摘要:从气候的资源和灾害双重属性出发，构建了冬小麦气候生产潜力和胁迫风险评价指标，以安徽省为例分析了二者对气候变化的响应特征，综合气候对高产和稳产的影响进行研究区冬小麦种植气候适宜性区划。结果表明：采用逐级订正法结合作物生长动态参数估算安徽省冬小麦气候生产潜力多年平均为12 391 kg·hm-2，以沿淮和江淮之间最高；1961-2015年淮北和沿淮东部地区为显著上升趋势，而淮河以南地区则以下降为主。通过考虑在冬小麦生长发育过程中气候条件偏离最适区间而导致的胁迫影响，建立了高温、低温、雨涝、干旱4种气候胁迫的评估指标，并基于气候胁迫的超越概率形成了冬小麦气候风险评价方法。气候变暖使研究区冬小麦高温胁迫显著上升，低温胁迫显著下降，水分胁迫无显著的变化趋势。安徽省冬小麦的气候风险呈现中间低，两头高的分布特征，以沿淮和江淮之间风险最低，淮北北部和江南南部风险较高；淮北地区主要以干旱和低温贡献为主，而淮河以南地区则以雨涝风险为主。融合气候生产潜力和气候胁迫风险形成冬小麦的气候适宜性区划，其空间格局呈南北低、中间高的特征，种植分布格局与气候适宜性的空间匹配程度较高，但有一定的优化调整空间。
关键词:全球气候变化/
冬小麦/
气候生产潜力/
气候胁迫指数/
气候风险/
气候适宜性/
安徽省
Abstract:Climate change has significantly influenced agricultural production in Anhui Province, a main food-producing region in China. For the comprehensive assessment of the beneficial and detrimental effects of climate change on winter wheat, this study established evaluation indices system and method of climatic potential productivity and stress risk. The responses of climatic potential productivity and stress risk of winter wheat to climate change of Anhui Province were then analyzed. Lastly, comprehensive climate-suitability zoning was proposed by considering the effects of climate on winter wheat yield and yield stability. Applying a stepwise evaluation method and dynamic growth parameters produced an estimated average climatic potential productivity of winter wheat of 12 391 kg·hm-2 in Anhui Province. During 1961-2015, climatic potential productivity significantly increased in the region north of the Huaihe River, but deceased in the region south of the Huaihe River. Heat, cold, waterlogging, and drought stresses were analyzed by considering the effects of climatic conditions deviating from the optimal range during winter wheat growth. Based on the surpassing probability of climate stress, this study further assessed the climatic risks to winter wheat. Heat stress on winter wheat increased significantly, but a decreasing trend was found in variation in cold stress. The stress of waterlogging and drought exhibited no significant change trend. The northern and southern regions of Anhui Province were dominated by high climatic risk to winter wheat, but relatively low risk was found in the central region. The high climatic risk in the region north of the Huaihe River was primarily attributed to drought and cold stress, while the southern region was dominated by the waterlogging risk. The climatic suitability of winter wheat assessed with climatic potential productivity and stress risk was lower in southern and northern regions, but higher in the central regions of Anhui Province. The spatial distribution of winter wheat planting was generally consistent with climate suitability, while the planting layout could be further optimized to adapt to the climate.
Key words:Global climate change/
Winter wheat/
Climatic potential productivity/
Climate stress index/
Climate risk/
Climate suitability/
Anhui Province
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