宫丽娟1, 2,,,
张志国1, 2,
赵慧颖1, 2,
吴双1, 2,
田宝星1, 2,
赵放3
1.黑龙江省气象科学研究所 哈尔滨 150030
2.中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室 哈尔滨 150030
3.宁夏大学农学院 银川 750021
基金项目: 黑龙江省气象局科研项目HQ2016014
黑龙江省气象局科研项目HQZD2017006
中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201606
中国气象局核心业务发展专项CMAHX20160205
详细信息
作者简介:杜春英, 主要研究方向为应用气象。E-mail:duchunying880@sohu.com
通讯作者:宫丽娟, 主要研究方向为气候变化对农业生态影响及评价。E-mail:footprint05@126.com
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2017-07-24
录用日期:2017-10-08
刊出日期:2018-02-01
Characteristics and effects on crop production of heat resources changes in Heilongjiang Province
DU Chunying1, 2,,GONG Lijuan1, 2,,,
ZHANG Zhiguo1, 2,
ZHAO Huiying1, 2,
WU Shuang1, 2,
TIAN Baoxing1, 2,
ZHAO Fang3
1. Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China
2. Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Regional Eco-Meteorology in Northeast, China Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, China
3. School of Agriculture, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
Funds: the Scientific Research Project of Heilongjiang Meteorological BureauHQ2016014
the Scientific Research Project of Heilongjiang Meteorological BureauHQZD2017006
the Climate Change Special Fund of China Meteorological AdministrationCCSF201606
the Development of Core Business Fund of China Meteorological AdministrationCMAHX20160205
More Information
Corresponding author:GONG Lijuan, E-mail:footprint05@126.com
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摘要
摘要:气候变暖背景下，热量资源变化势必对寒地农作物生产环境、生长发育及种植制度产生重要影响。本文利用黑龙江省1971-2014年67个观测站逐日气象资料，计算了≥ 10℃活动积温和≥ 0℃活动积温（以下简称积温）及无霜期等农业热量指标，采用线性倾向率、累计距平、M-K检验和经验正交函数（EOF）方法等统计方法，分析了热量资源变化特征及突变特征，以及对农业生产的可能影响。结果表明：≥ 10℃积温和≥ 0℃积温分别以86.7℃·d·（10a）-1和80.5℃·d·（10a）-1的速率显著增加，无霜期呈延长趋势[倾向率为3.8 d·（10a）-1]；≥ 10℃积温和无霜期在1993年发生突变，突变后二者初日提前，终日延后。≥ 10℃积温和≥ 0℃积温的增加幅度西部大于东部，无霜期延长幅度中西部大于东北部，农业热量资源变化幅度大的地区亦是热量敏感区域。热量资源增加对农业的影响，表现在农作物适宜生育期延长；适宜水稻和玉米种植的区域向北、向西扩张，大豆种植重心北移；原适宜种植极早熟、早熟品种的区域逐步被中熟、中晚熟品种替换。热量增加使水稻、玉米和大豆三大作物产量的进一步提高成为可能。
关键词:气候变化/
积温/
无霜期/
热量资源/
作物种植带/
作物生育期/
作物产量/
黑龙江
Abstract:Under the global warming background, heat resources variation has significant impact on production environment, growth and development, cropping system and cultivation zone of corps in the clod region.To explore variations in cultivation zones, growing seasons and yields of major crops (rice, maize and soybean) under climate change of Heilongjiang Province, China, we analyzed the characteristics of tempo-spatial changes and abrupt changes by using accumulated anomaly method, Mann-Kendall trends test and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of heat resources indices, including accumulated temperature above 10℃ and 0℃ and frost-free periods in 67 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2014 in Heilongjiang Province.We also calculated regression coefficients between heat resources indices and development stages of crops to investigate the influence of heat resources change on crop development.The differences in crop cultivate zones and yields between before and after abrupt change year were also discussed according to accumulated temperature above 10℃ and actual and meteorological yields.The results showed that the accumulated temperatures above 10℃ and 0℃ increased significantly at rates of 86.7℃·d·((10a)-1 and 80.5℃·d·((10a)-1, respectively, from 1971 to 2014.The annual frost-free period increased at a rate of 3.8 d·(10a)-1.There were abrupt changes in the accumulated temperatures above 10℃ and the annual average frost-free period in 1993.The accumulated temperature above 10℃ increased 226.1℃·d averagely, and the frost-free period prolonged 9.2 d averagely after the abrupt change year.The abrupt change promoted the initial dates and postponed the ending dates of the temperatures above 10℃, 0℃ and the frost-free period.From 1971 to 2014, the increasing rates of accumulated temperatures above 10℃ and 0℃ were greater in the west than in the east.The annual frost-free period was longer in mid-west than in northeast.The area with greater change of heat resource was also sensitive area of agricultural heat resources change.With the increase of heat resources, the suitable growth period of crops prolonged.The planting areas of rice, maize northward and westward expended.The center of soybean cultivation area northward moved.The planting areas with original especial-early-maturing and early-maturing crops varieties became the areas suitable for middle-maturing and middle-late-maturing varieties of crops.In general, the increased heat resources provided more yield increasing potential of rice, maize and soybean in Heilongjiang Province.
Key words:Climate change/
Accumulated temperature/
Frost-free period/
Heat resources/
Crop cultivation zone/
Crop growth season/
Grain yield/
Heilongjiang Province
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图1黑龙江省1971—2014年农业热量资源的时间变化(左)及M-K检验(右)
左图中ME为气象要素变化曲线, AA为气象要素的累积距平, 方程为气象要素变化趋势。右图中, UF为正序列, UB为反序列, LA为临界值。
Figure1.Temporal changes (left) and Mann-Kendall curves (right) of heat resources in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014
In the left figures, ME curves show changes of meteorological elements, AA curves show accumulated anomaly of meteorological elements, equations denote the variation trends of meteorological elements. In the right figures, UF means normal sequence, UB means inverse sequence, and LA means critical value.
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图21971—2014年黑龙江省农业热量指标倾向率的空间分布[a和b为≥10 ℃积温和≥0 ℃积温的倾向率, ℃?d?(10a)-1; c为无霜期的倾向率, d?(10a)-1]
Figure2.Spatial distributions of tendency rates of heat resources indices in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014 [a and b are tendency rates of the accumulated temperatures above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃, respectively, unit is ℃?d?(10a)-1. c is tendency rate of frost-free period, unit is d?(10a)-1]
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图31971—2014年黑龙江省农业热量指标EOF展开的第1特征向量场(a: ≥10 ℃积温; b: ≥0 ℃积温; c:无霜期)
Figure3.Characteristic vectors of EOF of heat resources indices in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014 (a: the accumulated temperature above 10 ℃; b: the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃; c: frost-free period)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图41971—1993年(a)和1994—2014年(b)黑龙江省不同熟型水稻品种种植带分布
Figure4.Distribution of crop cultivation zones of different maturating-types of rice varieties in Heilongjiang Province during 1971—1993 (a) and 1994—2014 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图51971—1993年(a)和1994—2014年(b)黑龙江省不同熟型玉米品种种植带分布
Figure5.Distribution of crop cultivation zones of different maturating-types of maize varieties in Heilongjiang Province during 1971—1993 (a) and 1994—2014 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图61971—1993年(a)和1994—2014年(b)黑龙江省不同熟型大豆品种种植带分布
Figure6.Distribution of crop cultivation zones of different maturating-types of soybean varieties in Heilongjiang Province during 1971—1993 (a) and 1994—2014 (b)
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1黑龙江省三大作物不同熟型≥10 ℃积温指标
Table1.Accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ for different maturating-type varieties of the three major crops in Heilongjiang Province
| 作物 Crop | 品种熟型 Maturating-type | ≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ (℃?d) |
| 水稻 Rice | 极早熟 Especial-early-maturating | < 2 200 |
| 早熟Early-maturating | 2 200~2 400 | |
| 中熟Middle-maturating | 2 400~2 700 | |
| 中晚熟Middle-late-maturating | 2 700~2 800 | |
| 晚熟Late-maturating | ≥2 800 | |
| 玉米 Maize | 早熟Early-maturating | 2 100~2 400 |
| 中熟Middle-maturating | 2 400~2 700 | |
| 晚熟Late-maturating | ≥2 700 | |
| 大豆 Soybean | 早熟Early-maturating | 1 985~2 130 |
| 中熟Middle-maturating | 2 130~2 330 | |
| 晚熟Late-maturating | 2 330~2 455 | |
| 极晚熟Especial-late maturating | ≥2 455 |
下载: 导出CSV表2黑龙江省1971—2014年≥10 ℃、≥0 ℃和无霜期的初终日、持续日数的倾向率
Table2.Tendency rates of the first and last dates, and period of above 10 ℃, 0 ℃ and frost-free period in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014
| d?(10a)-1 | |||
| ≥10 ℃ | ≥0 ℃ | 无霜期Frost-free period | |
| 初日The first date | -2.1** | -1.3 | -3.0** |
| 终日The last date | 1.0 | 2.4** | 0.8 |
| 日数The period | 3.1** | 3.6** | 3.8** |
| *:通过α=0.05水平的显著性检验, **:通过α=0.01水平的显著性检验。* indicates significance at α = 0.05 level. ** indicates significance at α = 0.01 level. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表31971—2014年黑龙江省≥10 ℃积温、≥0 ℃积温和无霜期与作物生育期日数的回归系数
Table3.Regression coefficients between the accumulated temperatures above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃, and annual frost-free period and development stage of crops in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014
| 作物 Crop | ≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ | ≥0 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ | 无霜期 Annual frost-free period |
| 水稻Rice | 0.024* | 0.042** | 0.448* |
| 玉米Maize | 0.002 | 0.009 | 0.111 |
| 大豆Soybean | -0.007 | -0.003 | -0.006 |
| *:通过α=0.05水平的显著性检验, **:通过α=0.01水平的显著性检验。* indicates significance at α = 0.05 level. ** indicates significance at α = 0.01 level. | |||
下载: 导出CSV表41971—1993年黑龙江省农作物产量及≥0 ℃积温对增产的贡献
Table4.Grain yields of major crops and contribution of accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ to crops grain yields in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014
| 水稻 Rice | 玉米 Maize | 大豆 Soybean | |
| 气象产量 Meteorological yield (Yw) (kg·hm-2) | 62.0 | 31.2 | 14.2 |
| 实际产量Actual yield (Y) (kg·hm-2) | 1 167.4 | 1 032.6 | 1 870.4 |
| Yw·Y–1×100(%) | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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