王连喜^{1, 2,,},
卢媛媛¹,
李琪^{1, 2},
胡正华¹,
吴东丽³,
张阳¹,
王田¹
1.江苏省农业气象重点实验室 南京 210044
2.江苏省大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心 南京 210044
3.中国气象局气象探测中心 北京 100081
基金项目: 公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY201506001


详细信息

作者简介:王连喜, 主要从事农业气象与生态气象研究。E-mail:wlx4533@sina.com

中图分类号:S512.1

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收稿日期:2017-09-15
录用日期:2017-11-16
刊出日期:2018-04-01

Spatio-temporal analysis of winter wheat yield gaps in Henan Province using AEZ model

WANG Lianxi^{1, 2,,},
LU Yuanyuan¹,
LI Qi^{1, 2},
HU Zhenghua¹,
WU Dongli³,
ZHANG Yang¹,
WANG Tian¹
1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China
2. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of At-mospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3. Meteorological Observation Center of China Mete-orological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major Projects)GYHY201506001


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Corresponding author:WANG Lianxi, E-mail: wlx4533@sina.com

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摘要
摘要:各种产量差的分析可以揭示产量的提升空间及研究区域内各种限制因子对产量提高的限制作用。为研究气候变化背景下，各气候要素对冬小麦产量差的影响，本文以河南省为研究区域并划分为5个类型区（Ⅰ，豫北种植区；Ⅱ，豫东种植区；Ⅲ，浅山丘陵盆地种植区；Ⅳ，淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区；Ⅴ，豫南稻茬麦区）利用14个气象站点的资料，运用AEZ模型计算得到1961-2013年该省的冬小麦生产潜力，再根据产量差法计算得到YG_1-2（光合生产潜力与光温生产潜力的差距）、YG_2-3（光温生产潜力与气候生产潜力的差距）以及YG_2-a（光温生产潜力与大田平均产量的差距）3个水平的产量差。研究结果表明，1961-2013年河南省冬小麦光合生产潜力下降，光温生产潜力提高，气候生产潜力基本不变。对大田平均产量的分析表明，14个站点平均产量存在较大差异，冬小麦产量总体逐渐增长。从时间变化上看，河南省冬小麦YG_1-2总体呈现出递减趋势；YG_2-3差距呈现出"Ⅴ型"，谷值在1981-1990年；Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅴ区YG_2-a呈现递减趋势，而Ⅲ和Ⅳ区则呈现先增加再减少的趋势。从空间变化上看，河南省冬小麦YG_1-2和YG_2-3自北向南递减，而YG_2-a自东向西递增。各区域冬小麦增产潜力的排序为：Ⅲ区> Ⅴ区> Ⅳ区> Ⅱ区> Ⅰ区。农学因素是限制当地冬小麦产量差缩小的主要因素，通过改善农学因素，如：改良更新冬小麦品种、提升现代农业生产技术、合理使用农药化肥、合理布局优质小麦区域等，可缩小该区域冬小麦产量差距。
关键词:冬小麦/
AEZ模型/
光合生产潜力/
光温生产潜力/
气候生产潜力/
产量差/
增产潜力/
农学因素
Abstract:Global climate change has become one of the most severe environmental problems facing human society. Agriculture is among the sectors with the most sensitive response to climate change. The analysis of yield gaps could reveal the factors limiting the growth and production of crops in various regions. Henan Province is the most important commodity grain base in China, with rich climatic resources and remarkable climate change. Analysis of yield gaps and change trend of winter wheat yield in Henan Province are critical for understanding the impact of climate change on the potential productivity of winter wheat in the province. It also can be used to draw on advantages and avoid disadvantages of climatic change, making full and rational use of climatic resources of winter wheat. Current researches on the impact of climate change on crop yield gaps have often focused on large-scale analysis, few people divided the study area into small pieces. To improve the accuracy of simulated effects of climate change, Henan was divided into five planting areas, which were northern Henan planting area (Ⅰ), eastern Henan planting area (Ⅱ), shallow mountain hilly basin planting area (Ⅲ), Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area (Ⅳ) and southern Henan planting area (Ⅴ). Data obtained from 14 meteorological stations were used in AEZ model to simulate potential productivities of winter wheat for 1961-2013 in Henan Province. Then yield gaps were calculated, which were gap between photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity (YG_1-2), gap between light-temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity (YG_2-3) and gap between light-temperature potential productivity and average field yield (YG_2-a). The results showed that photosynthetic potential productivity of winter wheat in Henan Province decreased in 1961-2013. The light-temperature potential productivity increased and climate potential productivity remained basically unchanged. Analysis of average field yield showed significant differences in average outputs at 14 meteorological stations and the trend in winter wheat output gradually increased. YG_1-2 of winter wheat decreased, while YG_2-3 followed a Ⅴ-shaped trend with the valley occurring in 1981-1990. YG_2-a in Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅴ areas had a decreasing trend, while that in Ⅲ and Ⅳ areas initially increased and then decreased. In terms of spatial change, YG_1-2 and YG_2-3 of winter wheat declined from north to south, while YG_2-a increased from east to west in Henan Province. The order of yield increase potential of winter wheat for each area was Ⅲ > Ⅴ > Ⅳ > Ⅱ > Ⅰ. Agronomic conditions were the main factors driving the dwindling gaps in winter wheat yield in Henan Province. By improving agronomic conditions (e.g., varieties, modern agricultural technology, reasonable pesticide and fertilizer use, and rational arrangement of high-quality regions), it was possible to reduce the gaps in winter wheat yield in the study area.
Key words:Winter wheat/
AEZ model/
Photosynthetic potential productivity/
Light-temperature potential productivity/
Climate potential productivity/
Yield gap/
Production increasing potential/
Agronomic factors

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图1河南省冬小麦气候区划
Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。
Figure1.Climatic regionalization of winter wheat in Henan Province
Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area.


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图21981-2010年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦每10年平均产量
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平差异显著。
Figure2.Average yields of winter wheat per 10 years at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2010
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图31961-2013年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦光合生产潜力
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure3.Photosynthetic potential productivities (Y₁) of winter wheat at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2013
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图41961-2013年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦光温生产潜力
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure4.Light-temperature potential productivities (Y₂) of winter wheat at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2013
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图51961-2013年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦气候生产潜力
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure5.Climate potential productivities (Y₃) of winter wheat at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2013
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图61961-2010年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦每10年平均光合生产潜力与光温生产潜力差距(YG_1-2)
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure6.Average gaps between photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity light-temperature potential productivity (YG_1-2) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2010
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图71961-2010年河南省每10年光合生产潜力与光温生产潜力差距(YG_1-2)分布图
Figure7.Spatial distribution of average gap between photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity (YG_1-2) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2010


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图81961-2010年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦每10年平均光温生产潜力与气候生产潜力的差距(YG_2-3)
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure8.Average gaps between light-temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity (YG_2-3) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites of five climatic areas of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2010
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图91961-2010年河南省每10年光温生产潜力与气候生产潜力差距(YG_2-3)分布图
Figure9.Spatial distribution of average gap between light-temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity (YG_2-3) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites in Henan Province in 1961-2010


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图101961-2010年河南省5个小麦气候区的14个站点冬小麦每10年平均光温生产潜力与大田平均产量的差距(YG_2-a)
1:安阳; 2:新乡; 3:开封; 4:宝丰; 5:许昌; 6:西华; 7:商丘; 8:三门峡; 9:卢氏; 10:栾川; 11:南阳; 12:西峡; 13:驻马店; 14:信阳。Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。同一站点不同小写字母表示不同时间段间在0.05水平上差异显著。
Figure10.Average gaps between light-temperature potential productivity and actual yield (YG_2-a) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites of five climatic regions of wheat in Henan Province in 1961-2010
1: Anyang; 2: Xinxiang; 3: Kaifeng; 4: Baofeng; 5: Xuchang; 6: Xihua; 7: Shangqiu; 8: Sanmenxia; 9: Lushi; 10: Luanchuan; 11: Nanyang; 12: Xixia; 13: Zhumadian; 14: Xinyang. Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area. Different lowercase letters at the same experimental site mean significant differences among decades.


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图111961-2010年河南省每10年光温生产潜力与大田平均产量的差距(YG_2-a)分布图
Figure11.Spatial distribution of average gap between light-temperature potential productivity and actual yield (YG_2-a) of winter wheat every 10 years at 14 sites in Henan Province in 1961-2010


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表1不同叶面积指数下作物生长量校正值
Table1.Correction values (C_L) of crop growth under different leaf area indexes

叶面积指数 Leaf area index	1	2	3	4	≥5
校正值 Correction value	0.32	0.58	0.78	0.91	1.00

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表2冬小麦生育期内河南省不同区域作物生长量校正值
Table2.Correction values (C_L) of crop growth in different regions of Henan Province during growth period of winter wheat

区域 Region	月份Month
	10	11	11	1	2	3	4	6	6
Ⅰ	0.096	0.398	0.600	0.660	0.780	1.000	1.000	0.810	0.372
Ⅱ	0.096	0.398	0.590	0.640	0.760	1.000	1.000	0.850	0.372
Ⅲ	0.064	0.320	0.541	0.620	0.705	0.910	1.000	0.910	/
Ⅳ	0.048	0.257	0.489	0.610	0.700	0.955	1.000	0.897	/
Ⅴ	0.032	0.224	0.476	0.60	0.720	0.980	1.000	0.900	/
Ⅰ:豫北种植区; Ⅱ:豫东种植区; Ⅲ:浅山丘陵盆地种植区; Ⅳ:淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区; Ⅴ:豫南稻茬麦区。Ⅰ: northern Henan planting area; Ⅱ: eastern Henan planting area; Ⅲ: shallow mountain hilly basin planting area; Ⅳ: Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area; Ⅴ: southern Henan planting area.

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