摘要:农业面源污染已经成为影响社会经济可持续发展的突出问题，而农业结构被认为在其中发挥了重要的调节作用。本研究在根据曲劳（Truog）的养分平衡法理论测算了农业面源污染的主要来源——过剩氮总量的基础上，运用基于VECM模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，考察了福建省1998—2017年农业经济增长、农业面源污染、农业结构之间的关系。研究结果表明：1）农业经济增长、农业面源污染、农业结构之间存在长期均衡关系。2）格兰杰检验结果表明：农业面源污染与农业经济增长互为格兰杰原因；农业结构分别是面源污染和农业经济增长的格兰杰原因，农业经济增长是农业结构的格兰杰原因。3）方差分解结果显示：农业经济增长与农业结构对农业面源污染的冲击影响很小，对农业面源污染的预测方差贡献分别仅有4.31%和4.02%。但农业面源污染对农业经济增长的冲击影响较大，向前推进10年，其预测方差中来自农业面源污染的方差贡献达47.02%。为此，福建省应在继续保持对农业面源污染严格治理力度的基础上，重视绿色化农业技术和模式的开发应用，加强农业基础设施建设，制订更加明确精准的绿色农业导向性政策，加强绿色消费观念的引导和培养。
关键词:面源污染/
经济增长/
农业结构/
VECM模型/
脉冲响应分析
Abstract:Agricultural structure is considered to play an important role in regulating the dual pressures of economic growth and non-point source pollution from agricultural development. The total amount of surplus nitrogen, which is the main source of agricultural non-point source pollution, was calculated according to Truog's nutrient balance theory. The impulse response function and variance decomposition methods, based on the vector error correction model (VECM), were used to investigate and explain the relationship among agricultural economic growth, agricultural non-point source pollution, and agricultural structure in Fujian Province from 1998 to 2017. The research results showed that: 1) there was a relationship of long-term equilibrium among agricultural economic growth, agricultural non-point source pollution, and agricultural structure. 2) The Granger causality test showed that: agricultural non-point source pollution and economic growth were Granger causes for each other; agricultural structure was the Granger cause of non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth; and agricultural economic growth was the Granger cause of agricultural structure. 3) The results of variance decomposition showed that there was little impact of agricultural economic growth and agricultural structure on agricultural non-point source pollution. The variance contribution of the impact of agricultural economic growth and agricultural structure on agricultural economic growth was 4.31% and 4.02%, respectively. The agricultural non-point source pollution had a great effect on agricultural economic growth. In the next 10 years, the variance contribution from agricultural non-point source pollution would reach 47.02%. 4) In the light of these findings, potential policy suggestions include: continuing to rectify agricultural non-point source pollution; encouraging the development and application of green agricultural technology and methods; increasing the role of the construction of agricultural infrastructure and farmer organization, introducing more detailed and guided financial policies to support agriculture; and strengthening the awareness on green consumption.
Key words:Non-point source pollution/
Economic growth/
Agricultural structure/
VECM model/
Impulse response analysis
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