摘要:农业绿色发展研究是融合多学科知识，以食物系统为研究对象，重点剖析系统内不同单元间关联和互馈关系，进而阐明粮食安全、国民健康、资源节约、环境保护等目标的协调机制，探索全产业链技术途径，并致力于协同实现农业“绿色”和“发展”的科学。传统研究方法往往忽视对农业绿色发展的系统思考和定量分析，无法统筹农业绿色发展的各环节和协调多类目标的实现。在本研究中，我们首先基于系统研究的思路，明确了“土壤-作物生产-畜牧业生产-食品加工-家庭消费—环境”整个食物系统是农业绿色发展系统研究边界；其次，结合农业绿色发展全链条和多尺度特性，提出并论述了“自上而下”和“自下而上”的定量研究思路；随后，以上述两方面研究思考为基础，构建了由1个核心模型[食物系统养分流动模型（NUFER）]、3个定量分析模块（水、大气和土地利用分析模块）和1个指标关联模块[耦合驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应概念框架（DPSIR）、可持续发展指标体系（SDGs）和星球边界理论框架（PBs）]组成的农业绿色发展系统分析耦合模型（NUFER-AGD）；最后，梳理了农业绿色发展定量研究的案例。案例研究通过多指标关联分析和指标评价，协同国家农业绿色发展的总体目标；在流域尺度以绿色环境与资源阈值为约束，定量设计农业绿色发展系统解决方案；系统分析全产业链农业绿色发展的技术实现路径。该研究不仅能为农业绿色发展理论和应用研究提供系统思路和定量方法，还可为国家农业绿色发展战略提供科学支撑。
关键词:农业绿色发展/
食物系统/
系统研究/
NUFER模型/
多指标关联分析
Abstract:Research on agricultural green development (AGD) is a scientific direction of integrating multi-disciplinary knowledge. It takes the food system as the research boundary, and focuses on analyzing the relationship between different sectors in the food system to achieve the targets of food security, human health, resource conservation and environmental protection. It also devotes attention to the coordination of "green" and "development" in agriculture production system. Previous methods often neglect systematically thinking and quantitatively analyzing of the AGD, and cannot coordinate multiple objectives of AGD. In this study, we firstly defined the research boundary of AGD, which considered "soil-crop production-animal production-food processing-household consumption-environmental impacts" systems; secondly, we developed the quantitative research approaches of "top-down" and "bottom-up", combining the whole food chain and multi-scale characters in AGD studies; thirdly, we developed the new modelling system for AGD (NUFER-AGD), including a core model (the food system nutrient flow model, NUFER), three quantitative analysis modules (water, atmosphere and land use modules) and one index module (linked to Driving force-Pressure-States-Impacts-Response, DPSIR; Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs; and Planet Boundaries, PBs); and last, we reviewed several case studies of quantitative research on AGD. Here, case studies were conducted by following 3 steps: (1) coordinating the overall goals AGDs at national level by nexus analysis approach and multiple indicators evaluation; (2) designing AGDs solutions quantitively by using green environment and resource limits as thresholds at the watershed scale; (3) analyzing the technical pathways of AGD systemically in the whole industrial chain. This research can not only provide systematic thinking and quantitative methods for the research of AGD, but also provide scientific support for the national strategy of AGD in China.
Key words:Agricultural green development/
Food system/
Systematic research/
NUFER model/
Nexus analysis of multiple indicators
PDF全文下载地址:
http://www.ecoagri.ac.cn/article/exportPdf?id=8d775759-7041-47d9-a7b1-e4288b7efced
