摘要:构建指标体系是开展不同尺度农业绿色发展定量分析的基础，可为农业绿色发展的度量评价、系统设计和实现路径探索等科学研究提供方法支撑。本文立足农业和整个食物“生产-加工-消费”系统，以农业绿色发展的科学内涵和实现目标为导向，围绕社会、经济和生态环境3个维度，以“食物生产-加工-消费”全链条为边界，构建了1套适合开展定量研究和评价中国农业绿色发展的指标体系。在收集统计数据和文献资料、计算社会和经济类指标的基础上，引入食物链养分流动模型（NUtrient flows in Food chains，Environmente and Resources use，NUFER），实现了对生产、资源与环境类指标的定量计算；此外，本研究还确立了指标选取原则、计算过程和分级标准等。基于该指标体系，采用“自上而下”的研究思路，从全国尺度，通过定量分析氮素，描述了中国农业绿色发展的总体特征，揭示了存在的问题，并探讨了未来的优化策略；从省域尺度，解析了海南省热带岛屿农业绿色发展的特色问题；从县域尺度，分析了河北省各县域农业发展的现状及资源环境代价，为农业绿色发展提供科学支撑和依据；通过对标分析剖析了中国奶业产业发展的差距，探讨了产业挖潜的路径。上述实证研究表明，利用本研究建立的农业绿色发展指标体系与分析模型，能够定量解析不同尺度的农业绿色发展水平和特征，进行农业绿色发展的资源环境代价定量分析；通过对标分析明确产业发展的差距，阐明产业绿色发展的瓶颈问题和限制因素，进而挖掘产业绿色发展的潜力。此外，该指标体系还可用于系统设计农业绿色发展实现路径的研究，为区域农业绿色发展关键技术的开发以及相关政策的制定提供科学支撑。
关键词:农业绿色发展/
指标体系/
定量分析/
系统设计/
实现路径
Abstract:Quantitative indicators are crucial for analyzing agricultural green development (AGD). Accordingly, the present study aimed to develop a system of indicators to serve for goals of AGD in China based on agriculture and the whole food production-processing-consumption chain. The indicator system included five aspects (society, economy, productivity, resources, and environment) and a total of 53 indicators (27 direct, 14 indirect, and 12 optional). The indicators enabled quantitative analyses of AGD at different scales. Social and economic indicators were calculated using collect statistical data and literature; and then, production, resource, and environmental indicators were calculated using the NUFER (nutrient flows in food chains, environmental, and resources use) model. Criteria for indicator selection, calculation process, and grading standards were also established. Based on the index system, a "top-down" research approach was adopted, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of AGD indicators were quantitatively analyzed at different scales. At the national scale, nitrogen flow in China was quantitatively analyzed, and the overall characteristics, problems, and future optimization strategies for AGD in China were described. From 1980 to 2017, the N use intensity, N production ability, crop protein yield and animal protein yield increased; while the N use efficiency of crop production first decreased and then increased, livestock manure use efficiency decreased and environmental emission cost of resources increased sharply in China. The main reasons for these changes were irrational use of N in crop-livestock production systems, changes in crop and livestock structure, separation of crop production and livestock husbandry, and uneven development of economy and society. At the provincial scale, the characteristics of AGD in the tropical islands of Hainan Province were analyzed. The intensive use of pesticides and N fertilizer was the main limitation of AGD in Hainan. The main impact factors were the high proportion of tropical fruits and vegetables and high density of livestock and poultry breeding At the county scale, both the current status of agricultural development and the resource and environmental costs of Hebei Province were analyzed. High inputs of agricultural chemicals were the main limiting factor for AGD in Hebei. Besides, the disconnection between crop and livestock production was the main limiting factor of AGD. Through benching marking, the spatiotemporal characteristics of green development indicators in the whole dairy industry chain in China was discussed to distinguish the development gap, bottleneck problems and limiting factors. This empirical research indicated that the AGD index system and the NUFER model were useful for quantitatively analyzing the characteristics and costs of AGD at different scales in China.
Key words:Agricultural green development/
Indicator system/
Quantitative analysis/
System design/
Realization pathway
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