摘要:城镇化对农业生态效率会产生重要影响。为更全面和准确分析城镇化对农业生态效率的影响，本文基于中国13个粮食主产区2009-2018年面板数据，利用3阶段非期望产出SBM-DEA模型、熵值法、Tobit回归等多种模型和方法，在理论分析基础上从多个角度就城镇化对农业生态效率的影响进行研究。结果表明：1）外生环境影响和随机干扰对农业生态效率测度会产生显著影响，并进一步作用于城镇化对农业生态效率的影响。2）中国13个粮食主产区2009-2018年间农业生态效率呈现持续增长趋势，剔除外生环境影响和随机干扰后，年度效率均值由2009年的0.53提升至2018年的0.80；但不同地区间存在较大差距，2018年河北等地区农业生态效率达到前沿面，但是内蒙古农业生态效率只有0.45。3）城镇化发展整体上能够促进农业生态效率的提高，城镇化综合指数在1%的水平上显著正向影响农业生态效率，影响系数为0.60。4）城镇化各指标对农业生态效率的影响存在差异，从各指标情况来看，人口城镇化率负向影响农业生态效率，但不显著；城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇经济密度正向影响农业生态效率；二三产业产值占GDP比重、建成区面积比重、人均建成区面积等指标负向影响农业生态效率。为进一步发挥城镇化对农业生态效率的促进作用，本文根据研究结果从人口、经济、土地城镇化3个方面提出了政策建议。
关键词:城镇化/
农业生态效率/
粮食主产区/
DEA/
Tobit
Abstract:Urbanization is an important factor to impact agricultural ecological efficiency. However, most of the existing studies have discussed the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency from a single perspective. Further, these studies are often affected by the impact of exogenous environment or other random factors during the measurement of agricultural ecological efficiency. To analyze the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency more comprehensively and accurately, the present study used the three-stage SBM-DEA model, which provides simultaneously evaluation of both the undesirable and desirable outputs, entropy value method, and Tobit model, based on panel data obtained from 13 major grain-producing regions in China from 2009 to 2018. Various models and methods were used to study the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency from multiple perspectives based on theoretical analysis. Our results showed that: 1) the impact of exogenous environment and random interference significantly impacted the agricultural ecological efficiency. After excluding these impacts, the agricultural ecological efficiency of the 13 major grain-producing regions in China changed significantly. Additionally, unlike the existing studies, the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency too changed, after the effects of exogenous environment and random interference were removed. 2) The agricultural ecological efficiency of China's 13 major grain-producing regions showed a continuous growth trend from 2009 to 2018. The average annual efficiency, after excluding the impact of exogenous environment and random interference, increased from 0.53 in 2009 to 0.80 in 2018. However, there was a big gap in the agricultural ecological efficiency among different regions. For example, in 2018, the agricultural ecological efficiency of Hebei and other regions reached the frontier (1.00), but that of Inner Mongolia was only 0.45. 3) Urbanization as a whole improved the agricultural ecological efficiency. The comprehensive index of urbanization significantly affected agricultural ecological efficiency (at a level of 1%, impact coefficient: 0.60). 4) Various indicators of urbanization differently impacted the agricultural ecological efficiency. The population urbanization rate showed an insignificant negative impact on the agricultural ecological efficiency. The per capita disposable income of urban residents and urban economic density significantly positively affected the agricultural ecological efficiency. The output value of the secondary and tertiary industries, proportion of built-up area and per capita built-up area had significantly negative effect on the agricultural ecological efficiency. To further elucidate the role of urbanization in promoting agricultural eco-efficiency, this article proposed suggestions to modify the relevant policies, based on the research results from three aspects of population, economy, and land urbanization.
Key words:Urbanization/
Agro-ecological efficiency/
Main grain production areas/
DEA/
Tobit
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