中国种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性分析

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伍国勇^{1, 3,},
陈莹¹,
孙小钧^2,,
1.贵州大学经济学院(西部中心) 　贵阳　550025
2.南京农业大学经济管理学院　南京　210095
3.贵州基层社会治理创新高端智库　贵阳　550025
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(18CSH036)和贵州大学一流学科建设项目(GNYL[2017]002)资助

详细信息

作者简介:伍国勇, 主要研究方向为农业农村发展与生态经济问题。E-mail: wgyung@qq.com

通讯作者:孙小钧, 主要研究方向为资源与环境经济。E-mail: 2281739924@qq.com

中图分类号:F062.2; S19

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出版历程

收稿日期:2021-04-14
录用日期:2021-05-27
网络出版日期:2021-06-22
刊出日期:2021-10-01

Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China

WU Guoyong^{1, 3,},
CHEN Ying¹,
SUN Xiaojun^2,,
1. Economics School, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China
2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
3. High-end Think Tank on Grassroots Social Governance Innovation in Guizhou, Guiyang 550025, China
Funds:This study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (18CSH036) and the First Class Discipline Construction Project of Guizhou University (GNYL[2017]002)

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Corresponding author:E-mail: 2281739924@qq.com

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摘要
摘要:农业碳排放阻碍绿色农业转型, 探索种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性, 可为低碳农业良性发展提供有益指导。本文同时考虑碳源和碳汇, 测算2002—2018年中国31省、市、自治区种植业碳补偿率, 采用Dagum基尼系数分解法考察地区差异, 采用非参数估计中的核密度估计动态演进过程, 借助σ收敛、绝对β收敛及条件β收敛检视收敛性特征。结果表明: 1)种植业碳补偿率整体相对差异扩大趋势明显。东部地区相对差异扩大, 中部地区和西部地区变化较小; 东—西部、东—中部地区之间增加, 中—西部地区之间减小; 地区间差距是造成种植业碳补偿率差异的主要原因。2)中国种植业碳补偿率整体呈逐年增大的变动态势, 碳补偿率高值省份有所增多, 省域种植业碳补偿率差异有先减后增的趋势。东部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减少, 从两极分化演变为单极化; 中部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减小; 西部各省种植业碳补偿率变化较为稳定。3)全国及东、西部地区的种植业碳补偿率不存在σ收敛, 而中部地区不甚明显; 全国、东、中及西部地区绝对和条件β收敛均显著。本文的结论强调, 中国种植业碳补偿率的区域异质性凸显, 其时序变化趋势总体上升; 省域间的“追赶效应”显现, 地区间碳补偿率增长的趋同态势明显。因此, 合理制定区域农业绿色发展策略, 积极发挥区域减排潜力是提高种植业碳补偿率的关键。
关键词:种植业; 碳补偿率/
区域差异/
动态演进/
收敛性
Abstract:Global warming is an increasingly serious problem. Carbon emissions from agriculture had hindered its transition to green agriculture, and carbon emissions from the planting industry cannot be ignored. Reducing the regional differences and clarifying dynamic evolution and convergence of the carbon compensation rates in the planting industry are conducive to the benign development of low-carbon agriculture. At present, few studies consider both agricultural carbon sources and carbon sinks, and an in-depth analysis of the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry is lacking. Existing studies on the agricultural carbon compensation rate focus only on the spatial effect of agricultural carbon but do not effectively analyze the sources and convergence of regional differences in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry. Therefore, this study considered both the carbon sources and the carbon sinks and estimated the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in 31 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous districts) from 2002 to 2018. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method was used to measure and decompose the regional differences, the dynamic evolution process of kernel density with non-parametric estimation was investigated, and the σ-convergence, absolute β-convergence, and conditional β-convergence models were used to test the convergence characteristics of the carbon compensation rate. The results were as follows: (1) The overall relative difference in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry tended to expand. The relative differences in the eastern region expanded, while the relative differences in the central and western regions showed only little change. The relative differences between the eastern and western regions and the eastern and central regions increased, whereas that between the central and western regions decreased. The regional differences were the main reasons for the differences in the carbon compensation rates of the planting industry. (2) The carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in China increased annually, and the number of provinces with high carbon compensation rates increased. The provincial difference in carbon compensation rate first decreased and then increased. The carbon compensation rate in the eastern provinces increased gradually, and the inter-provincial absolute gap decreased, changing from polarization to unipolarization. The carbon compensation rate in the central provinces increased gradually, and the absolute gap decreased. The carbon compensation rate in the western provinces was relatively stable and showed little change. (3) There was no σ-convergence in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in the whole country and the eastern and western regions, but it was not obviously observed in the central region. The absolute and conditional β-convergences were significant in the whole country and the eastern, central, and western regions. The results of this study emphasize that regional heterogeneity in the carbon compensation rate of China’s planting industry is prominent and that the temporal trend of carbon compensation rate is generally increasing. The “catch-up effect” among provinces and the convergence trend of the carbon compensation rate growth among regions are apparent. In the future, it will be important to improve the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry to better formulate a green development strategy for regional agriculture and actively reduce regional emissions.
Key words:Planting industry; Carbon compensation rate/
Regional disparity/
Dynamic evolution/
Convergences

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图12002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率地区内基尼系数的变化趋势
Figure1.Trends in the Gini coefficient within the region of carbon compensation rate of crops production in China from 2002 to 2018

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图22002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率地区间基尼系数变化趋势
Figure2.Trends in interregional Gini coefficients of carbon compensation rate of crops production in China from 2002 to 2018

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图32002—2018年种植业碳补偿率地区差距来源贡献率变化趋势
Figure3.Trends in the contribution rate in sources of regional disparities of the planting industry from 2002 to 2018

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图42002—2018年全国(a)及东部(b)、中部(c)、西部(d)地区种植业碳补偿率核密度变化
Figure4.Changes of kernel density of carbon compensation rate of crops prodcution of the nation (a), and east (b), central (c), and west (d) regions of China from 2002 to 2018

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表1主要农作物碳吸收率、平均含水量、经济系数和单位碳吸收量
Table1.Carbon absorption rates, average water contents, economic coefficients and carbon absorption rates of major crops

作物种类 Crop species	主要农作物 Main crop	碳吸收率 Carbon absorption rate	平均含水率 Average moisture content (%)	经济系数 Economic coefficient
粮食作物 Food crops	水稻 Rice	0.414	12	0.45
	小麦 Wheat	0.485	12	0.40
	玉米 Corn	0.471	13	0.40
	高粱 Sorghum	0.450	13	0.35
	谷子 Millet	0.450	14	0.40
	薯类 Tubers	0.423	70	0.70
	豆类 Beans	0.450	13	0.34
经济作物 Grops	棉花 Cotton	0.450	8	0.10
	油菜籽 Rapeseed	0.450	10	0.25
	花生 Peanut	0.450	10	0.43
	甘蔗 Sugarcane	0.450	50	0.50
	甜菜 Beetroots	0.407	75	0.70
	烟草 Tobacco	0.450	85	0.55
园艺作物 Garden crops	蔬菜 Vegetables	0.450	90	0.60
园艺作物 Garden crops	瓜果 Fruits	0.450	90	0.70

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表22002—2018年中国省域种植业碳补偿率
Table2.Carbon compensation rate of crops production in each province (city, autonomous region) of China from 2002 to 2018

区域 Region	省份 Province (city, autonomous region)	年份 Year
区域 Region	省份 Province (city, autonomous region)	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018
东部 East	北京 Beijing	5.56	5.51	6.68	7.28	6.98	7.38	5.70	5.73	4.80
	天津 Tianjin	6.33	6.58	6.92	6.73	6.75	6.74	7.03	7.56	11.37
	河北 Hebei	6.50	5.50	5.83	6.80	6.95	7.45	7.54	8.26	9.08
	上海 Shanghai	4.27	4.08	4.02	3.90	3.82	4.25	4.03	3.81	4.33
	江苏 Jiangsu	8.70	8.84	9.07	9.25	9.05	9.20	9.40	9.30	9.83
	浙江 Zhejiang	4.04	3.81	3.98	3.64	3.57	3.58	3.49	3.52	3.09
	辽宁 Liaoning	7.60	8.68	8.26	8.33	7.32	8.30	6.80	8.13	9.19
	福建 Fujian	4.31	4.30	4.12	3.91	3.99	4.07	4.16	4.13	3.55
	山东 Shandong	6.62	7.41	7.70	8.28	8.15	8.45	8.62	8.91	10.20
	广东 Guangdong	7.88	7.34	8.05	7.32	7.55	8.05	8.10	8.17	7.78
	海南 Hainan	7.60	8.12	7.03	6.78	5.33	5.92	5.53	4.52	4.16
	平均 Mean	6.31	6.38	6.51	6.56	6.32	6.67	6.40	6.55	7.04
中部 Central	山西 Shanxi	6.13	7.25	7.54	7.22	7.27	8.07	8.32	8.22	8.76
	吉林 Jilin	11.29	11.91	12.71	12.17	11.20	12.46	12.51	12.75	12.82
	黑龙江 Heilongjiang	7.40	7.24	6.83	8.08	8.56	9.13	9.49	9.09	11.48
	安徽 Anhui	7.87	7.78	8.16	8.28	8.07	8.47	8.64	8.94	10.04
	江西 Jiangxi	6.66	6.88	7.27	7.31	7.12	7.53	7.68	7.65	8.18
	河南 Henan	9.02	9.11	10.32	10.73	10.47	10.57	10.45	10.75	12.18
	湖北 Hubei	7.07	7.70	7.83	7.79	7.80	8.00	8.23	8.02	8.69
	湖南 Hunan	7.43	7.46	7.99	7.90	7.93	8.10	7.92	8.00	8.30
	平均 Mean	7.86	8.17	8.58	8.69	8.55	9.04	9.16	9.18	10.06
西部 Weast	内蒙古 Inner Mongolia	6.30	6.36	6.67	7.47	7.01	7.81	7.94	7.33	9.55
	广西 Guangxi	13.43	13.70	16.67	19.35	17.09	17.95	18.41	17.08	17.45
	重庆 Chongqing	6.55	6.98	6.27	7.41	7.30	7.01	7.05	7.23	6.92
	四川 Sichuan	7.90	8.02	7.31	8.05	8.18	8.18	8.30	8.48	8.98
	贵州 Guizhou	6.19	6.67	6.80	6.29	6.09	5.68	5.69	5.72	5.39
	云南 Yunnan	8.30	8.04	8.06	8.20	7.39	8.02	8.01	7.67	8.37
	西藏 Tibet	5.21	5.16	5.12	4.83	4.15	3.79	3.46	3.26	3.49
	陕西 Shaanxi	6.31	6.83	7.33	7.33	7.03	7.27	6.99	7.03	6.97
	甘肃 Gansu	4.43	4.55	4.33	4.23	4.20	4.33	4.27	4.07	4.81
	青海 Qinghai	5.45	5.69	5.18	6.29	5.71	5.42	5.03	4.78	4.71
	宁夏 Ningxia	6.15	5.80	6.20	5.95	6.06	6.39	6.68	6.64	6.85
	新疆 Xinjiang	8.27	8.33	8.32	9.19	8.96	9.97	8.82	8.52	9.71
平均 Mean		7.04	7.18	7.35	7.88	7.43	7.65	7.55	7.32	7.77
鉴于数据的可获得性, 未包括港澳台地区。In view of the availability of the data, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not included.

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表32002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率基尼系数及其分解
Table3.Gini coefficient and decomposition of carbon compensation rate of crops production of China from 2002 to 2018

年份 Year	全国 Nation	地区内 Within the region			地区间 Interregional			贡献率 Contribution rate (%)
年份 Year	全国 Nation	东部 East	中部 Central	西部 West	东部—中部 East-Central	东部—西部 East-West	中部—西部 Central-West	地区内 Within the region	地区间 Interregional	超变密度 Hypervariable density
2002	0.144	0.136	0.100	0.154	0.133	0.150	0.171	32.045	32.105	35.851
2003	0.147	0.151	0.100	0.144	0.145	0.157	0.179	31.603	36.380	32.017
2004	0.151	0.157	0.089	0.154	0.144	0.160	0.158	31.570	34.580	33.850
2005	0.151	0.153	0.102	0.148	0.150	0.157	0.165	31.339	38.818	29.843
2006	0.165	0.148	0.106	0.183	0.147	0.171	0.173	31.543	35.130	33.327
2007	0.177	0.167	0.094	0.205	0.152	0.196	0.166	32.352	33.207	34.441
2008	0.173	0.152	0.096	0.206	0.146	0.188	0.162	32.150	34.446	33.404
2009	0.168	0.150	0.083	0.202	0.139	0.184	0.144	32.065	33.719	34.216
2010	0.171	0.156	0.086	0.199	0.147	0.185	0.161	31.469	37.530	31.001
2011	0.182	0.157	0.089	0.223	0.147	0.197	0.150	31.639	35.003	33.359
2012	0.179	0.155	0.088	0.220	0.146	0.195	0.149	31.683	35.681	32.636
2013	0.189	0.164	0.094	0.233	0.154	0.206	0.149	31.779	34.741	33.480
2014	0.190	0.168	0.086	0.224	0.162	0.203	0.149	30.826	39.833	29.341
2015	0.190	0.177	0.090	0.218	0.166	0.204	0.147	30.767	39.627	29.606
2016	0.191	0.180	0.091	0.218	0.164	0.206	0.160	30.872	37.040	32.087
2017	0.217	0.224	0.111	0.218	0.203	0.228	0.160	29.702	40.566	29.732
2018	0.215	0.233	0.096	0.227	0.196	0.236	0.156	30.693	34.784	34.523
均值 Mean	0.176	0.166	0.094	0.199	0.155	0.190	0.159	31.417	36.070	32.513

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表42002—2018年中国不同区域种植业碳补偿率σ收敛系数
Table4.σ convergence coefficient of carbon compensation rate of crops production in different regions of China from 2002 to 2018

年份 Year	全国 Nation	东部 East	中部 Central	西部 West
2002	0.2805	0.2533	0.2069	0.3323
2003	0.2805	0.2847	0.2076	0.2953
2004	0.2907	0.2897	0.2023	0.3296
2005	0.2983	0.2824	0.2262	0.3277
2006	0.3412	0.2776	0.2292	0.4307
2007	0.3832	0.3113	0.1938	0.4936
2008	0.3767	0.2938	0.2054	0.4924
2009	0.3544	0.2824	0.1666	0.4685
2010	0.3507	0.2942	0.1746	0.4526
2011	0.3647	0.2994	0.1880	0.4839
2012	0.3633	0.2920	0.1849	0.4809
2013	0.3807	0.3074	0.1991	0.5057
2014	0.3834	0.3089	0.1776	0.5034
2015	0.3731	0.3294	0.1833	0.4743
2016	0.3746	0.3399	0.1901	0.4782
2017	0.4034	0.4217	0.2213	0.4598
2018	0.3968	0.4365	0.1854	0.4702

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表52002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率绝对β收敛结果
Table5.Absolutely β convergence results of carbon compensation rate of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018

变量 Variable	全国 Nation	东部 East	中部 Central	西部 West
β	?0.292^***(?7.931)	?0.140^**(?2.449)	?0.442^***(?5.060)	?0.400^***(?6.252)
常数项 Constant term	0.671^***(9.335)	0.319^***(3.011)	1.006^***(5.599)	0.927^***(7.410)
样本量 Sample size	496	176	128	192
R²	0.0307	0.0648	0.1764	0.0568
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为t统计量。, and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic.

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表62002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率条件β收敛结果
Table6.Conditions β convergence results of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018

变量 Variable	全国 Nation	东部 East	中部 Central	西部 West
β	?0.413^*** (?10.401)	?0.409^***(?5.813)	?0.791^***(?7.986)	?0.445^***(?6.496)
农业财政支出 Agricultural financial expenditure	0.003(0.932)	0.012^**(2.193)	?0.001(?0.206)	?0.000(?0.051)
城镇化率 Urbanization rate	?0.000(?0.201)	0.003(1.574)	0.000(0.040)	?0.002(?0.700)
产业结构 Industrial structure	0.009^***(3.395)	0.007(1.015)	0.011^***(2.417)	0.003(0.351)
农业机械化 Agriculture mechanization	0.012(0.958)	0.027(0.582)	0.075^***(3.387)	0.016(0.786)
农户文化程度 Farmer education level	?0.112(?0.933)	0.089(0.367)	?0.010(?0.036)	?0.058 (?0.285)
劳动力非农转移 Non-agricultural transfer of labor force	?0.047^* (?1.669)	?0.134^** (?2.467)	?0.014(?0.484)	?0.051 (?0.602)
农业经营规模 Agricultural operation scale	0.247^***(5.381)	0.399^***(6.229)	0.078(0.619)	0.125(1.000)
农业经济发展水平 Agricultural economic development	?0.096^** (?2.476)	?0.280^***(?3.841)	0.076(0.988)	0.029(0.289)
常数项 Constant term	1.908^***(5.236)	3.037^***(3.966)	0.552(0.760)	1.306(1.444)
样本量 Sample size	496	176	128	192
R²	0.0193	0.0080	0.1068	0.0440
*、和分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为 t 统计量。, and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic.

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