摘要
摘要:海南自建省以来农业生产规模、结构及生产方式均发生了很大改变，影响了其农业绿色发展程度。本文借助中国农业绿色发展指标体系，利用NUFER模型（NUtrient flows in Food chains，Environment and Resources use），选取并定量计算1988—2017年海南岛20项农业绿色发展指标，研究其时空变化特征，探究制约海南岛农业绿色发展的影响因素。研究表明：30年间海南省农业绿色发展水平总体呈下降趋势，较低级别（Ⅲ、Ⅳ级）指标数量由12个增加至15个，较高级别（Ⅰ、Ⅱ级）指标数量由8个减少至5个。随着蔬菜、水果等经济作物种植比例增加，畜禽养殖规模扩大与集约化程度提高，海南农业产值与社会发展水平不断升高，农业产值和农业机械化投入分别从0.62×10⁴ ￥·hm^-2和3 kW·hm^-2增加至16.1×10⁴￥·hm^-2和13 kW·hm^-2。30年来农业资源（氮素、磷素、农药和农膜）过量投入，其中农药和农膜的使用强度增幅最大，分别从8.0 kg·hm^-2和0 kg·hm^-2增加至41.9 kg·hm^-2和34.7 kg·hm^-2；由于生产力水平较低，导致养分（农田氮素盈余量、农田氮素径流量、农业源氨挥发等）环境排放量大幅增加，农业源氨挥发和单位播种面积农田氮素盈余增幅最大，分别从61.0 kg·hm^-2和152.1 kg·hm^-2增加至131.4 kg·hm^-2和297.9 kg·hm^-2。农业资源投入过量、农牧分离导致的环境污染是制约海南岛农业绿色发展的主要原因。在空间上，由于中部为山地林区，是国家重点生态功能保护区，开发力度较小，因此沿海平原的资源投入增长更快、养分环境损失量更多，经济增长、社会发展和农业生产3类指标提升更为迅速。今后海南岛应合理优化沿海地区种植结构，提高生产管理水平，加强农牧结合减少资源损失，实现海南岛农业绿色发展。
Abstract:Since the establishment of Hainan Province, the scale, structure, and methods of agricultural production have undergone significant changes, which are critical with respect to the progress of agricultural green development (AGD). In this study we adopted China's AGD indicator system with 20 indicators, and using the NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model, we quantitatively calculated the spatial and temporal changes in Hainan Island AGD indicators from 1988 to 2017. Moreover, we discussed the factors restricting AGD in Hainan Island. The results revealed that the overall level of Hainan Island's AGD had shown a declining trend over the past 30 years. The numbers of indicators at lower levels (Ⅲ and Ⅳ) had increased from 12 to 15, whereas those at higher levels (Ⅰ and Ⅱ) had decreased from 8 to 5. With increase in the proportion of economic crops such as vegetables and fruits, the scale of livestock and poultry farming and the degree of intensification, Hainan's agricultural output value and social development level had continued to increase. Furthermore, the agricultural output value per unit cultivated land area and level of agricultural mechanization had increased from 6 200 ￥·hm^-2 and 3 kW·hm^-2 to 161 000 ￥·hm^-2 and 13 kW·hm^-2, respectively. Over the past 30 years, there had been an increasingly excessive input of agricultural resources (nitrogen, phosphorus, pesticides, and agricultural film), among which, the intensities of pesticide and agricultural film usage had shown the highest increases, rising from 8.0 kg·hm^-2 and 0 kg·hm^-2 to 41.9 kg·hm^-2 and 34.7 kg·hm^-2, respectively. As a consequence of the low productivity levels, the environmental emissions of applied nutrients (e.g., nitrogen surplus in farmland, nitrogen runoff in farmland, and NH₃ volatilization from agricultural system) had increased significantly, with NH₃ volatilization and nitrogen surplus per unit sown area showing the largest increases, rising from 61.0 kg·hm^-2 and 152.1 kg·hm^-2 to 131.4 kg·hm^-2 and 297.9 kg·hm^-2, respectively. Environmental pollution caused by an excessive input of agricultural resources and the separation of agriculture and animal husbandry had been the main factors contributing to the restriction of AGD in Hainan Island. Given that the central part of the island is covered in montane forest and has been designated as a national key ecological function protection area, the scale of development in this region had been relatively limited. Consequently, the coastal plains had experience more rapid growth in resource input. Although this had a detrimental impact on the environment, the economy growth, social development, and agricultural productivity indicators for these areas had improved to a greater extent than those for mountain forest area. In the future, Hainan Island should rationally optimize the planting structure in coastal areas, improve the level of production management, and strengthen the combination of agriculture and animal husbandry to reduce resource losses and achieve the island's requisite AGD goals.



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