Analysis of Yield Gaps and Limiting Factors in China’s Main Sugarcane Production Areas
ZHOU YiFan,, YANG LinSheng, MENG Bo, ZHAN Jian, DENG Yan,College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University/Interdisciplinary Research Center for Agricultural Green Development in Yangtze River Basin, Chongqing 400715
Received:2020-08-3Accepted:2021-01-6Online:2021-06-01 作者简介 About authors 周一帆,E-mail:evanzhou@email.swu.edu.cn。
摘要 【目的】对中国甘蔗主产区的产量潜力与产量差现状进行研究,进而分析讨论产量的主要影响因素及消减产量差的潜力,以期为中国甘蔗增产增效提供参考依据。【方法】基于统计数据和文献数据收集,从国家统计局获得1999—2018年各省(自治区、直辖市)及国家的甘蔗产量及种植面积数据147条;从数据库中国知网和Web of Science对1980—2019年发表的关于中国甘蔗主产区的下种量、施肥量、品种及对应产量的国内外期刊与硕、博士论文等进行检索,排除异常数据后,共获文献93篇,其中广西54篇,云南14篇,广东25篇。以不同产区试验产量数据前5%的平均值为产量潜力,以统计数据平均值为农户产量,以此计算各产区的产量差;进一步分析产量与施肥量、下种量及甘蔗品种的关系,得出各产区的推荐施肥量、下种量及高产品种,并讨论了优化施肥量、下种量和品种消减产量差的潜力。【结果】广西、云南、广东是中国三大甘蔗主产区,产量潜力分别为137.1、147.2、145.8 t·hm-2,农户平均产量分别为74.2、62.0、78.3 t·hm-2,分别实现产量潜力的 54.1%、42.1%和53.7%。施肥量、下种量和品种是影响甘蔗产量的主要因素,并仍有较大的优化空间。为提高甘蔗产量,广西产区推荐施肥量270 kg N·hm-2、99 kg P2O5·hm-2、208 kg K2O·hm-2,云南产区推荐施肥量228 kg N·hm-2、117 kg P2O5·hm-2、281 kg K2O·hm-2,广东产区推荐施肥量240 kg N·hm-2、71 kg P2O5·hm-2、193 kg K2O·hm-2;广西、云南、广东推荐下种量分别为8×104—10×104、10×104—12×104、8×104—10×104芽/hm2;三大产区高产品种分别是桂辐系列、桂糖系列和粤糖系列。【结论】广西、云南、广东三大产区甘蔗的增产潜力分别为62.9、85.2、67.5 t·hm-2;优化施肥可使广西、云南、广东分别增产16.9、28.4、25.3 t·hm-2,优化下种量可分别增产23.6、27.9、22.1 t·hm-2,优化品种可分别增产26.8、42.4、15.1 t·hm-2。 关键词:甘蔗;主产区;产量差;施肥;下种量;品种;产量潜力
Abstract 【Objective】Although China is the third biggest country in sugarcane planting areas and total production in the world, the sugarcane yield per hectare in China is much lower than the other high-yield sugarcane producing countries. This paper studied sugarcane yield potentials and current yield gaps in different sugarcane producing areas in China, and then the potential to reduce yield gap by optimizing yield-limiting factors was discussed, and thus to provide reference for increasing yield and efficiency in sugarcane production. 【Method】This study was based on data collection including statistical data and experiment data from literatures. A total of 147 data sets of sugarcane yield and planting areas from 1999 to 2018 in different provinces (autonomous regions, cities) were obtained from the national statistics database. Based on the database of CNKI and Web of Science, experiment data about planting density, fertilization rate, variety and yield from 93 papers were collected for main sugarcane producing areas, including 54 papers in Guangxi, 14 papers in Yunnan, and 25 papers in Guangdong. In each producing area, the mean of upper 5% experimental yields was used as yield potential, and the mean of statistical data as farmer’s yield, and yield gap was calculated as the difference between yield potential and farmer’s yield. Then the relationships between yield and fertilization rate, planting density and variety were analyzed, and therefore recommendations of optimized fertilization rate, planting density, variety and the potential to reduce yield gap were obtained. 【Result】Guangxi, Yunnan and Guangdong were the three main sugarcane producing areas in China. The sugarcane yield potentials were 137.1 t·hm-2in Guangxi, 147.2 t·hm-2in Yunnan, and 145.8 t·hm-2in Guangdong, respectively; while farmer’s yield were 74.2, 62.0, 78.3 t·hm-2, respectively, only achieving 54.1%, 42.1%, and 53.7% yield potential for each area, respectively. Fertilization rate, planting density and variety had significant effects on sugarcane yield, and there was big potential to optimize these yield-limiting factors. The fertilization recommendations were 270 kg N·hm-2, 99 kg P2O5·hm-2, 208 kg K2O·hm-2 in Guangxi, 228 kg N·hm-2, 117 kg P2O5·hm-2, 281 kg K2O·hm-2 in Yunnan, and 240 kg N·hm-2, 71 kg P2O5·hm-2, 193 kg K2O·hm-2 in Guangdong. The recommended planting density in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong was 8×104-10×104, 10×104-12×104, 8×104-10×104 buds/hm2, respectively, and the varieties with high yields were GF series, GT series and YT series, respectively. 【Conclusion】According to the results, the potentials of yield increase in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong were 62.9, 85.2, and 67.5 t·hm-2, respectively. Fertilization optimization could increase yield 16.9, 28.4, and 25.3 t·hm-2 for each area. Optimizing planting density could increase yield 23.6, 27.9, 22.1 t·hm-2, and optimizing sugarcane variety could increase yield 26.8, 42.4, and 15.1 t·hm-2, respectively. Keywords:sugarcane;main sugarcane production areas;yield gaps;fertilization;planting density;variety;potential yield
PDF (3584KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章导出EndNote|Ris|Bibtex收藏本文 本文引用格式 周一帆, 杨林生, 孟博, 战健, 邓燕. 中国甘蔗主产区产量差及影响因素分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(11): 2377-2388 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.11.011 ZHOU YiFan, YANG LinSheng, MENG Bo, ZHAN Jian, DENG Yan. Analysis of Yield Gaps and Limiting Factors in China’s Main Sugarcane Production Areas[J]. Scientia Acricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(11): 2377-2388 doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.11.011
农户产量为统计数据,广西、云南、广东3个产区的产量潜力均为文献数据前5%的平均值 Fig. 3Yield potentials and farmer’s yields of main sugarcane production areas in China
Farmers’ yield is calculated from statistical data, while the potential yields of Guangxi, Yunnan and Guangdong are the average of the top 5% of the literature yield data
氮磷钾是甘蔗生长重要的必需营养元素,也是施肥投入的主要养分。当前生产中过量施肥或某种肥料投入相对不足的现象普遍存在,亟需科学的施肥管理指导农户生产。基于田间试验进行施肥量与产量的相关性拟合分析是确定施肥推荐量的一种常用方法[23]。本研究中,我们利用“线性+平台”的拟合分析,得出三大主产区的推荐施肥量分别为:广西270 kg N·hm-2、99 kg P2O5·hm-2、208 kg K2O·hm-2,云南228 kg N·hm-2、 117 kg P2O5·hm-2、281 kg K2O·hm-2,广东240 kg N·hm-2、71 kg P2O5·hm-2、193 kg K2O·hm-2。王继华等报道当前我国甘蔗生产的平均施氮量为360 kg·hm-2,氮肥利用率仅有10%,而甘蔗生产先进的澳大利亚甘蔗施氮量近年来稳定在170 kg·hm-2,氮肥利用率保持在50%—60%[3]。本研究得出的推荐施氮量比当前平均施用量减少90—132 kg·hm-2,减肥效果明显,但与澳大利亚的施氮量相比还有较大的减肥空间。需要注意的是,本研究的推荐施肥量是以省/自治区为研究尺度进行数据统计分析所得,与具体试验点开展试验所得的推荐施肥量结论有一定差异。例如,李瑞民等[24]通过“3414”试验得出广东雷州市甘蔗的氮磷钾最佳施肥量分别为354 kg N·hm-2、207 kg P2O5·hm-2、191 kg K2O·hm-2,与本研究结果相比氮肥用量偏高,这反映了具体试验地块的肥力水平、品种和栽培管理措施的影响。
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