摘要:奶业是关乎国民健康和食品安全的战略性农业产业，本文从社会发展、经济效益、产品生产、资源投入和生态环境5个方面选取28项指标，发展和完善了中国奶业全产业链绿色发展指标体系和分级标准。基于该指标体系，利用NUFER-animal模型，定量分析了1990—2017年中国奶业绿色发展指标的时空分布特征，剖析了产业绿色发展的限制因素，阐明了优化途径。结果表明：中国人均奶制品消费量稳步提高，从2.0 kg·cap.-1·a-1增加到12.5 kg·cap.-1·a-1；奶牛单产水平不断提高，从2.4 t·head-1·a-1增加到7.0 t·head-1·a-1，种养系统氮素利用效率由8.4%提升至14.4%；单位牛奶的资源投入和环境代价均呈下降趋势，生产单位牛奶的蓝水足迹由0.5 m3·kg-1降低到0.2 m3·kg-1，耕地资源投入量由18.5 m2·kg-1降低到3.3 m2·kg-1；养殖系统氨挥发量指标由21.9 g（N）·kg-1降低到7.0 g（N）·kg-1，但仍远远高于欧美国家水平；牛奶生产和加工成本逐年增加，利润却低于欧美等先进国家的水平。空间特征分析表明：农牧交错带和东部沿海地区产品生产、资源投入和生态环境绿色发展水平相对较高，北方地区牛奶及奶制品的生产、消费水平均高于南方地区。发展种养一体化产业链融合绿色发展技术与模式、构建产销一体化产业链融合绿色发展利益共享机制和形成全产业链质量追踪服务体系与国民消费信任机制是促进中国奶业振兴和绿色发展的有效途径。
关键词:奶业振兴/
奶业产业链/
农业绿色发展/
指标体系/
NUFER-animal
Abstract:Dairy industry is a key agricultural industry related to public health and food safety. According to the agricultural green development index system in China, 28 indicators were selected from five aspects (i.e. social development, economic benefits, agricultural productivity, resource utilization and ecological environment) in this study to establish the green development indicators and benchmarks of the whole dairy industry chain in China. Based on the index system, this study quantitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variations of green development indicators of the whole dairy industry chain in China during 1990-2017 using NUFER-animal model. The results showed that 1) milchigs consumption per capita in China increased from 2.0 to 12.5 kg·cap.-1·a-1 during 1990-2017, 2) milk yield per cow increased from 2.4 to 7.0 t·head-1·a-1, 3) nitrogen use efficiency of crop-livestock farming system increased from 8.4% to 14.4%, 4) blue water footprint of milk decreased from 0.5 to 0.2 m3·kg-1, 5) land use per unit milk product decreased from 18.5 to 3.3 m2·kg-1, and 6) NH3 volatilization from farming system reduced from 21.9 g(N)·kg-1 to 7.0 g(N)·kg-1. Resource utilization and environmental costs per unit of milk showed a downward trend, while they were higher than that of Europe and America. Moreover, production and processing costs of milk increased in China with lower profits than that of developed countries (e.g. Europe and America). The green development level of production, resource utilization and ecological environment were relatively high in the eastern China and the transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area. Production and consumption of milk in the northern China were higher. It is an effective way to promote the revitalization and green development of China's dairy industry by 1) implementing the green technologies and integrating production systems of crop and animal production; 2) building the benefit sharing mechanism of production, processing and marketing industrial chain; and 3) reestablishing the milk quality tracking system of the whole industry chain and the trust mechanism of publics.
Key words:Dairy industry revitalization/
Dairy industry chain/
Agricultural green development/
Index system/
NUFER-animal
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