” was obvious, which was the main reason leading to the decline of China’s rice acreage. Combined with sensitivity analysis, we can see that the sown acreage becomes the key factor most possibly affecting rice production stability.【Conclusion】 Regulation of market mechanism and technological progress were the two main factors currently affecting the temporal-spatial dynamic changes of rice in China. Under the precondition of keeping on the guidance of the market, from the perspective of food security, according to national conditions, especially to regulate early-season rice and double-season late rice that have low costs profit margins and downward trend of acreage, at same time taking into account total rice acreage, to prevent it from large fluctuation, to improve the yield of rice constantly, is the key to ensure steady increase of China rice output at this stage.
DOI:10.11821/xb201305009URL [本文引用: 1]
Rice is one of the most important staples in China. Rice's spatial-temporal distributions, which are vital to agricultural, environmental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as social-economic developments. In recent years, most of agricultural land use change studies are focused on cultivated land change and its impact, while few are focused on arable crop area change because crop sown area estimates are based on statistics by administrative units, and such data lack accurate information on spatial and temporal variations. Other estimates are based on remote sensing, such data limited by spatial resolution which is difficult to capture the finer information of crops. Thus, multi-source data integration has become an effective way to determine spatial distributions of crops. Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) is a multi-source data integration model that integrated arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data, and crop suitable data. It applied a cross-entropy method to allocate the statistics data of crop area and production down to such a fine spatial location, such as a pixel. This research uses the SPAM-China model to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with a 10-km pixel at national scale, based on long-term county-and province-level agricultural statistics since the early 1980s, and then, analyzes the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that there are significant changes in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang, most of the decreased area and production were located in southeastern China, especially, in rapidly urbanized provinces of Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved to northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production around 320 km, which means rice production moves northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change has a decisive impact on rice production change. Approximately 54.5% of the increase in rice production is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to shrinkage of rice area. This implies that rice production increased may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.
DOI:10.11821/xb201305009URL [本文引用: 1]
Rice is one of the most important staples in China. Rice's spatial-temporal distributions, which are vital to agricultural, environmental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as social-economic developments. In recent years, most of agricultural land use change studies are focused on cultivated land change and its impact, while few are focused on arable crop area change because crop sown area estimates are based on statistics by administrative units, and such data lack accurate information on spatial and temporal variations. Other estimates are based on remote sensing, such data limited by spatial resolution which is difficult to capture the finer information of crops. Thus, multi-source data integration has become an effective way to determine spatial distributions of crops. Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) is a multi-source data integration model that integrated arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data, and crop suitable data. It applied a cross-entropy method to allocate the statistics data of crop area and production down to such a fine spatial location, such as a pixel. This research uses the SPAM-China model to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with a 10-km pixel at national scale, based on long-term county-and province-level agricultural statistics since the early 1980s, and then, analyzes the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that there are significant changes in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang, most of the decreased area and production were located in southeastern China, especially, in rapidly urbanized provinces of Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved to northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production around 320 km, which means rice production moves northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change has a decisive impact on rice production change. Approximately 54.5% of the increase in rice production is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to shrinkage of rice area. This implies that rice production increased may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.
DOI:10.1021/es505624xURLPMID:25625767 [本文引用: 1]
Abstract Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice production system to adapt to climate changes. Using province-level rice production data and historic climate records, here we show that the centroid of Chinese rice production shifted northeastward over 370km (2.98 N in latitude and 1.88 E in longitude) from 1949 to 2010. Using a linear regression model, we examined the driving factors, in particular climate, behind such rice production movement. While the major driving forces of the rice relocation are such social economic factors as urbanization, irrigation investment, and agricultural or land use policy changes, climate plays a significant role as well. We found that temperature has been a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice center in China and precipitation has had a significant but less spatially coherent influence.
DOI:10.1111/gcb.12057URLPMID:23504793 [本文引用: 4]
An extensive dataset on rice phenology in China, including 202 series broadly covering the past three decades (1980s–2000s), was compiled. From these data, we estimated the responses of growth duration length to temperature using a regression model based on the data with and without detrending. Regression coefficients derived from the detrended data reflect only the temperature effect, whereas those derived from data without detrending represent a combined effect of temperature and confounding cultivar shifts. Results indicate that the regression coefficients calculated from the data with and without detrending show an average shortening of the growth duration of 4.1–4.4 days for each additional increase in temperature over the full growth cycle. Using the detrended data, 95.0% of the data series exhibited a negative correlation between the growth duration length and temperature; this correlation was significant in 61.9% of all of the data series. We then compared the difference between the two regression coefficients calculated from data with and without detrending and found a significantly greater temperature sensitivity using the data without detrending (612.9 days °C611) than that derived from the detrended data (612.0 days °C611) in the period of emergence to heading for the late rice, producing a negative difference in temperature sensitivity (610.9 days °C611). This implies that short-duration cultivars were planted with increase in temperature and exacerbated the undesired phenological change. In contrast, positive differences were detected for the single (0.6 days °C611) and early rice (0.5 days °C611) over the full growth cycle, which might indicate that long-duration cultivars were favoured with climate warming, but these differences were insignificant. In summary, our results suggest that a major, temperature induced change in the rice growth duration is underway in China and that using a short-duration cultivar has been accelerating the process for late rice.
DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2013.12.001URL [本文引用: 5]
Changes in rice phenology during 1981 2009 were investigated using observed phenological data from hundreds of agro-meteorological stations across China. Spatiotemporal changes of rice phenology across China, as well as the relations to temperature, day length and cultivars shifts were analyzed and presented. We found that major rice phenological dates generally advanced while rice growing period changed diversely for different rice cultivation systems in different agro-ecological zones. Length of vegetative growth period (VGP) increased at 59 (67.0%) stations for single-rice, however, decreased at 36 (54.5%) and 35 (51.5%) stations for early-rice, and late-rice, respectively. Length of reproductive growth period (RGP) increased at 71 (70.3%) and 49 (55.7%) stations for single-rice and early-rice, respectively, however, decreased at 46 (54.8%) stations for late-rice. The changes were ascribed to the combined effects of changes in temperature, photoperiod and cultivar thermal characteristics. Increase in temperature had negative impacts on the lengths of VGP and RGP. Day length slightly counterbalanced the roles of temperature in affecting the duration of VGP. Furthermore, we found that during 1981 2009 cultivars with longer growth duration of VGP were adopted for single-rice, but cultivars with shorter growth duration of VGP were adopted for early-rice and late-rice. Cultivars with longer growth durations of RGP were adopted for single-rice and early-rice, as well as late-rice at the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. However, in the southwestern China and southern China, cultivars with shorter or almost same growth duration of RGP were adopted for late rice.
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.001URL [本文引用: 2]
The phenological development of rice is a critical element affecting grain yield. The phenophases of rice development from transplanting through heading to maturity have often been linked to climatic factors, such as temperature and solar radiation. In contrast, the effects of physiological processes on the timing of rice maturity have not been well investigated. In this study, we examined shifts in the timing of transplanting, heading, and maturity of single, early, and late rice in China during the period 1991 2012; we used in situ records assembled at 113 agricultural stations, and explored the correlations between changes in the timing of phenological events and (i) climatic and (ii) physiological factors. We detected a significant warming trend through whole growing seasons (from transplanting to maturity) for all three rice varieties; this trend had negative impacts on the dates of maturity. The durations of the growing seasons over the period were extended by 4.1 2.0, 1.8 2.9, and 2.2 1.9 days for single, early, and late rice, respectively. However, for single rice, the extension was related to delayed dates of transplanting and maturity, whereas for early and late rice, it was attributed to advances in the dates of transplanting and maturity. The timing of maturity in all rice types was most closely related to transplantation and heading dates; climatic factors were of secondary importance. We hypothesize that internal regulation processes operating via carbohydrate content or leaf/cell longevities likely influence rice phenological processes through hormonal mechanisms. Early-season phenological events clearly influence the timing of plant maturity; the dates of early season events are shifting. Therefore, current protocols for global and regional crop modeling that use fixed planting dates are unlikely to accurately account for the impacts of climate change on croplands.
URL [本文引用: 2]
为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明:1989—2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.
URL [本文引用: 2]
为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明:1989—2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.
DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.008URL [本文引用: 4]
China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change.
DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2012.11.009URL [本文引用: 3]
Development of successful strategies to alleviate adverse impact of climate change on crop production relies on understanding of interactions between climate and crop physiology, and presents a new opportunity for sustainable agriculture. In this study we combine the analysis of 30 years of climate data and observed rice data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of climate change and changes in rice varieties on rice growth and grain yield from 1981 to 2009 at three sites (Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao) in double rice regions in China. The results revealed that while there was a warming trend in general, significant warming mainly occurred before jointing stage of early rice and after jointing of later rice. The adoption of new rice cultivars could only partly mitigate the negative impact of warming on rice growth duration and biomass growth. However, the changes of varieties increased the grain yield of both early and late rice through increased harvest index. The major variety changes involved reduced intrinsic earliness, extended grain filling period, and improved harvest index. In the face of future climate change, a planned breeding effort is needed to maintain or increase grain yield of the double rice system. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01374.xURL [本文引用: 1]
The phenology of 78 agricultural and horticultural events from a national survey in Germany spanning the years 1951–2004 is examined. The majority of events are significantly earlier now than 53 years ago, with a mean advance of 1.1–1.3 days per decade. The mean trends for 'true phases', such as emergence and flowering, of annual and perennial crops are not significantly different, although more trends (78% vs. 46%) are significant for annual crops. We attempt to remove the influence of technological advance or altered farming practices on phenology by detrending the respective time series by linear regression of date (day number) on year. Subsequently, we estimate responses to mean monthly and seasonal temperature by correlation and regression in two ways; with and without removing the year trend first. Nearly all (97%) correlation coefficients are negative, suggesting earlier events in warmer years. Between 82% and 94% of the coefficients with seasonal spring and summer temperatures are significant. The conservative estimate (detrended) of mean temperature response against mean March–May temperature (613.73 days °C 611 ) is significantly less than the full estimate (614.31 days °C 611 ), the 'true' size of phenological temperature response may lie in between. Perennial crops exhibited a significantly higher temperature response to mean spring temperature than the annual crops.
[本文引用: 2]
[本文引用: 2]
DOI:10.1016/S0378-4290(99)00050-7URL [本文引用: 1]
This paper reviews the factors determining flowering time and phenology requirement in rainfed lowland rice. Recent developments in understanding of the temperature and photoperiod effects on flowering time of rice resulted in phenology models that can predict flowering time accurately in the irrigated field. However, in the rainfed lowland ecosystem drought and low soil fertility commonly delay flowering time. Genotypes with a long delay are often those with a large yield reduction under the adverse conditions. In rainfed lowland rice, there may not be standing water at the appropriate time for transplanting and the use of old seedlings for transplanting on a later date results in delay in flowering. Optimum time of flowering for high yield is often related to water availability, and early flowering cultivars are favoured in areas where the probability of occurrence of late season drought is high. However, short duration cultivars are less tolerant to stress such as early season drought if the stress develops during the vegetative stage. The variation in water availability in paddies would cause genotype phenology-environment interaction for yield. Further understanding of water balance in the rainfed lowlands would assist determination of the optimum phenology groups for different regions of the rainfed lowland system.
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.07.004URL [本文引用: 1]
【Objective】A better understanding of global warming impacts on grain production can reduce the uncertainties of future food security projection. Rice is one of the most important grain crops in the world. Northeast China is the main region of rice cropping and the greatest warming area in China. It is significant and necessary to learn the potential impacts of warming on rice production in Northeast China for ensuring the future food security.【Method】Based on historical data analysis and three-year field warming experiment (Free air temperature increase, FATI), the actual responses and adaptations of rice cropping system to warming were investigated in Northeast China.【Result】The results showed that there were similar increasing trends between air temperature during rice cropping season and rice yield over the past decades. Significant positive relationship was found between nighttime increment and rice yield enhancement, while no significant relationship was found between rice yield and precipitation. According to the relationship between climate anomaly and rice yield anomaly over the last thirty years, 1℃ increment in daily minimum temperature during rice cropping season might increase rice yield by about 6.0%. Meanwhile, field experiments showed that further 1℃ warming at nighttime might enhance rice yield by about 10.0% in future. The entire growth period of new variety approved and released in different times has been prolonged by about 3.0 d?10a-1 during the past fifty years, which is confirmed by the actual prolonging of rice growth period by 5.0 day observed in field during the last twenty years. Rice sown area in Heilongjiang province increased about 24 times in 2010 than 1970, and the cropping centre moved northward about by 110 km during the past forty years. Similar spatial change was found in ≥10℃ accumulated temperature during rice cropping season over the same years in Northeast.【Conclusion】 The above evidences indicate that warming has contributed a great to the historical increment in rice yield, and further warming will still help rice yield increase in Northeast China. Rice cropping system can progressively adapt to global warming through variety breeding, cropping technique innovation and cropping region adjustment. More efforts should be paid on the great adaptation potential of rice cropping system to warming, so as to fully explore the positive effects of warming on rice production at high latitude area and reduce the risk of yield decrease due to the unstable climate.
DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.07.004URL [本文引用: 1]
【Objective】A better understanding of global warming impacts on grain production can reduce the uncertainties of future food security projection. Rice is one of the most important grain crops in the world. Northeast China is the main region of rice cropping and the greatest warming area in China. It is significant and necessary to learn the potential impacts of warming on rice production in Northeast China for ensuring the future food security.【Method】Based on historical data analysis and three-year field warming experiment (Free air temperature increase, FATI), the actual responses and adaptations of rice cropping system to warming were investigated in Northeast China.【Result】The results showed that there were similar increasing trends between air temperature during rice cropping season and rice yield over the past decades. Significant positive relationship was found between nighttime increment and rice yield enhancement, while no significant relationship was found between rice yield and precipitation. According to the relationship between climate anomaly and rice yield anomaly over the last thirty years, 1℃ increment in daily minimum temperature during rice cropping season might increase rice yield by about 6.0%. Meanwhile, field experiments showed that further 1℃ warming at nighttime might enhance rice yield by about 10.0% in future. The entire growth period of new variety approved and released in different times has been prolonged by about 3.0 d?10a-1 during the past fifty years, which is confirmed by the actual prolonging of rice growth period by 5.0 day observed in field during the last twenty years. Rice sown area in Heilongjiang province increased about 24 times in 2010 than 1970, and the cropping centre moved northward about by 110 km during the past forty years. Similar spatial change was found in ≥10℃ accumulated temperature during rice cropping season over the same years in Northeast.【Conclusion】 The above evidences indicate that warming has contributed a great to the historical increment in rice yield, and further warming will still help rice yield increase in Northeast China. Rice cropping system can progressively adapt to global warming through variety breeding, cropping technique innovation and cropping region adjustment. More efforts should be paid on the great adaptation potential of rice cropping system to warming, so as to fully explore the positive effects of warming on rice production at high latitude area and reduce the risk of yield decrease due to the unstable climate.
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.10.016URL [本文引用: 1]
Whether crop phenology changes are caused by change in managements or by climate change belongs to the category of problems known as detection-attribution. Three type of rice (early, late and single rice) in China show an average increase in Length of Growing Period (LGP) during 1991–2012: 1.0±4.8day/decade (±standard deviation across sites) for early rice, 0.2±4.5day/decade for late rice and 2.0±6.0day/decade for single rice, based on observations from 141 long-term monitoring stations. Positive LGP trends are widespread, but only significant (P<0.05) at 25% of early rice, 22% of late rice and 38% of single rice sites. We developed a Bayes-based optimization algorithm, and optimized five parameters controlling phenological development in a process-based crop model (ORCHIDEE-crop) for discriminating effects of managements from those of climate change on rice LGP. The results from the optimized ORCHIDEE-crop model suggest that climate change has an effect on LGP trends dependent on rice types. Climate trends have shortened LGP of early rice (612.0±5.0day/decade), lengthened LGP of late rice (1.1±5.4day/decade) and have little impacts on LGP of single rice (610.4±5.4day/decade). ORCHIDEE-crop simulations further show that change in transplanting date caused widespread LGP change only for early rice sites, offsetting 65% of climate change induced LGP shortening. The primary drivers of LGP change are thus different among the three types of rice. Management are predominant driver of LGP change for early and single rice. This study shows that complex regional variations of LGP can be reproduced with an optimized crop model. We further suggest that better documenting observational error and management practices can help reduce large uncertainties existed in attribution of LGP change, and future rice crop modelling in global/regional scales should consider different types of rice and variable transplanting dates in order to better account impacts of management and climate change.
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001URL [本文引用: 1]
Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop-country combinations examined. For several crop-country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.
DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.07.021URL [本文引用: 2]
In this study, we investigated how climate, crop management and variety renewal have interactively affected the rice yields in China for the past three decades. Using the Agro-C model and census yields, the parameters of the photosynthetic ability during the past three decades in the various Agro-ecological Zones were estimated. The Agro-C model, which uses grid-based datasets of climate, crop management and variety renewal, was used to simulate the change in rice yield under various explorative scenarios. Based on these results, we deduced the relative contribution of various factors to the rice yield. The annual increase in rice yields due to genetic improvement in the various AEZs was 0.31–1.63% for single rice, 0.29–1.34% for early rice and 0.07–1.70% for late rice. The rice yield over the past three decades, including all cultivated types, achieved a 79kgha611 or a 1.8% increase per year. The increase in rice yield over the past three decades is comprised of increases that can be attributed to climate (4.4%), management (9.3%) and variety (38.9%). Genetic improvement is the decisive factor and contributed to 74.0% of the total increase in yield.
DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.014URL [本文引用: 2]
Worldwide evidence indicates a reduction in the rate of yield growth for many key food crops, but reasons for this remain unclear. Here, we quantitatively demonstrate the role and significance of different drivers (climate change, fertilizer use, change in rice cultivation area, and changes in crop varieties and management) in explaining rice yield development in China, through the use of two temporally and regionally calibrated crop models – EPIC and DSSAT. China’s rice yield has increased from 4324kgha611 in 1981 to 6553kgha611 in 2010, with an evidently slowing growth rate over this time period. The observed flattening growth trend is well captured by both crop models. EPIC simulated a yield increase of 2024kgha611 up to 2010, with agricultural intensification together with increased application of chemical fertilizer and improved crop varieties and management dominating the growth, contributing 64% and 37% respectively, while changes in climate (2%) and cultivation area (613%) contributed only minimally. The recent slowing rate of rice yield growth is largely interpreted as a decreasing relative contribution of fertilizer, that is not being compensated by relative benefits from improved varieties and management. We also find that adaptation to climate change may have contributed to the observed increase of rice yield by facilitating the relocation of rice growing areas and the adoption of improved rice cultivars. Crop model simulations demonstrate that additional yield increases could be achieved through the introduction of rice cultivars and management optimized for climate, suggesting viable options for reversing the slowing of rice yield growth. Moving towards an agriculture that utilizes climate benefits more smartly is one of the solutions to enhance future food supply in China.
DOI:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60811-XURL [本文引用: 1]
In the study, an improved approach was proposed to identify the contribution shares of three group factors that are climate, technology and input, social economic factors by which the grain production is shaped. In order to calibrate the method, Jiangxi Province, one of the main paddy rice producers in China was taken as an example. Based on 50 years (1961 2010) meteorological and statistic data, using GIS and statistical analysis tools, the three group factors that in certain extent impact China's paddy rice production have been analyzed quantitatively. The individual and interactive contribution shares of each factor group have been identifiedviaeta square ( 2). In the paper, two group ordinary leasr square (OLS) models, paddy models and climate models, have been constructed for further analysis. Each model group consists of seven models, one full model and six partial models. The results of paddy models show that climate factors individually and interactively contribute 11.42 15.25% explanatory power to the variation of paddy rice production in the studied province. Technology and input factors contribute 16.17% individually and another 8.46% interactively together with climate factors, totally contributing about 25%. Social economic factors contribute about 7% of which 4.65% is individual contribution and 2.49% is interactive contribution together with climate factors. The three factor groups individually contribute about 23% and interactively contribute additional 41% to paddy rice production. In addition every two of the three factor groups also function interactively and contribute about 22%. Among the three factor groups, technology and input are the most important factors to paddy rice production. The results of climate models support the results of paddy models, and display that solar radiation (indicated by sunshine hour variable) is the dominate climate factor for paddy rice production.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-017-3831-6URL [本文引用: 1]
Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the “fluctuation threshold” which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981–2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (612.59 to 6115.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of 612.60 to 614.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91–2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented “trade-offs” among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (612.11 to 6112.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.
DOI:10.1111/gcb.13719URLPMID:28391611 [本文引用: 1]
Abstract Climate change is predicted to shift temperature regimes in most agricultural areas with temperature changes expected to impact yields of most crops, including rice. These temperature-driven effects can be classified into point stresses, where a temperature event during a sensitive stage drives a reduction in yield, or seasonal warming losses, where raised temperature is thought to increases maintenance energy demands and thereby decreases available resources for yield formation. Simultaneous estimation of the magnitude of each temperature effect on yield has not been well documented due to the inherent difficulty in separating their effects. We simultaneously quantified the magnitude of each effect for a temperate rice production system using a large data set covering multiple locations with data collected from 1995 to 2015, combined with a unique probability based modeling approach. Point stresses, primarily cold stress during the reproductive stages (booting and flowering), were found to have the largest impact on yield (over 3 Mg ha -1 estimated yield losses). Contrary to previous reports, yield losses caused by increased temperatures, both seasonal and during grain-filling were found to be small (approximately 1-2% loss per C). Occurrences of cool temperature events during reproductive stages were found to be persistent over the study period, and within season, the likelihood of a cool temperature event increased when flowering occurred later in the season. Short and medium grain types, typically recommended for cool regions, were found to be more tolerant of cool temperatures but more sensitive to heat compared to long grain cultivars. These results suggest that for temperate rice systems, the occurrence of periodic stress events may currently overshadow the impacts of general warming temperature on crop production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1545-5URL [本文引用: 1]
Extreme temperature stress (ETS) is recognized as an important threat to the food supply in China. However, how much yield loss caused by ETS (YL ETS ) to the irrigated rice production still remains unclear. In this study, we provided a prototype for YL ETS assessments by using a process-based crop model (MCWLA-Rice) with the ETS impacts explicitly parameterized, to help understand the spatio-temporal patterns of YL ETS and the mechanism underlying the ETS impacts at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid scale in the major irrigated rice planting areas across China during 1981–2010. On the basis of the optimal 30 sets of parameters, the ensemble simulations indicated the following: Regions I (northeastern China) and III 2 (the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River) were considered to be the most vulnerable areas to ETS, with the medium YL ETS of 18.4 and 12.9 %, respectively. Furthermore, large YL ETS values (>10 %) were found in some portions of Region II (the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau), western Region III 1 (the Sichuan Basin), the middle of Region IV_ER (southern China cultivated by early rice), and the west and southeast of Region IV_LR (southern China cultivated by late rice). Over the past several decades, a significant decrease in YL ETS was detected in most of Region I and in northern Region IV_LR (with the medians of 610.53 and 610.28 % year 611 , respectively). However, a significant increase was found in most of Region III (including III 1 and III 2) and in Region IV_ER, particularly in the last decade (2001–2010). Overall, reduced cold stress has improved the conditions for irrigated rice production across large parts of China. Nevertheless, to improve the accuracy of YL ETS estimations, more accurate yield loss functions and multimodel ensembles should be developed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016
DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2014.12.008URL [本文引用: 1]
An insight into optimal temperature and radiation (T&R) in different rice phenological stages will contribute to rice cultivation management and crop modeling. This study was aimed to unravel the responses of various rice cultivars to different T&R conditions and to identify the optimal T&R for both yield and quality in the Yangtze River Valley in China. For this purpose, two Indica and three Japonica cultivars were grown under irrigation conditions, respectively, on three sowing dates (April 30, May 10 and May 30) in 2012 and 2013 to acquire different combinations of T&R conditions. Various morphological, yield- and quality-related traits were investigated. This study demonstrated that temperature in this region is a limiting factor compared with radiation. Besides, there was a smaller variation of the average T&R in reproductive stage than in vegetative and grain filling stages. Therefore, T&R in various phenological stages were classified into three major combinations, namely, HL, LH, MM mainly based on temperature in vegetative and grain filling stages. MM combination had similar average daily temperature in both vegetative and grain filling stages compared with the average temperature of rice growth season. HL combination was of higher (at least 1°C) average daily temperature in vegetative stage and lower (at least 1°C) in grain filling stage compared with MM. Opposite to HL, LH combination was of lower average daily temperature in vegetative stage and higher in grain filling stage compared with MM. Most of the cultivars harvested the highest grain yield with highest T&R use efficiency in HL combination compared to the other two combinations. When the average temperature in vegetative stage was estimated to be 26–28°C and 22–27°C in grain filling stage, higher grain yield can be gained. Moreover, highly significant correlation was found between temperature and LAI (leaf area index), CGR (crop growth rate), and TDW (total above ground biomass) in vegetative stage. HI (harvest index) and all grain-processing and appearance-quality-related traits was highly significantly correlated with temperature in grain filling stage. In conclusion, HL combination with average daily temperature ranges of 26–28°C in vegetative stage, and 22–27°C in grain filling stage are recommended to achieve high grain yield and quality for irrigated rice in the Yangtze River Valley in China by adjusting sowing date and crop establishment.
DOI:10.1007/s10113-015-0920-0URL [本文引用: 1]
We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.
DOI:10.1038/srep29612URLPMID:4937395 [本文引用: 1]
In China, regional haze pollution is a serious environmental problem. The impact on ecosystem, however, is not clearly understood. This study investigates the effect of regional haze pollution on the yields of rice and wheat in China. The spatial and temporal distributions of aerosol optical depth (AOD) show high particulate pollution in the North China Plain region, Yangtze River Delta region, the central eastern China, and the Si Chuan Basin, coexisted largely with crop growth in time and space. The solar irradiance reaching these regions is estimated to reduce by up to 28-49%, calculated using the AOD distributions and tropospheric ultraviolet-visible (TUV) model. Reduction of solar irradiance in these regions can depress optimal yields of about 45% of rice and 75% of wheat growth in China, leading to 2% reduction in total rice production and 8% reduction in total wheat production in China. However, there are large uncertainties of the estimate related to the diffuse solar radiation. For high diffuse radiation case, the estimate reductions of rice and wheat decrease to 1% and 4.5%, respectively. A further detailed study is needed to clearly understand this effect to meet the growing food demand in the nation in the coming decades.
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa80f0URL [本文引用: 1]
Climate-induced crop yields model projections are constrained by the accuracy of the phenology simulation in crop models. Here, we use phenology observations from 775 trials with 19 rice cultivars in 5 Asian countries to compare the performance of four rice phenology models (growing-degree-day (GDD), exponential, beta and bilinear models) when applied to warmer climates. For a given cultivar,... [Show full abstract]
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044014URL [本文引用: 2]
There is increasing evidence of crop yield response to recent global warming, yet there is poor understanding of the relative contributions of different climatic variables to changes in crop production. Using a spatially calibrated crop model with cultivars and crop inputs held constant for the year 2000, we simulate idealized national cereal production during the period 1961-2010 under different combinations of observed climate and COforcings. With increasing COand all climate forcings, production shows a slight and insignificant change (-0.9% between 1961 and 2010); however, without COthe combined climate forcings decrease production (-8.6%). Changing one climate variable at a time, whilst holding the other variables constant at 1961 values, observed warming has virtually no overall effect on production (0.01%), precipitation decreases it by 1.2% and radiation decreases it by 7.0%. The effects are management and crop dependent, with decreasing radiation responsible for reduced irrigated crop production, and precipitation for variability in rain-fed crop production. Rice is the most sensitive crop, with the largest decline (-12.4%) in simulated production. Wheat shows reduced yield (-9.7%) owing to climate factors, whilst offset by COfertilization (overall change 0.9%). Maize shows insignificant change (-1.2%) and moderate increase in production (2.6%), respectively. These model results suggest that decreasing radiation due to increasing aerosol concentration and other atmospheric pollutants has had a greater effect on crop production than warming trends in China. This underscores the need for crop-climate studies to resolve better the effects of radiation on crop yield and examine climate model projections of radiation in greater detail.
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0403720101URLPMID:15226500 [本文引用: 1]
The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 C and 1.13 C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.04.013URL [本文引用: 3]
This empirical study (i) assessed rice yield responses to recent climate change at experiment stations, in counties and in provinces of China for the period of 1981鈥2005 and (ii) identified the climatic drivers determining the trend of yields at each spatial scale. Our empirical results, based on 20 experiment stations during study periods of 14 25 years, indicate that rice yields were positively correlated to solar radiation, which primarily drives yield variation. At most stations, yields were positively correlated to temperature and there was no significant negative correlation between them. Therefore, our empirical results argue against the often-cited hypothesis of lower yields with higher temperature. We explain this by the positive correlation between temperature and radiation at our stations. Empirical analysis to yield at a regional scale (20 counties and 22 provinces) indicates a varying climate to yield relationships. In some places, yields were positively regressed with temperature when they were also positively regressed with radiation, showing the similar pattern at above experiment stations. But, in others, lower yield with higher temperature was accompanied by positive correlation between yield and rainfall, which was not happened at stations. We explain this by irrigation water availability, which played a crucial role in determining climatic effects (radiation or rainfall) on yield variability at a regional scale in China. However, temperature's negative effect is still weak at any scale. This study showed how rice yields respond to recent climate change from 1981 to 2005 at station and regional scales in China and identifies the major climatic driver for yield variation. The empirical findings presented here provide a foundation for anticipating climate change impacts on rice production in China.
DOI:10.1007/s10113-013-0418-6URL [本文引用: 1]
This study explores the effects of observed warming trends since 1980 on crop yields at both national and regional scales for the four main staple crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) in China,...
DOI:10.5846/stxb201111091698URL [本文引用: 1]
有效的适应措施需要了解两类基础信息,一是农业生产所面临的各种气候变异风险,二是作物产量对潜在气候变异风险的反应及其机制。评价作物生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性,可以在时间上和空间上揭示气候变化的趋势及作物产量对其的反应,从而为适应行动的全面开展提供基础信息。通过分析1981—2007年水稻生育期3个气候因子(平均温度、日较差、辐射)的变化对水稻产量的影响,评估我国水稻生产对这3个气候因子变化的敏感性和脆弱性及其区域分布状况。结果表明,1981—2007年间我国大部分水稻产区生育期内3个气候因子均发生了明显变化,存在着气候变异风险,其中以最高温的变化最普遍和明显,导致水稻生产中高温热害风险增加。部分区域水稻产量变化与单一气象因子的变化存在着显著的线性相关,这些地区气候因子的变化可以一定程度地解释水稻产量变化趋势,其中产量变化对辐射变化最敏感。当水稻生育期内平均温度上升1℃、日较差升高1℃、辐射下降10%时,我国部分地区水稻产量随之发生了相应的变化,其中辐射降低导致我国水稻生产的脆弱面积最大,其次为日较差。受3种气象因子变化趋势的综合影响,约有30%的水稻产区对1981—2007年的气候变化趋势敏感,少部分地区表现为脆弱,但水稻主产区受到的影响不大,且在东北地区还集中表现出产量增加的趋势,为我国水稻发展提供了契机。
DOI:10.5846/stxb201111091698URL [本文引用: 1]
有效的适应措施需要了解两类基础信息,一是农业生产所面临的各种气候变异风险,二是作物产量对潜在气候变异风险的反应及其机制。评价作物生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性,可以在时间上和空间上揭示气候变化的趋势及作物产量对其的反应,从而为适应行动的全面开展提供基础信息。通过分析1981—2007年水稻生育期3个气候因子(平均温度、日较差、辐射)的变化对水稻产量的影响,评估我国水稻生产对这3个气候因子变化的敏感性和脆弱性及其区域分布状况。结果表明,1981—2007年间我国大部分水稻产区生育期内3个气候因子均发生了明显变化,存在着气候变异风险,其中以最高温的变化最普遍和明显,导致水稻生产中高温热害风险增加。部分区域水稻产量变化与单一气象因子的变化存在着显著的线性相关,这些地区气候因子的变化可以一定程度地解释水稻产量变化趋势,其中产量变化对辐射变化最敏感。当水稻生育期内平均温度上升1℃、日较差升高1℃、辐射下降10%时,我国部分地区水稻产量随之发生了相应的变化,其中辐射降低导致我国水稻生产的脆弱面积最大,其次为日较差。受3种气象因子变化趋势的综合影响,约有30%的水稻产区对1981—2007年的气候变化趋势敏感,少部分地区表现为脆弱,但水稻主产区受到的影响不大,且在东北地区还集中表现出产量增加的趋势,为我国水稻发展提供了契机。
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007URL [本文引用: 3]
Estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. A key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors. We evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change impacts on crop production for 94 crop-region combinations that account for the bulk of calories consumed by malnourished populations. Specifically, we focused on the relative contributions of four factors: climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivities of crops to temperature and precipitation changes. Surprisingly, uncertainties related to temperature represented a greater contribution to climate change impact uncertainty than those related to precipitation for most crops and regions, and in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature was a critical source of uncertainty. These findings occurred despite rainfall's important contribution to year-to-year variability in crop yields and large disagreements among global climate models over the direction of future regional rainfall changes, and reflect the large magnitude of future warming relative to historical variability. We conclude that progress in understanding crop responses to temperature and the magnitude of regional temperature changes are two of the most important needs for climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture.
DOI:10.1007/s10113-013-0479-6URL [本文引用: 1]
The northeastern three provinces of China (NTPC) is one of the main marketable rice bases in the country, and more than 6002% of marketable Japonica rice is produced in this region. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on rice yields in these provinces is critical because of the high amounts of rice consumption in China. In this study, we conducted correlation and regression analyses of the climate records of 79 meteorological stations and records of rice yields from the years 1960 to 2009 in NTPC. Several variables, which include the monthly mean, anomalies in the minimum and maximum temperatures during the rice-growing season (i.e., May–September) and the accumulated deficit temperature unit (ADU n – ), which we introduced, were used to fit the rice yield anomalies. The results indicated that the rice yield in the NTPC was more significantly affected by monthly anomalies in ADU n – during the growing season than by those in the monthly averages of climatic factors. The ability of ADU n – models to explain variability amounted to 59.2, 40.3, 39.8 and 54.102% of the rice yield in the Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces, and of the average of the three provinces, respectively. Furthermore, the rice yield response to climate change was simulated, using future climate-change scenarios of the daily mean and minimum temperatures from regional climate models during the years of 2020–2040, and it was shown that the future warming scenario favored rice production in Northeast China that was increased by approximately 1.702% above the present yield.
DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2006.02.008URL [本文引用: 1]
Different expressions for the sensitivity of crops to temperature are commonplace. Sometimes absolute values in t ha 611 °C 611 are quoted and sometimes relative values expressed as % °C 611. Values for the sensitivity are often calculated from curves fitted statistically to the data for yield and temperature. Mechanistic models of crop growth were built to avoid the difficulties of assessing the effects on yield of environmental variables that are often correlated with each other. Choosing an arbitrary mathematical relationship between yield and temperature can have bizarre implications for the expressions of temperature sensitivity; especially if the temperature range is small and the relationship is applied outside the range of data. We used a very simple analysis to illustrate the consequences of choosing different ways of expressing the effect of temperature on crop yield. The analysis presented shows that in the mean daily temperature range 22–32 °C, rice yields decline by 610.6 t ha 611 °C 611.
DOI:10.11821/xb201209006URL [本文引用: 2]
从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发,介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3种主要统计模型,即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级)尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4个主要问题,包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题,提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。
DOI:10.11821/xb201209006URL [本文引用: 2]
从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发,介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3种主要统计模型,即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级)尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4个主要问题,包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题,提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。
DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2018.02.023URL [本文引用: 4]
As a way forward, we suggest to have very targeted and well-designed experiments on the specific crop impacts of a given extreme as well as of combinations of them. This in particular refers to extremes addressed with insufficient specificity (e.g. drought) or being under-researched in relation to their economic importance (heavy rains/storm and flooding). Furthermore, we strongly recommend extending research to crops other than wheat, maize and rice.
DOI:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2017.06.007URL [本文引用: 2]
Global warming is one of the biggest challenges for improving the productivity of rice crops in the future. In this study, a meta-analysis and a dose-response analysis were conducted with data collected from 95 publications to study the differential responses of physiological traits, yield components, and grain quality to high day and night temperatures in rice. Overall, grain yield was reduced by 39.6% (with 95% CI from 42.9% to 35.6%) under high temperatures, which was primarily caused by the decrease of seed set percentage. Yield reductions caused by high temperatures were associated with a decrease in photosynthesis and an increase in respiration. High temperatures affected grain quality by decreasing head rice percentage and increasing chalky rice rate and chalkiness. The reduction of grain yields under high day temperature was primarily caused by the reduction in seed set percentage. However, under high night temperature, the combination of decreased spikelet number per panicle, grain weight, and biomass production in addition to decreased seed set percentage contributed to the decline of grain yields. These results suggest that the differential effects of day and night warming on the processes that contribute to formation of rice yield should be considered when new rice cultivars are developed as a crop adaptation strategy for future global warming.
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2016.01402URL [本文引用: 1]
为明确水稻穗分化期高温胁迫对颖花退化和籽粒充实的影响,选用耐热性品种黄华占和热敏感性品种丰两优6号进行人工气候箱盆栽试验,于倒一叶心叶抽出时（花粉母细胞形成至减数分裂期）进行高温处理（10：00—15：00,40℃）1d、3 d、5 d、7 d、9 d,并以同时段适温处理（10：00—15：00,32℃）为参考,自然条件下生长的植株为对照,分析不同持续天数高温对颖花退化、花器官发育和籽粒充实的影响。结果表明：（1）随着处理天数的增加,高温加剧颖花退化,与适温处理及CK相比,高温处理9 d黄华占颖花退化率增加45.8%和62.9%,丰两优6号颖花退化率增加81.7%和136.1%,丰两优6号增加幅度大于黄华占。（2）高温处理1～3 d降低花粉活力,5～9 d抑制花药充实。花药发育不良,花粉形成受阻是导致结实率显著下降的原因,两品种趋势一致。（3）高温处理缩短颖花长度,降低籽粒充实性,使千粒重显著下降,热敏感性品种丰两优6号下降幅度大于耐热性品种黄华占,籽粒充实在5 d以上高温处理下降显著。研究说明倒一叶生长时期高温胁迫影响穗生长发育,生产中需加强相应栽培措施的调控。
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2016.01402URL [本文引用: 1]
为明确水稻穗分化期高温胁迫对颖花退化和籽粒充实的影响,选用耐热性品种黄华占和热敏感性品种丰两优6号进行人工气候箱盆栽试验,于倒一叶心叶抽出时（花粉母细胞形成至减数分裂期）进行高温处理（10：00—15：00,40℃）1d、3 d、5 d、7 d、9 d,并以同时段适温处理（10：00—15：00,32℃）为参考,自然条件下生长的植株为对照,分析不同持续天数高温对颖花退化、花器官发育和籽粒充实的影响。结果表明：（1）随着处理天数的增加,高温加剧颖花退化,与适温处理及CK相比,高温处理9 d黄华占颖花退化率增加45.8%和62.9%,丰两优6号颖花退化率增加81.7%和136.1%,丰两优6号增加幅度大于黄华占。（2）高温处理1～3 d降低花粉活力,5～9 d抑制花药充实。花药发育不良,花粉形成受阻是导致结实率显著下降的原因,两品种趋势一致。（3）高温处理缩短颖花长度,降低籽粒充实性,使千粒重显著下降,热敏感性品种丰两优6号下降幅度大于耐热性品种黄华占,籽粒充实在5 d以上高温处理下降显著。研究说明倒一叶生长时期高温胁迫影响穗生长发育,生产中需加强相应栽培措施的调控。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.06.009URL [本文引用: 1]
为明确穗分化不同时期高温对水稻颖花分化及退化的影响,选用黄华占(耐热性品种)和丰两优6号(热敏感性品种)两个籼稻品种进行人工气候箱内盆栽试验,分别于幼穗分化第一苞分化期(Ⅰ)、枝梗-颖花分化期(Ⅱ)、颖花分化-雌雄蕊形成期(Ⅲ)及雌雄蕊形成-减数分裂期(IV)进行40℃高温(10:00-15:00)处理7d,以同期人工气候箱32℃处理为参考,室外自然环境生长的植株为对照(CK),统计分析穗分化历期、颖花分化与退化及穗部性状在处理期以及品种间的差异。结果表明,(1)幼穗分化期高温胁迫可增加水稻穗分化天数,延迟抽穗期,显著降低水稻每穗粒数、结实率及千粒重,其中Ⅳ期高温处理的降幅最大,热敏感品种丰两优6号的下降幅度明显大于耐热性品种黄华占。(2)幼穗分化不同时期高温处理对水稻颖花形成的影响不同,除II期处理黄华占颖花分化增加外,I期和II期高温主要抑制颖花分化,此期高温均可导致水稻颖花显著减少。Ⅲ期和IV期高温胁迫将加剧颖花退化,退化率达67%以上,且热敏感性品种退化幅度大于耐热性品种。(3)从不同部位颖花分化与退化看,高温对二次枝梗上颖花分化与退化的影响大于一次枝梗。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.06.009URL [本文引用: 1]
为明确穗分化不同时期高温对水稻颖花分化及退化的影响,选用黄华占(耐热性品种)和丰两优6号(热敏感性品种)两个籼稻品种进行人工气候箱内盆栽试验,分别于幼穗分化第一苞分化期(Ⅰ)、枝梗-颖花分化期(Ⅱ)、颖花分化-雌雄蕊形成期(Ⅲ)及雌雄蕊形成-减数分裂期(IV)进行40℃高温(10:00-15:00)处理7d,以同期人工气候箱32℃处理为参考,室外自然环境生长的植株为对照(CK),统计分析穗分化历期、颖花分化与退化及穗部性状在处理期以及品种间的差异。结果表明,(1)幼穗分化期高温胁迫可增加水稻穗分化天数,延迟抽穗期,显著降低水稻每穗粒数、结实率及千粒重,其中Ⅳ期高温处理的降幅最大,热敏感品种丰两优6号的下降幅度明显大于耐热性品种黄华占。(2)幼穗分化不同时期高温处理对水稻颖花形成的影响不同,除II期处理黄华占颖花分化增加外,I期和II期高温主要抑制颖花分化,此期高温均可导致水稻颖花显著减少。Ⅲ期和IV期高温胁迫将加剧颖花退化,退化率达67%以上,且热敏感性品种退化幅度大于耐热性品种。(3)从不同部位颖花分化与退化看,高温对二次枝梗上颖花分化与退化的影响大于一次枝梗。
URL [本文引用: 2]
全球气候变暖导致气温升高，极端高温出现频率增加，严重影响水稻产量。孕穗期、抽穗扬花期、灌浆结实期是水稻高温敏感时期。综述了水稻高温敏感期高温影响其产量形成的研究进展。高温影响花粉发育、花药开裂和颖花育性等, 也影响到同化物积累与转运、籽粒灌浆和淀粉合成等生理生化过程，最终导致结实率下降和产量降低。从现有研究看，结实率和籽粒产量是水稻耐热性鉴定的两个主要农艺指标。综合已有的研究，提出了遗传改良、肥水管理优化、人工辅助授粉和生长调节物质应用是减缓水稻高温伤害的可能措施。
URL [本文引用: 2]
全球气候变暖导致气温升高，极端高温出现频率增加，严重影响水稻产量。孕穗期、抽穗扬花期、灌浆结实期是水稻高温敏感时期。综述了水稻高温敏感期高温影响其产量形成的研究进展。高温影响花粉发育、花药开裂和颖花育性等, 也影响到同化物积累与转运、籽粒灌浆和淀粉合成等生理生化过程，最终导致结实率下降和产量降低。从现有研究看，结实率和籽粒产量是水稻耐热性鉴定的两个主要农艺指标。综合已有的研究，提出了遗传改良、肥水管理优化、人工辅助授粉和生长调节物质应用是减缓水稻高温伤害的可能措施。
DOI:10.3389/fpls.2017.01908URLPMID:29167676 [本文引用: 1]
of a blower, a heater and a pipe. The warm air generated by the heater is pushed by the blower through the pipe and exists the pipe through the small holes into the plots surrounded by sunshine plates. The warm air diffuses from the bottom to up. It can nullify the effects of the outside wind flow much more effectively than the FATI. Because of these factors, we conducted a two-year field experiment with three elevated-temperature treatments via the open-top hot-blast system was conducted in the central and southern regions of China in 2015 and 2016. Our objectives were to investigate the interannual differences in rice performances under elevated temperature (by 65271C) and the response of four widely planted indica rice varieties to elevated temperature with respect to grain yield as well as the causes of those responses under field conditions.
DOI:10.1626/pps.14.89URL [本文引用: 1]
Global warming may reduce rice yield through poor pollination caused by high temperatures at flowering. The dominant parameter controlling the pollination stability in rice cultivars at high temperatures was studied. We examined the effects of a high daytime temperature (35.0 degrees C, 37.5 degrees C, 40.0 degrees C) and its duration (1, 3, 5 days) on the percentage of dehisced thecae, the length of dehiscence in the basal part of the theca for pollen dispersal, and pollination stability. The percentage of sufficiently pollinated florets (%SPF) decreased with the increase in daytime temperature and the duration of treatment. At a daytime temperature of 37.5 degrees C, %SPF varied widely among the cultivars and was highly correlated with the length of dehiscence formed at the basal part of the theca (r=0.930, P < 0.01, n=6) and the percentage of dehisced thecae (r=0.868, P < 0.05, n=6). The factor that better explained the variation in %SPF shifted from the length of the basal dehiscence to the percentage of dehisced thecae with increasing duration of high-temperature treatment. Thus, the process preventing pollination shifted from pollen release to anther dehiscence with the increase of exposure to a high temperature.
URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2011.03.014URL [本文引用: 1]
High temperature during grain filling period has been reported to decrease the grain filling duration, leading to the lower grain weight and yield of rice. Two experiments in the phytotron and field were carried out to test the hypothesis that the leaf senescence of rice plants may determine the grain filling duration under high temperature. In the phytotron experiment in 2008, rice plants of a japonica cultivar “Ilpumbyeo” were subjected to three minimum/maximum (mean) temperature regimes of 11/19 (15), 17/25 (21), and 23/31 °C (27 °C). In the field experiment, rice seedlings of the same rice cultivar were transplanted on May 6th and June 19th in 2009 and the mean temperatures during the grain filling period were 24.4 and 21.9 °C, respectively. Both experiments revealed consistently that high temperature increased the rates of grain filling and leaf senescence while it reduced the durations of them. However, grain filling was terminated earlier than complete leaf senescence, the time gap being greater at higher temperature. In addition, the fraction of dry matter partitioning to the leaf sheath + culm resumed to increase following the termination of grain filling under high temperature, indicating that leaves were still maintaining photosynthetic capacity and supplying assimilates into the other plant tissues except grain even after the termination of grain filling. These findings suggest that an early termination of grain filling in temperate rice under high temperature was not resulted from the lack of assimilate owing to the early leaf senescence but from the loss of sink activity owing to the earlier senescence of panicle.
DOI:10.1016/j.plaphy.2017.03.011URLPMID:28324683 [本文引用: 1]
Rice is highly sensitive to temperature stress (cold and heat), particularly during the reproductive and grain-filling stages. In this review, we discuss the effects of low- and high-temperature sensitivity in rice at various reproductive stages (from meiosis to grain development) and propose strategies for improving the tolerance of rice to terminal thermal stress. Cold stress impacts reproductive development through (i) delayed heading, due to its effect on anther respiration, which increases sucrose accumulation, protein denaturation and asparagine levels, and decreases proline accumulation, (ii) pollen sterility owing to tapetal hypertrophy and related nutrient imbalances, (iii) reduced activity of cell wall bound invertase in the tapetum of rice anthers, (iv) impaired fertilization due to inhibited anther dehiscence, stigma receptivity and ability of the pollen tube to germinate through the style towards the ovary, and (v) floret sterility, which increases grain abortion, restricts grain size, and thus reduces grain yield. Heat stress affects grain formation and development through (i) poor anther dehiscence due to restricted closure of the locules, leading to reduced pollen dispersal and fewer pollen on the stigma, (ii) changes in pollen proteins resulting in significant reductions in pollen viability and pollen tube growth, leading to spikelet sterility, (iii) delay in heading, (iv) reduced starch biosynthesis in developing grain, which reduces starch accumulation, (v) increased chalkiness of grain with irregular and round-shaped starch granules, and (vi) a shortened grain-filling period resulting in low grain weight. However, physiological and biotechnological tools, along with integrated management and adaptation options, as well as conventional breeding, can help to develop new rice genotypes possessing better grain yield under thermal stress during reproductive and grain-filling phases.
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2013.30238URL [本文引用: 1]
光是影响植物生长发育重要的环境因子之一。随着全球气候的异常, 水稻生育期内阴雨寡照天气增多, 太阳辐照减少, 弱光会对水稻生长发育产生不利影响。本文综述了国内外有关弱光对水稻营养生长、避阴反应、光合作用特性、产量形成和品质等方面的影响。水稻营养生长的各个方面都受弱光影响, 包括株高、分蘖、根系、叶片及其气孔和叶绿素等的发育。最重要的是弱光通过影响光合作用, 进而影响干物质积累与分配, 从而导致水稻产量和品质降低。光不仅为植物光合作用提供能量, 还是一种信号物质, 植物通过光受体感受光环境包括光质、光强和光向等的变化来调控自身形态建成。遮阴同样能导致弱光。遮阴后, 植物光敏色素感受到环境中红光和远红光比例的变化, 从而引起株高增加、节间伸长、分枝减少和加速开花等一系列反应, 这些称为避阴反应。本文探讨了在弱光对作物生长发育影响的研究中使用不同遮阴材质对光质的影响。目前水稻避阴反应研究较少, 本文讨论了水稻光敏色素基因及拟南芥中鉴定的与光信号相关的转录因子可能在水稻生产中的应用。对水稻在生育期内遇弱光环境时提出了相应的防治对策, 并分析了当前研究中存在的问题和不足, 指出了今后进一步研究的方向。
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2013.30238URL [本文引用: 1]
光是影响植物生长发育重要的环境因子之一。随着全球气候的异常, 水稻生育期内阴雨寡照天气增多, 太阳辐照减少, 弱光会对水稻生长发育产生不利影响。本文综述了国内外有关弱光对水稻营养生长、避阴反应、光合作用特性、产量形成和品质等方面的影响。水稻营养生长的各个方面都受弱光影响, 包括株高、分蘖、根系、叶片及其气孔和叶绿素等的发育。最重要的是弱光通过影响光合作用, 进而影响干物质积累与分配, 从而导致水稻产量和品质降低。光不仅为植物光合作用提供能量, 还是一种信号物质, 植物通过光受体感受光环境包括光质、光强和光向等的变化来调控自身形态建成。遮阴同样能导致弱光。遮阴后, 植物光敏色素感受到环境中红光和远红光比例的变化, 从而引起株高增加、节间伸长、分枝减少和加速开花等一系列反应, 这些称为避阴反应。本文探讨了在弱光对作物生长发育影响的研究中使用不同遮阴材质对光质的影响。目前水稻避阴反应研究较少, 本文讨论了水稻光敏色素基因及拟南芥中鉴定的与光信号相关的转录因子可能在水稻生产中的应用。对水稻在生育期内遇弱光环境时提出了相应的防治对策, 并分析了当前研究中存在的问题和不足, 指出了今后进一步研究的方向。
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.332URL [本文引用: 2]
DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1374-6URL [本文引用: 2]
We used meta-analysis to synthesize 125 studies assessing the responses of rice production to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), and the interaction of elevated [CO2] with...
DOI:10.1111/gcb.13065URLPMID:26279285 [本文引用: 2]
Abstract Elevated CO2 and temperature strongly affect crop production, but understanding of the crop response to combined CO2 and temperature increases under field conditions is still limited while data are scarce. We grew wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and rice ( Oryza sativa L.) under two levels of CO2 (ambient and enriched up to 50002μmol02mol611) and two levels of canopy temperature (ambient and increased by 1.5–2.002°C) in free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) systems and carried out a detailed growth and yield component analysis during two growing seasons for both crops. An increase in CO2 resulted in higher grain yield, whereas an increase in temperature reduced grain yield, in both crops. An increase in CO2 was unable to compensate for the negative impact of an increase in temperature on biomass and yield of wheat and rice. Yields of wheat and rice were decreased by 10–12% and 17–35%, respectively, under the combination of elevated CO2 and temperature. The number of filled grains per unit area was the most important yield component accounting for the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature in wheat and rice. Our data showed complex treatment effects on the interplay between preheading duration, nitrogen uptake, tillering, leaf area index, and radiation-use efficiency, and thus on yield components and yield. Nitrogen uptake before heading was crucial in minimizing yield loss due to climate change in both crops. For rice, however, a breeding strategy to increase grain number per m2 and % filled grains (or to reduce spikelet sterility) at high temperature is also required to prevent yield reduction under conditions of global change.
DOI:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2010.08.009URL [本文引用: 2]
In future climates, rice could more frequently be subjected to simultaneous high temperature and water stress during sensitive developmental stages such as flowering. In this study, five rice genotypes were exposed to high temperature, water stress and combined high temperature and water stress during flowering to quantify their response through spikelet fertility. Microscopic analyses revealed significant differences in anther dehiscence between treatments and genotypes, with a moderately high association with the number of germinated pollen grains on the stigma. There was a strong relationship between spikelet fertility and the number of germinated pollen on stigmas. Although, all three stress treatments resulted in spikelet sterility, high-temperature stress caused the highest sterility in all five genotypes. A cumulative linear decline in spikelet fertility with increasing duration of independent high-temperature stress and in combination with water stress was quantified. Better anther dehiscence, higher in vivo pollen germination, and higher spikelet fertility were observed in both the N22 accessions compared with IR64, Apo and Moroberekan under high temperature, water stress and combined stress, indicating its ability to tolerate multiple abiotic stresses. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI:10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0URL [本文引用: 1]
Abstract Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.
DOI:10.1002/joc.3892URL [本文引用: 3]
ABSTRACTThe recent warming trends have led to rising concerns on how the changing climate has been altering and will continue to alter agroclimatic conditions in China. In this study, high resolution climate scenarios from regional climate models (RCMs) are used as input to the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) model for China and to compute a comprehensive set of agroclimatic indicators. Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions are also discussed with respect to (1) RCM outputs for different emission scenarios, and (2) differences in projections obtained from two different RCMs under the same emission scenario. The results indicate a significant extension of the crop growing period in tandem with the rising temperatures during the crop growing season, which may lead to increase in multi-cropping opportunities at high latitudes and thus advance the total potential output per unit of cropland. However, the results show that the Southwest China will experience a significant reduction in the value of humidity index, implying severe challenges for future agricultural development in the region. Spatially explicit patterns of changes in future agroclimatic conditions, as revealed in this study, can be beneficial for policy-makers, farming communities and other stakeholders to assess risk factors, design adaptation and mitigation measures, and improve management practices at the local to regional scales.
URL [本文引用: 1]
【目的】气候变化已是一个全球性的问题,中国未来气候将继续变暖,这一变化将对中国的农业生产造成一定的影响。本文旨在研究未来气候变化对中国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界以及热带作物种植北界的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦种植北界指标、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界指标以及热带作物种植北界指标,采用经典的农业气候指标计算方法,分析与1950s—1980年相比,未来30年（2011—2040年）及本世纪中叶（2041—2050年）全国种植制度界限北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界、以及热带作物的种植北界的变化。【结果】（1）与1950s—1980年相比,2011—2040年和2041—2050年的一年两熟带和一年三熟带种植北界都不同程度向北移动,其中一年一熟区和一年二熟区分界线,空间位移最大的省（市）为陕西省和辽宁省,且2041—2050年种植北界北移情况更为明显;一年两熟区和一年三熟区分界线,空间位移最大的区域在云南省、贵州省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省境内,且2041—2050年种植北移情况更为明显。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下,这些区域由于气温升高种植制度由一年一熟变为一年两熟、由一年两熟变为一年三熟,区域内单位面积周年粮食产量可不同程度提高。（2）与1950s—1980年相比,2011—2040年和2041—2050年的冬小麦的种植北界在辽宁省、甘肃省和宁夏回族自治区都不同程度向北移动,在青海省冬小麦种植界限为西扩明显。在不考虑其它因素影响的前提下,该区域由于冬小麦替代春小麦可带来单位面积产量的提高。热带作物安全种植北界在广西省和广东省境内北移情况比较明显。而未来降水量的增加将使得大部分地区雨养冬小麦-夏玉
URL [本文引用: 1]
【目的】气候变化已是一个全球性的问题,中国未来气候将继续变暖,这一变化将对中国的农业生产造成一定的影响。本文旨在研究未来气候变化对中国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界以及热带作物种植北界的影响。【方法】依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦种植北界指标、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界指标以及热带作物种植北界指标,采用经典的农业气候指标计算方法,分析与1950s—1980年相比,未来30年（2011—2040年）及本世纪中叶（2041—2050年）全国种植制度界限北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界、以及热带作物的种植北界的变化。【结果】（1）与1950s—1980年相比,2011—2040年和2041—2050年的一年两熟带和一年三熟带种植北界都不同程度向北移动,其中一年一熟区和一年二熟区分界线,空间位移最大的省（市）为陕西省和辽宁省,且2041—2050年种植北界北移情况更为明显;一年两熟区和一年三熟区分界线,空间位移最大的区域在云南省、贵州省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省境内,且2041—2050年种植北移情况更为明显。在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下,这些区域由于气温升高种植制度由一年一熟变为一年两熟、由一年两熟变为一年三熟,区域内单位面积周年粮食产量可不同程度提高。（2）与1950s—1980年相比,2011—2040年和2041—2050年的冬小麦的种植北界在辽宁省、甘肃省和宁夏回族自治区都不同程度向北移动,在青海省冬小麦种植界限为西扩明显。在不考虑其它因素影响的前提下,该区域由于冬小麦替代春小麦可带来单位面积产量的提高。热带作物安全种植北界在广西省和广东省境内北移情况比较明显。而未来降水量的增加将使得大部分地区雨养冬小麦-夏玉
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.04.024URL [本文引用: 1]
Multiple cropping systems are particularly important in China to feed the 19% of the world’s population with only 8% of the arable land. Rising temperatures can dramatically affect multiple cropping systems and, as a consequence, food security in China. Here, we investigate the impacts of climate change on the northern limits and crop planting areas of multiple cropping systems in China, and estimate the impacts of the change in the crop planting areas of multiple cropping systems on the China’s crop production (maize, wheat, and rice). Based on both historical climate observations from the China Meteorological Administration and future climate A1B emission scenario (IPCC, 2007) data for China, we evaluate the effects of climate change on multiple cropping systems in China. Historical statistical crop yield and simulated crop yield by Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model) in 2011–2100 were used to quantify the crop production (maize, wheat, and rice) in China. We found that the northern limits of multiple cropping systems have been shifted northward. The projected area of cultivated land for triple-cropping system may significantly expand during the 21st century. The northern shifts resulted in a 2.2% (658,000,000t) increase in national production of three major crops (maize, wheat, and rice) during the period from 1981 to 2010, positively impacting China’s food security. Therefore, we conclude that the warming due to climate change may cause a positive impact on the crop production in China if concomitant changes adapted in multiple cropping systems take place.
DOI:10.3354/cr00802URL [本文引用: 4]
We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO2, on rice yields and production in China. Our methodology coupled the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) with the CERES (Crop Environment Resources Synthesis) rice crop model to simulate current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2100) rice yie...
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.012URL [本文引用: 3]
Uncertainties in global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios affect assessments of the impact of global warming as well as the communication of scientific results. Here, we developed a probabilistic technique to deal with the uncertainties and to simulate the impact of global warming on rice production and water use in China, against a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961–1990 values. From 20 climate scenarios output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, we used Monte Carlo analysis to develop the most likely climate-change scenarios for representative stations and derived the CERES-Rice model of [Alocilja, E.C., Ritchie, R.T., 1988. Rice simulation and its use in multicriteria optimization, IBSNAT Research Report Series 01] to simulate rice production under baseline and future climate scenarios. Adaptation options such as automatic application of irrigation and fertilization were considered, although cultivars were assumed constant over the baseline and future. After assessing representative stations across China, we projected changes in rice yield, growing period, evapotranspiration, and irrigation-water use for GMT changes of 1, 2, and 3 °C in a probabilistic way. Without consideration of CO 2-fertilization effects, our results indicate that the growing period would shorten with 100% probability; yield would decrease with a probability of 90%, 100%, and 100% for GMT change of 1, 2, and 3 °C, respectively. The median values of yield decrease ranged from 6.1% to 18.6%, 13.5% to 31.9%, and 23.6% to 40.2% for GMT changes of 1, 2, and 3 °C, respectively. According to the median values of the projected changes, evapotranspiration and irrigation water use would decrease in most of the investigated stations. If CO 2-fertilization effects were included, the rice growing period would also be reduced with 100% probability; across the stations the median values of yield changes ranged from 6110.1% to 3.3%, 6116.1% to 2.5%, and 6119.3% to 0.18% for GMT changes of 1, 2, and 3 °C, respectively. Evapotranspiration and irrigation water use would decrease more and with higher probability in comparison with the simulations without consideration of CO 2-fertilization effects. Our study presents a process-based probabilistic assessment of rice production and water use at different GMT increases, which is important for identifying which climate-change level is dangerous for food security.
DOI:10.5194/esd-9-543-2018URL [本文引用: 3]
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1701762114URLPMID:28811375 [本文引用: 2]
Abstract Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.01519URL [本文引用: 1]
选择长江中下游平原作为研究区域,按照政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES）中的A2和B2方案,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000结合,模拟基准时段（1961—1990）气候（Baseline）和2021—2050时段A2、B2情景下的水稻产量,分析未来气候变化对长江中下游水稻产量的影响。构建两种影响评估方法,重点分析增温和大气CO2肥效作用对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,不考虑CO2肥效作用时,随着温度升高,水稻生育期缩短,产量下降。A2情景下水稻生育期平均缩短4.5d,产量减少15.2%;B2情景下平均缩短3.4d,产量减少15%。其中,减产达到20%以上的区域集中在安徽中南部、湖北东南部和湖南东部地区。当考虑CO2肥效作用后,A2情景下水稻平均产量减少5.1%,B2情景平均减少5.8%。减产区域缩小且幅度降低,江西和浙江部分地区则呈现一定程度增产,但增幅〈10%。大气CO2肥效作用一定程度上可提高水稻产量,使晚稻在增温的不利影响下仍呈现不同程度的增产态势,但对单季稻和早稻的增产贡献仍不足以抵消升温的负面影响。另外,大气CO2肥效作用可有利于提高未来气候变化下水稻的稳产性。
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.01519URL [本文引用: 1]
选择长江中下游平原作为研究区域,按照政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES）中的A2和B2方案,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000结合,模拟基准时段（1961—1990）气候（Baseline）和2021—2050时段A2、B2情景下的水稻产量,分析未来气候变化对长江中下游水稻产量的影响。构建两种影响评估方法,重点分析增温和大气CO2肥效作用对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,不考虑CO2肥效作用时,随着温度升高,水稻生育期缩短,产量下降。A2情景下水稻生育期平均缩短4.5d,产量减少15.2%;B2情景下平均缩短3.4d,产量减少15%。其中,减产达到20%以上的区域集中在安徽中南部、湖北东南部和湖南东部地区。当考虑CO2肥效作用后,A2情景下水稻平均产量减少5.1%,B2情景平均减少5.8%。减产区域缩小且幅度降低,江西和浙江部分地区则呈现一定程度增产,但增幅〈10%。大气CO2肥效作用一定程度上可提高水稻产量,使晚稻在增温的不利影响下仍呈现不同程度的增产态势,但对单季稻和早稻的增产贡献仍不足以抵消升温的负面影响。另外,大气CO2肥效作用可有利于提高未来气候变化下水稻的稳产性。
DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9122-6URL [本文引用: 1]
This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within 10% of observed flowering duration and 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO 2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO 2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO 2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.
DOI:10.1007/s12665-018-7295-8URL [本文引用: 2]
In this study, the regional variations of climate extremes and its possible impact on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China were investigated. A total of 18 climate extremes indices (CEI)...
DOI:10.1002/joc.5125URL [本文引用: 1]
react-text: 480 Extreme temperature impacts on field crop are of key concern and increasingly assessed, however the studies have seldom taken into account the automatic adaptations such as shifts in planting dates, phenological dynamics and cultivars. In this present study, trial data on rice phenology, agro-meteorological hazards and yields during 1981–2009 at 120 national agro-meteorological experiment... /react-text react-text: 481 /react-text [Show full abstract]
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.020URL [本文引用: 1]
The formula used for the determination of accurate mean daily air temperature, T0, is: {equation presented}. In The climatological practice in Croatia as well as numerous Central European countries, mean daily air temperature, T1 , is calculated by using the following formula (called "official" further in the text): T1 = (T7 + T14 + 2 T21)/4. These two formulas result in different values of... [Show full abstract]
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041URL [本文引用: 1]
Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980 2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence ( = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for . Increasing exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.
DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0100.1URL [本文引用: 1]
The impact of climate change on rice productivity in China remains highly uncertain because of uncertainties from climate change scenarios, parameterizations of biophysical processes, and extreme temperature stress in crop models. Here, the Model to Capture the Crop-Weather Relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA)-Rice crop model was developed by parameterizing the process-based general crop model MCWLA for rice crop. Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique were then applied to MCWLA-Rice to analyze uncertainties in parameter estimations and to optimize parameters. Ensemble hindcasts showed that MCWLA-Rice could capture the interannual variability of the detrended historical yield series fairly well, especially over a large area. A superensemble-based probabilistic projection system (SuperEPPS) coupled to MCWLA-Rice was developed and applied to project the probabilistic changes of rice productivity and water use in eastern China under scenarios of future climate change. Results showed that across most cells in the study region, relative to 1961-90 levels, the rice yield would change on average by 7.5%-17.5% (from -10.4% to 3.0%), 0.0%-25.0% (from -26.7% to 2.1%), and from -10.0% to 25.0% (from -39.2% to -6.4%) during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, in response to climate change, with (without) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. The rice photosynthesis rate, biomass, and yield would increase as a result of increases in mean temperature, solar radiation, and CO2 concentration, although the rice development rate could accelerate particularly after the heading stage. Meanwhile, the risk of high-temperature stress on rice productivity would also increase notably with climate change. The effects of extreme temperature stress on rice productivity were explicitly parameterized and addressed in the study.
DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.02.008URL [本文引用: 1]
Extreme temperature impacts on field crop are of key concern and increasingly assessed, however the studies have seldom taken into account the automatic adaptations such as shifts in planting dates, phenological dynamics and cultivars. In this present study, trial data on rice phenology, agro-meteorological hazards and yields during 1981 2009at 120 national agro-meteorological experiment stations were used. The detailed data provide us a unique opportunity to quantify extreme temperature impacts on rice yield more precisely and in a setting with automatic adaptations. In this study, changes in an accumulated thermal index (growing degree day, GDD), a high temperature stress index (>35 C high temperature degree day, HDD), and a cold stress index (<20 C cold degree day, CDD), were firstly investigated. Then, their impacts on rice yield were further quantified by a multivariable analysis. The results showed that in the past three decades, for early rice, late rice and single rice in western part, and single rice in other parts of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, respectively, rice yield increased by 5.83%, 1.71%, 8.73% and 3.49% due to increase in GDD. Rice yield was generally more sensitive to high temperature stress than to cold temperature stress. It decreased by 0.14%, 0.32%, 0.34% and 0.14% due to increase in HDD, by contrast increased by 1.61%, 0.26%, 0.16% and 0.01% due to decrease in CDD, respectively. In addition, decreases in solar radiation reduced rice yield by 0.96%, 0.13%, 9.34% and 6.02%. In the past three decades, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and the negative impacts of decrease in solar radiation played dominant roles in determining overall climate impacts on yield. However, with climate warming in future, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and decrease in CDD will be offset by increase in HDD, resulting in overall negative climate impacts on yield. Our findings highlight the risk of heat stress on rice yield and the importance of developing integrated adaptation strategies to cope with heat stress.
DOI:10.1007/s10584-014-1136-xURL [本文引用: 2]
Temperature is the principal factor that determines rice growth, development and ultimately grain yield. In this study, normal growing-degree-days (NGDD) and killing growing-degree-days (KGDD) were used to capture the different effects of normal and extreme temperatures on rice yields, respectively. Based on these indexes, we assessed the contributions of temperature variations to county-level rice yields across China during the historical period (1980–2008), and estimated the potential exposure of rice to extreme temperature stress in the near future (2021–2050). The results showed that historical temperature variations had measurable impacts on rice yields with a distinct spatial pattern: for different regions, such variations had contributed much to the increased rice yields in Northeast China (Region I) (0.5902% yield year 611 ) and some portions of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (Region II) (0.3402% yield year 611 ), but seriously hindered the improvements of rice yields in the Sichuan Basin (SB) (610.2902% yield year 611 ) and the southern cultivation areas (Region IV) (610.1702% yield year 611 ); for the entire country, half of the contributions were positive and the other half were negative, resulting in a balance pattern with an average of 0.0102% yield year 611 . Under the RCP8.5 scenario, climate warming during 2021–2050 would substantially reduce cold stress but increase heat stress in the rice planting areas across China. For the future period, Region I, II and eastern China would be continually exposed to more severe cold stress than the other regions; Region III (including SB and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR)) would be the hot spot of heat stress.
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7216.2009.01.009URL [本文引用: 1]
在长江中下游稻区选择19个样点,将每个样点近20年(1979-1998年)的水稻产量资料及同期气象资料分为两组,一组结合当地水稻生态试验或品种区域试验资料用于CERES-Rice模型中遗传参数的调试,另一组用于检验该模型在研究区域的适用性。通过对未来气候变率变化(ΔCV)的3种假设并利用WGEN(天气生成器),将每个样点基于3种平衡GCM(大气环流模型)的CO2倍增气候变化情景文件改进为兼顾气候及其变率变化(CC+ΔCV)的9种情景文件。在上述各情景文件下分别运行CERES-Rice,并将模拟结果与本底气候(Baseline)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比(β)和产量波动系数等算法,评价了CO2有效倍增时CC+ΔCV对长江中下游稻区水稻生产的影响。结果表明,当CO2有效倍增时,随着ΔCV的增大,不同稻作制度下水稻高温热害将愈演愈烈,早稻和晚稻受低温威胁将显著减轻;水稻生长季内干湿状况较目前无明显差异,但季节性干旱和暴雨的发生频次呈增加之势;研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻生育期均明显缩短,ΔCV增大对生育期无显著影响;不论是单、双季稻,还是灌溉或雨育水稻都显著减产,其中中游稻区的减产幅度大于下游稻区,单季稻和晚稻的减产幅度大于早稻,UKMO、GISS情景下的减产幅度大于GFDL情景;研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻进一步减产,且稳产性变差,但良好的灌溉条件可以减缓水稻产量的年际波动。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7216.2009.01.009URL [本文引用: 1]
在长江中下游稻区选择19个样点,将每个样点近20年(1979-1998年)的水稻产量资料及同期气象资料分为两组,一组结合当地水稻生态试验或品种区域试验资料用于CERES-Rice模型中遗传参数的调试,另一组用于检验该模型在研究区域的适用性。通过对未来气候变率变化(ΔCV)的3种假设并利用WGEN(天气生成器),将每个样点基于3种平衡GCM(大气环流模型)的CO2倍增气候变化情景文件改进为兼顾气候及其变率变化(CC+ΔCV)的9种情景文件。在上述各情景文件下分别运行CERES-Rice,并将模拟结果与本底气候(Baseline)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比(β)和产量波动系数等算法,评价了CO2有效倍增时CC+ΔCV对长江中下游稻区水稻生产的影响。结果表明,当CO2有效倍增时,随着ΔCV的增大,不同稻作制度下水稻高温热害将愈演愈烈,早稻和晚稻受低温威胁将显著减轻;水稻生长季内干湿状况较目前无明显差异,但季节性干旱和暴雨的发生频次呈增加之势;研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻生育期均明显缩短,ΔCV增大对生育期无显著影响;不论是单、双季稻,还是灌溉或雨育水稻都显著减产,其中中游稻区的减产幅度大于下游稻区,单季稻和晚稻的减产幅度大于早稻,UKMO、GISS情景下的减产幅度大于GFDL情景;研究区域不同稻作制度下的水稻进一步减产,且稳产性变差,但良好的灌溉条件可以减缓水稻产量的年际波动。
DOI:10.1111/gcb.13961URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1111/gcb.13600URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1016/B978-0-444-53599-3.10005-8URL [本文引用: 2]
模型模拟是研究气候波动对作物影响的重要手段,也是评估未来气候变化对农业可能影响的主要途径.由于科学认识和模拟技术上的不确定性,当前的气候变化对农业潜在影响评估结果一致性很差,为农业应对气候变化的决策制定带来了极大困难.基于不同层次的影响评估中不确定性,本文从气候预估、影响评估建模过程及气候模式与作物模型的连接3个方面,系统总结了气候变化对农业影响评估中不确定性的来源及传播过程;并介绍了针对多层次、多样化的不确定性源及不确定性传播的处理技术与方法,指出了当前不确定性处理中的缺陷与不足.最后对如何准确地实施气候变化对农业影响的评估,进一步减小气候变化对农业影响评估潜在的不确定性也提出了改进的建议.
DOI:10.1016/B978-0-444-53599-3.10005-8URL [本文引用: 2]
模型模拟是研究气候波动对作物影响的重要手段,也是评估未来气候变化对农业可能影响的主要途径.由于科学认识和模拟技术上的不确定性,当前的气候变化对农业潜在影响评估结果一致性很差,为农业应对气候变化的决策制定带来了极大困难.基于不同层次的影响评估中不确定性,本文从气候预估、影响评估建模过程及气候模式与作物模型的连接3个方面,系统总结了气候变化对农业影响评估中不确定性的来源及传播过程;并介绍了针对多层次、多样化的不确定性源及不确定性传播的处理技术与方法,指出了当前不确定性处理中的缺陷与不足.最后对如何准确地实施气候变化对农业影响的评估,进一步减小气候变化对农业影响评估潜在的不确定性也提出了改进的建议.
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cbURL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.018URL [本文引用: 2]
Crop production in northern regions is projected to benefit from longer growing seasons brought on by future climate change. However, production also faces multiple challenges due to more frequent and intense extreme weather phenomena, and uncertain future prices of agricultural inputs and outputs. Extensive studies have been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on cereals yield change, but integrated assessments that also consider the management and economy of cereal farms have been rare so far. In this study, the effects of climate change-driven crop productivity change on farm level land use dynamics, input use, production management and farm income were considered from the point of view of dynamic decision making of a rational risk-averse farmer. We assessed whether a farmer can gain from improved crop yields when using adapted cultivars and managing the farm accordingly. We incorporated crop yield estimates from a process-based large area crop model (MCWLA) run with two climate scenarios into a dynamic economic model of farm management and crop rotation (DEMCROP) to investigate future input use, land use with crop rotation, economic gross margins and greenhouse gas emissions. A time span of 3062years was considered. The model accounts for the yield responses to fertilisation, crop protection, liming of field parcels, and yield losses due to monoculture. The approach resulted in a novel and necessary analysis of farm management, production and income implications of climate change adaptation under different climate and socio-economic scenarios. We analysed the effects of different climate and price scenarios at a typical cereal farm in the North Savo region, which is currently a marginal area for crop production in Finland due to its harsh climate. Crop modelling results suggest a 19–27% increase of spring cereal yields and 11–19% increase of winter wheat yields from the current level until 2042–2070. According to our economic farm level simulations, these yield increases would incentivise farmers towards more intense input use resulting in additional increase of yields by 3–8% at current prices. More land is allocated to barley and wheat, less to set-aside and oat. The economic gross margin would increase significantly from the current low levels. Greenhouse gas emissions from farms were estimated to increase with increasing production, but emissions per quantity produced (measured as feed energy units) would decrease. There is potential for sustainable intensification (SI) of crop production in the region.
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501URL [本文引用: 1]
农业是以作物生长为基础,因此,受气候变化的影响很大.我国幅员辽阔,东西和南北之间气候差 异显著.气候变化将直接导致我国主要农区水资源和热量资源时空分布格局变化.农业生产所依赖的土壤肥力和作物品种资源及其抗逆性也会在气候变化的作用下发 生变化.气候变化直接导致局部地区农业气候灾害和农业病虫害频度与强度加剧.在气候变化作用下,我国农业作物种植制度、农业生产结构和地区布局将会发生相 应的变化,导致我国粮食产量波动变化,甚至影响到国家粮食安全.因此,迫切需要深入分析气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展,提出进一步深入研究 的重点发展方向.目前,国内外围绕气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响开展了很多研究.综合进来,主要有集中在气候变化对农区水热土资源要素时空分布变化的影 响,对作物品种抗逆性、抗逆基因、品种改良的影响与适应,对作物种植制度、生产结构与地区布局的影响与适应,对农业生物灾害和非生物灾害尤其是农业旱涝灾 害发生的影响,以及对粮食产量、国家粮食安全和农业发展的影响等方面.从发展趋势看,深入开展气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研 究,科学地把握气候变化背景下水热资源条件、土壤肥力、品种资源等变化规律,揭示农业病虫害流行暴发特征和气象灾害发生机理,模拟、分析和预测气候变化对 我国农业、粮食生产和国家粮食安全的影响程度和变化趋势,具有重大的科学价值和现实意义,因而也将是气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响研究的重点发展方向.
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501URL [本文引用: 1]
农业是以作物生长为基础,因此,受气候变化的影响很大.我国幅员辽阔,东西和南北之间气候差 异显著.气候变化将直接导致我国主要农区水资源和热量资源时空分布格局变化.农业生产所依赖的土壤肥力和作物品种资源及其抗逆性也会在气候变化的作用下发 生变化.气候变化直接导致局部地区农业气候灾害和农业病虫害频度与强度加剧.在气候变化作用下,我国农业作物种植制度、农业生产结构和地区布局将会发生相 应的变化,导致我国粮食产量波动变化,甚至影响到国家粮食安全.因此,迫切需要深入分析气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展,提出进一步深入研究 的重点发展方向.目前,国内外围绕气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响开展了很多研究.综合进来,主要有集中在气候变化对农区水热土资源要素时空分布变化的影 响,对作物品种抗逆性、抗逆基因、品种改良的影响与适应,对作物种植制度、生产结构与地区布局的影响与适应,对农业生物灾害和非生物灾害尤其是农业旱涝灾 害发生的影响,以及对粮食产量、国家粮食安全和农业发展的影响等方面.从发展趋势看,深入开展气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研 究,科学地把握气候变化背景下水热资源条件、土壤肥力、品种资源等变化规律,揭示农业病虫害流行暴发特征和气象灾害发生机理,模拟、分析和预测气候变化对 我国农业、粮食生产和国家粮食安全的影响程度和变化趋势,具有重大的科学价值和现实意义,因而也将是气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响研究的重点发展方向.
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045004URL [本文引用: 1]
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.026URL
文章通过构建经济-气候模型(简称C-D-C模型),运用计量经济模型实证分析气候变化对南方水稻产量的影响,并对未来气候变化情景的影响进行了模拟评估。结果表明,气候对南方地区水稻产量有显著负影响,且气候对各区域影响存在差异,降水对华南、华中和华东地区有负的作用,而对西南地区有一定正影响;温度对西南、华南、华东和华中地区都有负的影响,未来气候变化情景对南方水稻产量的影响以减产为主,应引起政府和农户的高度重视。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出了南方地区水稻生产适应气候变化的对策建议。
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.026URL
文章通过构建经济-气候模型(简称C-D-C模型),运用计量经济模型实证分析气候变化对南方水稻产量的影响,并对未来气候变化情景的影响进行了模拟评估。结果表明,气候对南方地区水稻产量有显著负影响,且气候对各区域影响存在差异,降水对华南、华中和华东地区有负的作用,而对西南地区有一定正影响;温度对西南、华南、华东和华中地区都有负的影响,未来气候变化情景对南方水稻产量的影响以减产为主,应引起政府和农户的高度重视。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出了南方地区水稻生产适应气候变化的对策建议。
DOI:10.1007/s00376-999-0032-1URL
在利用田间试验资料对双季稻生长动力（态）模拟模型进行验证的基础上，将基于GCMs的输出和历史气候资料相结合的气候变化情景与双季稻模式相连接，就气候变暖对我国江南双季稻主产区水稻生产的可能影响进行网格化定量模拟和客观评估，并就调整对策（改变播种日期和种植品种）在减缓气候变暖对双季稻生产影响中的作用作了初步的探讨。结果表明，在未来可能的气候变化情景下，若维持目前的品种和生产技术措施，双季稻产量将有不同程度的下降。产量变化的地域分布既有一定的规律性，又体现出气候变化影响的复杂性。适应对策分析表明，改种长生育期的
DOI:10.1007/s00376-999-0032-1URL
在利用田间试验资料对双季稻生长动力（态）模拟模型进行验证的基础上，将基于GCMs的输出和历史气候资料相结合的气候变化情景与双季稻模式相连接，就气候变暖对我国江南双季稻主产区水稻生产的可能影响进行网格化定量模拟和客观评估，并就调整对策（改变播种日期和种植品种）在减缓气候变暖对双季稻生产影响中的作用作了初步的探讨。结果表明，在未来可能的气候变化情景下，若维持目前的品种和生产技术措施，双季稻产量将有不同程度的下降。产量变化的地域分布既有一定的规律性，又体现出气候变化影响的复杂性。适应对策分析表明，改种长生育期的
DOI:10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0URL
AbstractClimate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3–1102% under A2 scenario and +402% under B2 scenario during 2030–2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +2402% in 2009 to 614.502% and +10.202% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.102% and +20.002% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.
DOI:10.1007/s10584-014-1129-9URL
Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO 2 fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.302% in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.202%. When the effect of CO 2 fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.902%. When constant GS and CO 2 fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.602%. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.2202t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.4402t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.6502t/ha due to CO 2 fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.
