摘要:本文利用1981—2012年四川省82县的水稻单产资料，采用HP滤波法，进行水稻气象产量分离，分歉收年和成灾年两个年型，研究四川省水稻单产平均减产率、减产率变异系数和不同等级减产率风险概率的空间分布特征，并基于成灾年风险区划指标，开展四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划。结果表明：HP滤波法可用于四川省水稻气象产量分离，四川省水稻气象产量具有显著的准4 a、7 a周期振荡特征。平均减产率从西南向东北方向呈现“高-低-高”分布特征，80%以上县歉收年平均减产率介于2%~7%，成灾年平均减产率介于6%~15%。各县歉收年减产率变异系数介于0.6~2.2，成灾年减产率变异系数介于0~1.2；减产率变异系数相对高值区位于西南山地西部、盆地南部和盆地北部山地。各级减产率风险概率大值区主要集中于广元和巴中地区，还包括盐亭、古蔺、盐源、越西等县。四川省水稻综合气象灾害高风险区主要分布于盆地北部、盆地南部和西南山地西部等山区，中等风险区主要分布于盆地丘陵区及盆周低山区，低风险区主要分布于盆地平原、浅丘区和凉山州中东部。风险区划结果与四川省气象灾害分布和水稻农业气象灾害分布的研究成果相吻合，可为四川省水稻防灾减灾提供科学依据和重要参考。
关键词:综合气象灾害/
风险区划/
四川/
水稻/
产量分离/
减产率
Abstract:The trend and meteorological yields were decomposed using the High-Pass (HP) filtering method based on the data of rice yield per unit area from 1981 to 2012 in 82 counties of Sichuan Province, China. The spatial distribution characteristics of average yield loss rate, variation coefficient of yield loss rate, and risk probability of different yield loss rate in different grades were analyzed in the lean years and disaster years with the relative meteorological yield, which was calculated with the trend and meteorological yields. Integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning was carried out on the basis of the risk zoning indexes of the disaster years. The HP filter method could be applied to the separation of the meteorological yield in Sichuan Province. The meteorological yield of rice in Sichuan Province had significant quasi-4 a and 7 a periodic oscillation characteristics. The average yield loss rate showed a high-low-high distribution from southwest to northeast in the study area. More than 80% of counties displayed an average yield loss rate of 2%-7% in the lean years and 6%-15% in the disaster years. For all counties, the variation coefficient of yield loss rate was 0.6-2.2 in the lean years and 0-1.2 in the disaster years. The areas with relatively high variation coefficient of yield loss rate were located in the west of southwestern mountainous region, the southern parts of the basin and the mountainous region in the northern part of the basin. The large-value probability areas of different yield loss rates were mainly concentrated in Guangyuan City and Bazhong City, as well as in Yanting, Gulin, Yanyuan, Yuexi. The high-risk areas of rice integrated meteorological disaster were mainly distributed in the mountainous regions of the southern, northern and southwestern parts of the basin. The medium-risk areas were mainly located in the hilly region of the basin and the surrounding low mountainous region. The low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the plain and shallow hilly regions of the basin and the east-central Liangshan Prefecture. The results of risk zoning were consistent with the distribution data of the meteorological disasters and the rice agro-meteorological disasters in Sichuan Province. The data provide a scientific basis and important reference for rice disaster prevention and mitigation in Sichuan Province.
Key words:Integrated meteorological disaster/
Risk regionalization/
Sichuan/
Rice/
Yield separation/
Yield loss rate
PDF全文下载地址:
http://www.ecoagri.ac.cn/article/exportPdf?id=7f45b98e-e1df-4c48-8bd4-d56ccee6961c
