李晓英, 蔡晨凯, 叶根苗, 苏志伟
AuthorsHTML:李晓英, 蔡晨凯, 叶根苗, 苏志伟
AuthorsListE:Li Xiaoying, Cai Chenkai, Ye Genmiao, Su Zhiwei
AuthorsHTMLE:Li Xiaoying, Cai Chenkai, Ye Genmiao, Su Zhiwei
Unit:河海大学水利水电学院，南京 210098
Unit_EngLish:College of Water Conservation and Hydropower, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Abstract_Chinese:利用GRACE重力卫星数据反演2002—2015年间长江下游陆地水储量变化, 与GLDAS模型模拟陆地水储量从趋势性和相关性两方面进行对比分析, 并利用长系列GLDAS模拟水储量和两者间函数关系, 建立改进灰色-马尔可夫模型预测长江下游地区未来陆地水储量变化．结果表明：GRACE重力卫星数据反演的陆地水储量变化和GLDAS模型模拟的陆地水储量变化趋势一致, 均有微弱增长趋势, 最小二乘拟合相关系数为0.79, 两者间具有强相关性; 利用改进灰色-马尔可夫模型预测长江流域下游地区2016年和2017年陆地水储量变化区间分别为(7.37 cm, 12.05 cm]和(7.29 cm, 11.25 cm], 2016年预测结果与实际情况一致, 结果表明区域将会出现连续丰水状态, 极有可能导致洪涝灾害发生, 未来防洪治涝形势严峻．
Abstract_English:The terrestrial water storage anomalies(TWSA)of lower Yangtze River basin during 2002—2015 were re-constructed by using GRACE data and analyzed with the TWS simulated by global land data assimilation system(GLDAS)from the aspects of trend and correlation. According to the result，the future TWSA data were predicted by the improved grey-Makov model with the long series GLDAS data. The results show that both TWSA and TWS in lower Yangtze River basin exhibit an upward but not significant trend. The same trend and high correlation coefficient(up to 0.79)indicate a functional relationship between the two elements. Based on the improved grey-Markov model，the ranges of TWSA in 2016 and 2017 are(7.37 cm，12.05 cm] and(7.29 cm，11.25 cm]，respectively，which mean that the lower Yangtze River basin will stay in wet situation in the two years. Flood will highly likely take place in this area and more attention should be paid to the safety control.
Keyword_Chinese:GRACE; GLDAS; 陆地水储量变化; 改进灰色-马尔可夫模型; 长江下游
Keywords_English:GRACE; GLDAS; terrestrial water storage anomaly; improved grey-Markov model; lower Yangtze River basin

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